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Holien

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Posts posted by Holien

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Supporters of Brexit are very similar to the Catalan independence movement in many ways.  Emotionally driven, hostile to rationale discussion, and enhanced by Russian manipulation to further Russian interests.

    Funny I had the same thoughts but wasn't going to mention it and also a "stolen" election crossed my mind too... 

    Only way folk can deal with it come up with a reason to keep their beliefs intact.

    We had the travesty of our current home secretary blaming everything bar Brexit for the delays at Dover due to passport checks that are now required because we have taken back control...

    Imagine not having a free press to try and break the lies and you can understand why Russians just don't get it....

    4

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Tux said:

    That effect looks more like a partial loss of a digital signal than a camera malfunction to me but I am not in any way an expert on such matters. 
     

    For me the outstanding aspect of this footage is the way the SU-27 approaches. We’ve all been assuming it would have been analogous to ‘tipping’ V-1s in 1944 (a dangerous enough manoeuvre in itself) but, if authentic, this footage shows it was nowhere near as controlled as that. The speed at which and aspect from which the SU-27 approaches both on the ‘fuel dump’ run and leading up to the apparent collision can only be described as extremely dangerous and reckless.

    And Deliberate....  (But we knew that already didn't we...)

    I would hope America is having a private chat with a NATO Ally nearby to try and recover it, unless they can send in a non military recovery ship to enter the area?

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-jet-fires-missile-near-british-aircraft/

    Quote

    Russia, astonishingly, said it was a “technical malfunction”, and Wallace said Britain has now resumed patrols. However, the patrols now have fighter aircraft escorts

    Pity we don't have a friendly NATO country nearby to help recover the lost drone and provide defensive air patrols over international airspace in which these incidents are happening. 

    🙄

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    2 hours ago, chrisl said:

    Short of shooting them down, what's an aircraft response team going to do?  An MQ-9 costs about $30M - not worth getting into a direct shooting match over.  Better to have something Russian quietly disappear.

    Just having a couple of jets stand guard would be enough to stop the Russians hitting it. You also get direct video evidence as you now have 3 potential video sources showing what is happening. 

    I don't know if the MQ 9 has a 360 camera I guess not, so not sure what evidence they have to support the description of what happened.

    So a couple of baby sitters near by, might now be needed for these flights to continue. 

    If Russia is now picking up the wreckage I wonder what they or China can learn from it...

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, chrisl said:

    The Bosporus and Dardanelles are closed to warships weren't already based in the BS before the war, so essentially no naval vessels in or out.  In principle the US could send an unarmed civilian contractor vessel to recover it.

    My comments were aimed at aircraft not surface ships. I guess it depends on where the drone was launched and how far any aircraft response team could get there.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

    Hate to be a downer, but this has crossed my mind more than once with regards to so-called Russian shortages of ammo

    Hmmm I wonder how effective Russian just in time logistics are to get these held back weapons to where they need them?

    Also holding them back in weapons dumps could be a big loss when it goes 💥 ....

    Just a thought...

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Just a thought on the videos that we see of Russian protest. We perhaps should see this as a positive in  that they are “brave” enough to protest under the banner of Patriotism to save themselves from a visit at night…

     

    Perhaps that is all we can hope that they (Russians) know it is a meat grinder and the only way they feel safe to protest…

    That was my thought when I saw the tank crew video in the crater it was a safe way to show they were alive but drape it in Patriotism to save a beating when they get back to base....

     

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Not until we get into some seriously different manufacturing processes.

    Not to sidetrack too much but I am sure you are keeping an eye on 3d printing....

    This has changed the way places like Jag Landrover work and not too many steps to transition to factory level work...

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Holien

    @chrisland @womble

    You are Spot on - Legacy systems become legacy because they are not maintained or upgraded and Nukes are no different.

    Now I would not want to bet that some might work but Russia is in a world of hurt and they don't have the resources to upgrade and I bet they don't have the ability to maintain when key folk disappear...

    BTW I have had the joy of trying to replace Legacy computing systems and there are some very old systems still working in critical business - such as banking and logistics.

    E.g. COBOL created in the 50's and still in use in around 40% of modern banking systems...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COBOL
     

    Quote

    Testimony before the House of Representatives in 2016 indicated that COBOL is still in use by many federal agencies.[114]Reuters reported in 2017 that 43% of banking systems still used COBOL with over 220 billion lines of COBOL code in use.[115]

    By 2019, the number of COBOL programmers was shrinking fast due to retirements, leading to an impending skills gap in business and government organizations which still use mainframe systems for high-volume transaction processing. Efforts to rewrite systems in newer languages have proven expensive and problematic, as has the outsourcing of code maintenance, thus proposals to train more people in COBOL are advocated.[116]

    CEO's kick the can down the road as they don't want to face the cost of bringing the kit and code up to date....

    I wonder what code they used / use for their Nukes? - I bet it has not been updated...

    IMO Don't ever underestimate the word legacy and the impact it has...

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Holien
    Added bit re Lindybeige

    OK for folks that have not seen this latest video of a UK volunteer back from Ukraine.

