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Holien

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  1. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Chudacabra in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    The PLO did this in the mid-1990s and I don't believe that any of the sovereign countries around Israel have this in their constitution, but correct me if I'm wrong. The Palestinian Authority has been just about the only player to live up to its obligations and has been consistently willing to negotiate. It has also been systemically undermined by Netanyahu's successive governments, who backed Hamas as a means of dividing and discrediting the Palestinians. Smotrich was quite explicit about this approach in 2015: “The Palestinian Authority is a burden, and Hamas is an asset. It’s a terrorist organization, no one will recognize it, no one will give it status at the [International Criminal Court], no one will let it put forth a resolution at the U.N. Security Council.” Netanyahu just boasted about specifically not pursuing a two-state solution. Smotrich has also been quite explicit about his desire to formally annex at least parts of the West Bank. 

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/08/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-nimrod-novik.html I thought this was an excellent interview with a former Shimon Peres advisor, where he quite clearly made the case that Israeli security cannot be predicated on the oppression of the Palestinians and that it is in Israel's interest to provide a viable future for the Palestinians.

    Hamas and many sitting Israeli cabinet ministers have used similar genocidal rhetoric. I don't find it to be a very difficult position to feel that neither Israelis or Palestinians in positions of power should openly consider genocide or ethnic cleansing. This is not some age old conflict between Jews and Muslims, but rather a product of a modern political project. However, it is long past due to figure out a political solution that allows Palestinians and Israelis to live together in peace. Both sides have bugled negotiations (sometimes at the same time) and both sides have done terrible things, but who can possibly think that a dramatic escalation in violence will break a cycle of violence? Even Israel itself shows that while there's certainly room for improvement, there's also no reason why Israeli Jews can't live together with Arab Christians or Muslims. It's a political problem that requires a political solution. I think there are three viable options (one secular state, two federated states, or two fully sovereign states), so best get to figuring it out.
  2. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Chudacabra in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    Israel is not a democracy. It is an ethnostate with some democratic institutions within its 1967 borders, but it lacks equality of citizenship, which is a basic tenet of democracy. Judicial oversight of the legislature was also greatly weakened recently, although I suspect that will be reversed once Netanyahu is ejected from office. Palestinians citizens of Israel do enjoy far more political rights than Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank.

    But Israel has adopted a one state solution for the lands of historic Palestine. Israel exercises full sovereignty from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea in three very distinct ways. There is 1967 Israel, which is perhaps best described as an illiberal democracy. There is the West Bank where Palestinian control has been reduced to about 18% of the territory and is heavily bisected by Israeli settlements and areas under full Israeli military control. This is similar to the bantustans of apartheid South Africa. What kind of democracy has roads only for certain ethnicities or subjects some citizens to military justice and others to civil justice? 

    Then there is Gaza, which is besieged by Israel aided by Egypt. While it was not actively occupied or colonized , it is effectively part of Israel as Israel has full control over its external affairs and borders. It has now been subject to one of the most intense bombardment campaigns in history, which is framed as a war, but is really a counter-insurgency against a domestic force.
    Ultimately, Israel will need to reckon with its foundation as a colonial project that emerged in the 1890s largely as a response to European anti-Semitism and that was established at the expense of Palestinian Arabs of Muslim and Christian backgrounds with somewhat mixed support from Palestinian Jews. It is imperfect as an example, but the reconciliation process in Canada is at least an acknowledgement of past harms towards indigenous people and could serve as a model. What if instead of spending billions upon billions to destroy Gaza, that money and resources were distributed as compensation in lieu of a right to return for Palestinian refugees displaced in 1948? An imperfect option, but an imperfect compromise to address past harms is a far better solution than a worsening status quo.

