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c3k

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  1. Upvote
    c3k reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yep I´m aware of that, having commanded a Leo2A4 in the Bundeswehr back in the 90s. On german territory all structures are designed with significant safety margin factors of 1.5 to 2X, but I wouldn´t bet on that for ukrainian or russian soil. You are correct, we need an east european bridge grog for that question 😅 Soviet T-tanks were designed to stay into the 40-45 ton margin with a reason.
  2. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Thank you. I may be a pain to deal with sometimes - too many scars of brutal take-no-prisoners armchair fights on the Eastern Internet Front.  But I am really trying to adjust and become a better person. 
  3. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Had a spare time and checked interview of T-80 tanker from the tweet above and I think it is interesting.
    Author:
    — A question about the mobility of the tank: GTD [Gas-Turbine engine] – "hell for suppliers" or a thing? Are they reliable enough? Problems on the fuel march? Smooth running, shaking, acceleration in comparison with diesels. What are the main disadvantages of the T-80 BVM?
    Tankman:
    — It all depends on what role the tank group plays. As practice has shown, the speed of the "box" directly affects its survival. The T-72B and T-72B3 had very impressive losses during the battles in urban areas, while the group of the 80s lost only one tank in 3 months of operation.
    Of course, serving mixed groups is hell for rear echelon, but there is no need for them [mixed groups]. In the later stages of the operation, the machines were used for completely different tasks. There were no complaints about the reliability of the machines, they withstood more than they should have. The movement on the T-80 BVM is much quieter and smoother, which made it possible to carry out lightning attacks.
    The main drawback of the tank is an outdated thermal imaging sight on which any landfill makes excessive background noise, and high fuel consumption.
     
    Author:
    — Nuances in use? Ammunition? Was the ammo put only in mechanized laying [autoloader]? Typical composition of ammo (proportion: HE, HEAT, APFSDS)? Or were they filled in for a specific task? What type of ammunition was used most often? Is the main APFSDS still 3B42?
    ATGM — a suitcase without a handle or a really useful thing? Is it really possible to implement the "long arm" [feature] of our tanks in the conditions of combat in the current theater of operations [Not sure what he means as usually long arm of RU tanks is barrel launched ATGM with range longer than NATO cannons range, but given answer from tanker he might mean indirect long range cannon fire to counter NATO ATGMs]? Have you ever used it? If yes, then the nuances, reliability, were there any failures of guidance and what is their reason? From personal experience: what kind of ammunition would need to be modified or created?
    Tankman:
    — There have never been more than 10 shells in the armor [means inside tank]. From the experience of fighting around Donetsk airport, I know what happens to a combat vehicle when it is packed to capacity with ammunition. When a shell from an RPG arrives from the building above into the commander's hatch,  the turret flies to the 3rd floor of the [Donetsk airport] terminal. Our counterparts decided to ignore this simple truth and were always packed to capacity, for which they were nicknamed among the [men of our] unit "lemming herd".
    There was nothing but Mango at the beginning of the operation, ammunition was spent so quickly that it was not possible to replenish it. As for the "long arm", I will answer as concisely as I can.
    You can, but it is difficult. It is extremely inconvenient to make a calculation in order to hit a hidden standing target (God forbid, also moving), and forces you to invent a bicycle on the spot, based on the terrain features.
    Concrete-piercing types of weapons are urgently needed, taking into account the NATO guidelines for the construction of fortifications.
     
    Author:
    — Observation. Did you perform any tasks at night? How does the commander conduct surveillance at night? How did the sighting equipment manifest itself? At what distances, on average, was it possible to detect the enemy?
    Tankman:
    — Performing tasks in the dead of night by armored formations is effective only when working from closed [hidden] positions. In an ideal scenario, if a tank group is advancing to the assault, it is better to do it at 2-3 o'clock in the morning and reach the point of the beginning of the battle by dusk. The sighting equipment is outdated, needs to be replaced. But for the fight against the tanks of the USSR, although modernized, this is not critical. Thanks to the infantry and the coordinated work of "Akhmat" [I think he means Chechen battalion Akhmat], we always knew where the enemy was and how he moved.
     
