Holien
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Posts
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Posts posted by Holien
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27 minutes ago, akd said:
At least one of the drones appears to have just glided down into an open field without kinetic interference, so between AD intercepts and possible guidance jamming, it will be difficult to say what was an intended target.
Just watching the BBC report I don't think the drones had any explosive on them, it could just be a big stunt. The Russians have not shown any serious damage and the media have a bit easier access to film any serious damage in Moscow.
We will have to see what the drones were to understand the possible range and any possible payload, but its looking like it was more of a psychology opportunity than a serious military hit.
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15 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:
rattled the Japanese public
For FA effect on the public and absolutely pointless. We have numerous posts saying why bombing Civies and cities in Ukraine are counter productive to Russia.
Unless Ukraine had specific military targets of worth in Moscow then imo they would be better to focus on less defended military targets. Russian military Planes sat on runways perhaps?
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2 minutes ago, kraze said:
Minor damage and no serious injuries
I hope Ukraine is targeting military targets in Moscow as otherwise it is a pointless exercise and could weaken support.
Surely they would have been better deployed against the forces launching attacks on Ukraine. But until we know the targets in Moscow I guess it is just a feeling of unease that Ukraine is wasting precious military strike capability.
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3 hours ago, kimbosbread said:
The US has Japan and UK as #1 friends. Two other extremely warlike countries with capable militaries.
Don't count on the UK as a capable military we have serious issues with our finances which have impacted our military. I would suggest America gets closer with Europe who combined have a more capable military than the UK.
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33 minutes ago, billbindc said:
I strongly recommend digging into John Ganz (who Twitter suspended on the lightest of pretexts today). He explains with both excellent historical context and a sharp contemporary eye how and why vultures like Musk and Sacks are going ever more in a Völkischer direction: https://johnganz.substack.com/
Thanks super useful in trying to get my head around somethings happening in America and even here in the UK
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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1658700010643419136
Could be that the Patriot system hurt itself with a misfire?
So Russia can't even claim a success with any of their missiles.
(Which does not stop them from trying to claim it
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https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine/index.html
They might have done some damage to a Patriot?
Will be a good test to see how easy to fix if it has been damaged?
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29 minutes ago, photon said:
It really seems like Russia has decided to speed run the Japanese strategy in the Pacific, and that the Ukranians have learned well from the American counter-strategy. The Russian strategy at Bakhmut mirrors the Japanese in the Solomons (a brutal attritional campaign for territory that was of very limited strategic value once the idea of a blitz was off the table), and the Ukranians, like the Americans, held on while simultaneously developing a second fighting force off the line.
The recent actions perhaps portend something like the Battle of the Philippine Sea, where the results of American corrosive warfare (both in the Solomons and the underwater blockade) became obvious for the first time.
In particular, the battle revealed the different first derivatives of pilot training and quality. It also revealed the effects of American ISR dominance, which increased the second derivative of the difference in pilot training and quality.
That battle collapsed the Japanese perception of their own option space, as it revealed the inability of their naval air arm to effect any strategic results. As the Americans realized this, the Big Gray Ball was free to maneuver strategically and force the sort of hard choices about dislocation on the Japanese that the Ukranians seem to be forcing on the Russians.
Nice to read this. Thanks
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11 minutes ago, Thomm said:
Wouldn't molotovs help with those bunker assaults, by means of smoke generation, at the very least?
Yes but not so easy to carry into combat and rolling around in combat with them might be a bit too dangerous.
Carrying flammable liquid around in glass has some challenges.
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6 hours ago, akd said:
JonS whinged and whinged
BTW he was not whining but just giving a pithy summary of the thread so far...
Poms whinge
Kiwis are pithy...
P.S thanks for the videos
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12 hours ago, Rokko said:
I mean obviously it is not like kill the 400'000, then go home and have a victory parade, but it highlights the severity of Russia's manpower problems. With rates like this they will have to recruit/mobilize more than 300'000 men every 12 months, just to have anyone at all manning trenches.
OK thanks for the clarification as it appeared from the previous text that you were saying that Russia had plenty of men to "burn through" and it would take a year to make any difference.
It also appeared that you were trying to give a "better or a counter perspective" than what the Capt had stated which was actually quite useful in understanding the death rate compared to other wars.
I misunderstood the point you were making.
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FYI - BBC have published an article about the Russian ships in the Nord Stream area...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65461401
QuoteAnd a third vessel, the naval tugboat the SB-123, is said to have arrived just five days before the September explosions. The radio communication suggests that it stayed there for the entire evening and night before sailing back towards Russia.
Satellite imagery examined by the broadcasters is said to support the claims about the unusual routes, and other reports in Germany had claimed it was in the area on 21-22 September.
This vessel can be used to support and rescue submarines and has the ability to carry out operations on the seabed, according to experts interviewed by the broadcasters.
