acrashb

I gotta be honest the technology which should be most concerning isnt the sexy unmanned or spicey missiles - although they definitely have punch.  It is the old fashion land mine.  Mines, especially if someone can implement smart mobile landmines, plus all that other stuff is positively lethal to manoeuvre.  Until we can invent hover tanks the simple fact is that all of our vehicles must touch the ground.  And well positioned explosives on the ground make manoeuvre very difficult.  Add in ISR, unmanned and PGM and one simply cannot create conditions for success.
Until something else comes along.

Of interest: https://mickryan.substack.com/p/is-there-a-revolution-in-military

So be it then. Kursk NPP is well within range of domestically produced Ukrainian stuff that go boom. You don't even need to hit the reactors to take it offline.
http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/national_energy_grid/russia/graphics/russian-energy-grid-2002-europe.jpg

How long now before drones start carrying long strips of (conductive) graphene and draping them onto Russian transmission lines? as NATO warplanes played around with in Serbia several decades ago.

http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/national_energy_grid/russia/graphics/Soviet_Electric_grid_82.jpg
 

And a tank company parked like that in Ukraine would get an Iskander, or an entire six pack of GMLRS in ten minutes or less.

A huge thanks for the great discussions over the past few days, enlightening on many subjects.  And a special thanks to ATH for stepping in over the past couple of weeks to add another angle to the point/counterpoints.  This forum is excellent.
 

Mass armor...really?  I mean sure they are employed but "mass" is a bit of a reach.  Then the question of "ok, so how many instances of insurgent ATGMs are we talking about?"  Swatting a dozen missiles when an opponent has a dozen missiles is a 100% success rate but hardly is definitive.
Again, I am sure APS is valuable to the IDF, no debate there. But as you, and others have noted repeatedly, what is going on with the IDF in that action may not translate to this one, nor may it translate to the next one.  If I were building a low level COIN force I would say the evidence is solid for APS.  I would not extend that deduction to a peer-on-peer conventional war.

They really don't need to be.  Even a few minutes apart and that column was screwed.  Trying to turn 15-20 trucks around to go back the way they came, while getting hit every 2-3 minutes is a recipe for disaster.  No one trains their logistics drivers to do formation manoeuvres, so if one were to try that you would likely wind up with vehicle pile ups.  Pushing through makes the most sense but see: FPVs.  As soon as trucks start getting hit, scared drivers are going to bail and run away.  And a decent ambush is going to try and hem in the column by hitting lead vehicles.
What this looks like is an old air attack drill, pull off under trees and try to disperse. Which results in getting plinked by FPVs one at a time.

I don’t know how to disperse when you have FPVs come at you from all directions.  It looks like the pulled into tree lines which is right in line with our own doctrine.  They likely abandoned the vehicles because once illuminated, there was little they could actually do against FPV travelling faster than they can.  Which way is “the enemy” when being hit from all directions?

The harsh discipline is a big influence in what makes the Russian effectively have a different morale effects table than other nations' units.  But there are other factors, which IMHO include at least the following significant ones.
1) fear of being captured by the Ukrainians; this creeps up consistently in the videos - RUS soldiers consistently talk about surrendering being the worst fate. This would be a huge factor as it eliminates the simplest option of getting away from combat. I do not know the reason for this belief - obviously we do not see everything on videos, but those we see do not suggest that the Ukrainians subject the POWs to atrocities. As opposed to Russians themselves, who seems to starve the prisoners to the edge of death.
2)Culturally low value of human life - I think that the evidence of this war in particular strongly supports the thesis, that Russians culturally assign low value to human life, which includes their own. It has long been a subject of jokes that Russians use human life as a disposable asset in lieu of machines * but I was not sure if it has any relation to reality. Well, it has.  A hypothesis suggests itself, that the Russian life feels so unpleasant and dangerous, that they are not willing to expend much effort to keep it. To a psychologist trained in the West, they probably exhibit symptoms of a depression.
 
*e.g. An old Polish joke recounts a dialogue in a Russian trench during WWII: Comrade commander, German tanks incoming. How many? 20. Take a grenade, make them run away. 5 minutes later: Comrade commander, the tanks have run away. Good lad, give the grenade back .

I don't think Ukraine is holding back on hitting airfields because they are too far down on the priority list 😉 Long range drone strikes have been successful because they are hitting undefended targets. Airfields are defended.

If this drone's prototype had been shown here, it would have been dismissed as not good enough because it is prone to easily get stuck in terrain. But sometimes something is enough, even if it only works in favorable circumstances.
Ukrainian ground kamikaze drone blows up Russian dugout.
 