    Author:
    — General awareness of the situation. Connection. Communication in combat with an infantry unit? Were automated control systems used (according to the ESU TK type) or all only through radio communication?
    Tankman:
    — I'm not disclosing the communication details.[It may be because Comms are always real embarrassment for Soviet/RU army]
     
    Author:
    — Tank duels? Or are tanks not fighting tanks (with)[It is RU historical meme which caused a lot of arguments in RU mil history community]? Are there any problems with the defeat of enemy tanks? How do you assess the resistance of the T-80BV M to modern anti-tank weapons? What is the opponent's skill?
    Tankman:
    — Tank duels in this theater are very much in demand from our side, and we are trying to impose them. The superiority in reverse speed and the ability to enter the enemy's sides gives us the opportunity not to lose these duels at all ever. And since the Ukrainian tanks are completely packed with ammunition to the point of failure, you do not need more than one hit.
    As for resistance against domestic weapons — a solid 5 [top mark]. As for the Western ones, it is more difficult, since we did not give the opportunity to use them against us. But, it seems to me, tandem shells could be a problem for us, but there is always a good old grid [mesh armor] for this.
    Fortunately for us, competent Ukrainian tankers are gone, most of the experienced commanders and gunners were knocked out as a result of the fighting of the 14-15s.
    Author:
    — And the last question. How did the additional fabric screens perform [The egg shell armor but obviously he means working one not empty]?
    Tankman:
    — By the current moment, there are no more of them left on our tank. [RU Addon side armor packages are easily damaged and tend to fall off quickly]  But, apparently, we were hit with something during the cleaning of the village of "Z.", and they saved us. Works.
  4. Upvote
    c3k reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There will be a democratic Russia, but not as Russia is understood today. Putin is ending his thousand year Reich in only twenty.
    So stand up now, Belarusian, Novgorod, and Belgorod-Voronezh (Don-Volga) Republics!
     
    These new republics, combined with Poland, Ukraine and the Baltics and fueled by copious Western (and JP-KOR) capital will create a medium-to-high tech manufacturing macro-region of some 120 million souls. All the infra and resource basics are there, and the human capital is good.
    For numerous reasons, the global economy needs a second 'workshop' centre to (peacefully, we hope!) counterbalance a sharp-dealing China. This could well be it.
    .... And Muscovy will either get with the program, or else become a geriatric ghost town within 10 years as its resource regions inexorably peel away and turn to China.
    [/Hard yards ahead, but I reckoned we could use a little optimism for a change here]
  5. Upvote
    c3k reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    😚
     
  6. Upvote
    c3k reacted to MikeyD in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Of course my takeaway from the passing helicopter videos is the brief shot of an old weathered door resembles CM 'weathered door' texture art that's in the game. Priorities, priorities.
     

