Holien

Lebensraum, well that is a golden oldie.  Good old fashion greed and conquest.  Well at least they are telling the truth now and not trying to dress it up as anti-Nazi, anti-NATO, anti-whatever…it is a pure and simple land grab.  

Various tidbits I can point out:
- There was a "flying wing" drone that fell within the city limits during the recent attack near Yevpatoriya. It looked undamaged (downed by EW?) and fell right next to the main office of RNCB bank (biggest bank in Crimea that uses old Privatbank infrastructure). The drone fell less than 1.5km away from where I was at the time.
- The morons cannot scale their production of propaganda BS school books. They've issues orders/laws that cannot be implemented, yet again. It is said that it will take years to print thier new "unitary" schoolbooks. Imagine them trying to switch their economy to the "war footing" as some want ;D That would be even funnier.
- There's a special, dedicated NDA they force upon people (first responders?) after missile/drone strikes that starts with words "becasue of the current geopolitical situation" that prevents them from talking about anything.
- The fuel prices continue to rise locally, and people are really noticing. There's quite a lot of rambling about it, and even some organized (and, strangely, authorised) street protests. Did not see much details yet about the latter.

Steve. This link points to potential domestic turmoil in Russia as the economy falters
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/driving-towards-brighter-past-brezhnevisation-russias-internal-market

At the operational level; sure. But at the intimate tactical level (you know, the level that CM deals with), minefields were kind of a non event. They explain why particular actions were fought where they were fought, but they didn't really influence the actions themselves.
SNIPE was fought 'on the far side' of the devil's garden, not in it.
8th Armd Brigade's inept reproduction of the Charge of the Light Brigade was 'on the far side' of the devil's garden, not in it.**
Tel el Eisa was fought ... actually, nowhere near minefields.
Alam Halfa was fought on the near side of the minefields.
Ruweisat Ridge (battle no.s 1 through to about 6 or 7) was fought before the minefields were a thing.
El Mrier didn't feature minefields.
etc.
There was some fighting for defensive positions on the night of 23 Oct, but those were mostly walkovers (= boring from a CM perspective). Most of the opening night consisted of extended lines of infantry plodding forward behind barrage lines across 2-3km of rocky desert in the dark, hoping like hell they didn't step on any 'slpodies. There were numerous platoon-company sized actions during that night to reduce defended localities, outposts, and listening posts (which could make for some interesting byte-battles), but as a designer there would be no play value in simulating the approach plod through the garden. Just cut to the good bit where the contact actually occurs. Then there is no need for breaching, and no need for artillery even since the barrage has buggered off into the distance.
All of which is to say that a tactical level look at Alamein without breaching is at least as do-able as a tactical level look at OVERLORD without gliders or landing craft.
 
** in the process clearly demonstrating that armour has been obsolete since October 1942!

It depends what its being used for. I somehow doubt the US DoD is using tabletop to simulate the effectiveness of new weapon systems - for that I expect they are using some type of sophisticated Lanchester model, run over thousands of iterations, comparing baseline and upgrades and various permutations, giving probabilities and confidence intervals and all the rest of that jazz, to show whether the Skyrim MkII modA is worth the investment, what the rough scale of issue is likely to be required, and what consumption of munitions will be like.
But for proof of concepts and operational plans - "tabletop" is the way to go. But that's not chits-on-a-hex-map and a six-sided dice tabletop. It's commanders standing around a birdtable, talking through the plan so they have a clear idea of time and space synchonisation, what everyone is doing at any given point in the battle to come, and where the key assets are by phase. You don't roll a dice to see whether 2 Platoon of C Company is able to take Hill 109. You just say "2 Platoon of C Company takes Hill 109". Then the int officer says what the most likely (or most dangerous) reaction by the enemy to losing Hill 109 is (based on doctrine, and posture, and known resources, &c), then the friendly commander outlines what his counter move is (or isn't; maybe ignoring the enemy at this point is what he chooses to do and 2 Platoon up on the hill will just have to take care of themselves). And so on, and so on.
Calling it "wargaming" is kind of a misnomer - it's more like "battle talking". But "wargaming" is what we're stuck with, even though it has approximately nothing in common with what most people think of when they hear the term.
 
