Gpig

Russian TG claims, during retreating of Russian troops from Opytne toward Donetsk airport, Russian artillery mistakingly hit them, because spotters thought this is Ukrainian forces advance. As claimed 27 killed, 34 wounded, several vehicles destroyed.  
Repeating of 2014 situation, when battalion "Vostok" eliminated almost whole detachment of Russian volunteers "Iskra", retreating from Donetsk airport, passing them as Ukrianian troops, which brokethrough to the city
 

Gepard dropping a (or perhaps 2?) Shahed drone in the dark.
Shahed taken down near Odesa by search light and small arms - clip looks like something from WW2
 

I am just going to walk past without getting involved in this but, should I drop any thing over my shoulder as I go maybe it can go towards drawing a line under this whole sub-thread?
...
Whoops!
Clumsy me!

First evidences of Challenger 2 in action. But from what tanker told it becomes clear, why these tank were in the shadow. 
This guy (he served on T-64, T-72, T-80) says, Challenger has very accurate gun and targeting system, which allows to hit enemy targets from very big ranges. This is tracked "sniper rifle", So, Challengers don't use like other tanks for "сarousel" and infantry support with HE shells. Challengers have a task to hit enemy armor from big distance in shoot&scoot way. Tanker also praises easy of service and repair works in comparison with Soviet tanks as well as these tanks give more chanses to survive after hit or even several hits. 
Tanker also told about tanks increadibly raise infantry morale and if these are western tanks, morale increasing more high, so infantry then is ready to follow them and just kick off the enemy from the trenches with a legs. 
 

This night Russia conducted retaliation combined strike with Shakheds and cruise missiles.
Loud night was in Kyiv too. Over the city and around were intercepted 20 aerial targets. Alas, in Kyiv parts of downed missile killes two citizens, also in Kyiv and oblast several citizens were injured by fragments of broken windows. 
Odesa was under attack two, reportedly 8 missiles were intercepted over the sea.
Total Russians have launched 28 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles (all were intercepted) and 16 Shakeds (15 were intercepted)

Well, all good things can be used in bad ways, sure. All men have a penis, but we aren't all rapists, for example.
Ethnicity also isn't a binary - a person can legitimately be multiple things at once. I'm a Wellingtonian (which comes with a different set of assumptions than being either a Mainlander or an Aucklander, although neither of those distinctions probably mean much outside the country), and a Kiwi (similar but different to Australian), and sort-of British (somewhat similar but also very different to American), and sort-of European (different to Asian or African). None of them completely describe me, but all of them provide some degree of insight, depending on the audience. Theres nothing inherently racist about any of those categories, even though of course Wellingtonians are naturally superior to Aucklanders.

Unit of 3rd assault brigade had a drone, Russians - no. Their "foot recon in force without relying on drone" finised predictably
 

Many thanks to you, @The_MonkeyKing and others here for providing reports on the on-the-ground military situation and tactical dynamics.
I don't do Xwitter ever since Musk made it nonnavigable for nonsubscribers, so threadreaders or copypastes of key points and graphics are greatly appreciated!

Re: possible insurgency
1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.
2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayhem what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.
3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.
4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.
5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.
 
Re: how am I doing?
My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.
For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.
But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.
I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.
I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...
Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.
At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then, there was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.
Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.
I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.
Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.

They sure do, and they rewrite them every few years.

yeah..... macgreggor , with a link to michael savage-  now  that's a real indication of truth, quality, and sanity.    my first use of the ignore button, ever. cool
 
cheers,
rob

This one goes without subtitles but in short, these civilians were trapped for the last 1,5 years behind enemy lines. Needless to say they suffered lack of water, electricity and “bread”. Taken out of the village before being able to call relatives from safety after evacuation. Again, their emotions speak more than their words.
 

I feel like I am pointing out the obvious here but listen to any other first person combat audio. That isn't the sound of a close range gunshot.

Long version of the above.  The tank supporting them backs onto a mine and a twitter post says his HUMVEE was hit by RU artillery.  YT thinks it's russian so subs aren't great.
Edit - this is the same footage as the post above and has interviews, background and drone images to give overall the picture.
 