  7. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    RU tactical aviation cannot operate anywhere UKR dug in and because UKR dug everywhere RU Tac Air is weak everywhere.
    When Tac Air cannot support Land Forces the drone support is of critical importance.
    AZER Forces destroyed ARMEN Arty with drones (implying it was war winning tactics). ARMEN Soviet AA made AZER Air ineffective, but AZER drones got arty (implying ARMEN Soviet AA could not deal with AZER drones).[AFAIR it was RU-based AA, it looks like Girkin just do not want to admit RU AA have difficulty with Drones)
    RU extremely lacks recon drones.
    Very few strike drones (but more than they have recon drones but not by much).
    RU uses Caliber missile to do what US does with long range drones.
    It looks like sone Tochka U will be used in masses due to lack of other PGMs (may be exaggeration as Girkin got emotional)
    No comment regarding UKR shopping list - they look like they do not know what to say.
    There are some preparation for mobilization but it means nothing as there is no guaranty mobilization will be called.
    There is secret partial mobilization to make up losses. New formations are being made but there are too few of them. It is not a strategic reserve.
    For 1 Army HQ (there are around 11 armies deployed) there are 1.2 classical division as per number BTG/battalions.
    100,000 additional soldiers will allow only match UKR numbers.
    RU RPO-A flamethrower (rocket propelled one) has real range about 100 meters due to accuracy. Still needs skilled shooter.
    Main fight happens with Arty and mortars. everything short ranges is more or less irrelevant.
    A RU general at Kharkiv asked his forces why they are running and not hitting UKR back with RPO-A (implying it happened during that famous RU collapse). They replied we are being hit with arty with much longer range. [Anecdote to show military incompetence and strange RU believe in magic of RU flame weapons)
    Girkin used to shoot with RPO-A once. Missed from 50 meters. Claims he could hit standing man target with underslung launcher from 50 meters.
    TOS difficult to use due to short range - lightly armoured, kills crew when hit even with mortar round.
    They do not know why RU command does not systematically destroy all bridges in Donbas area. Aviation cannot reach them due to AA. They do not know why Spetznas cannot do it. They believe it is due conspiracy. [Apparently both RU Aviation and Speznas suck]
    Girkin fuming that de facto there is no Flying Zone over UKR. He is claiming foreign planes deliver weapons directly to UKR. Claims there is conspiracy of sort.
    LDNR tries to block RU volunteers from joining LDNR forces. Probably to block spread of information that LDNR forces are poor and poorly controlled cannon fodder.
    RU grabing anybody they can for contract soldier but do not recall reserve officers - probably believe they have enough. They have enough regular officers and reserve officers could be politically unreliable. Ru main concern loyalty and not merit.
    There is not enough modern weapons.
    Kremlin is afraid of forming Ukrainian formations due to their questionable loyalty.
    They believe West will exterminate RU that why they must destroy Ukraine to stop being used by West to kill RU. [No comments]
    Operations take that long time because with current forces it is impossible to win (implying they are just prolonging the war).
    Lack of drones is because nobody cares in MOD and other GovDepts.[Where Girkin was last 20 years? On a different planet?]
    Girkin believe in due time UKR will start striking Crimea but he is not sure.
    RU did not surround Severodonets area before assault due to lack of forces. UKR are fighting back hard.
    When RU cut Artemovsk-Lisichans road UKR counter-attacked and pushed them back. Road is currently under RU fire only.
    UKR terrain is flat terrain cut by recess with rivers and creeks and there are a lot of agricultural roads around. In dry season very easy to put bridges over these rivers and creeks to make another fully usable road to bypass dangerous part. Because of that the supply of UKR group is not cut.
    Because supply is not cut UKR is not retreating from Zolotoe and Gorskoe to Lisichansk.
    Because of that the only way is to frontally assault them.
    Not enough forces to assault Slavynsk - tough defenses. It is large city agglomeration which needs to be assault from everywhere (implying not enough forces)
    RU offence continues not because they hope for success but because they need to show activity. [Remember I talked about Pressure Cooker?] Also because they try to fix UKR forces. Finally if it stops UKR from getting initiative (implying RU will go totally defensive if stops)
    Everybody already realized that current RU offensive cannot destroy UKR donbas group.[It looks like RU forces have to go defensive but cannot accept that and advancing where they can advance due to previous preparations. They simply cannot advance everywhere else even if it will yield better results)
    They do believe that RU is not fighting seriously due to Kremlin conspiracy
    They claim Brigadisation of RU army was to improve rebellion suppression capabilities of the Army. After some time it was canceled but they could not in time create enough proper divisions (Army HQ - divisions ratio above)
    It was better to advance toward Kharkiv. Had better chance of success with much worse moral effect for UKR.
    Current RU offensive did not give RU any strategic advantages except  [Victory] reports on TV.
    They hope Slavyansk would not be attacked at all due to expected heavy losses.
    Without general cleansing of top RU command and government war cannot be won.
    But they will win anyway with or without Putin.
    I am off to bed. Write if you need to clarify anything. If i have time tomorrow I will check it. 
  8. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Calamine Waffles in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Doctrinally, S-300Ps (the ones on wheeled launchers) are usually deployed near important locations like military bases, cities, and infrastructure. Basically, it replaced things like the S-125 and S-75.