Edit: I'm working chronologically through a backlog, and now see @Bil Hardenberger has already addressed this. The TL;DR of this post is 'read that one'
Edit2: and @The_Capt TL;DR 'read those ones'

Battle for Andriivka is much more than final fight for this 500 x 500 m area. There was hard way through entrenched tree-lines and fierce Russian counter-attacks on far approaches to the village. The same about Klishciivka and Kurdiumivka. 

Right a bit more on topic and I was lucky enough to see Sir Anthony Beaver being interviewed by James Holland at "We Have Ways Fest" this weekend and he was being asked about the research into his Stalingrad book.

An excellent interview and might be on line at some stage. Some points that caught my attention that tie into the current war.

He mentioned that during his research at the Russian archives that he stumbled upon all the reports back to Stalin and that Stalin had demanded to know the whole truth warts and all... This was a gold mine for the book and gave a pretty good view of the reality of the situation to Stalin.

I wonder if x years’ time will we find that Putler is being told the truth warts and all?

Did it really help inform Stalin’s choices? We think Putler does not know the truth and he might do things differently but maybe now he knows the truth but he can’t change his choices and as noted is doubling down in the hope things will change…

Sir Anthony also mentioned how poor the food was at the canteen of the research place – his Russian researcher used to say he was too spoiled. But what he did get a laugh from is that he used to get excellent hot dogs from a certain person who fell out of the sky a while ago… That was a name we were not expecting to pop up in a Stalingrad talk…

Sir Anthony also made a big point about the Soviet brutality and how this really has not changed from WW2 to modern times. He talked about the feral starving Russian kids that were tempted by Germans for crusts of bread to go and fill their water canteens at the river. The Russian snipers were ordered to kill the Russian kids….

Quite a few other horrific examples were given and nothing has changed in Russia in regards to brutality…

A couple of tankers Waitman Beorn and Hamish de Bretton-Gordan gave at times an interesting talk and touched upon issues in Ukraine.

On a WW2 note a (then)18 year old Tank driver by the name of Richard Aldred gave a very entertaining talk about his experience in Normandy driving a Cromwell…

One to try and find on the WWW when it might appear…

Here is a newspaper article about the veteran...
https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/history/day-cornwall-veteran-aged-98-7472744

 

What air defenses? ;D
Apperently, there's less and less of them. BBC was pretty quick to report the local (my hometown) events, so you may wanna check that out.
No air raid warnings, no nothing. Nothing is happening, as always. Just bavovna and smoke. Even the announcer at the train station skips the usual "be observant and careful, careful and observant" this morning. How come, I wonder?
 
ps: I'm okay, and the windows are fine, for now.

Someone called Musk smart a few pages back, “useful idiot” might be a better term. Interesting read in The Atlantic on how Putin pulls his strings.
https://ukrainetoday.org/2023/09/12/what-russia-got-by-scaring-elon-musk/
Wouldn’t be surprised if Budanov has added him to his list of people to deal with later.
 

Local Sevastopol TG claims, refering to sources in administration and Black Sea Fleet, that according last information there were 2 maritime drones and 8 missiles. UKR aviation resource hints there was airstrike, so Storm Shadow/SCALP were used. Russians initially reported about combined strike of converted S-200 and Storm Shadows. According to last info (unofficial for now) only two drones and two missiles were intercepted.
Number of victims of workers raised to 11 killed and 31 wounded. Landing ship and submarine allegedly destroyed, two more ships damaged, but level of damage is unknown.
More, after the strike, there was information about UKR diversion group operates in Sevastopol,so police and Army patrols were directed to find them. Police passed one of army patrols as sabateurs and opened fire. In result of skirmish 3 soldiers and  1 policeman were killed.