     

    Key points that I found useful...

    1. Sausage can be used as a reward... (payoff at end of video)😉
    2. The difference between the Ranks and Officers - really interesting insight at start of video and I am not sure how it plays out in combat effectiveness? - Might have been repeated in WW2 as once you get a lot of new people in the Officer distinction might / gets blurred?
    3. Ukraine soldiers still makes mistakes - clumping  - training really needs to be upped
    4. Base camp life and stealing of kit
    5. There are still idiots who support Russia and have tried to infiltrate the land based forces... - See Sausage story..
    6. Really explains the background to Ukraine and Russian military / original training and impact.
    7. Rules of engagement / restraint being followed by Ukraine on keeping civilian causalities low.
    8. How some folk in the units can do things / attack without the backing of command. - Shooting of boats to stop men trying to get across the river at the Russians.
    9. Russian living quarters - "like a bunch of junky student squatters had been living there" -
    10. Also some good points about food rations and where Russians had advantage (ammo and types of it) - does explain looting to some extent by Russians - no excuse but explains it...

    So IMO worth listening to in background as you work on the PC.

    BTW the interviewer is a TableTop Gamer and does WW2 gaming and I have met him - very nice chap and down to earth - a funnier JonS - but JonS knows more about the pointy end than Lindybeige and is a bit more pithy...

    😉

     

     

    4

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Holien

    OK for those that think sanctions are not working this interview is pretty good and balanced on what we know about the state of the Russian economy...

     

    Some of the Key Points (many we know already)...

    1.  We don't know the true metrics as all we are told is what the Russians tell us and there is no independent verification. So IMF and World Bank are just repeat what they are told by the Russians and the key leadership in the Russian Rostadt has been replaced three times by the Putin Goons until they got the right person in place.
    2. Q2 of 2022 Russia stopped reporting the information required to the IMF and World Bank.
    3. Russia is lying about the figures - Shock horror!!!
    4. Any quotes about value of Roubles is BS as it is not being traded so if you hear someone say the Rouble is fine it is BS as it is not being traded!!
    5. The Russian state is propping things up with Foreign Reserves
    6. He even quotes photos of Refrigerators being stripped of chips to feed the military production lines.
    7. Oil sales Russia is losing money on any oil it sells as it costs more to transport and extract than what they can get for it...
    8. Some international companies are still trading in Russia.
    9. Russia Economy is now smaller than Chile
    10. Russian Gas is now no longer needed by Europe -
       

    11. LNG has replaced any losses of Russian Gas - On a personal note my Gas Tracker rate is now 1/2 or what it was costing, still high but

      has come down...
       
    12. To build new pipelines from Russia for Gas it will take 6 years to build to the Asian markets - Russian gas is just being burnt off at the moment... (If they could even get help building them)

     

     

    6

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Holien

    11 hours ago, LukeFF said:

    For all countless money spent on this war and the claim that the Russian military is just a bunch of boobs, we're stuck now with a stalemate that has no end in sight

    You know what I hold BF accountable for this sentiment!!!

    You produce computer games and folk get used to winning after a few hours!!!

    How unrealistic and folk then accustomed to winning when they see the real thing think it's a stalemate!!!

    So BF buck up and do something about it!!! Jeezzzz  😉

    I really don't know how the folk during WW2 dealt with the length of time it took to defeat the Germans, I guess there were some that thought it was a stalemate and we should have just given up....

    🙄

    KEEP CALM CARRY ON

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Holien
    Tidy Up

    In regards to Russia having some sort of hold over the German establishment it is surely possible and very very likely IMO...

    Just look at what has happened in the UK.

    There is a reason why the Tory party does not want Rusian Influence in Brexit investigating and as they control the levers at the moment that truth will not be found or investigated.

    Quote

    2.5 years since Russia Report found credible evidence of election meddling, Govt STILL turns a blind eye - ignoring national security issues because of political inconvenience. Delighted our landmark

    court case is proceeding - the future of democracy is on trial

    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616034580376567813

    There certainly has been bribery campaigns in Europe and it is beyond belief that Russia will not have been doing so in Germany...

    So what sort of campaign has been held by the Russians in Germany? - Maybe one day in our life time we will find out.

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    On 1/18/2023 at 4:54 AM, Battlefront.com said:

    This is something that CM can help sort out.  Explore the possibilities from the safety of a chair :)

    After watching hundreds of videos and reading all kinds of first and third hand evaluations, I have some suspicions of how to deal with this new lethal battlefield.