    The tracked one you are probably referring to is the S-300V1, it usually protects troop concentrations and forces, and is on tracks for better cross country mobility for that reason. It replaced the 2K11 Krug, and is basically what the Patriot is to the US Army.
  9. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I read a twitter of UKR soldier, who is Switchblade 300 operator, or had a talks with them. and he claims the main problem of this drone is not very good accuracy as expected, because, as I understand, it is hard to guide it directly in the target in final pahse. Also he told the camera quality is very poor and this another, but lesser reason of misses. 
  10. Upvote
    c3k reacted to SeinfeldRules in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Interesting twitter thread on Switchblade 300. Auto-translated the content below so you don't have to:
    "Switchblade kamikaze drones have been used in Ukraine for a long time. Today we will understand how they work and why they are not as effective as they might seem. And what is the best way to replace them. Short thread
    The United States has supplied Ukraine with 700 Switchblade 300 kamikaze drones. This is a lightweight disposable low-power drone designed to destroy enemy soldiers. In fact, this is not even a drone, but loitering ammunition
    The main advantage of the Switchblade 300 is its compactness. It is launched from a small pipe, like a mortar, using compressed air. The entire system can be carried and controlled by one soldier. It can be conveniently brought directly to the position.
    The main disadvantage of Switchblade 300 is disposability. Even without a goal, he cannot sit down. Either a fall, probably without the possibility of a restart, or a safe detonation. This imposes a great responsibility on the operator.
    The Switchblade 300 is a lightweight drone that carries the equivalent of a 40mm grenade grenade. In these frames we see the wreckage after the explosion. Judging by the state of preservation, the power of the explosion is close to that of a hand grenade. This means that they cannot destroy equipment.
    Look at an example of using a drone. Everything happens literally like in a computer game. A huge advantage of the Switchblade 300 is a high-quality camera, which, among other things, allows you to conduct reconnaissance in search of targets.
    But the Switchblade 300 cannot significantly strengthen the Ukrainian army and is generally not suitable for this type of conflict. All because of the high price. One drone (or kit) costs $6,000 dollars. Although Ukraine received them for free, we must take into account the price, because you can buy something else for it.
    For example, the 700 Switchblade 300 is $4.2 million. With this you can buy an M777 howitzer ($3.7 million) and there will still be money left for ammunition!
    Each launch costs a lot. In Afghanistan, the Switchblade 300 has been used to hunt down important militants, groups of bomb-planters for terrorist attacks. It was justified there, because a small drone allows you to attack from the air, while avoiding collateral casualties among civilians.
    But in Ukraine there is a regular army of Russia, the strength of which (like any regular army) is in its mass character and interchangeability. The destruction of individual soldiers is of course useful. But at $6,000, it becomes too expensive.   A much more interesting option is a quadrocopter with hanging ammunition. The same 40-mm grenades from the AGS-17 grenade launcher. Ukrainians have learned how to equip mass-produced Mavic 3 drones with them by printing a bomb launcher and grenade stabilizers on a 3D printer.   Videos of successful discharges of such grenades come across regularly. Here is one of the relatively recent ones. Yes, compared to the Switchblade 300, the accuracy is much lower, the wind can interfere. However, only a grenade is spent. The price of which is hundreds of dollars (or free). Drone may return   Let's compare Switchblade 300 and Mavic 3. Range: 10 km (15 minutes) and 15 km (40 minutes) Ceiling: 150 m and 6000 m Price $6000 and $2000-$4000 (Amazon) At the same time, the Mavic 3 drone is a priori reusable if it is not shot down.   As a result, it turns out that for the same amount you can buy about 2 times more drones with comparable and even reusable weapons. I think the price of a VOG-17 grenade with refinement should not exceed a couple of hundred bucks.   At the same time, intelligence plays a much more important role than the destruction of individual Russian soldiers. And Mavic 3 drones (or equivalent) are better at scouting because they can stay in the air longer and have better cameras. And heavier drones can carry larger charges.   The powerful Switchblade 600 with a warhead from Javelin is quite another matter. He is able to destroy expensive equipment, even if he costs much more. However, the supply of such drones to Ukraine is still only being discussed.   Finally, another video of the Switchblade 300 launch in Ukraine. Still, it seems that launching a quadcopter is faster, quieter and safer for the operator, which means it can get much closer to the enemy"   Fits in line with my expectations for the Switchblade in Ukraine.
  11. Like
    c3k got a reaction from Machor in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Here's the EDM4S:   https://www.armedconflicts.com/Lithuanian-anti-drone-jammer-EDM4S-Sky-Wiper-portable-equipment-REW-t249674
    EW is interesting...especially Russian use. Handheld jammers, like the EDM4S, are difficult to counter. However, they are similar to (early) MANPADs in that they are not kept turned on. They're only used AFTER a drone has been identified. (Manpads are limited by their IR targeting/seeker needing to be cooled, by boiling off cryogenics or using limited battery power.) The question remains...how would the jammer-user know when to use it?
    Stand-off UAVs are undetectable without radar, IR, or staring focal arrays.
    Russian area-jammers are useful to deny areas...  It would be great if they start using them. Nothing is easier than guiding a missile onto an active transmitter. Targeting beacons make for simple solutions. 
  12. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah.
    I should note that this place was occupied by Russia and they only left in 1991, which is relatively recently (god I'm old). We can't match the hatred Ukraine or Poland has for Russia, because nobody can, but I think we're not far behind.
    ...
    As for Taiwan. Since this is my area, I can say that anything happening to Taiwan is bad news for the whole world. China bloodlessly taking over Taiwan is bad, because it would put a lot of modern microprocessor fabs under their control. Imagine China deciding countries or companies that "insulted it", whatever that means this week, aren't getting any modern electronics?
    Anything else than China taking Taiwan peacefully is worse. There' been talks about "how is Russia going to cope with not getting laptops and phones anymore, due to sanctions". If the fabs get blown up, this is everybody in the world not getting laptops, phones, cameras, drones, servers (so businesses can't grow as that often requires new infrastructure) and other things. (*) For about ten years or so, maybe more.
    And if the US defends Taiwan and trade breaks between West and China ... that something I can't even begin to estimate, other than "nobody gets anything".
    So China ****ing around with Taiwan is one of the worst thing that can happen other than nuclear war and doing nothing about climate change, in my eyes.
    Lots of new fabs are being built in US and EU, but those take years and are there to serve demand and not as a replacement - so anything happening to Taiwan few years from now is still bad news.
    (*): The "chip shortage" that cause people to be unable to buy cars was caused more by supply chain optimization shenanigans and is a lesson in fragility and antifragiity - Taiwan mostly makes the high end stuff, so it would impact computers and not cars. As for industrial machines, I'm not much of an expert here, but I think they typically use slightly older high end stuff, but the longer lifetimes would protect them somehow.
  13. Like
    c3k got a reaction from Chibot Mk IX in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Bold.
    Yeah. Obviously, I don't know if the 130mm APFSDS round has a full-length rod or not. But, the "stick" is there in other rounds. There is a limit to length:diameter ratios, especially dependent upon the metal/alloy used and the planned impact velocities.
    Here are some good images, showing how advances in metallurgy have allowed longer rods:
     