    I feel like people often get distracted with inane discussions of whether Israel has a right to exist. Israel will continue to exist unless it collapses under the weight of its own contradictions. It is a nuclear power with a lavishly equipped conventional military that has an absolutely overwhelming amount of power in the region. As it has shown in Gaza, it can do more or less whatever it wants. The real question is what will happen to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza? Any political solution would be better than the status quo, be it one secular state for all its citizens, two federated states (something like the A Land For All proposal - https://www.alandforall.org/english/?d=ltr) or two separate, fully sovereign states. If there is one lesson to be learned from October 7th, it is that the safety of Jewish Israelis cannot be predicated on the continued oppression and dispossession of Palestinians. There are lots of examples of multi-religious or multi-ethnic states or of neighbouring states of different religions or ethnicities living beside each other, often for the better. There is no inherent reason why this place should be any different.
  3. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Chudacabra in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    Call me crazy, but I usually blame the party committing flagrant war crimes (like ransacking hospitals on the basis of transparent lies, murdering women sheltering in a church, shooting a man with a developmental disability for the crime of carrying lollipops, killing their own hostages who they thought were civilians, assassinating journalists on a mass scale, permanently settling civilians in occupied territory, and so on and so on...). I find it very strange that supporting Israel seems to translate to supporting a very particular course of action designed for maximum cruelty and collective punishment. Israel's political and military establishment has been incapable of articulating a clear or achievable goal, and also has no long-term plans for a peaceful future. 

    https://www.972mag.com/israel-political-weakness-military-hamas/

    I thought this was a great piece highlighting that despite Israel's military might, it is politically weak and immensely unimaginative. Netanyahu's successive governments have proved incapable of articulating anything beyond a worsening of the status quo, not to mention their strategy of supporting Hamas as a means to divide and discredit the Palestinians backfired spectacularly. October 7th was a classic case of blowback, where actions taken to weaken your enemy end up coming back to bite you in horrible ways.
  4. Thanks
    Holien reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    The world is what we make it.  That is kinda the point of international laws of armed conflict in the first place.  The major point of disagreement we seem to have is that if one side is not following the rules then it is acceptable for the other side to toss them out the window as well - this is simply not true.  Israel has to live in this world once this war is over.  
    Hamas is not and never was an existential threat to then state of Israel anymore than AQ was to the US.  They are capable of horrible behaviours and doing terrible things to Israeli citizens - I do not dispute the atrocities one wit.  But Israel is not on some edge of existence that justifies this behaviour.  In fact the only group who fits that description is Hamas and I am pretty sure we can agree their behaviour is not acceptable either.  Their warcrimes are also crimes.  Any Hamas PoWs need to be investigated and prosecuted for their part as well.  This is going to be pretty damned hard to do righteously if the IDF is also conducting illegal wartime activities.  Or are you basically saying “how things are” is to simply execute them all?
    However, Israel is a modern democracy.  A member of the international community.  It does not get to toss out the rule ok anymore than Russia.  Interestingly, no one has responded to this point on Russian warcrimes in Ukraine.  Are we just going to let those slide?  I mean Russia likely can come up with all sorts of “human shields” and “legitimate military targets” as well.  Russia will claim that it “had to deal with the world as it was, not how they wanted it to be” at Bucha.  This is what I mean by application.  We cannot go after Russian warcrimes, or whoever does this stuff next, if we simply shrug when the IDF is straying “terrorists-watcha gonna do?”
     We had restrictive ROEs in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  We had them in the Gulf War.  We had them in Kosovo.  I am not sure where the myth came that we somehow simply ignore the LOAC in conflict but it is simply not true.  I have been part of a killchain and targeting prices and the LOAC is a primary consideration all the time.  We do not “wink and nod” at it because “lawyers”.  Every commander on ops knows the ROEs and is held responsible to enforce them…no matter who we are fighting.
    Finally, things are getting so bad that even Israel is beginning to doubt itself:
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/the-death-toll-from-an-israeli-airstrike-in-central-gaza-rises-to-106-palestinian-officials-say-1.6700908
    So for context in this case the IDF will need to show that the target they hit was worth 106 civilian dead…in a refugee camp…that they directed civilians to move to.  Was this a rocket system?  Was it the Hamas leader?  There are scenarios where this would be acceptable but that bar is very high.  If this was a dozen Hamas shleps with rifles…this was an unrighteous shoot.  Now we cannot say definitely what this was or was not but we can sure as hell question it.  We do have that right and responsibility.  
     
