Holien

C’mon, you are being pretty selective in your analysis.  From the DW article you just posted (dated 10 Jul 23):
According to OutRush, a research team that conducts surveys among Russian emigrants, 16% of those who left the country after February 24, 2022, have since gone back to the Russian Federation. However, two-thirds said they had only returned temporarily.
So that is one third of 16% have returned to the sweet loving arms of mother Russia…but this is proof that Russians are returning in droves?
So here is my question: if Russia does not care about losing billions in sanctions, losing over 100k dead and likely another 100k crippled, a nations worth of military hardware and just about any diplomatic clout it had prior to this war….what does Russia care about?
I have heard this from some folks since the beginning of this thing and it feeds into the invincible Russia narrative.  Russia apparently does not care about anything so we can never defeat them without entirely annihilating them…that is not only disingenuous, it is frankly dumb.
Russia is a state and as such has the needs of a state.  It requires the core components of statehood primarily a continuous negotiation of a contract with its population.  It cares very much about some things, the Russian people care about some things.  They are not a monolithic blob that must be eradicated from the earth and if somehow we fail to do this we have lost the war.
All war is a multifaceted negotiation between peoples.  This war is not likely to end fast no matter what we do at this point…but that does not mean that Russia cannot collapse, military or politically.  Continuous pressure will build up over time.  You make note of Ukrainian fatigue, but again apparently Russia is inexhaustible - I disagree.  Russia is better at hiding it and suppressing symptoms but that does not mean they can endure suffering better than everyone else.
I am sorry but the Russian pundits (not you personally) have been consistently wrong in this war.  First Russia was supposed to tear through Ukraine in weeks…nope.  Then they were supposed to grind Ukraine down…nope.  Then they were supposed to do a 1942 level of mobilization…nope.  Then they were supposed to dominate the “escalation ladder”.  Then they were supposed to step out of the international sanctions box and prevail…nope.  All Russia has done is manage to hold onto a few hundred kms of blasted earth and not fall apart.  But for some reason this is worth assigning Russia supernatural abilities to rise and conquer?
 

Sourse of this infornation is unknown, it's as if a list of dead on A-50 and IL-22 planes:
Russian TG writes, that Russian generals decided to share as official the version of friendly fire. They already pointed "guilty" AD unit and official version will be this was mistaken launch from Krasnodar region. But nobody in clear mind in troops don't believe in this 
The list of dead:
A-50:
lt. colonel V.Levchenko - vessel commander and other 5 members of crew (two majors, two captains, sen.lieutenant). This list is not complete.
IL-22:
colonel Burmistrov (allegedly)
There is no information eirther was present onboard ot not the deputy commander of Long-range aviation Command lt.general Pchela.
 
Some UKR sources hinted that Russian planes were hit by Patriots, but tracking radar was Ukranian/Soviet. This was a result of work of FrankenSAM program - integration of Soviet/Ukrainian AD systems into western. Probably Russian crew spotted radiation of UKR radar, but though they are safe, because S-300 can't reach them, but got Patriot missile. 
Air Force Command claimed this night first time was successfully used one of FrankenSAM system, which destroyed Shahed in 9 km from Odesa. Except project Patriot+UKR/Soviet radar, also exists two other - Buk+ Sparrow missiles and AIM-9+radar (I give up how it can work, maybe AIM-120 meant)

Hm... Our response to jet Shahed-238.... eee... jet "Bober"(?). By the way fragments of shot down allegedly Shahed-238 were shown about week ago, but Air Force Command can't confirm this was exactly this type of drone. 
Reportedly this UKR jet strike drone still under tests. 
 

In one of latest missile attack on Ukraine 6 Kinzhals were launched. Air Force Command claimed three of them didn't hit own targets. At least two were found in fields near Kropyvnytskyi city (central Ukraine), where one of largest airfiellds. Missiles hit the ground and didn't explode. Sappers conducted controlled explosion of their warheads.
If you expected some sci-fi type of warhead, that Kinzhal has slightly modified FAB-500 dumb bomb as it.
PS. On today's briefing deputy of GUR chief Vadym Skybytskyi told Russians significantly modernized own Kh-101 cruisse missiles in comparison with models, which they used in 2022. Late version of missile has not only passive defense system like flares block, but also the block of EW, which should interfere to make targeting for AD systems
Humilitation of the "wunderwaffe"

Don't sleep on the labor shortage part of this. The kind of guy in Russian society who mucks out plumbing and fixes steam pipes can easily think he will make more money in the army or because he has no krisha, he gets mobilized anyway. And at best for him, the defense industry pays better and is growing. 