There is a second video form the press briefing. Sadly only auto generated subtitles are available. Made a short recap.
- German-French brigade is currently providing most of the instructors for the training hub north with Pz.Btl. 203 providing tank specific training
- Danish trainers had the most recent knowledge of the Leo1
- German and Dutch trainers had to reacquire their knowledge as the Leo1 was phased out earlier than in Denmark
- the press asked if Ukrainians would benefit from the delivery of such a old tank and Marlow repeats all the things that were discussed in this thread
basically the Leo1a5 is a 2a4 with thin armor compared to the Russian stuff the tank is able to reverse 😀, has a thermal imager, fully stabilized main gun and better crew ergonomics.
- until the end of May 15000 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained
- goal to train soldiers was raised to 30000 by the end of November 2024 but Gen Marlow is sure they will hit the mark much earlier
Looking at the AMX 10RC I'm under the impression the Ukrainians know how to employ Stug's on steroids.
 
As @holoween and the @The_Capt said on Bundeswehr vehicles they are for camouflage reasons, mostly made of rubber or some sort of natural fiber like burlap.

This is 100% not a Martian colonization thread. No, wait, 1000% not.

Right a bit more on topic and I was lucky enough to see Sir Anthony Beaver being interviewed by James Holland at "We Have Ways Fest" this weekend and he was being asked about the research into his Stalingrad book.

An excellent interview and might be on line at some stage. Some points that caught my attention that tie into the current war.

He mentioned that during his research at the Russian archives that he stumbled upon all the reports back to Stalin and that Stalin had demanded to know the whole truth warts and all... This was a gold mine for the book and gave a pretty good view of the reality of the situation to Stalin.

I wonder if x years’ time will we find that Putler is being told the truth warts and all?

Did it really help inform Stalin’s choices? We think Putler does not know the truth and he might do things differently but maybe now he knows the truth but he can’t change his choices and as noted is doubling down in the hope things will change…

Sir Anthony also mentioned how poor the food was at the canteen of the research place – his Russian researcher used to say he was too spoiled. But what he did get a laugh from is that he used to get excellent hot dogs from a certain person who fell out of the sky a while ago… That was a name we were not expecting to pop up in a Stalingrad talk…

Sir Anthony also made a big point about the Soviet brutality and how this really has not changed from WW2 to modern times. He talked about the feral starving Russian kids that were tempted by Germans for crusts of bread to go and fill their water canteens at the river. The Russian snipers were ordered to kill the Russian kids….

Quite a few other horrific examples were given and nothing has changed in Russia in regards to brutality…

A couple of tankers Waitman Beorn and Hamish de Bretton-Gordan gave at times an interesting talk and touched upon issues in Ukraine.

On a WW2 note a (then)18 year old Tank driver by the name of Richard Aldred gave a very entertaining talk about his experience in Normandy driving a Cromwell…

One to try and find on the WWW when it might appear…

Here is a newspaper article about the veteran...
https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/history/day-cornwall-veteran-aged-98-7472744

 

Right a bit more on topic and I was lucky enough to see Sir Anthony Beaver being interviewed by James Holland at "We Have Ways Fest" this weekend and he was being asked about the research into his Stalingrad book.

An excellent interview and might be on line at some stage. Some points that caught my attention that tie into the current war.

He mentioned that during his research at the Russian archives that he stumbled upon all the reports back to Stalin and that Stalin had demanded to know the whole truth warts and all... This was a gold mine for the book and gave a pretty good view of the reality of the situation to Stalin.

I wonder if x years’ time will we find that Putler is being told the truth warts and all?

Did it really help inform Stalin’s choices? We think Putler does not know the truth and he might do things differently but maybe now he knows the truth but he can’t change his choices and as noted is doubling down in the hope things will change…

Sir Anthony also mentioned how poor the food was at the canteen of the research place – his Russian researcher used to say he was too spoiled. But what he did get a laugh from is that he used to get excellent hot dogs from a certain person who fell out of the sky a while ago… That was a name we were not expecting to pop up in a Stalingrad talk…

Sir Anthony also made a big point about the Soviet brutality and how this really has not changed from WW2 to modern times. He talked about the feral starving Russian kids that were tempted by Germans for crusts of bread to go and fill their water canteens at the river. The Russian snipers were ordered to kill the Russian kids….