    First, let's identify and rank the most important systems and why:

    1. ISR (in particular small drones) - if you have this, everything else becomes easier and more effective.  Even if your guys are all buck naked and without weapons, at the very least you can keep them alive by directing them away from the enemy and pass on information that might make the next unit have better luck.
    2. Coms - if you aren't able to quickly and efficiently pass information around outside of your immediate positions, then you're not going to be very effective.  You also won't be able to take advantage of most anything else in this list.
    3. PGMs on call - one drone team with a radio can ruin just about any plan the enemy might have.  Period.  Doesn't matter what delivers the PGM, only that it is delivered when it is called for and lands where intended.
    4. Dumb artillery on call - not as good as PGMs for some tasks, but given enough of it and of the right caliber it can be just as good or (for widely dispersed targets) better.  But it's more difficult, less likely to succeed, and has a greater chance of being countered.
    5. AT weapons - the more capable the better, the greater the number the better.  Sure, it is optimal to have Javelins and NLAWs, but if you have a large number of short range one shot weapons you've got options when combined with ISR and coms.  Especially if the enemy doesn't have dismounted infantry to worry about.
    6. Plentiful infantry - as with any battlefield since the dawn of time, the side with more soldiers has a theoretical advantage over the one with fewer.
    7. Heavy AFVs - these can be a liability, perhaps even a death sentence, if not handled correctly for the circumstances.  However, when handled correctly they have the opposite effect.  Obviously more capable vehicles are better, however an armored light wheeled vehicle with a M2 mounted on it can be all a force needs to get the job done.

    In parallel to this is the quality of the soldiers involved.  Conscripts with all of this stuff aren't going to know how to use it effectively, so a better unit with less capabilities has a better chance of coming out ahead in an engagement.  Being a really good unit with all of this stuff is, obviously, optimal :)

    For sure there are other things like close air support, EW, mine rollers, etc. that any force would like to have on hand, but the above are the things I see as the core of any offensive or defensive capable force.

     

    As recently discussed, fixed positions eventually mean death if the enemy has the right forces invested.  Ukraine has found that out, though Russia's lack of PGMs means it has taken a decade's worth of ammunition production to get make much progress.  If Russia had the same ability to deliver PGMs as Ukraine does, we might actually see Russians advancing more than a few meters a day.  Either way, though, when Russia wants to take out a Ukrainian defensive point it can, even if it is horribly inefficient and wasteful.  Mass still has power.

    The solution to static death is dynamic life.  Or at least a chance of life.  A force that has all of the stuff I listed off above, defensive or offensive, has what it needs to keep moving around enough to remain combat capable when engaging the enemy.  Especially if the enemy is weak in some areas or, better still, completing lacking.

    I see success coming from a force that can successfully bob and weave long enough to land effective blows.  A defensive force must be prepared to flex so as to not be wiped out in a static position.  Force the enemy to commit, slow it down, then smash it with PGMs, AT, plentiful small arms fire, and/or AFVs.  Move tactical positions frequently, even if it means temporarily moving to less desirable ground.  Being in the best location doesn't matter if a PGM lands a meter or two away because you stayed too long.

    An offensive force does pretty much the same thing, except when it bobs and weaves it favors stepping forward whenever possible.  Eventually it needs to be able to punch so hard that the opponent is out of the way completely.  And that, finally, is where AFVs in numbers becomes useful.  Not necessarily to engage directly, instead cover ground quickly and keep momentum going.  The more mass the better ONLY IF there is ISR to match and/or the enemy lacks it.  Otherwise the attacker is likely going to lose a lot of vehicles.

    In a traditional 2:1 or 3:1 attack vs defender the favored side will be the one with better the better ISR, Coms, and PGMs combo.  Engaging offensively without proper ISR or Coms is just asking for defeat even if everything else is favorable.  Defense is also likely to fail, but it has more room for error.

    Obviously this is all pretty crude, but I think it's a fairly fair assessment.

    Steve

    This is one of the best posts I have read in trying to get to the bottom of what is working.

    Should be included in a military training manual for future wars...

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    OK now for something different a bit of recent history in the Kherson region before it was retaken.

    Ukraine The peoples Fight

    http://www.ollylambert.com/ukraine-the-peoples-fight

    I managed finally to find time to watch this documentary which is available on the BBC iPlayer and hopefully will become available elsewhere if you don't use a VPN.

    Interesting insight to a small unit operating on the front line trying to kill Russians and not very effectively.

    Off the top of my head some interesting things to watch out for...

    1.  Shows secret command centre trying to gather intelligence from those behind Russians lines. Good interview with one of the volunteer members.  This was IMO really useful to see.

    2. Shows a small "Special forces" unit set up by a member of the Ukrainian parliament who was a former SFO.

    • Shows the problems of trying to run this unit with volunteers with not military experience - Watch them RTFM on a mortar.

    • Shows poor mortar skills and failure to hit after repeated attempts a tank they were after.

    • Shows a stable front and the Russians just dug in and not really attempting to patrol the area.

    • Shows a police military unit and some success they had but failure to displace mortar after shooting

    • Shows the SFO team have a "good safe house" but don't seem to have anyone keeping an eye open when resting not too far from front.

    Really worth watching as it shows the problems Ukraine is facing and yet they are winning with what they have!!!

    Really shows why training is vital and I hope the new forces being rotated in with that training should start to make a difference.

    BBC link - restricted unless you know how to use a VPN

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001grdw

     

     

     

     

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Huba said:

    Brexit really was a huge blow to the EU as a political entity,

    Some would say a courtesy from a Russian leader who ran an expensive covert influence campaign that swung the vote just over the line.

    Europe (the world) really needs to understand what Russia does to democracies via the back doors...

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