It's hard video, but need to avoid "echo chamber effect". The price of our bridgehead holding and expanding in Krynky. Video of Russian propagandist account, shows result of failed attempts of river crossing and evacuation of fallen comrades (in black bags). Episodes lilkely filmed during late autumn or in early December.
Those, who fight there say too much "missed in Krynky", because not always it's possible to find and evacuate bodies, especially if enemy sank boats.  
 

Usually drones carry PG-7 HEAT ammo. It's enough to penetrate armor from the back, top or side, unprotected by ERA 
It's claimed we designed special EFP ammunition for drones - EFP-S. It will allow to to hit successfully enemy vehicles, protected by slat armor. But unknown where this payload will appear on frontline

Tom Cooper talking about what he knows best - aviation .
An interesting timeline and suggestion as to what happened to the A-50U and  Il-22M
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-16-january-2024-scratch
P

Best point for FPV to cook off the tank is the hull top behind the turret
Here two nice fireballs
 

Perfidious Albion strikes again!
 
This bridge is not load-bearing anymore.
 

I like to imagine that people who get their panties in a bunch over stuff like this must have separate, clearly marked, and strictly enforced toilets in their homes.

Thanks BFC for organizing these tournaments. I really enjoyed all the games save one. I hope you learned a lot of lessons you can roll into future tourneys. 
  Since no-shows are just a way of life with projects like this, may I suggest one thing?  Make the first scenario worth the fewest number of points and the last scenario the most. Kinda like some game shows. This way you cull out the no-shows with the fewest number of points at steak. Maybe use somethin’ like ~1000-2000-3000 points for the 1st-2nd-3rd games. 
 Looking forward to more tourneys!

All depends on what your opponent does, so there will always be outliers in the results.

Already answered on this. We can't shot down ballistic and high-speed cruise, ground/aerial launched missiles (Kh-22, Kh-31P, Onix), because we have only one PAC-3 and one SAMP/T battery, capable to do this. But they guard Kyiv. Also we have probably two or three PAC-2 batteries, which almost ineffective against these targets

Maybe Budanov realizes first step on some foggy strategic plans of Ukraine in Africa, which will be more actual after the war. I think, after the war we will have many people, who already can't find themselves in civil life and Ukriane also can establish some PMC to eliminate Wagner scum in Africa

Because Russians launched many ballistic missiles, which can be intercepted only by PAC-3/SAMT-P. And cities were hit, which weren't covered by these systems.  We have per one battery of each
Launches statistic:
Kh-101/555 - 24 (18 shot down)
Shaheds - 8 (8 shot down)
S-300/400 - 7 (0 intercepted)
Kh-22 - 8 (0)
Iskander-M - 6 (0)
Kinzhal - 4 (0)
Kh-31P - 2 (0)
Kharkiv, Dnipro, Novomoskovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia were struck

This take is highly redolent of the attitudes of pessimists in the 1930's and contra your claim, there was very extensive German/fascist influence in Western democracies during that period. But then, as now, the extremist states were driven by the dynamics of authoritarian rule and could not stop themselves from over reaching.  Why? Because such states are not good at running countries very efficiently and must needs export the internal contradictions they suffer from to survive. Nuclear weapons change the way these things play out somewhat but Russia and China are simply not a match for an aroused and committed US/EU. It is a rough truth for Ukraine (and one that I find shameful) but the West has room to dither. Russia in particular, will not know when to quit and it is already working towards Russia's undoing. 

so about those Autocracies making faster decision cycles... roughly comparable to Russia's corruption issues.
Xi Jinping Purges Military Following Reports Of Missiles Filled With Water Instead Of Fuel (msn.com)
 

It is an astonishingly strong conceit that autocracies are somehow better at war than more liberal states. Even looking at *this* war...Russia's autocracy has screwed up in every conceivable way, taken grossly disproportionate losses and cannot regain its earlier standing *even if it prevails* in Ukraine. It has inflicted on itself a strategic, economic and demographic disaster.   

and that quick win ended on the drive at Kiev... soooooooo we are back to the democracies having much better economic clout, which incidentally the democracies flexed that clout way faster than Russia expected.  The decision to knock Russia off Swift was done immediately and that was not a small matter.