 

That is my single largest fear.  US military ISR is at the discretion of the CinC and can be withdrawn with a pen stroke.  We know Ukraine has built a version of a JADC2 system but a lot of what it pulls is from the larger US C4ISR architecture.  Of that, strategic ISR, which is becoming extremely high resolution and real time, is the thing Ukraine cannot do on its own.  The good news is that operational and tactical ISR are now extremely cheap and effective.
In other news…this is where my country is at:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/ambassador-says-interactions-with-russia-quite-limited-but-not-unfriendly-1.6910126
“The Russians term us an ‘unfriendly’ country, that's the expression they use,” she said. “But I mean, from my perspective, we're not unfriendly, we're just waiting for them to change their policy.”
As if this was simply an issue of “policy”.  We are engaged in a proxy war where Canadian donated weapons are killing Russians and all we need is a “policy change” in Russia and everything will be all hunky d.  This is what 30 years of post Cold War thinking bought us.

The significant difference is that there are checks and balances in place in western militaries that serve to expose corruption..... and they are very effective. Furthermore, there are serious consequences anyone caught adopting corrupt practices.

Moreover, the problem with countries like Russia and Ukraine is that it's not only military shenanigans, it's literally everything; bribes for this, a top slice for that! It's not an exaggeration to state that its endemic. In the west, especially those nations within the EU, there are extensive regulations underpinned by EU laws governing how commerce operates including a significant degree of transparency, much more than there is in the US. The average citizen (not referring to anyone on this forum) often underestimate the fundamental role of regulatory law (as well as enforcement) to deter corruption to the extent that it is severely curtailed.
  
EDIT: What I'm getting at is that it's the total ineffectiveness of any governing framework (inc proper separation of powers ) that's at the real heart of the problem.
 

Viko is clearly Version 3 or 4 of the Standard Russian Troll who keeps putting in an appearance here now .  Why people even bother to converse this propaganda account I don't understand . Block it .

Krynki was one of the most effective places in burning russian vehicles.

ehhh... no? 
Russia (in the reversed scenario USA/NATO) isnt lobbing anything.
Belarus (Ukrain) is lobbing Russian (NATO) missiles just over the border in Bialystok (Belgorod) to prevent the opening of a new piece of the front near Grodno (Kharkiv) in a 2-year ongoing war. 
... am i reversing something wrong? 
 
(and yes I picked Belarus, as a perfect example for the turnaround wasn't there. Ukr could be used but it would be clouding as people would start screaming 'uninmaginable!).

Ooo baby, we got your unmanned on unmanned action right here folks. I think we might see more of this evolution in the next year.

The UA are running at about 1/3 RA losses but is this better equipment and training or worse Russian ISR?  The reasons are very complex and will take some time to sort out. I have been in the profession for 35 years and fully understand all the factors at play…but something is not right.  I have had that sense of growing unease for two years now.  I did not come to this deduction on Day 1 either.  It took months, the first year at least of watching this war closely to come to some of these hypothesis.  
The major problem is what was not happening but should be. It is far too easy to write off poor Russian tactics or Ukrainian adherence to Soviet doctrine - these narratives sound like western arrogance, which is unearned in a war like this one.  The West has not fought a war like this one since Korea, it is the height of arrogance to believe that we managed to keep doing everything right all these years later without a real test of our own doctrine.
So accepting that both Russia and Ukraine are behaving as they are for good reasons - some force generation driven, others force employment, we have to step back and ask ourselves “ok, what is really happening here?”
On break out and exploitation.  So at Kharkiv in Fall of ‘22 we saw maps and video graphics of the UA breakout and again it did not look right.  We did not see mech or heavy spearheads.  We saw them hold the shoulders while light and SOF did the exploit…why?  Was internal logistical limitations?  Or was it speed?  Again it was weird.  If we see an operational collapse at this point it will likely be an engineered collapse or corrosion.  My next question is that if one has to erode an entire enemy operational system to achieve breakout…what do I need mech for in the exploit?  I can do it with light, artillery, PGM and Unmanned.  The RA c-moves, even if they are heavy, will be detected well out, likely by space based/operational ISR and denial can be projected on those forces any number of ways.  Hardpoints maybe but isolated and cut off they pose limited threat.
Again we are at “what is the real value added of mech/armor”.  I do not think it is zero but it clearly is not as core as it once was - well except the RA who keep sending mech to die in company sizes to take 100m at a time.
To be honest, I am not even really concerned with this war, I am thinking about the next one.  Where is this trend going?  Some appear to think we will see re-equalization but I have some severe doubts.  The demon is out of the box. Too much money is going to be invested too fast after this war.  In the end I think Arquilla was right all along: Small many beat few large, finding beats flanking, swarming beats surging.
[ And my own axiom - Mass beats isolation, precision beats mass, mass precision beats everything.  Sorry, could not resist]