     
  5. Upvote
    Holien reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    Well it kinda is.  A furious illegal response is…illegal.  Now if we just want to throw out the law book because “furious” well then that will have very large repercussions.  For example, we will see no prosecution of Russian war criminals in that war.  Nations could in fact go right back to business as usual with Russia once the war is over because war crimes are no longer a thing.  China can pretty much do whatever because we have shut down the LOAC.
    Or do we mean only our enemies have to be accountable for war crimes?  Us and our allies can get a by if we are really angry?  There has been ample evidence that the IDF is out of control, at least on a few occasions.  Investigations will need to be done and if anyone did act illegally they will need to be prosecuted.   Same as soldiers who did do dirty in Iraq.  Revenge, even righteous, does not excuse someone from conducting illegal shoots or indiscriminate killing of civilians.  
    So which is it?  Do we have a law of armed conflict or not.  Because if not then legally Russian can start using chemical weapons…and send them to Hamas for that matter.  I mean if you want anarchy just be damned sure you understand what that looks like.  What I am seeing on this thread looks a lot like schoolyard justice, and that is not a basis for international law and order.  Or national law and order for that matter.
  6. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Updated information about UKR and RUS losses in Kherson oblast along Dnipro (not only in Krynky area) on both banks of the river
    Russia lost 133, Ukraine 18 (also 11 RIBs and boats, not included to the table)
    Ukrainian losses:

    Russian losses (likely only one Su-34 was counted, because despite even Russian side confirmed loss of more than one jet, but photo evidence was only for the one bomber)

