Holien

A question for our American friends and any who might understand the DC politics... You know who I am looking at...

We are getting more and more evidence that the Biden team are really asking Ukraine to stop with the Russian refinery attacks?

Why?

 
Russian Oil is not making up much of the market, it has an effect in cutting Russian spending so why?
My poor old brain can only think of the following.
It could be they don't want to give folk the idea of how easy it is to do. But that genie is out already. The box is open... Lamp rubbed et al...

It could be that they know Israel is not going to act in a restrained proportionate manner with Iran and the whole world supply is likely to be disrupted.

If Iran decides to go full in the oil refineries in the area could be taken down very quickly with Iranian backed drones...
Any ideas on a postcard to the usual forum...

1) Basically every industrial country has far more energy generation capacity than it needs to ensure continuous production - even if several plants need to be taken off the grid for maintenance or simply damage repairs. 
2) Outside of the planned over-capacity, older power plants are not immediately demolished when a newer one is finished. They remain for years as a "strategic reserve". And due to improved technology energy companies are almost always building something newer and more efficient somewhere, so there is a continuous rotation from older to newer.
3) Special government programs like in Germany, where renewables are being pushed, means that a lot of conventional power plants have been taken off the grid, but are not destroyed. Germany gets between 30% and 40% of its daily energy from renewables (and growing), and has roughly the same capacity, mostly in coal plants, dormant and ready to be fired up. 
Ukraine's economy before the war used 125 TWh per year, which has dropped significantly due to the war to something below 100 TWh.
Germany alone has likely 200 TWh of unused capacity next to the 500 to 600 TWh it currently needs per year.

In about an hour I will be drawing electric from the grid at 0p.
This last weekend we had too much power and I was actually paid to store energy. EV and house batteries were topped up and I got paid!!!
The UK right at the moment is pumping water back uphill in Norway...
Europe is well on the way to having a pretty good integrated energy system and during high wind high sun we easily generate more than needed.

I believe that Ukraine is also part of the European energy net (as of last year?), so as long as transmission lines remain to a town or city, Europe can just pump energy directly into Ukraine's grid.
Most EU countries have significant unused power generation capacity. 
The smaller, mobile generators provide better local independence, of course.

Just FYI Europe is trying to deal with the attacks on Ukraines energy infrastructure...
https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-sends-emergency-aid-ukraine-after-further-attacks-energy-infrastructure-2024-04-09_en
Long term and near term if Ukraine can get Wind Turbines and Solar (all time cheap prices on solar) a lot of what Russia is trying to do will be undone and Ukraine will be in a way better position after the war as it will not be reliant on Russian Gas or Fossil Fuels.
The Energy market is changing and it will remove the stranglehold of the Axis of Evil as some folk like to call them..

Just FYI Europe is trying to deal with the attacks on Ukraines energy infrastructure...
https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-sends-emergency-aid-ukraine-after-further-attacks-energy-infrastructure-2024-04-09_en
Long term and near term if Ukraine can get Wind Turbines and Solar (all time cheap prices on solar) a lot of what Russia is trying to do will be undone and Ukraine will be in a way better position after the war as it will not be reliant on Russian Gas or Fossil Fuels.
The Energy market is changing and it will remove the stranglehold of the Axis of Evil as some folk like to call them..

Children are always innocent. Simple.
Not their fault where they are born.
I strongly suggest you pause your posts on this topic.. 
I have deep respect for you and understand your pov but IMO it's not something for this thread.
I will PM you tomorrow.
 

I suggest it's not a good idea.
A targeted response against those responsible rather than creating any more terrorists by killing innocent people. 
Bombing people to the stone age has already escalated this to a level that was uncalled for..

Children are always innocent. Simple.
Not their fault where they are born.
I strongly suggest you pause your posts on this topic.. 
I have deep respect for you and understand your pov but IMO it's not something for this thread.
I will PM you tomorrow.
 

I suggest it's not a good idea.
A targeted response against those responsible rather than creating any more terrorists by killing innocent people. 
Bombing people to the stone age has already escalated this to a level that was uncalled for..

Sounds like Perun is listening 
 

Children are always innocent. Simple.
Not their fault where they are born.
I strongly suggest you pause your posts on this topic.. 
I have deep respect for you and understand your pov but IMO it's not something for this thread.
I will PM you tomorrow.
 

Deleted, no need to feed more off topic matters 

Folk listen to Steve, let's keep this on track...
Please.

Children are always innocent. Simple.
Not their fault where they are born.
I strongly suggest you pause your posts on this topic.. 
I have deep respect for you and understand your pov but IMO it's not something for this thread.
I will PM you tomorrow.
 

I suggest it's not a good idea.
A targeted response against those responsible rather than creating any more terrorists by killing innocent people. 
Bombing people to the stone age has already escalated this to a level that was uncalled for..

I suggest it's not a good idea.
A targeted response against those responsible rather than creating any more terrorists by killing innocent people. 
Bombing people to the stone age has already escalated this to a level that was uncalled for..

You do realize that this is basically the same propaganda that Putin uses?
And that is the seed of how war crimes happen.

I suggest it's not a good idea.
A targeted response against those responsible rather than creating any more terrorists by killing innocent people. 
Bombing people to the stone age has already escalated this to a level that was uncalled for..

I suggest it's not a good idea.
A targeted response against those responsible rather than creating any more terrorists by killing innocent people. 
Bombing people to the stone age has already escalated this to a level that was uncalled for..

Drone wars - UKR FPV intercepts Russian recon drone similar to DJI Matrice-30
 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-thanks-germany-new-patriot-system-critical-time-2024-04-13/
 
Germany will transfer a Patriot battery and additional missiles to Ukraine "immediately" (so, soonish).

IEA Warns Attacks on Russia Plants May Disrupt Diesel Market
The flurry of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s oil refineries risks disrupting global markets for petroleum products, the International Energy Agency said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-12/iea-warns-attacks-on-russia-refineries-may-disrupt-diesel-market
Really? We are deeply concerned. 
Alas, today's night UKR drones couldn't reach Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov oblast - local authorities claimed four drones were shot down/supressed. One fell down on territory of refinery, but didn't cause any significant damage

It's became knowingly Russia used new missiles to hit Trypillia thermal power plant in Kyiv oblast two days ago. Recently it was considered were launched cruise misiiles Kh-101 type only, but now remains of Kh-69 were found. 
 

Kh-69 it's a deep modernization of "air-surface" Kh-59M missile, turned it into compact mid-range cruise missile similar to Storm Shadow. Kh-69 in first time was introduced in August 2022 and on Dubai Airshow in 2023. The missile has GLONASS/GPS guidance and DSMAC. GLONASS antennas unit "Kometa-M" is shielded in lower semi-sphere for better protection from EW systems.
Kh-69 has a range 290-400 km and carries 310 kh warhead (so at least 100-120 kg HE). Most bad feature for our AD is extreme low altitude flight profile. The missile can fly on 25-70 m which makes it too hard target for timely spotting by radars. Kh-69 developed for perspective Russian fighter Su-57, but probably Su-30/34/35 also may carry this missile.
It's known about three episodes of Kh-69 usage: Feb 7 2024, Feb 18 2024 (launch from Su-57, but missile hit the empty place in the field) and Apr 11 2024 (Trypillia thermal power plant was destroyed)    

Probable Kh-69 layout in Su-57 fighter