This is fabulously wrong headed.
"Somehow", those effete slow liberal democracies managed to win WWII, Korea, Cold War, Gulf War, etc against those superlative and efficient autocracies and dictatorships.

Ukrainian society in this question was heavy affected by Russian and local politics PsyOps. And alas, by real facts how many commanders and military medicine commitees treat servicemen like in Soviet army where you are not valuable miltary specialist, even if you are rifleman, but a penny-cost spare part. 
As I wrote several months ago, main categories of population, who is not in army yet remained "I don't want to go at war, but if I mobilized I will go", "I don't wan't to go at war, but if I mobilized I will be forced to go because I will be prosecutd" and "I don't wan't to go at war, I'm free human being, mobilization and closed borders are violation of my human rights/ I'm citizen of the world / I hate your corrupted failed state / I want Russia will come"
Russian PsyOps actively works with first two groups and actively involve the latter group for influence with a message "we already lost the war, all hopes are crashed, Zaluzhnyi need 500 000 for meat assaults, all who will be mobilized will die". Or conspiracy "West will wage a war until last Ukrainian and after just will grab our soil"
Alas many "opposition" politics works against too. Some followers of Poroshenko actively shared takes that this is Zelenskiy guilted that Russia invaded, his corruption led that West will reject to support his authoritarian regime, so we can't win the war, so we need to establish new "Government of trust" it  should start negotiations and best solutions would be "Minsk-3" (something like this already was hinted by Poroshenko personally). All this reinforced with a take "So, did you live too bad with Poroshenko and Minsk-2? Well, now with full-scale war and missiles are raining from the sky, with dozens of thousands killed - now do you feel better?". To be fair, not all Poroshenko followers share these takes and many Russian bots mask under Poroshenko-followers, sowing many hate in our social media. 
   
 

Gee, what can't Ukraine do with a drone? Previously we saw them use drones to take prisoners, now they're using them to free prisoners. Pasting the text here since the site is a quagmire of ads.
A prisoner of war tied up in Russian trenches believed this was the end as he was dragged to enemy territory – until a drone came to save him.
Footage shared by Volodymyr Zelensky’s air assault forces shows the incredible rescue of the soldier.
In a video published on Telegram on Tuesday, he can be seen in a dugout, with his legs and arms wrapped in rope.
Ukraine’s 95th brigade had deployed three crews of drones to help neighbouring units being stormed by Russians.
As one of the operators approached the area, he spotted the captured soldier and began flashing his lights at him, trying to get his attention.
It was a miracle he had survived at all as the Ukrainian forces had just bombed the trenches, the military said.
As soon as the PoW realised the drone was Ukrainian’s, he began following it as it led him to safety.
‘The paratroopers were working in an area controlled by the enemy,’ a statement from the 95th brigade said.
Many invaders were successfully eliminated. When the Russians were destroyed, they noticed a Ukrainian serviceman tied up in the trench. It was a fighter from another brigade.
‘Our drone operator with the call sign Kevin began to attract the attention of that captive – flashing lights on the Mavic drone.
‘The guy on the ground got his bearings, realised that it was his own and started following our drone.’
Running away from the scene, the PoW was faced with another Russian soldier, but the drone dropped its last grenade, killing him on the spot.
Video of the rescue:
https://metro.co.uk/video/captured-ukrainian-soldier-details-unbelievable-escape-russian-trenches-using-drone-3093593/?ito=vjs-link
 
 

Hi, just bombing the thread with YouTube links and no explanation puts you on my troll list.
So care to explain your POV?

Hi, just bombing the thread with YouTube links and no explanation puts you on my troll list.
So care to explain your POV?