Ales Dvorak

Re: possible insurgency
1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.
2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayhem what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.
3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.
4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.
5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.
 
Re: how am I doing?
My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.
For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.
But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.
I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.
I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...
Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.
At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then, there was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.
Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.
I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.
Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.

SPIEGEL has a long article about the destruction of Nord Stream (paywalled, German):
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/nord-stream-anschlag-in-der-ostsee-die-spuren-fuehren-in-eine-richtung-in-die-ukraine-a-befcbfbb-b1cd-4912-aeaa-56bef4dd8047
They did it together with German TV ZDF who made a documentary (I'm not sure if this is accessible from abroad):
https://www.zdf.de/politik/frontal/doku-fall-nord-stream-spurensuche-ostsee-andromeda-gas-pipeline-explosion-russland-sabotage-ukraine-krieg-100.html
TL;DR:
it was done with a small sail boat with 6-man crew, specialists have confirmed that to be feasible Russian activities at the time & place likely were attempted countermeasures all trails lead to Ukraine & Ukrainians Zelensky's involvement highly unlikely, but maybe lower rank, nothing proven could be Russian false flag - biggest counterargument is that they didn't botch that highly complicated mission German government is unusually tight-lipped & has no real interest in solving the case (now or maybe never)

I don't doubt that you and many or most others went there for all the right reason. But that is not why you were sent to Iraq. We all know that the Bush administration lied to you and the whole world and good people had to suffer and die for it. And some rich people got richer. 
In fact, I think the tragedy is that even the bad guys think that they are doing it for all the right reasons.

I know she is on Ukraine's side, but that doesn't mean what she's saying is necessarily true. Disinformation can come from anywhere...

Was it successful?

That was not my point. Inside the IL English should be standard and I guess it de facto is.
But what happens if you need to talk to someone outside the IL? Some Ukrainian yokel (sorry) who has never spoken a word of English? Or, even if he has - what are the chances he learned military or medical slang in high school?
My point is that if you go to a foreign country to fight, you ought to learn the ****ing language - at least the very basics. For your own sake.
I have nothing more to add.

I READ this and I believe it.
But wait... should I?
😉

That's probably because you didn't recognize it as deep fake. 😉
It's really of no consequence how long it has been around. The technology is developing at what looks like an exponential rate. Sorry to say but "at least for a decade" says that you don't know much about the topic. Most of what constitutes modern "AI" (machine learning methods is a better word) hasn't even been around that long. Much of it not even half a decade.

That was horrible.
I don't understand why they couldn't back up the Bradley closer and drop the ramp right next to the soldiers. Hell, dropping the ramp ON the soldiers would have been preferable. It's almost like there's a 3 meter safely regulation they must obey.

I was thinking more like this
 

This. And usually you only know it was a bluff after calling it.

Sometimes I'm surprised by the amount of copium in this forum. First we didn't even accept the authenticity of the photos published(!)Then came the videos. Then we supposed that the lack of indirect fire is an indication of insufficient artillery coverage by the RU (despite there videos and photos of the same sector with 1. Leopards slaloming between 152mm explosions and 2. Myriads of dense craters in the aftermath photos , only artillery could have caused.) 
Then we said, ruskies have nothing else to show for days, apart from this column. They probably suck again in all other areas. But after a week of fighting, we are thrilled with the liberation of one small village with small RU forward guard in the buffer zone, that is filmed in the usual multi - cam hollywood quality. Truth remains russians wiped out a big unit, with very pricey and rare toys and the RU did this with relative ease and no significant documented losses. Shooting vikhrs from a safe distance like it was Apaches shooting T-72s in Medina Ridge. For a start they seem to have at least figured out how to use their gunships, they deserve this minimum credit I guess. 
 
 
 

I hope his silence will be as successful as John Cage's 4'33".

I hope his silence will be as successful as John Cage's 4'33".

It’s funny seeing the Nazis call other people “Nazis”. 

Looking more closely at the photo, I'm pretty sure something has been retouched out of it.
The grass downwards and to the left of the signpost base seems to have been changed with the clone tool. If you look carefully, you can see repeating patterns.

Is it just me, or is the signpost sticking through the track?

I wouldn't call 20% of the Ukrainian Bradley inventory "minor".

Can I ask you in what kind of "light" do you see Operation Chastise?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chastise

Good tactical point. But in the end the Western Europe thrived. In the present case, I don't think Ukraine would be involved directly in a obvious war crime. I don't think I will be around when the definitive history of this war is written. So who knows.  

Can you point me to a single US pol or member of the security state suggesting the existence of the pipeline was in our interest?  It's easy to find a montage of the opposite, but I can't find anyone suggesting we should allow it to exist, much less use it as a carrot with the Russians (did anyone engage in the latter, or is that entirely a speculated position?).
The leverage was over Germany.  The pipeline was an incentive to Germany to see a deal made at Ukraine's expense.

Would you consider releasing a virus like Stuxnet to be ‘a lawless act at complete loggerheads with supporting the international order’?
 
The notion the U.S. won’t break laws where it sees a benefit in doing so is laughable.  The only ‘international order’ under consideration is keeping the US on top.  
 
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo boasted, “I was the CIA director. We lied, we cheated, we stole. We had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment.”

It's funny because according to western media Putin has been dying since Feb 2022 but Biden looks in worse shape and is more at risk with his constant falls. 
 

I didn't follow this discussion, just stopping by to say: Come on, that is a bit cheap and you usually do much better than that. 😉 I think in this context by "winning the election" almost everyone meant "becoming president". Also, saying he did not win in the primary election is stretching the truth a bit. With 49.5% Erdogan had the most votes and almost managed to achieve an absolute majority. That is quite a feat if you compare it to, say, Macron, who got only 27.8% in the primary election in 2022. The primary election isn't meant to be won outright, that's what the runoff is there for, and it it doesn't make the winner any less democratically legitimized. True, 52% vs 48% isn't a large margin but if you go by popular vote, looking at the last two decades, almost all US presidents won by a similar or even smaller margin. Biden vs Trump was 51% vs 47%, Trump vs Clinton 47% vs 48% (!), Obama vs Romney 51% vs 48%, Obama vs McCain 53% vs 46%, Bush vs Kerry 51% vs 48%.
You are right about the tricks Erdogan pulled off, though I'm not too sure how much if a role they played. Germany has a large Turkish community and people here have free access to all sorts of information. They still voted 67% for Erdogan.

Such as the way Serbia ‘provoked’ the NATO intervention in their civil war.  
Or perhaps the Libyan ‘provocations’ that necessitated NATO intervention in their civil war.
NATO would never intervene in a foreign civil war again, right?  Bonkers notion.  Unless maybe it was in essence on their ‘border’?  
 
I would think Russian leadership could look at the brutal civil war waged in Chechnya and conclude there is a greater than 0.0000000% chance NATO could intervene in a future Russian peripheral separatists conflict, if they had bases reasonably close enough to contribute.  Hence the desire to avoid the development of such bases, and thus render even more remote the possibility. 
 
After Kosovo and Libya you can’t truthfully argue that NATO is a ‘purely defensive’ organization. It’s become a multi-national end run on the UN’s monopoly of force.  That isn’t to argue whether that is itself desirable or not, it’s simply the case.