 

Artillery of 3rd assault brigade has foiled Russian counter-atatck near Andriivka village, Bakhmut area. 2 T-90M, T-80BVM, MTLB, BMP-1 got damages and were abandoned. I hope, all this will be destroyed soon by drones
It's claimed 40 KIA and 25 WIA among Russian infantry, among them allegedly was kiled platoon commander of PMC "Espaniola" - volunteer unit, composed of football ultras, mostly of Moscow 
 

As for fighting for my country: That is precisely the point. I couldn't care less about my country. My country is just a bunch of lines on a map. It was totally random that I was born within the confines of these lines and not others. Three centuries ago my country didn't even exist. It was a number of smaller areas on a map with some dudes constantly wanting to redraw those lines because they didn't have a playstation or something similar and were bored. Except for the random nobleman who "owned" that patch of land, nobody cared about those lines on the map and much less would have wanted to fight for them. Enter Napoleon and suddenly people here were told that they were Germans and that this conglomerate of lines on a map is something glorious worth fighting and dying for, instead of... well, living in a country that was actually more civilized but with less noblemen still having their heads attached to their necks.
In the following years, people were told that, since they were born inside these lines on a map, they had to hate people for being born inside the neighbouring lines on the map. After the inevitable war, the then "Germans" could finally become Germans, united under a (suddenly beloved) nobleman who called himself emperor. The emperor was of Prussian origin and thus the Germans were told that a militaristic society is the best. With great "Hurray!" millions went to the next war... because... was it even about lines on a map? Or just because going to war is so awesome? Millions of dead later - who absolutely enjoyed the experience of dying for their country (if nothing else), Germans had a brief experiment with nasty leftist ideas like, actually voting for stuff and such.
That ended quickly, when Germans were told that being randomly born to the right parents, they were better than people who were randomly born to different people. And also that the lines on that map absolutely need to be redrawn because people with the right parents need more space and those people being born to parents to the east in areas surrounded by lines called "Poland", "Russia" or "Ukraine" wouldn't need that space, anyway. Oh, and Germans were of course told that being born within the right set of lines, the absolute best is of course to fight and die for that set of lines.
After the inevitable war with even more dead, some people wondered whether those "leftist" ideas weren't all that bad, after all. Voting, inviolability of human dignity, etc. But alas, the lines on the map called Germany had been split into two sets of lines. Both sides were told that it was absolutely preferable to kill their relatives on the other side to allowing them to redraw the lines. If that didn't help it was absolutely necessary to just convert both Germanies, and if necessary the whole world, into a nuclear wasteland.
See, we are kind of fed up with this nonsense of "dying for our country". In between we found out that human rights, like e.g. not getting randomly imprisoned and shot without trial, kind of made sense and that our neighbours weren't as bad as we were told. Even the French. Especially the French. As others have pointed out, had the question been if we are willing to fight for freedom, democracy, etc. the answer would probably have been different.
And finally, let me be honest with you: I support my government in sending billions in money and materiel to help you defend your lives, your right to decide for yourselves, your freedom and, yes, your human rights and the possibility to enjoy your lives. Not the random lines on the map called Ukraine.
 

As I said, it’s an old joke. With the explosion of multinational cultures in the U.S., it is even less true now than it used to be. I myself read, write, and speak Spanish on an elementary scale, had French in classes in Elementary School (grades 4 through 6), a year of German in Middle school, two years of Spanish in High School, and a smattering of Japanese when I was stationed in Japan for a year.
Plus, as a Marine, I can cuss in a number of languages.
I, for one, consider the joke, which I suspect to be European based, to be an insult. 
My point was that too many judge based on heritage, unfortunately. It went flat.

Doesn't get more hardcore than that...