  7. Upvote
    Holien reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So reviewing ISW and it hits upon particular peeve of mine with respect to western strategic mindset:
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-part-2-—-military-threat-and-beyond
    If you read these toe pieces what jump out is how binary the analysis it.  We either fully liberate Ukraine and somehow live in a safer world - the impacts on Russia of a total defeat and possible follow on impacts of that on regional security are not explored.  Or we lose Ukraine entirely.  The analysis of losing Ukraine entirely is solid and I do not dispute.
    What I dispute is the lack of any negotiation space.  All war is negotiation.  Most wars in history have ended in some form of negotiated end-state.  We tend to highlight and fixate on the maximalist wars because they had very “hot” impacts and make for good drama.  But most wars end somewhere in the middle - no one gets 100% of what they wanted.
    So a major shortfall in the west has been a clear articulation of strategic end-states.  I am not proposing we give Russia “outs” or off-ramps but we have not even painted a vision of what a post-war order will look like.  What are our conditions for renormalization with Russia?  What is the post-war reconstruction plan?  How quickly can Ukraine be pulled into NATO?  What do we plan to do in the event of a Russian collapse?  The sum total of western declaration has been “support Ukraine to the end” without defining what that end in fact is or is not.  By failing to do this we tie victory to the map and not human conditions.  That is dangerous as we know the map may not demonstrate what we need to win, nor does it indicate a loss.
    Now I strongly suspect that this thing has been mapped out by staffs in the backfield and all we hear is the party line.  However, this war may end with a complete Russia failure.  The RA may turn around and March on Moscow.  A military coup in Russia is not good news.  The last time it tore the country apart.  This time it could make things worse not better.  The absolute military victory being championed by ISW (and others) will very likely mean complete chaos in Russia itself.  We have never had a nuclear power completely fall apart below the state level.
    Many simply go “meh, we will deal with it.” But then lose their minds when we ask “well what if we wind up with less than we want”.  This is called strategic scope eye: a dangerously singular focus on one certainty while neglecting the rest of the problem.
    We should absolutely support Ukraine.  We should push them as much  as we can.  We must bring them into a collective defence umbrella - it is the only proven deterrence to Russian aggression.  We must rebuild Ukraine.  We must also map out what renormalization with Russia would look like.  What are the enticements /inducements?  
    Finally “victory” may be a continuing work in progress.  We may have to accept partial victory now and work to a broader one later.  And accept Russia is going to do the same.  I keep coming back to this, in the middle victory spaces: there is “declared victory” and there is “real victory”.  Russia can declare whatever it wants.  Putin could be pushed back to pre-22 lines and still cry victory because he held onto Crimea and Donbas.  He will definitely crow and declare total victory if he holds onto what he has right now.  So freakin what?  Russia failed to achieve its strategic goals - undeclared and declared.  
    As to “real” Ukrainian victory: if Ukraine is in NATO and seeing hundreds of billions in reconstruction as it is being fast-tracked into the EU in 2025 - how is that not a strategic victory?  By 2030 Ukraine could be an Eastern European powerhouse with a larger economy and military industrial base (as it schools the entire western world on how to fight a modern war) than it had before the war.  Russia will likely be sulking and planning…much as it has for the Baltics for decades. But it will be doing it under sanctions as a Chinese satellite.  It may not even be a great power by that point.  It ability to project regional threats will be diminished.  It will face a decision to renormalize with the west or continue to decline.
    Is all that going to be a massive strategic defeat if we are stuck at the current conflict lines?  Was Korea a major strategic defeat for South Korea?  We have to deal with NK but we have shown we can…for years.  Is all this a major Russia strategic victory?
    This is the problem with binary end-states, they ignore the realities of war.  The reality is that parties enter into the conflict with a certainty - a version of reality without doubt.   Those certainties are in collision and irreconcilable with the opponent.  The “war” is that violent collision.  As it progresses, a third certainty is created and each party must negotiate with it. War is as much about negotiation with oneself as an enemy.
    To be clear, I am not advocating withdrawing support to Ukraine in any way shape or form.  I am not arguing appeasement with Russia.  What I am asking is that if we have run out of military option space - what are we willing to live with inside that third certainty?
  8. Upvote
    Holien reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It serves multiple purposes.
    Overseas, he can project to the global South that he's trying to be reasonable. He can provide fellow travelers in the US like the odious David Sacks/Elon Musk with propaganda that covers the same ground. Internally within Russia, he can present any agreement that retains the landbridge to Crimea as a solid win.  
    In terms of geopolitics, Putin is hedging a bit. Trump winning in November and saving Russia's va banc bet is no sure thing. Aid to Ukraine from the US looks shaky and perhaps an overture gives opponents ammunition. But...maybe not. Maybe Biden wins solidly in November and gets a Democratic House with a GOP Senate that's basically friendly to aid. 
    In that scenario, no attempt to lock things in where they are now would have been a serious error. 
  9. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    WP, NYT and some other influent media in last time fulfilled with scepticism and defeatism about development of war for Ukraine. It seems "party of appeacement" on the West and Russia achieved some touch points and now actively push agenda about "peace for any cost", "Ukraine must agree to freeze the war to not lose more territories".
    Ukrainian information field on background of failed offensive and current crawling advance of Russian army overflowed with bots and real accounts, who sow panic and defeatism moods, call to open the borders and resist to mobilisation measures, pushing the takes about "Ukraine is slavery state with force mobilization like in N.Korea" (most of these bots and useful idiots you can spot via N.Korean flag near nickname in twitter), many posts "why we have to die for corrupted dictatorship of Zelenskiy?" or "We are free people and the state hasn't any right to force us go at the war"
    These two sides invested huge money in powerful media and PsyOps campaign to dismoral UKR society and force Ukrainian politics to sit at the negotiation table on Russian formula "peace in exchange for refuting from occupied territories". And they already achieved some successes. Coming large mobilisation already seriously scare many people. Percent of population, who would agree to freeze a war even by the cost of territories rised almost on 10 %  (bigger growth in western and central oblasts) and now is about 19 %
    And these Putin's offers of peace is just a cunning turn for public opinion and taxpayers: "Look - Russia offers a peace for Ukraine, which inevitable will be defeated anyway. How this generously! How Putin is great! How he wants to stop this bloody war! But look at this pathetic Ukraine! They want to continue this hopeless war. Their president doesn't spare own nation and will fight to last Ukrainian for own illusions to defeat Russia! So, why we have to pay for these new deaths! Let be a bad peace, than a good war! Let make friendship and make money togrther again!"  
  10. Upvote
    Holien reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeesh. 
    On a serious note, Nikolai Patrushev is/was engaging in a bit of dynastic estate planning by killing off Prigozhin. His sons (Andrei and Dmitry) and his kvost have well developed post Putin plans: 
    https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2022/08/patrushev-family-lays-heavy-hand-arctic-energy
    Keep an eye on these folks. They will be serious contenders when Vlad pops his clogs. 
     