     
    Edited to add: that 10:1 is old. I'm seeing research going as far as 20:1 Length:Diameter. So, don't go around quoting 10:1 at the bar.  
  14. Like
    c3k got a reaction from Calamine Waffles in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Bold.
    Yeah. Obviously, I don't know if the 130mm APFSDS round has a full-length rod or not. But, the "stick" is there in other rounds. There is a limit to length:diameter ratios, especially dependent upon the metal/alloy used and the planned impact velocities.
    Here are some good images, showing how advances in metallurgy have allowed longer rods:
     

     
    Edited to add: that 10:1 is old. I'm seeing research going as far as 20:1 Length:Diameter. So, don't go around quoting 10:1 at the bar.  
  15. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh.
    I looked only at the Steam version.
    Ok, I have a purchase to make.
  16. Like
    c3k got a reaction from Artkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Bold.
    Yeah. Obviously, I don't know if the 130mm APFSDS round has a full-length rod or not. But, the "stick" is there in other rounds. There is a limit to length:diameter ratios, especially dependent upon the metal/alloy used and the planned impact velocities.
    Here are some good images, showing how advances in metallurgy have allowed longer rods:
     

     
    Edited to add: that 10:1 is old. I'm seeing research going as far as 20:1 Length:Diameter. So, don't go around quoting 10:1 at the bar.  
  17. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Cederic in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I resisted posting this last week, but it keeps feeling relevant.

    Sorry, culturally brought up to taunt the French at every possible opportunity. Doesn't stop us bailing them out when Germany invade though..
  18. Upvote
    c3k reacted to SeinfeldRules in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well his second thread isn't exactly accurate, as we absolutely have and account for manufacturing deviations between howitzers, and have several processes to identify these differences. We also have differences between the efficiencies of our propellants and the weight of our shells, which is why we segregate them into similar lots and track the differences between the various lots... that's probably the main difference between western and Soviet equipment, not necessarily purely a quality thing (though it plays a factor) but the fact that we more accurately account for those differences... looking at the Tabular Firing Tables of a Soviet D-30 and comparing it to ours, the amount of data they used was noticeably less. We have extremely detailed firing tables that account for many different variables, and I'm not sure if more recent Russian howitzers have improved, but I would argue that's a bigger factor then it being purely a manufacturing issue. Not every Russian howitzer is from the 1980s with completely shot out tubes, but if you have incomplete firing tables you will not be as accurate.
  19. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hello, Misha! Glad to see you again! Are you going to rant about Battlefront morally corrupted westerners on your blog again? Just asking.
    Regarding your usual wild imagination let me remind you that expelling illegal aliens is not a crime.
    Do You know what constitutes a major crime against humanity? You know like Nazi style crime with Nurnberg tribunal?  Russian torture and execution chambers set up in LDNR to pacify and russify local Ukrainians. 
    We talked about it back then but for some reason you seems to be uninterested in this topic. Wonder why?
     
