Holien
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Days Won
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Posts posted by Holien
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Gents Steve has given clear guidelines of what and how to discuss in this thread.
Can we FFS stay within those guidelines? Please...
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I think the use of special forces to neutralise the AD assets could be a fairly plausible explanation especially as they would have been easy to identify beforehand.
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31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Enjoy
I did thanks and does explain why they didn't target some other interesting points in the vicinity.
I think your analysis is plausible and a very possible explanation of that strike. Let's hope that they can ramp up production.
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1 hour ago, Grigb said:
It might be good to overload them with applicants and bombard that address with "willing" time wasters?
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1 hour ago, kevinkin said:
To be clear, Ukraine is not on a leash with respect to their own territory. They are just not heading to Moscow anytime soon.
OK thanks for the explanation I agree that Ukraine will not be invading Russia but I disagree that they are on a leash as that implies they are being walked / controlled by someone and I see no one controlling them, people might request they don't do certain things with weapons they have generously given them.
Anyway let's hope Russia is undergoing some change of leadership.
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Can the day get any better?
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40 minutes ago, kevinkin said:
So you expect Ukraine to violate the agreed boundaries given them in exchange for the aid meaning they will cross into Russia in pursuit then pull back? Have not heard that one.
Hmmm I did not see Ian write that, you seem to be making things up, perhaps a bit like the leash comment.
How is Ukraine on a leash?
I would love to see a full explanation of that comment from you. What have I missed about the US relationship with Ukraine?
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32 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
I forget, is Tom Cooper a "Friend of The Thread"?
Excellent article and a good reminder on how to interpret maps. Thanks for posting it here.
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16 minutes ago, kraze said:
Very brutally and violently.
Hi to help me understand can you kindly put a bit more detail into this?
I thought he stopped the Russian forces from getting involved in many external situations.
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A bit of people power confronting Russians abroad.
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9 hours ago, billbindc said:
Dannatt is very similar to a lot of folks who work on this issue. They can tell you quite articulately how badly Russia is doing and how brilliant the Ukraine campaign has been but simply cannot see how Ukraine wins. I have had this conversation numerous times with legit experts and many cherish as an article of faith that Russia has another gear it can drop into an win the war...or at least not lose it. There are decades of attitudes and expectations in that view and it's just impossible for some folks to get over it.
I think you have to view him and some folk through the lense of how they have served and there background.
Dannatt reached the top of a very slippery pole through long service in the British military. The skill required to do that is very different than what is needed as a Captain, Major etc... and while I don't like his politics he did serve actively our country so he deserves some respect for that.
As mentioned in a previous post when you get to the top the chances are that you don't always study the detail and are not aware of what is happening in the weeds. (A great general is BTW, and I don't think he was a great general). So I don't think he follows this thread and gives as much time to understanding the low level stuff as perhaps he should.
This thread does and it has come to a different view because of it and so far the thread has been more right than wrong on the outcomes.
Also you have to add in that folk when dealing with the media need to take a position and be very clear and concise with a simple POV. Media don't ask you back to talk (and pay expenses) if you are full of greys, rather than blacks and whites when talking.
So for Dannatt or anyone else to say that Ukraine will win it is tough to point to anything to say clearly why that will happen. He is working with an outdated conceptual model and it will take time for him to change that view. That is why the work of The Capt is so important and he needs to change views of these old school warriors...
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8 hours ago, danfrodo said:9 hours ago, MikeyD said:
Two possibilities. Either 1) Dannatt's an old Cold Warrior with an inflated opinion of Russian capabilities, or 2) he's Kim Philby.
With a nice sprinkle of Oswald Mosely.
Ok so I am a bit pissed off with this and would ask you two to reconsider, I can kinda forgive MikeyD as I sort of get where he is coming from but Dan you have added nothing and just attacked a UK Public Servant who has given a good part of his life to protecting the UK and Europe and working with America. So shame on both of you....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Dannatt
Before you start slagging off people that don't agree with your views please take a look at the whole and if you do have any evidence that he is a racist I would love to see it.
So YES he is old school and you have to view the context of these senior leaders they don't always do detail and were very used to a life at the top being fed information to make the key choices on what to do.
He could well be wrong about the outcome of the war as he does not have the detail he once had access to. He is of course has life experience to draw upon which we don't have the same as him. Unless you served at the top of your armed forces?
What we want is a quick end to this war and from following here I am hopeful that will happen but it has not happened yet and for me the next phase is key to see if Ukraine can pull off a major victory and force Russia out of say Kherson.
