LongLeftFlank

Barely UKR forces stabilized more or less situation near Pokrovsk and Selidove, Russians have activated Vuhledar sector again. Already two or three days there are reports about intensive mechanized assaults (not in mass, but continuosly with platoon-size goups). Russians reportedly could breach our lines and their assault groups captured administarttive building of Pivdennoukrainska #1 coal mine, NE from Vuhledar. On other flank Russians today had adavance in Prechustivka area and reportedly seized part of the village.
Several days before Russians captured strong fortified positions near Vodiane, covering coalmine direction. This happened mostly because severe lack of personnel and total chaos in combat interaction - this is a scorge of whole OTUV "Khortystsia", defending southern part of Donbas. 
Backbone of Vuhledar sector is 72nd mech.brigade, but they are two years here without rotations and significant replenishments. And having a lack of personnel have multiple attached units like TD or separate rifle battalions (stricly saying, their remnants). This brings huge chaos in troops control and leads to conflicts between commanders. One company comamnder of TD batatlion wrote month ago their chief of teh staff was beaten by deputy commander of 72nd brigade in front of eyes of staff officers, because TD officer demanded more artillery and drone support for his battalion, which because of unrealistic tasks being put by 72nd brigade and their own battalion commander (formed retired officer), their battalion lost 1,5 companies of personnel killed and wounded for 10 days.  
Here is a map of Russian strike direcrtions. Obviuos their paln to encircle Vuhledar or come in it rear from one of these directions. Maybe Poilet Volant will make a fresh map tomorrow
 

Let's skip the fundamentally non-issues here, please.

😀

Kronar has returned!!!! (you've been warned)

President Lai getting in on the Putin trolling: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/02/if-china-wants-taiwan-it-should-also-reclaim-land-from-russia-says-president
Or, as the local news puts it: https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/09/02/2003823123
Meanwhile the real political headlines in Taiwan are about the latest wave of corruption scandals, which (amongst other things) resulted in the leader of the party that holds the balance of power in the legislature briefly getting arrested over the weekend.
Anyway, as a fan of democracy it feels good to hear a leader still championing the importance of the rules-based international order. On the other hand, as a follower of this war and reader of all y'all's fanfic on what could happen if/when Russia falls, I am slightly less sanguine about Xi's alleged lack of interest in expanding the borders north. And yet, what better way for Lai to present himself as an advocate of the status quo than simply affirming things as they are today?
Just sharing another tea leaf.

Kronar has returned!!!! (you've been warned)

The new Kremlinology:  just as predicted in early 2022 by Galeev, under pressure Putin's inner circle grows ever tighter and tighter, in the ancient absolutist tradition.
https://www.occrp.org/en/investigation/meet-dmitry-mironov-the-enigmatic-putin-aide-managing-the-kremlins-hr-department
"Those guys are not efficient in terms of professional services except for serving as bodyguards, but what is more important, they are absolutely controlled by him....”
Another former bodyguard once described the president’s adjutants to a Russian newspaper as “a select caste of people....
"His trust in the guards was shaped in part by their years of physical proximity."
According to Petrov, an “adjutant can serve [as] a moderator to convey [the] president’s orders and to track their implementation.”
“Through this commission, any appointments can be stopped....”
****
(Galeev 2023) On 'Access to the Body.'
"My grandfather did not sell the pancakes,
Did not blacken the Tsar's shoes,
Did not sing in the court chorus,
Did not jump into princes from the khokhols...
... So how can I be an aristocrat?"

Putin and Kirienko descend from Lenin's assabiyah. Their ancestors were minor, servant-status members of the assabiyah, serving food to Lenin's table. But  members nonetheless.

According to Ibn Khaldun, an assabiyah typically lives for four generations: from the conquest to the downfall. It very, very rarely outlives this span.
****
P.S.  Good luck to VVP's newest Martin Bormann in detecting and stopping this kind of thing....
https://www.occrp.org/en/news/russian-prosecutors-arrest-state-nuclear-official
“Stopping and conducting full scale checks of reactors where equipment from ZiO-Podolsk has been installed is absolutely necessary,” 

Kronar has returned!!!! (you've been warned)

Kronar has returned!!!! (you've been warned)

Kronar has returned!!!! (you've been warned)

Kronar has returned!!!! (you've been warned)

Kronar has returned!!!! (you've been warned)

God save our AD crews and Raytheon company for their Patriot. About dozen ballistic missiles were intercepted during 5 minutes on N and NE approaches to Kyiv. It was too loud and... oouuch. A fragment of missile already was found on the lake park zone near our house. 
Also more than dozen Kh-101 have  attacked the city from S and W. All were intercepted too. Taking to account type of used missiles, the damage is minor - fragments of missiles damaged several buildings (including the mosque), burned four cars, two citizens were slightly wounded
It could be a deadliest strike, since May 2023, when 5 Kinzhals were launched on Kyiv. If we had't Patriot PAC 3, we would be suffer like Kharkiv and Sumy. Alas, we still have only one or two PAC 3 batteries
PS. Air Force Command statistic for this night and morning:
Enemy has launched:
14 Kh-101 - 13 intercepted, one likely crashed
1 unknown type of missile
4 S-300/400 - no interceptions (hit Kharkiv and Kharkiv oblast)
16 Iskander-M/KN-23 - 9 intercepted (Kyiv), rest hit Kharkiv and Sumy
23 Shaheds - 20 shot down, 3 likely suppressed by EW 

Kronar has returned!!!! (you've been warned)

Also, Rybar is celebrating the elections in Germany like a military victory.
 
