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chrisl

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  1. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I half expected to see "grain elevator" and "tractor factory" indicated on the map
  2. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Lamarck was the "original", and Lysenko was the Soviet proponent of it.
    ( @Offshoot and @G.I. Joebeat me to it but I didn't read far enough first.)
  3. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    CRISPR
  4. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Going for LLF's position as the forum's cheeriest member, are you?🤢
  5. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Antibiotic resistance to extremely high antibiotic levels in 11 days:
     
  6. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ohhhh for the days of Tank Ist Tot debates. 
    *peers into the immediate future*
    Think I'll give the next two pages a miss...
  7. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Centurian52 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Damn. This sort of thing is a real concern in the DoD. We all want to trust our colleagues. No one wants to think that someone you've worked with for a long time actually intends to do something nefarious, and certainly no one likes getting their friends in trouble. But we don't do annual insider threat training just for show. Whether you're uniformed (me 5 years ago), GS, or a contractor (me right now) you need to make sure the rules are being followed!
  8. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's grab a beer or six sometime and I think I can dissuade you from the idea that Q-Anon isn't culturally American. We'll start with Hofstadter, go to that whole Mikey and the pop rocks thing and end with modern evangelicalism. But way off topic so, until then...
  9. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's exactly what Russia tried in Nov 2021.  They took out a fairly large satellite in a quite messy way.  It was before I was paying close attention to Russian space assets, and it confused a lot of people at the time because it would also threaten Russian satellites. But after Feb 24 when I started looking into Russian space based ISR, they really had nothing substantial to lose and had the potential to create blind spots in US/NATO ISR by "accidentally" taking out western sats.
  10. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from kluge in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's exactly what Russia tried in Nov 2021.  They took out a fairly large satellite in a quite messy way.  It was before I was paying close attention to Russian space assets, and it confused a lot of people at the time because it would also threaten Russian satellites. But after Feb 24 when I started looking into Russian space based ISR, they really had nothing substantial to lose and had the potential to create blind spots in US/NATO ISR by "accidentally" taking out western sats.
  11. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's exactly what Russia tried in Nov 2021.  They took out a fairly large satellite in a quite messy way.  It was before I was paying close attention to Russian space assets, and it confused a lot of people at the time because it would also threaten Russian satellites. But after Feb 24 when I started looking into Russian space based ISR, they really had nothing substantial to lose and had the potential to create blind spots in US/NATO ISR by "accidentally" taking out western sats.
  12. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I suspect it's an easier problem in many ways at sea.  At least the outer picket of defense doesn't have the complication of all sorts of buildings and terrain as it approaches horizon pointing.  You have to worry about friendly ships, but there will be fewer of them than stuff you have to worry about in an urban environment and you can always know where they all are.
  13. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    well they weren't TOTALLY wrong.  "US manufactured Patriot Surface to air missile system has been struck by Krinzhal hypersonic glide vehicle in Kiev."
  14. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I suspect it's an easier problem in many ways at sea.  At least the outer picket of defense doesn't have the complication of all sorts of buildings and terrain as it approaches horizon pointing.  You have to worry about friendly ships, but there will be fewer of them than stuff you have to worry about in an urban environment and you can always know where they all are.
  15. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I suspect it's an easier problem in many ways at sea.  At least the outer picket of defense doesn't have the complication of all sorts of buildings and terrain as it approaches horizon pointing.  You have to worry about friendly ships, but there will be fewer of them than stuff you have to worry about in an urban environment and you can always know where they all are.
  16. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes to all your points.  The nature of mass as we know it is likely to change dramatically - what it consists of, how it is distributed and how we manoeuvre it around the battlefield.  In a pan asymmetric fight the side without the best mass (not the most) is going to lose very quickly. 
    Now in the case of China, a peer force, the competition will very intense as smart-mass comes up against another smart-mass force.  That is the knife fight we all are wondering about.  When you opponent has C4ISR and PGM parity, then we may have a whole new ballgame.  We could wind up like the Russians with a lot of mass simply not smart enough to compete, no matter how much infantry or tanks we throw at the problem.  Smart-mass combined with information and precision all connected is the future of the battle space.  Spending billions on more infantry and tanks right now could be exactly the wrong way to go, at least until the smoke clears and we can figure out what has really happened.
  17. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I meant to comment on that yesterday in the context of Steve's post about camouflage.
    With the cheap drones, they don't even necessarily need fancy thermal optics, just optics that reach a little outside the visible range.  Most commercial image sensors are sensitive out to to the near IR, a little outside the human visible range, and have a filter to keep from recording that part.  Sensors without the filter can potentially pick up enough to notice differences in properties of things a little beyond the visible, so even if it looks green (or like trash) visually, some things can stand out as being different enough from the background environment to investigate closer.
  18. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from Artkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Of course they can intercept everything.  It's just that sometimes they're intercepting it on the ground using their whole AD system or other random equipment or facilities.  What MoD claims is true, but incomplete.
  19. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I meant to comment on that yesterday in the context of Steve's post about camouflage.
    With the cheap drones, they don't even necessarily need fancy thermal optics, just optics that reach a little outside the visible range.  Most commercial image sensors are sensitive out to to the near IR, a little outside the human visible range, and have a filter to keep from recording that part.  Sensors without the filter can potentially pick up enough to notice differences in properties of things a little beyond the visible, so even if it looks green (or like trash) visually, some things can stand out as being different enough from the background environment to investigate closer.
  20. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Of course they can intercept everything.  It's just that sometimes they're intercepting it on the ground using their whole AD system or other random equipment or facilities.  What MoD claims is true, but incomplete.
  21. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I've been convinced for a while it's a campaign season not Wacht am Rhein.  UKR getting stronger every day while at the same time degrading RU.   And learning.  And demoralizing RU forces as the rumor mill works its magic.  Just the ~20km2 captured around Bakhmut has Prig and RU army at each others' throats.  Good sign for the future.
    But at some point UKR has to take back a lot of land.  UKR surely hopes to do this via unhinging RU forces whenever & wherever possible as opposed to set piece battles.  Don't need to take a major city to cut supply lines coming from it, just need to cut the lines.  That will mean relatively deep penetrations at some point.
  22. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Chemical Warfare? 😂
  23. Upvote
    chrisl got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I just started - it's got footage of the surrender to the drone and the rest is an interview with one of the Ukrainians involved.  It's in Russian, but autosubtitle->autotranslate is sufficient to get the gist of what they're saying.
  24. Upvote
    chrisl reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is abandoned Soviet-time water reservoirs for watering of fields. Despite many small rivers and creeks around, Donbas is enough hot and dry place in summer, so in USSR times large "kolhozes" (state agricultural enterprises - usually they were in each village or on the base of several small villages) accumulating a water in these reservoires for the case of drought. But with collapsing of USSR and "kolhozes" infrastructure of such reservoirs declined. I think it could be filled with pumps and hoses system, connecting to closest source of water. And in the same way with pump and hoses the water then feed watering systems, placed on the fields. 
  25. Like
    chrisl got a reaction from benpark in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Something I've wondered about a bit is what those berm-enclosed spaces are for in the Ukrainian farm fields, like in the the picture that I left in the quote.  There was one near the battle of of the T, too.   They don't look like they're used as a divider between fields - the tree strips seem to serve that function. They look a bit like they could be seasonal reservoirs, but they don't have obvious inlets and outlets, or indications that they have variable water levels.  
    They do break up lines of sight and make somewhat natural defensive positions in the open spaces.  
    So does anybody know what they are/what they're called?
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