This would be a good indication that they can turn the tables on Russia and win the war quickly.
Of course Kherson could all be a diversion and they have another target, that would be good too but so far we have not seen it and I wait in hope and keep looking at the Tea Leafs for signs...
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1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:
Probably one of the best overviews of the sinking of the Moskva and the factors that probably played a role:
Basically, the ship was unfit for combat.I attended that session and was waiting for the slide set to be released. Thanks for highlighting it.
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Not sure what the above picture is showing? Is it satellite dropping a bomb?
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25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
extreme precision (CEP of maybe 10m by the looks of it)
Hmmm do we know where exactly they aimed at?
This Fuel depot would have made a nice target too?
Anyway I know I am being super picky but we can't let you get too cocky?
I guess we will find out in a few years what the exact target co-ordinates were, either way it did it's job...
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4 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:
For reference re: missile speed, a Kh-22 has a terminal velocity of about Mach 4.6.
I have seen this explained as follows: -
You needed a camera pointed in exact right place and it only just caught an image.
We might yet see an image when security cameras are checked?
QuoteThink back to the "accidental" bombing of the shopping centre in Ukraine a month or so ago - the hypersonic missile used by Russia was so fast that a security camera running at 30fps only caught the missile in a single frame of the footage before it hit the ground. In one frame it wasn't in shot, then it was in shot for one frame, in the very next frame it was gone again, replaced by an explosion. Those long range high altitude hypersonic missiles are FAST and nothing like the slower, shorter range missiles that can be seen and heard easily.
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Are we fed up with folk doing analysis on the kick to "Putins Balls?"
Nothing much new to add but some good photo's and more ID'ing of areas on the airfield.
This link was nestled within the one above but has nice images and one of destroyed plane.
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9 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:
Unsurprisingly, at Pisky they have clearly demonstrated what they can do when focusing the fire of two or three artillery brigades on an extremely narrow section of the frontline: they’ve saturated an area of about 1.000 by 300 metres with 6,000–7,000 shells, on 1 and 2 August alone (this is something nobody can survive).
Hmmm well through the detailed analysis kindly done by @Grigb I think we can say they did survive but had to pull back slightly. His last post was very amusing with the journalist travelling down a contested road...
The problem is people don't have the time to get into the weeds to fully understand what happened at say Pisky and having the skills and time to do that analysis before writing something.
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9 minutes ago, Los said:
A few small holes in the side of any aircraft, or even suspected blast pressure damage will require maintenance teams to go over them with a fine tooth comb.
Yep I don't doubt that and thanks to @The_Capt for the first plausible explanation as lucky for me don't get to be near too many loud bangs of this nature
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1 hour ago, Huba said:
Are they?
Well if you compare what happened to the same plane type of their neighbors they are.
Of course I don't think they will be flying anytime soon, especially if they are made of concrete...
just an oddity that I am hoping someone can explain.
In the grand scheme of things it really does not matter the overall effect is the same just intrigued...
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Just edited image to show the planes I am just not understanding why they seem to be in better shape than the others...
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5 hours ago, chrisl said:
everything is burned. planes burned. building burned. only thing not burned are the cement decoys. I have some pink flamingos made of cement, and the aircraft that didn't burn are probably similar.
Ok concrete would perhaps explain the lack of being affected by the blast. I will have to google to see some. The down side for conrete is they are a bitch to move around and any good analysis would see those planes never move...
Mind you based on the Russian half arse philosophy they might just go "good enough"...
Hmmm first hit on google...
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/world/europe/russia-decoy-weapon.html
So these would just be destoyed...
Hmmm it gets better
So I am still puzzled why that jet has not been blown backward by the blast in front of it. I don't buy it was moved into area after blast...
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33 minutes ago, Grossman said:
as those hits were super accurate.
Not so sure as I can think of better places to hit within the airfield, but super accurate when compared vs Russian attacks.
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OK I very much want these images to be true but riddle me this why is the plane close to the "workshop" crater with an open bay front not pushed back or even over edge of rear blast wall?
I get the white one nearby being protected but not the one immediately opposite the blast?
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Both France and Germany should be ashamed and called out on this total lack of support...
The UK is in for a rough ride due to the current clowns not understanding how to run an economy but at least we do know it is worth supporting Ukraine with a decent amount of kit and training...
There are plenty of things France and Germany can do to help with the military aid.