Last week it emerged that the Danish military had taken 26 photographs of another Russian navy vessel specialising in submarine operations near the site of the blasts.
The usual Russian single finger to the West, we know you know but we don't care as we are at war with you (even if you don't think you are at war with us...)
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1 hour ago, Rokko said:
To put things into perspective: At this rate they would fully burn through the September 2022 mobilization of 400'000 (w/ change) in 480 days, i.e., by the end of next January.
I would call that a false perspective.
You do realise Ukraine doesn't have to "burn through" all the mobilisation to make significant gains?
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3 hours ago, hcrof said:
lot of talk here like the whole operation is going to be easy
Hmmm I have failed to see that.
I think Steve has given a pretty good summary of where the Russian military is based upon the visible evidence.
He has also given a range of possible outcomes as we can't be certain. Ukraine could mess up, I hope not but we are dealing with humans and anything is possible...
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Well I wonder if the Russians were involved in blowing up the pipe Line? (Actually I don't at all...)
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1651650991341576200
Danish have photos
QuoteDanish Defence Command confirms it's in possession of 26 photos of Russian submarine rescue vessel SS-750 at the North Stream 1 blast site on 22 September. Photos taken by Danish patrol vessel "Nymfen".
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38 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:
Gonna contend here that condemning china or the US or anyone else for imperial behavior is coming fron a place of team sports and not principled opposition to their hegemonic tactics, ambitions, or violations of sovereignty. So move on.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65305415
BTW please point to me doing anything you have stated? All I have noted is that China have been alleged to be running Secret Police stations.
So Jog on...
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28 minutes ago, panzermartin said:
Wait, didn't t you know that China has over 750 military bases all across the globe and is enforcing chinese language, chinese currency, chinese culture and chinese weapons everywhere?
But it's too difficult to write in chinese so we all continue in english here.
And Secret Police stations in foreign nations. One just closed in NYC.
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27 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Good gawd we were a lost generation back in the 80s.
Talk about yourself!!! We were reading and playing complicated RPG's such as Aftermath and worrying about where to build a post apocalyptic community.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftermath!
We would wait 30 minutes for a computer game to load off a tape deck to play with block graphics.
The kids today don't know how lucky they are.... (Qué a Monty python sketch)
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On 4/9/2023 at 6:24 AM, kluge said:
Going to bet that the source of the leak will be positively identified by the purchase of the specific make and model of hunting scope in the background of one of the photos.
Yep and from the latest information my bet is they are looking at kids of the politicians who were issued those high level briefings.
I suspect more issues with secret documents ending up at folks homes and not being secured properly.
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2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:
Interesting analyzis
Before I invest time in this what was interesting?
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65161095
I love this quote
QuoteUkrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak blamed the blast on a Russian "internal political fight", tweeting: "Spiders are eating each other in a jar."
Looks like they have arrested an anti war protestor?
Although why she had a box to deliver?
N.B. As for the Brexit diversion, people really need to read what has actually been written and by whom in the thread - no more discussion is needed, just read and digest.
Now back to waiting for better weather and ground conditions....
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57 minutes ago, Cpl Steiner said:
This must be the "rational discussion" Steve was referring to.
Hmmmm
You do see what you have done don't you?
Which BTW was what JonS was succintly commenting on...
1 hour ago, Cpl Steiner said:I think maybe Steve should stick to military matters as this is pretty insulting and frankly bat **** crazy.
My reason for voting Brexit, for the record, is that I believe in democracy and the EU is profoundly undemocratic.
We got rid of a king in the 1600s because he was overruling our parliament.
The EU over the passed decades has imposed thousands of laws on the UK we had to accept by treaty obligation.
It was always about democracy and sovereignty for me and many others, not stupidity, irrationality, or Russian manipulation.
Steve made no mention of stupidity, irrationality and was making a general point that Russia has spent a lot of money on influencing that result, of course who it affected is unknown...
16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:Emotionally driven, hostile to rationale discussion,
As for your personal choice that is yours to make....
Anyway enough of this and it was meant to try and understand the Russian population and why they support the War on Ukraine...
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6 hours ago, dan/california said:
Russians have detained someone
Never waste an opportunity to solve a crime and dispose of someone you want in jail.
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1 hour ago, JonS said:
so far nada
It will happen.
I am watching a TV series on BBC about key military tech advances and yesterday detailed the advent of handguns and the use in political assassination.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b087xksp
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinations_by_firearm
Quote1536
Robert Pakington, Member of Parliament
Believed by some to be the first political assassination ever to be performed with a firearm.
Drones will be used, just humans being humans.
My Bet it will be in 2023 and then we will end up with a Wiki page like the one above....
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
The 80/20 rule works pretty well on most things...
Now as to which way?