  11. Upvote
    Holien reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sure, if all Russia was using and producing were SU-34s.  And how on earth do you have any proof at all “that they were able to increase production”?  
    My problem with your post is that it is skewing facts and ignoring context.  This is the hallmark of an agenda, not objective analysis.  You are pushing and promoting a point.  You are cherry picking information out of larger context - when you cite information at all - in order to shore it up.  Russia is losing nearly twice as many A/C as it can manufacture annually.   I am sure if this were the facts about the Ukrainian airforce you would be shouting from the rooftops “Ukrainian Airforce is losing!!”  But when it is Russia - “Russia is unstoppable and building more aircraft than it loses”.  
    My problem with your post(s) is that they are biases and promoting to the point of outright mis/dis information.  I don’t know what your angle is and frankly am past caring.  What needs to stop is you coming here, dropping “informed opinion” like it is gospel.  Do some leg work.  It is called Google…use it and back up your positions.  The Russian Airforce is in serious trouble.  Why?  Because they have much larger problems than Ukraine.  Russia has a big @ss sky to try and control.  They are worried about NATO (among other things).  Losing that much hardware and not being able to replace it is not a good news story for them.  In fact it is a strategic indicator that, shockingly, Russia is not getting better as a result of this war…they are getting worse.
    Edit: https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/08/the-uncounted-losses-to-russias-air-force.html
  12. Upvote
    Holien reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok this has to stop.  Look dude, I know you are squarely in the “all is lost” camp but there is a point where this becomes disinformation.
    https://wavellroom.com/2023/02/17/russian-combat-aircraft-sanctions/
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
    You state things as fact with zero proof or citations to back it up.  You can see this?  You see how your world view is skewing everything?
    So best estimates (and pony up some credible info if you have it) is that Russia managed to produce 22 military aircraft in 2022.  Assuming they did the same in 23 (and that is a leap) then they are at about 44 aircraft produced.  They lost over twice that number in this war…that we can see and confirm.  The reality is likely higher.
    You get a hall pass because of the situation you are in.  But you need to back up your “facts” with actual facts.  “I heard it at the grocery store” has limited traction.  Do you have some secret access to Russian aircraft production scheduling?  If so, post it!  
     
  13. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It looks like at last some of "big chiefs" in AD Command has took responisibilities for risk and ordered to move Patriot close to frontline. Reportedly there is too bad weather for Lancets and Orlans now in that area, so moving to positions and deployment weren't spotted by enemy.
    All Su-34 were shot down in Kalanchak area (57 km SE from Krynky), if this eyewitness is writing a true
    Kalanchak. About 30 minutes ago ours shot down 3 "sushkas". We have seen this with own eyes. We need a festive dinner
    First reaction of Russian TGs
    Voyevoda: Do not trust khokhol information about 6 "200th" crew members. This is not a true
    Fighterbomber: Yes, according to my information we have a combat loss. The reasons are bing clarified

    Since some time:
    Kiril Fyodorov: Everything has already been found. And not one.
    Fighterbomber: Everybody has already been taken. Live and dead. May a soil be as a sky for them.... Preliminary this was Patriot work 

  14. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It looks like a battery of Patriots has arrived from Germany. Three Su-34s shot down today in the Kherson region
  15. Upvote
    Holien reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm not personally a fan of the Colorado decision for pragmatic political reasons but I think folks need to relax a bit. First off, Trump's trial in DC is going to provide ample evidence of an attempt to overthrow the election (in other words, the government) and the legal reasoning in Colorado is based at least in part on precedents set by Gorsuch. This is not some radical move...in most other political eras it would be uncontroversial. Indeed...it shouldn't be controversial now given that Trump is literally talking about being a dictator if he wins reelection. I would have preferred that they waited later in the cycle. That's all. 
    As to civil war...I've heard talk of it for years, have seen the fascists marching down my streets, threatening my neighbors (in one particular instance on 1/5, they told one with a pride flag on his lawn "We will come back for you later."). What I will tell you is that once they actually went after the state...on 1/6...and were ejected from the Capitol they got the absolute crap beaten out of them and have never returned to DC. I think an actual armed insurgency would be the end of them, quickly and decisively. Fort Sumter's never turn out well.
    So...not bring it on exactly but I'm not losing sleep over it. 
  16. Upvote
    Holien reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    No I don’t think that was the point of his post.  He wasn’t calling for a direct evidence of every Israeli death.  He was highlighting that there was no evidence of Hamas’ most alleged brutal crimes.  I think his point was that over inflation of that brutality is being some used to give license to IDF potential warcrimes - which frankly are starting to stack up.
    In the end I would not be surprised if Hamas did some pretty horrible stuff and the reports of 7 Oct are actually true to a greater or lesser extent.  It also does not matter.  Warcrimes do not justify more warcrimes legally or morally.  A beheaded Israeli baby is just as dead as a Palestinian one how had a JDAMs dropped on them.  And we have seen plenty of dismembered Palestinian children…hell it is with our morning coffee now.
    The IDF should be held to higher standard than Hamas.  They are supposed to be the good guys.  Now we have reports of the IDF shooting aid agencies, their own people and vigilante actions against Palestinians in the West Bank.  As soon as we cannot tell who the good guys are anymore we are basically at Sudan where @sshats on both sides are waging war illegally.
    This of course is a problem with sustaining international support and at some point even the US is going to draw back.  Like when pictures of starving Palestinians are flashed up on the news, or another massacre.  What is truly disturbing is that our primary democratic partner in the Middle East not only completely dropped the ball leading up to 7 Oct, they are driving the follow on operation into a crater.
    We are finally hearing reports that the Israeli justice system is starting to get engaged (you know, the one Netanyahu tried to castrate).  So we may see some action. But right now Israel looks out of control and is making things so much worse.  
  17. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Seedorf81 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Update on Wagnercolonel Salikov:
     
