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Holien

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Posts posted by Holien

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Holien
    Added text

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/stop-tiptoeing-around-russia

    An interesting read and review of past policy. 

    "The United States was not necessarily wrong to pursue a mutually beneficial relationship with Russia. Where it erred was in continuing to pursue this objective long after there was no realistic chance of success, which should have been obvious by 2004, when Russia interfered in Ukraine’s elections on behalf of its preferred candidate, or at the very latest by 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia. Instead of looking for more cooperative partners, however, U.S. policymakers continued their futile courtship of Kremlin leadership. As a result, they passed up opportunities to invest in the U.S. relationship with Ukraine, which was always a more promising engine of democratization in the region."

    Chinese relations and foreign policy might need tweaking? Another tightrope that there is no easy way to cross and falling off it will be deeply painful. 

    I am ever grateful that America is supporting Ukraine as they have been, even if its not as much as they need to end this quickly. 

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    This popped up on another site I follow and seems a pretty good explanation of what has been done with the AGM-88

    The chap seems to have a good knowledge of what the different uses are and what is possible if attached to a non NATO plane.

    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556751670402596865

    Quote

    This leaves only the Pre-Briefed mode. In this mode a AGM-88 is programmed before the fighter departs from the air base with the coordinates of an enemy radar site.

    Once in the air the fighter releases the AGM-88 at maximum speed and maximum altitude, giving the missile a range in excess of 150 km. Once released the AGM-88 will fly towards the coordinates, and when it reaches lock-on range it will scan for, detect, lock on and attack

    This mode works with Ukrainian fighters jets. All they have to do is lift the AGM-88 up, go supersonic, and release the missile. While AGM-88B and AGM-88C-1 use INS to steer them towards a target area, where they then scan for targets, the

    AGM-88D also includes GPS-guidance, which enables the missile to strike known radar and air-defense sites, even when they do not emit radio frequencies. And C-1 and D also have the ability to home-on-jam, which forces russia to switch off it's electronic warfare systems.

     

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Holien

    1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

    The rivers are still crossed with an endless supply of pontoons,

    Hmmm I dispute this - there is never an endless supply!!

    1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

    The concentration of Russian forces almost corresponds to the forces concentrated in the capture of Kiev

    Hmmm again nope... The forces do not match in anyway as they have become depleted and worn down...

    1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

    Could it be that Russia is now taking advantage of Ukraine's inability to equip new mechanized brigades with armored vehicles in the southern direction?

    Hmmmm nope again, unless he has direct information from the Ukr high command how does he know this... in fact Ukr have posted a video of a tank force moving about in the open in column so video evidence to disprove this. I would like to know his source?

     

    1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

    Increasing Russia's forces may have other significance than the (non-existent) major attack from Ukraine!

     

    Hmmm just because it has not happened yet does not make it non-existent. I will agree to this statement at the end of the year if no attack is made.

    It took from end of 1943 to June 44 to launch the planned offensive in Normandy and in fact the build up of forces started in 41 so things do take time and to say non-existent attack means nothing in the timeframe we are currently looking at...

    There is a lot of work to do to give maximum chance of success and the reduction of the Russian AA units is just one part of that...

     

    1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

    Maybe right now, before the rasputitsa, the Russians could strike in the south and that's why the concentration of troops!


    Ahhh OK well he might be right here the Russians might attack but that I think would be good news for Ukr.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

    Russians fixation with Great Britain is something that seems unique to current Russian political culture. Propagandists give UK almost the same amount of attention as to "evil" US.

    Alternatively they could be deeply annoyed at the amount of money wasted on political interference wasted on "Trolley" who they thought would behave differently. So are aiming their angst at our leadership for taking the money and not delivering the goods...

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Erwin said:

    Russia will be left in charge of valuable Ukraine resources.  It is likely that after a suitable pause to allow the west to forget about Ukraine, Russia will continue to nibble around Ukraine's edges making it less and less a viable state  These likely scenarios/possibilities are far more likely to occur in the short term than any dissolution of Russia.  