Quite a few other horrific examples were given and nothing has changed in Russia in regards to brutality…

A couple of tankers Waitman Beorn and Hamish de Bretton-Gordan gave at times an interesting talk and touched upon issues in Ukraine.

On a WW2 note a (then)18 year old Tank driver by the name of Richard Aldred gave a very entertaining talk about his experience in Normandy driving a Cromwell…

One to try and find on the WWW when it might appear…

Here is a newspaper article about the veteran...
https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/history/day-cornwall-veteran-aged-98-7472744

 

Right a bit more on topic and I was lucky enough to see Sir Anthony Beaver being interviewed by James Holland at "We Have Ways Fest" this weekend and he was being asked about the research into his Stalingrad book.

An excellent interview and might be on line at some stage. Some points that caught my attention that tie into the current war.

He mentioned that during his research at the Russian archives that he stumbled upon all the reports back to Stalin and that Stalin had demanded to know the whole truth warts and all... This was a gold mine for the book and gave a pretty good view of the reality of the situation to Stalin.

I wonder if x years’ time will we find that Putler is being told the truth warts and all?

Did it really help inform Stalin’s choices? We think Putler does not know the truth and he might do things differently but maybe now he knows the truth but he can’t change his choices and as noted is doubling down in the hope things will change…

Sir Anthony also mentioned how poor the food was at the canteen of the research place – his Russian researcher used to say he was too spoiled. But what he did get a laugh from is that he used to get excellent hot dogs from a certain person who fell out of the sky a while ago… That was a name we were not expecting to pop up in a Stalingrad talk…

Sir Anthony also made a big point about the Soviet brutality and how this really has not changed from WW2 to modern times. He talked about the feral starving Russian kids that were tempted by Germans for crusts of bread to go and fill their water canteens at the river. The Russian snipers were ordered to kill the Russian kids….

Quite a few other horrific examples were given and nothing has changed in Russia in regards to brutality…

A couple of tankers Waitman Beorn and Hamish de Bretton-Gordan gave at times an interesting talk and touched upon issues in Ukraine.

On a WW2 note a (then)18 year old Tank driver by the name of Richard Aldred gave a very entertaining talk about his experience in Normandy driving a Cromwell…

One to try and find on the WWW when it might appear…

Here is a newspaper article about the veteran...
https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/history/day-cornwall-veteran-aged-98-7472744

 

Right a bit more on topic and I was lucky enough to see Sir Anthony Beaver being interviewed by James Holland at "We Have Ways Fest" this weekend and he was being asked about the research into his Stalingrad book.

An excellent interview and might be on line at some stage. Some points that caught my attention that tie into the current war.

He mentioned that during his research at the Russian archives that he stumbled upon all the reports back to Stalin and that Stalin had demanded to know the whole truth warts and all... This was a gold mine for the book and gave a pretty good view of the reality of the situation to Stalin.

I wonder if x years’ time will we find that Putler is being told the truth warts and all?

Did it really help inform Stalin’s choices? We think Putler does not know the truth and he might do things differently but maybe now he knows the truth but he can’t change his choices and as noted is doubling down in the hope things will change…

Sir Anthony also mentioned how poor the food was at the canteen of the research place – his Russian researcher used to say he was too spoiled. But what he did get a laugh from is that he used to get excellent hot dogs from a certain person who fell out of the sky a while ago… That was a name we were not expecting to pop up in a Stalingrad talk…

Sir Anthony also made a big point about the Soviet brutality and how this really has not changed from WW2 to modern times. He talked about the feral starving Russian kids that were tempted by Germans for crusts of bread to go and fill their water canteens at the river. The Russian snipers were ordered to kill the Russian kids….