     
  20. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This sounds like WW1 thinking to me, if you replace "tanks" with "infantry" and "ATGM" with "MG"...
  21. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yandex is useless because it is literally heavily controlled. Google is somewhat worse engine for Russian queries. Also, I believe Russian department heavily infiltrated by RU propagandist and so at least somewhat sanitized.
    It is networking - you read liberal guy, he points to another liberal guy, and if you like him you add him to your list of sources. And so on and so forth.  
    By the way, by liberal I mean pro-western and not like US liberal. All pro-western Russians are called liberals by RU propaganda but many of them are very conservative by US standards. 
  22. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    We discussed it 2 days ago. In the Panther tank concept from Rheinmetall, unveiled today at Eurosatory 2022, 7.62 RWS's main purpose is shooting down UAVs, according to this article (in Polish). Prototype is equipped with Iron Fist APS, so presumable it provides the necessary sensors.
    https://defence24.pl/przemysl/eurosatory-2022-pantera-z-ostrym-pazurem-nowa-generacja-leoparda
     
  23. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    We had pre-war re-integration law project, which also was a case for Russia to blame Ukraine in plans of "military resolve of Donbas question", though this plan never said about it. But now reality is completely other and re-integration will be conducted in more tough way. Looking at resistance/SOF actions in Melitopol, Kherson, Luhansk oblast, we will not stop even before phisical elmination of collaborants during occupation and in liibaration process, those who now became "city mayors", "oblast administrations", "police" etc. Voices of HRW will be no more interest. I hope all, who met occupants will have a time to leave with them to their beloved Russia. All other must be condemned according to passed law about collaborationiosm. After 2014 almost all officials, those, who agitate for LDPR and stayed on UKR-controlled territories, were not punished and this also played own role in significant pro-Russian moods even on Ukrainian-controlled part of Donbas. 
    Russians, who came to Crimea for living will go away. Some of them wrote before a war, that even if UKR take back Crimea it will be forced to give them UKR citizenship (and all cherry on tops, like visa-free trips), because in other case this will be violation of human rights. No-o-oo, pals. Don't even dare to dream about this. Also we must to establish "non-citizen" passports like in Baltic states. All who was convicted in unloyality to Ukraine or was condemned for collaborationism must receive such passport.
    There is a movie "Atlantis" was produced in Ukraine in 2019 about problems, which will raise after liberation of Donbas 
       
  24. Upvote
    c3k reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is big exaggregation. As told Zeleban many of locals are indifferent. They are also passive. They are not so much pro-Russians, like Soviet-nostalgy. Somebody said "Russia seized Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk not beacuse the majority of locals were pro-Russian, but because it didn't care". Many of pro-Ukrainain people couldn't leave occupied territories by many reasons. Especially in Crimea, when real number of referendum participators was about 35%. Many of that information, which I post here from occupied territories is information from local social networks users, which with risk to their lives continue to write about situation. And some of them already arrested by LDPR "security".  
    Real example of indifference of Donetsk citizen - this story of 2015. The owner of car-service in May 2014 told to his friend, which suggest him evacuate togeter to Kyiv and move business to there: "I don't care who's flag will be over the city. All will be need in my service here. I got my income in hryvnas, but If Russians come - nothing will change for me, thay just will pay me in rubles. If Americans come - they will pay me in dollars. Even if Chineese come, I will get money anyway, but in yuans". But since some month to his car-service came DPR fighters fron some Russian Caucasian repuplic and told him "Now it's our business, go fu...k away"
  25. Like
    c3k got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Crimea and Donbas
     
    These territories were seized by Russia and then the population (especially Crimea) shifted by importing Russians. (This is why borders matter.)
    Now, if Ukraine regained these territories, there is nothing to prevent them from copying Russia: allowing Ukrainians to flood in while allowing Russian separatists to go to Russia. 
    Russia had 8 years to tilt the demographics. Let's do a poll of the territories 8 years after Ukraine regains their rightful borders. I'll bet it'll be pretty pro-Ukrainian.
     
    Land is NOT people.  The one is immutable, the other is mobile and moldable.
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