     

    Erwin why are they more likely? What evidence have you seen and can share with us?

     

    (Hold on while I open a fresh packet of popcorn and sit back...)

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    While I agree it doesn't seem to be negatively impacting their ability to defend elsewhere, the simple fact that they need this much artillery to take a small city that they've been fighting in for 4 months is "crazy".  It's like using a howitzer to kill an annoying fly.

    Add into the pot that to have this much artillery concentrated in such a small area increases the backend logistics of getting the ammunition to the guns. In some ways it simplifies logistics but only if your road and railway net can support that volume of ammunition.

    This could mean more ammunition stored in a location that can be reached by Ukrainian fire.

    I think that we might have seen the effectiveness of this concentration being used against the Russians. The Ukrainians have hit some big ammunition dumps.

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Grigb said:

    It will be PR disaster for British Army because Ukrainians will extensively bad mouth them.

    This could be why no tanks or AFV from any country as the images of them burning on Russian TV will be too much.

    Sure a Gun is OK as it doesn't give a real clue to the general public as to who supplied it. 

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

    The next week or so should confirm if my take on this is correct.  We'll know if I'm wrong if we see a significant Russian offensive somewhere that is not contained within a few days. 

    ARE WE THERE YET!!

    FFS I hope that we are and Russia will be embarrassed for the foreseeable future. (Beyond my remaining years..)

    Steve and The Capt thanks for your continued insights...

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Huba said:

    Nothing like the bolded part is happening, it would take years, not feasible at all. There is a number of transloading facilities on both sides of the border and those are getting up to speed, but it is by no way sufficient. I didn't check on this topic lately, I'll dig a bit and get back with some info. 

    Thanks for the quick response. I think the other forum member has got it wrong, pity. But as you say it is a massive undertaking. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, womble said:

    That's been mentioned here too

    Sorry Womble I must have missed that Poland was actually laying the Ukrainian gauge railway to the Baltic. 

    Can you kindly post where that was discussed here? 

    I have just done a quick Google and can find the desire for it but no actual work being done, maybe our Polish friends can chip in?

    It certainly has been mentioned in this rather long thread that having to cross handle between the gauges doesn't help the process, so I was intrigued to read Poland was actively working on it, but on the other forum it was not backed up by a link.

    Btw I must say your tone of response was a bit poor. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, slysniper said:

    if weapons are getting in by land, food should be getting out.

    I have read on another forum that Poland is working on converting a railway to the Ukrainian gauge to allow trains to carry grain straight through to a Baltic port. Not seen any reports on this but if true it could help break the blockade. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Holien
    Smelling

    5 hours ago, Rokko said:

    What these videos show particularly well is the utterly destitute state of Russian civic culture, with standard answers like "I'm apolitical", "these things are decided at the top", "we have no say in it", etc and a general disconnect from reality ("the rest of the world is envious of Russia's wealth and resources").

    I am not so sure it really shows that, if the same was done in a "Western Country" you would hit upon a similar set of comments.

    Nice to see a few folk understood the Orc question just by their response.

    The reason why we keep having issues in this world is that it is made up of people and people are basically the same.

    Sure in a country where you are beaten up for expressing a political view opposite to the ruling party folk will on the whole decide they prefer not to be beaten up....

    You will get % some folk that get into power and use whatever tools they can to stay in power and pevert power for their own ends and tell people BS to justify it.

    You then get a smaller % portion of powewr crazed folk that decide that their version of the truth needs to be imposed on others outside their country....

    Anyway thanks for posting and it gave me an interesting insight to "modern" Russia.

    43 minutes ago, kraze said:

    Democratic leaders require 51% support to stay in power. Dictators require 95%.

    Hmmm that is not always the case but not really for a debate here...

    ;)

    Right now back to lurking mode and stop myself from asking ARE WE THERE YET!!! (for when Russia is kicked out of Ukraine)... June has just begun.....

     

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