Quite a few other horrific examples were given and nothing has changed in Russia in regards to brutality…

A couple of tankers Waitman Beorn and Hamish de Bretton-Gordan gave at times an interesting talk and touched upon issues in Ukraine.

On a WW2 note a (then)18 year old Tank driver by the name of Richard Aldred gave a very entertaining talk about his experience in Normandy driving a Cromwell…

One to try and find on the WWW when it might appear…

Here is a newspaper article about the veteran...
https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/history/day-cornwall-veteran-aged-98-7472744

 

One of my more favoured aphorisms is "for every complex problem there is a solution that is simple, obvious, and wrong."

Right a bit more on topic and I was lucky enough to see Sir Anthony Beaver being interviewed by James Holland at "We Have Ways Fest" this weekend and he was being asked about the research into his Stalingrad book.

An excellent interview and might be on line at some stage. Some points that caught my attention that tie into the current war.

He mentioned that during his research at the Russian archives that he stumbled upon all the reports back to Stalin and that Stalin had demanded to know the whole truth warts and all... This was a gold mine for the book and gave a pretty good view of the reality of the situation to Stalin.

I wonder if x years’ time will we find that Putler is being told the truth warts and all?

Did it really help inform Stalin’s choices? We think Putler does not know the truth and he might do things differently but maybe now he knows the truth but he can’t change his choices and as noted is doubling down in the hope things will change…

Sir Anthony also mentioned how poor the food was at the canteen of the research place – his Russian researcher used to say he was too spoiled. But what he did get a laugh from is that he used to get excellent hot dogs from a certain person who fell out of the sky a while ago… That was a name we were not expecting to pop up in a Stalingrad talk…

Sir Anthony also made a big point about the Soviet brutality and how this really has not changed from WW2 to modern times. He talked about the feral starving Russian kids that were tempted by Germans for crusts of bread to go and fill their water canteens at the river. The Russian snipers were ordered to kill the Russian kids….

Quite a few other horrific examples were given and nothing has changed in Russia in regards to brutality…

A couple of tankers Waitman Beorn and Hamish de Bretton-Gordan gave at times an interesting talk and touched upon issues in Ukraine.

On a WW2 note a (then)18 year old Tank driver by the name of Richard Aldred gave a very entertaining talk about his experience in Normandy driving a Cromwell…

One to try and find on the WWW when it might appear…

Here is a newspaper article about the veteran...
https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/history/day-cornwall-veteran-aged-98-7472744

 

Right a bit more on topic and I was lucky enough to see Sir Anthony Beaver being interviewed by James Holland at "We Have Ways Fest" this weekend and he was being asked about the research into his Stalingrad book.

An excellent interview and might be on line at some stage. Some points that caught my attention that tie into the current war.

He mentioned that during his research at the Russian archives that he stumbled upon all the reports back to Stalin and that Stalin had demanded to know the whole truth warts and all... This was a gold mine for the book and gave a pretty good view of the reality of the situation to Stalin.

I wonder if x years’ time will we find that Putler is being told the truth warts and all?

Did it really help inform Stalin’s choices? We think Putler does not know the truth and he might do things differently but maybe now he knows the truth but he can’t change his choices and as noted is doubling down in the hope things will change…

Sir Anthony also mentioned how poor the food was at the canteen of the research place – his Russian researcher used to say he was too spoiled. But what he did get a laugh from is that he used to get excellent hot dogs from a certain person who fell out of the sky a while ago… That was a name we were not expecting to pop up in a Stalingrad talk…

Sir Anthony also made a big point about the Soviet brutality and how this really has not changed from WW2 to modern times. He talked about the feral starving Russian kids that were tempted by Germans for crusts of bread to go and fill their water canteens at the river. The Russian snipers were ordered to kill the Russian kids….

Quite a few other horrific examples were given and nothing has changed in Russia in regards to brutality…

A couple of tankers Waitman Beorn and Hamish de Bretton-Gordan gave at times an interesting talk and touched upon issues in Ukraine.