    He was in Donetsk-region when MH-17was shot down. He says that some form of competition was going on between the Wagner-group and the separatists.
    A few weeks before the downing of the MH-17, the Wagnergroup had shot down a Ukrainian army-plane in Luhansk-region and they got a lot of credit for that.
    So, according to Salikov, the separatists decided that they had to shoot down a Ukrainian plane too, but through mistakes/stupidity they shot down MH-17.
    (I never heard of this competition-story, so could be that he 's a credible source.)
    https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/item/voormalig-wagner-officier-in-nederland-om-zich-bij-strafhof-te-melden-bevelen-voor-oorlogsmisdaden-kwamen-rechtstreeks-uit-het-kremlin/
  18. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Seedorf81 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Dutch newsprogramme yesterday: (Link in next "update"-post.) My summary/translation, so mistakes on me.
     
    Former Wagnercolonel Igor Salikov arrived in the Netherlands. He wants to testify at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.
    Served in Russian army, later in Wagnergroup. Fought in different African countries as well as in Syria. Also "involved" in Russian actions against Ukraine, 2014 and 2022.
    Witnessed many crimes and stated (wrote a deposition for the ICC) where the orders came from. Straight from Russian ministry of defense and sometimes directly from the office of Vladimir Putin. Also testifies that GROe and FSB were heaviliy involved in illegal operations.
    Salikov was involved in Ukraine since 2014 and stated that part of his job was to support the separatists. In Donetsk the referendum was "a forgery", that only succeeded because of "bribery, blackmail and fraud". He also mentions the blatant lies that soldiers were told before the 2014 invasion in Ukraine/Crimea.
    Furthermore:
    - killing/murdering of civilians,
    - laying mines on purpose in civilian area's (Many children dead because of that.),
    - Torture and killing of prisoners of war,
    and, most important I think, he witnessed the abduction of the Ukrainian children in februari 2022. "Convoys of FSB cars and vans, filled with children." (According to Yale-universiy about 6000 children were abducted.)
     
    Reason for his defection seems to be that he was ordered to execute civilians, but refused to do that. Was about to be court-marshalled for that, but managed to flee Russia. "Lost faith in Russian cause".
    Of course, credibility, and possible own warcrimes, from this former colonel need to be investigated. His account of the FSB abduction of children was corroborated by other witnesses, it seems.
    Follow-up: The importance of his testimony lies in him possibly being an "insider witness" (ICC phrase) with knowledge of "The chain of Command".
     