I guess my problem with the whole “combined arms is their problem” narrative is that it misses the overall trend lines.  The RA was noted at the beginning of this war as failing to properly conduct combined arms.  This was a little odd as the Soviets essentially invented combined arms at scale and the RA was constructed around combined arms doctrine and concepts.  But we all agreed that “Russia Sux, LOLZ” and watched war porn streams with glee while yammering for “more Leopards!!”.
Now the UA on the offensive is also “failing to coordinate combined arms at scale” after extensive equipping and training by western forces.  So to my mind either two completely separate militaries coming at the problem have both mystically failed to grasp and execute the essentials of combined arms. Or there is something fundamentally changing about the concept of combined arms itself.
As to armchair quarter backing the UA in mid operations, well sure anyone with a podcast and a half decent academic background can nitpick.  It is called friction and it has always been in every war, forever.  Why?  Because human systems are filled with nasty human agency and perception, and error.  To point to a slow operational offensive “because units missed timelines” is weak and amateur analysis.  The biggest problem with trying to get professional assessments is that those able to do them are in the game and not going to speak publicly about what is actually going on.  What that means is that the calculus of this war remains opaque until the thing is over for a few years and we can get access to what actually happened - “How Did This Thing Get Hot?” thread coming hopefully soon.
The rest is academics and pundits trying to promote a bunch of angles.  We heard the same stuff at Bakhmut, Kherson and in the early days.  The fundamental questions are more along the lines of “can the UA translate corrode to breakout without air power as we knew it?”  “Has Defensive Primacy actually happened (again)?” “What the hell is happening with mass?” 
This is not pro-Ukrainian copium either.  The reality may be simply that offensive operations in this war do not work anymore.  We could be looking at the beginning of a frozen conflict line a la Korea.  But why offensive operations may not work is not because a UA unit had their map upside down anymore than when the RA stopped using their tanks as tanks and made VBIEDs out of them.
That all said, my own assessment is that this still feels like shaping.  I nice little feel up before heading to paradise.  It lasted for at least two months at Kherson.  I suspect we have the rest of the summer with this weird Grade 9 gym dancing until something gives and the UA drops the hammer and goes for it.  In fact we have not seen a full scale formation offensive yet - as has been noted - the reason is more likely because conditions have not been set.  Now another big question is “are the UA shaping or leg humping?”  Well given the C4ISR differences between the two forces my money is still on operational shaping, but we will have to wait and see.

So hopefully both Girkin and Navalny will have another live debate quite soon. Now about who sleeps near the toilet.

Not bad, not bad at all.
 
 

LOL!
 
 

6 hours ago (from my posting) BBC News gave Twitter a swift kick in the pants re the Ukraine war.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66113460

Follow up…ok, I think I have got the only solution that makes any sense: Putin and Prig are in love but cannot admit it to each other or themselves.  Only a rom-com scenario makes any sense in what we have seen - hear me out (and yes I am sober as I type this) 
Prig and Putin have known each other for years - him a working class ex-con trying to go straight, Putin a golden haired princess who is so lonely at the top.  They have been sharing stolen glances and smiles for years but neither has the courage…their worlds are too far apart.  Prig is desperate to get Putin to really see him, instead of a boom box outside in the rain he rolls up to Moscow with T90s and MLRS.  It was a romantic gesture of the highest order.  A demonstration of power and masculinity while being vulnerable at the same time.
Putin, like a sexy fox, flees to St Petersburg to hold up with a couple girlfriends…he can’t cope with all this - it is too much too fast.  He is into Prig but the man is both intoxicating and terrifying.  Putin throws out threats but he really does not mean them, inside his heart is pounding - should he?  He mustn’t.  He is so confused right now.  Should he call in airstrikes or run out on the M4 into his man’s arms?
Prig is wailing into the night with an electric guitar (and AD systems), he is in love so hard it hurts.  He bashes out With or Without You by U2…Russia holds it breath, the two star crossed lovers both in love and hate at the same time.  They resent each other for making that love into something that threatens to consume them both.  Finally Lushenko, a girlfriend to both from way back I the day talks them both off the ledge - “you are both love struck fools, stop now before you say something you cannot take back!”
Prig realizes it first.  Putin is a fox to be lured and must feel in control.  Prig has come on too strong.  He dials it back, goes back to the dorm and tells all the guys “he totally scored” but inside he is tortured by the waiting game.  
Putin has fooled himself that he is back in charge but deep inside knows it is too late.  He says strong words but everyone at work knows the truth - FFS would they just do it already.  Their love is self-destructive and wholly doomed but neither can look away - it is a storm that must happen….to be continued.