On a WW2 note a (then)18 year old Tank driver by the name of Richard Aldred gave a very entertaining talk about his experience in Normandy driving a Cromwell…

One to try and find on the WWW when it might appear…

Here is a newspaper article about the veteran...
https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/history/day-cornwall-veteran-aged-98-7472744

 

My guess the Boer war and WW1?
Am I right....
 Am I Am I....
 
DARN TOO SLOW.... Doh!!!
 

My guess the Boer war and WW1?
Am I right....
 Am I Am I....
 
DARN TOO SLOW.... Doh!!!
 

Don’t sully a wonderful thing.
No we are not there yet but ISW dropped its daily:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-10-2023
Interesting comment here:
”Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov stated on September 10 that Ukrainian forces will continue counteroffensive operations into late 2023.[4] Cold and wet weather will affect but not halt active combat, as it has done in the first 18 months of the war. Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley stated on September 10 that Ukrainian forces probably have 30 to 45 days of “fighting weather” left.[5] Seasonal heavy rains and heavy mud in late autumn will slow ground movements for both sides, and low temperatures impose a variety of logistics challenges. The start of such seasonal weather is variable, however.[6] While weather considerations will affect Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, they will not impose a definite end to them. A hard freeze occurs throughout Ukraine in the winter that makes the ground more conducive to mechanized maneuver warfare, and Ukrainian officials expressed routine interest in exploiting these weather conditions in winter 2022–2023.[7]”
I was wondering at this last winter - what are the UA winter warfare capabilities?  A winter breakout offensive once the ground freezes would be awesome.  The RA likely struggles the most in the cold due to logistical strain so the opportunity could be there but there are definitely challenges.  We assumed the offensive would pause with the weather but maybe the UA has other plans?

I am a veteran of two wars and have likely forgotten more about war and warfare than you based on your contributions to this thread.  
I see that you are taking a “self-imposed” vacation and will come back “when proven right”.  Well problem with that is that you have never really taken a clear position on anything.  At one moment you talk about “diplomacy and negotiation” the next “4 weeks to victory”.  You have not demonstrated any real research or citations in your contributions nor any level of recognizable expertise on the subject matter.  My, and other attempts, to explain are “too complicated” so you dismiss them.  Then when I sit down and actually try to unpack your position and why your assumptions are flawed, I get insults and name calling.  No facts.  No counter analysis.  Just “be quiet”.
So when you come back (and I am sure you will), what exactly constitutes you “being proven right”?  Have the courage to take a position and clearly define it and stop these politically motivated drive-bys.  The way you have ambiguously framed your position does not allow for you to be wrong.  If the war is still going on you can declare “I told you we should have negotiated/stated/invaded”.  If the war ends, you can claim it is because the US finally did whatever you were saying all along.
So I am calling you out.  Clearly give us three strategic “must dos” in order for this war to end.  Clear and measurable strategic actions the US and West must carry out in your deeply informed opinion.  Don’t weasel around it or try to build in wiggle room.  Here let me show you how it is done:
1.  Commitment to win the war. The US/West must continue to own the escalation ladder in this war.  They must continue steady, predictable and clear pressure on Russia through programmed support to Ukraine.  This commitment must be unambiguous and apolitical, we are in it until this is done.  No back doors or side deals.  No renormalization until Russia is out of Ukraine completely.  This is a slow steady path with no sudden movement as we thread a needle between uncontrolled escalation and stagnation/freezing conflict.  This is a long war of attrition and must be navigated as one…it will go slow until the RA collapses militarily or there is a major political shift in Russia.  Either way direct confrontation between US/West must be avoided at all costs - no hard fast win.  Further, victory must be clear and unambiguous as well.  No soft-wins for Russia just to end this. Russian defeat must be clear.
2.  Commitment to win post-war.  Reconstruction and post conflict defence and security mechanisms are a must.  No grey areas or open clauses.  We commit to rebuild Ukraine and pull it into a real security alliance that will guarantee long term security and investment.
3.  Engineer Russian negotiations with its own defeat.  Russia cannot become a failed state, yet it requires regime change.  That is very tricky to manage at the best of times.  A path to renormalization must be developed but it cannot ignore the egregious warcrimes and violations Russia has committed.  This will lead Russia out of being pulled entirely into a Chinese power sphere and provide some multipolar power manoeuvre room.
There you go.  I am on record with my position and advice.  Now if the US goes in hard next week and Russia withdraws with its tail between its legs I will be proven wrong.  If we can suddenly negotiate an end to this war that makes everyone happy, I was also wrong.  So what have you got?