 

Sorry to interrupt our 'For Some Strange New Definition of Civil Libertarian' debate here, but....
https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/what-the-fall-of-pokrovsk-could-mean
Pokrovsk, a town with a pre-war population of 60,000, is situated west of Avdiivka at a crucial crossroads of multiple railroad lines. It has become a key delivery and railroad distribution hub....
No matter how well-constructed or numerous the defenses are, if they are only staffed at 10-20% of the required capacity, it’s unsurprising that Russian forces are able to overrun them so quickly.
Tatarigami is no alarmist, but he is cautious.
1. Its fall could place all all UA positions east of there en prise, as far as the Sivirsky Donets. Their forced evacuation in turn would bring Russia once again to the gates of Kramatorsk and Liman (i.e. basically they'll have secured nearly all of prewar Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, which along with the land bridge could be used as the basis to claim a Putin victory, however hollow.)


2.  Or else (glass half full version) Sysrski is pulling back in good order to a new strongly fortified line based in solid built up areas. This will also allow the Russians be the ones to get butchered by drones now, while trying to sustain attacks across that largely open countryside they've just occupied. As opposed to up to now, where they have been fighting mainly within 25km of their Donetsk city railhead.

...In short, I am trying to grasp the lethal topography of the new warfare.

Sauce for the damned goose.
The Russians have been openly trying to freeze the Ukrainian population in the dark for 2 winters now, and we're now going into a third. Reap what you sow, b****hez.

The new Kremlinology:  just as predicted in early 2022 by Galeev, under pressure Putin's inner circle grows ever tighter and tighter, in the ancient absolutist tradition.
https://www.occrp.org/en/investigation/meet-dmitry-mironov-the-enigmatic-putin-aide-managing-the-kremlins-hr-department
"Those guys are not efficient in terms of professional services except for serving as bodyguards, but what is more important, they are absolutely controlled by him....”
Another former bodyguard once described the president’s adjutants to a Russian newspaper as “a select caste of people....
"His trust in the guards was shaped in part by their years of physical proximity."
According to Petrov, an “adjutant can serve [as] a moderator to convey [the] president’s orders and to track their implementation.”
“Through this commission, any appointments can be stopped....”
****
(Galeev 2023) On 'Access to the Body.'
"My grandfather did not sell the pancakes,
Did not blacken the Tsar's shoes,
Did not sing in the court chorus,
Did not jump into princes from the khokhols...
... So how can I be an aristocrat?"

Putin and Kirienko descend from Lenin's assabiyah. Their ancestors were minor, servant-status members of the assabiyah, serving food to Lenin's table. But  members nonetheless.

According to Ibn Khaldun, an assabiyah typically lives for four generations: from the conquest to the downfall. It very, very rarely outlives this span.
****
P.S.  Good luck to VVP's newest Martin Bormann in detecting and stopping this kind of thing....
https://www.occrp.org/en/news/russian-prosecutors-arrest-state-nuclear-official
“Stopping and conducting full scale checks of reactors where equipment from ZiO-Podolsk has been installed is absolutely necessary,” 

The new Kremlinology:  just as predicted in early 2022 by Galeev, under pressure Putin's inner circle grows ever tighter and tighter, in the ancient absolutist tradition.
https://www.occrp.org/en/investigation/meet-dmitry-mironov-the-enigmatic-putin-aide-managing-the-kremlins-hr-department
"Those guys are not efficient in terms of professional services except for serving as bodyguards, but what is more important, they are absolutely controlled by him....”
Another former bodyguard once described the president’s adjutants to a Russian newspaper as “a select caste of people....
"His trust in the guards was shaped in part by their years of physical proximity."
According to Petrov, an “adjutant can serve [as] a moderator to convey [the] president’s orders and to track their implementation.”
“Through this commission, any appointments can be stopped....”
****
(Galeev 2023) On 'Access to the Body.'
"My grandfather did not sell the pancakes,
Did not blacken the Tsar's shoes,
Did not sing in the court chorus,
Did not jump into princes from the khokhols...
... So how can I be an aristocrat?"

Putin and Kirienko descend from Lenin's assabiyah. Their ancestors were minor, servant-status members of the assabiyah, serving food to Lenin's table. But  members nonetheless.

According to Ibn Khaldun, an assabiyah typically lives for four generations: from the conquest to the downfall. It very, very rarely outlives this span.
****
P.S.  Good luck to VVP's newest Martin Bormann in detecting and stopping this kind of thing....
https://www.occrp.org/en/news/russian-prosecutors-arrest-state-nuclear-official
“Stopping and conducting full scale checks of reactors where equipment from ZiO-Podolsk has been installed is absolutely necessary,” 

Sauce for the damned goose.
The Russians have been openly trying to freeze the Ukrainian population in the dark for 2 winters now, and we're now going into a third. Reap what you sow, b****hez.

Sauce for the damned goose.
The Russians have been openly trying to freeze the Ukrainian population in the dark for 2 winters now, and we're now going into a third. Reap what you sow, b****hez.

Sauce for the damned goose.
The Russians have been openly trying to freeze the Ukrainian population in the dark for 2 winters now, and we're now going into a third. Reap what you sow, b****hez.

Sauce for the damned goose.
The Russians have been openly trying to freeze the Ukrainian population in the dark for 2 winters now, and we're now going into a third. Reap what you sow, b****hez.

What a hellish battlescape! PTO-Vietnam level vegetation density. And tear gas on top of that.