NYT article on the rapidly approaching decision point for U.S approving western weapons fired on Russian soil. Interesting justification for nuclear rhetoric being empty, Russia won't signal rising on the nuclear escalation ladder by attacking NATO directly to stop arms shipments. Terrifying idea but makes sense.
The attacks against radar sites is mentioned which I quoted, but no response on how Ukraine reacted. I do wonder if it's a trade off situation, Ukraine stops attacking early warning sites, if the U.S lets Ukraine defend Kharkiv.
I mean it is the 2nd largest city in Ukraine.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-weapons.html
 

Saw that on CNN... https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/29/europe/ukraine-war-us-tanks-intl/index.html
Interesting and they are correct, the Abrams is only part of the US Army's battlefield system and is not meant to fight alone.  Goes right to @The_Capt's desk pounding that armored vehicles are really at a disadvantage in this type of fight.
Of course, we also didn't give them enough of them to really make a difference.
 

Unsurprising.  For the record I am a Gen X, caught between two overly entitled and self-righteous generations - one we are putting into homes, the other through university.
We have tolerated breaches of "non-aggression and potential genocide" before (see Rawanda, Yugoslavia, Syria and Sudan), so before one climbs on the soapbox, check your history books. 
You are free to hold onto your position all you like, but do not come in here and "missionary" someone who has been playing these games a lot longer and a lot closer to the heat that you ever will.  I am as free as you are to cast cautious eyes on Ukraine for every reason we did not pull them into NATO before 2022.  On this thread alone I have seen: antisemitism, xenophobic anti-immigration, continual western shaming, possible violations of LOAC, reckless targeting and reports of corruption. 
Ukraine is a nation worth fighting for and supporting, but high minded principles will only carry so far.  Our interest align..to a point. And always keep an eye on partners and never pretend that they are just like us in every way.

I respect the right of my elders to be grumpy curmudgeons, but if a statement about how the Western refusal to allow Ukrain to act according to international law makes other people doubt how many other terms of international contracts some Western nations would adhere to makes you want to sit idly by and watch an invasion with genocidal or at least culturally genocidal intent, then it crosses the line into "boomer tantrum".
Here are my reasons of why we support Ukraine.
a) it supports the UN charta, which has practical legal benefits
b) the ethical and moral arguments fall more in favor of it than against it
c) in a Machiavellian sense we are destroying the military capacity of an enemy that has been actively working on destroying the West for at least 15 years (albeit with non-conventional means), which support international terrorism and would be a potential ally / supporter / provider of military goods to another active enemy of the West in another war, like China, and it is done at the minimum cost imaginable
d) it allows to massively improve our own military potential via observation and remote learning as well as investments in production facilities, which have been woefully neglected despite active enemies building up their own potential and messaging their clear intent of careless murder on a global scale
That's why we are bankrolling it. 
And yes, the AD ambushed across the border were the best thing since sliced bread for Ukraine and Western politicians throwing a tantrum over it is neither legally not militarily nor politically rational.
 

In this case I think, Bild like a broken clock, which shows true time twice for a day. 
Probably you are about this (in Ukrainian retelling):
When Ukraine used Patriot missiles agains Russian flight order as far as on 13th of May 2023 in Bryansk oblast and shot down two EW Mi-8, Su-34 and Su-35, Berlin and Washington were angry. They threaten to stop supply if this repeat. Unbelievable, but this explains a lot. This is proves one more, how wrong decisions making in western capitals prolongs this war. Russia is vulnerable, it can be defeated, but they don't allow Ukraine to give proper repulse, so Russian bombs still hit Ukrainian malls and kindergardens.    

Looks like this is true, because since this attack there wasn't any similar successes. Ukrainian General Staff didn't recognize this success neither there not now, though AD battalion command vehicle, which unit conducted this attack has markings of these aircrafts. 
And here some more:
NATO is discussing participation in sky guarding over western Ukraine, Bild reports. 
This idea supports Estonia, UK, Poland, Canada, Lithuania, France
Against: USA and Germany
 
We have a joke: any US statement now starts with words: US concerning about... , US afraids that... , US considrers it premature..., US do not support. 
Putin made serious mistake. To restore influence of Russia in the world like USSR, he had to attack NATO directly through Baltic states. Spineless western democracies would drown in endless discuissions and offers "immediately to listen other side to achieve compromisses" when Russian tanks rolled further west. 
It's good the West is gradually healing itself from own phobias. But the remedy is prohibitely expensive - the blood of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. And we are paying it cost  

Careful.  F-16s are no more of a magic bullet than the M1s/Challies/Leo2s. And they die a lot more visibly.

I am assuming you guys did some IP sleuthing…careful with them VPNs though.  Zeleban makes sense, the guy was banned in Jan and this new guys account pops up right around the same time.  If it was Zeleban his narrative has deepened.  I was willing to buy into fatigue but claiming Bucha wasn’t criminal or somehow the Ukrainian government’s fault is crossing a line.