  19. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    Note the pictures lower in the article of the NON burned out vehicles with MSF in large red letters on the hoods and the MsF logo and name along the side. Plenty large enough to see. These are recognized worldwide, never change, and the burned out vehicles at the top are that way BECAUSE the IDF came back after the fact and destroyed them... at the clinic MsF runs, which is a known location. 
    So no. No passes. No excuses. Note also that MsF took 2 weeks to make sure their accusations were accurate.
    Dave
  20. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    Quoting myself because I finally remembered to go look again for the account, detailed here in a statement by MsF. There seems no doubt here that they were deliberately targeted, on more than one occasion, and their mission and also evacuation obstructed. 
    I'm surprised this did not get more press than it did at the time. Perhaps because when they issued this statement they had carefully investigated it themselves for 2 weeks so it was "old news". 
    I'd be very surprised if anyone accused MsF of having any agenda, or harbouring any Hamas sympathizers. They do good work all over the world, often in danger to themselves, and they are CLEARLY recognizable. Everyone knows who they are without ambiguity. 
    Well, I'm giving it press, I guess, for what that's worth. Again it falls in the category of making things worse, not better.
    https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/latest/msf-convoy-attack-gaza-all-elements-point-israeli-army-responsibility
    Dave
  21. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Krynky bridgehead. Next TOS-1A, which was spotted by SOF was destroyed by night drone bomber of 36th marines brigade
    Situation in Krynky still heavy for Ukrainian troops, but completely catastrophic for Russian troops
    Just some Russian TG messages from there:
    They are killing our guys. No EW. They [command] just wait something. 

    Krynki. Situation is very hard. Khokhol's artillery fu...ng hit us, we can't supress it, drones like a bees. 
    My friend called yesterday. There is meat grinder. Arty and drones hit like fu...g hell. On Tuesday a company in 130 men came there on positiosn. And yesterday so far they were withdrawn to the rear. Only 18 men left.
    Tell anybody about bodies evacuation.
    There is too hard in Krynki. We can't go out within three days until it's quiet.
      
    It's obvious, why NYT issued two days ago pessimistic article with interview of "UKR wounded marines", who told about "useless operationin Krynky", "huge losses". Russia invested huge money now to PsyOps.  Putin on own briefing told "Russian troops has only several sanitarу losses in Krynky, when Ukraine - dozens of killed"
  22. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Are we there yet!!!

  23. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This night according to Russian reports, they shot down about 30 UKR UAVs, which attacked Rostov, Lipetsk and Volgograd oblast. 
    Later became knowingly part of UKR frones have struck Morozovskoye airfield in Rostov oblast, where is deployed 559th bomber aviation regiment of 1st mixed aviation division of Air-Space Forces. This regment is aremed with Su-24M and Su-34 aircraft. 
    On one of videos, filmed by locals it's seen at least two explosions on the horizon and he told about sound of 6 UAVs. 
    Later theses photos from airfield appeared
    Damaged Su-34...

     
    And remainings of kamikadze drone (probably Mugin-5 or UKR analog)
     

     
    Later Russian TG wrote that in result of strike one Su-34 and one S-300 launcher were damaged with unknown perspectives of their quick returning to service

  24. Like
    Holien got a reaction from para in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    There have been videos circulating on a whole raft of very poor discipline in the IDF all related to the way they treat Arabs.
    People don't realise what level of anti Palestine sentiment is being stirred up and allowed to influence the forces on the ground. The Israeli media and leadership are in effect encouraging the IDF to commit war crimes. Even pop songs...
    There are whistle blowers trying to raise concerns but they are deemed enemies of the real Israelis.
    As the captain pointed out there are better ways to conduct this whole exercise. The current tragedy could have been avoided by a more careful measured approach but at the moment there is a rush to destroy Gaza before the Western world wakes up.
    In the UK our PM just went to Italy for a right wing get together talking about mass migration being used as a weapon to overwhelm Europe. 2 million folk in Gaza will be looking for homes....
    Perhaps he should be putting pressure on getting Israel to move slowly and more accurately against Hamas rather than razing Gaza to the ground.
  25. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from MHW in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    Good luck finding many journalists left alive in that area, the number of deaths have peaked and even in "safer" areas they have specifically been shot by IDF forces in the recent past. 
    The BBC have been trying to show balance by reporting both sides of what is happening in Israel outside Gaza and have had IDF troops intimidation when interviewing Palestinian activists. 
    Israeli citizens who have tried to raise their opposition have been falsely arrested and intimidated by the police. 
    The courts independence are under attack by the government and before this horrific terrorist attack parts of the IDF were striking in protest against the extreme right wing government. 
    The attack has allowed the extremists in the Israeli government to try and use it for their own ends. 
    As has been said on other threads if you want to be the good guy you need to do the right things.
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