I have largely ignored you because it is pretty clear that you are not in fact interested in actually learning anything on this forum.  However, in reality this is an honest question that some lurkers may also be asking.  Why can’t the US, or NATO or an alliance in between “win this war in 4 weeks and just end this brutal war?”  Don’t need an essay really:
-  Put the nuclear escalation to the side for arguments sake but we will come back to it.
-    A US direct incursion into Ukraine or this war is going to drive a massive amount of support into Putin’s arms, to the point he might actually get full mobilization support.  A fully mobilized and galvanized Russia is a scary beast particularly since they will likely be heavily backed by both China and Iran as they will see the entire expansion of the war as a chance to defeat the US by proxy.  So now the US has four weeks to push Russia out of Ukraine, could they do it?  Probably?  Would it end the war…no way.  It would likely expand it as Russia gears up for a serious fight because now it has reason to have one. The totality of your position is that you are in fact pointing madly at a “limited war” but your solution is “more limited war”…oh wait maybe you are not talking about a limited war.
- ok, to defeat Russia, truly defeat them, it means not simply driving them out of Ukraine.  It means total defeat of Russia as a nation.  The destruction of Russian Will to fight.  This means going into Russia itself and removing its ability to generate that Will.  So we are talking invasion, defeat in detail and occupation…of Russia.  The military force the US would need to do that is well outside the US military current envelope, we are talking millions of troops.  Let’s pretend Russia can be occupied, it is a big country (look at a map).  You now need to hold it until you can install a friendly government…and remember you brought up total war.  So the US and most of NATO would now need conscription to sustain a force that large…you feeling strong?
- “But we will stop at the border”, sure and Russia will now simply reload and incite as much violence and discontent in Ukraine…now filled with US troops.  What possible negotiated end-state is there where Russia can still function while massing for WW3? No, you cannot give Russia time to reload…that would be really dumb.  So now you would need to contain Russia…in the 21st century…with China on one of its borders…and Iran.  That is a massive problem.  The state sponsored terrorism issues alone will be intense.  Again, this is limited measures that won’t “end” anything but risk a lot worse.
- Back to occupation, the risk of a resistance from hell is incredibly high.  See the many lengthy posts on that issue.  Very angry and well supported by various powers an occupied Russia could make Iraq look like a weekend outing.  Oh wait, there is more,
- Russia might fly apart while you are trying to occupy it.  Not known for its shining unity, occupation could see Russia itself fly apart and the the US is trying to manage a civil war…and a possible insurgency.
- Ok, now the obvious one…WMDs.  Let’s pretend that Russia won’t use them on good old “Merican” boys as they counter attack into Ukraine and encroach on the Russian border.  They sure as hell will if the US invades Russian soil, which we have to now.  And even if they don’t there is no way in this universe we can guarantee we can secure them all.  Now we may have lose WMDs of many flavours lose in this mess.
To put it more simply and in words with as few syllables as I can: To defeat  Russia and end this war in 4 weeks the US would need to break Russia.  To break Russia is to engage in a major war, possibly global.  It would break the UN, it would shatter NATO because I can think of at least a dozen nations that would get off that train quickly.  Economically it would break the system as we are talking markets staring down the barrel of nuclear Armageddon.  Anything short of that is just more limited war with even slimmer margins than we are already on.
So when you declare that “the US could end this thing in 4 weeks” all you are doing is loudly announcing just how much you do not understand.  If you honestly want to learn, maybe stop typing and start reading more.