aka_tom_w

Why is it I keep thinking the CIA or the FBI might be wanting to read this thread and check out that topo map of Maximuses' home area? I don't know ? I think there is something bordering on questionable, to not only want to plan a battle around your home neighboorhood, but ALSO post your idea's about it here? just curious that's all? why does the term security risk keep coming to mind... -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Is Ghostone the ONLY to to be posting here that has the game other than the beta testers? you Lucky lucky bastard...... -tom w Here's hopeing many more receive their game ealry this week! ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Mikeydz: ck. Hopefully this will satisfy Tom that the 3rd and following shots, under ideal conditions, will have high hit chances. But remember that these numbers were generated with ideal conditions for the Sherman, which was not under any fire from the enemy, at tanks that were pretty much sitting ducks. DON'T expect that "firing range" numbers like these would or should apply in combat conditions. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> WOW thanks Mikeydz for the research, I never had any doubt that each shot was more likely to hit than the one before it. And Thanks Steve for your prompt and informative reply. <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Big Time Software: Tom, it is just statistical luck/bad luck. ...... So what you see is statistically correct even if your mind says that it is wrong. While there are plenty of things in CM where opinions have some validity, when we are talking about straight probability math wins out every time. Steve<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> I have no doubt that the odds/chance to hit increase from the first shot to second shot to the third shot. No doubt at all about that as posted. I think Mikeydz's test was very informative. And I thank him for posting the results of his test. What did we learn, the game when targeting told him there was a 60% chance to hit, we see 53 shots out of 100 hit. OK Again I would just like to state my opinion, I understand that Steve says my opinion is not a factor here because the results are generated by math. I hope it OK to disagree on this one here. I understand that every third shot, no matter who or what side fires it has the same increased chance to hit. As reported by Charles though the chance to hit on the third shot is only in the 80% range and as we can see from Mikeydz's well documented research there is an 85% chance to hit on the third shot and 100% chance to hit on the forth shot. My suggestion here is that the math/calculation/algorythym/game (whatever) should be tweaked to calculate more third shot hits in the 90% -99% hit probably range, to balance out how many times a first shot hit comes up. (I also feel the math models too many first shot hits) I'm happy to see there were only 53 first shot hits out of 100 when the "odds" said 60%. It is my opinion that the MATH models too many first shot hits and too it models too many third shot misses, so I'm saying change the math. I really do love this game and I'm pretty sure my lone opinion on this matter will not result in any tweaking of the math or algorythyms, so mostly I'm just posting again so that I'm not misunderstood. I STILL LOVE this game I figure I should have read about this somewhere and since I don't have the manual yet can I ask if experience of the tank crew gives any added "chance" to hit probability in the algorythym that determines the hit result when, say a vertran crew or a green crew targets the main gun? It would be interesting to know what modifier applies to a green crew and what modifier applies to a veteran crew if there is one. Since I don't have my game yet, I think someone mentioned earlier that in light of anything else to do some of us might treat the Demo like a fly we just caught and want to dissect by "pulling the wings of the little bugger" and seeing what else could be dismembered to figure out what makes it fly. Hopefully this is understood by all to be in the best interest of the game and mostly because we are all dying to get our hands on the real thing so we can actually PLAY it. Many thanks for all your patience BTS. Thanks for all the reply posts to this forum Steve and Charles. And Mikeydz, GREAT research! thanks And never forget LUCK, is a huge factor in tank duals..... -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

OK I re-kindled this thread because of this post: "Scott C Member posted 06-17-2000 01:14 PM ------------------------------------------------------------------------ I just finished a game of CE vs. the AI. AI was Germans with +75% forces. They only got 4 StuGs, though they did end up with a grand total of 15 infantry platoons. I nailed 3 of the StuGs for the loss of 1 Sherman. The final (buttoned!) StuG came into sight right at the end of a turn. During the orders phase, I check LOS for all my (unbuttoned!) Shermans. Range is about 250m. All 4 are hull down with at least 60% hit chance and OK to Good kill chance. The results after one turn: Shermans fire 10 shots. Closest miss ~20m. StuG fires 4 shots, brewing 4 Shermans." tom w continues: I find it highly improbably (although clearly not impossible in the game) that one StuG would have four first shot hits in 1 minute. and four Shermans would miss all attempts to hit. I'm not the least concerned about how the result of the hit is modeled. I would say richottetes and penetrations without result and KO's are modeled extremely well, but this my point.... Again it is my opinion that there are too many first shot hits and WAY too many third shot misses (in clear LOS at 250- 300 meteres, both target and gun stationary) and I think that a 1 in 5 (20%) chance of a miss after the first two consecutive "ranging" shots that miss, is too high a chance to miss on the third shot. I had been proposing a 90-95% chance to hit on the third shot in the clear at 300 meters after two first shot misses. Hi Sabot, I would be curious to hear what your opinion of the above example is. I have never played CC but I love RTS game and think Age of Empires is fun and challenging, so I'm in no way knocking CC. I'm just curious as to how it works and how tank gunnery in that game is modeled (no flaming here just wondering) and how the above 4 first shot hits from a turretless StuG in under one minute appeals to your sense of what it may have actually been like in the REALITY of WW II tank duals? Sabot, thanks for your insight.. (and welcome ) -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Screaming Demon: at the start of first tun is when you perform your recon isnt (assuming this is the first time you played a scenario) it? like a probe sort of to see where the enemy is and what he has got.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> I too would really like to see a much expanded role for the recon units. There are scout cars and it would be cool to actually use them to see what the map looked like over the next hill. We can still use them (I assume in on BIG maps) to determine where the enemy troop strength is. I plan to design a scenario that will (somehow, not sure how yet, but I'll figure it out) penalize players who are not careful and don't recon their forward advance before attacking. There must be a way to do this in the scenario editor. I plan to put those scout cars to GOOD use in my DYO scenarios. -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by GhostOne: Just received CM from USPS this afternoon and thought I would post. Didn't recieve the poster however so am wondering if it will be under separate cover. When you recieve USPS mail that has: Distribution Center Williston, Vt. on the return address, you'll know it's Xmas in June. Thanks BTS..... Off to play. Ghost <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> Can you give us your ipression of the Manual? What does the manual look like? What does it cover? Questions Questions He's probaly so busy playing we won't hear from him again for a week by which time we'll all have our own copies -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

This was such an informative thread I thought I would re-visit it and re-read it and bump it to the top for anyone new to the Game. All people new to this game could benefit from the insights in this thread. -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

check out this thread: We have been over this one once before. And Charles did answer with some stats... http://www.battlefront.com/discuss/Forum1/HTML/004572.html ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Bobbaro: Well, I agree that there would be some benifit to our stinging hides for having it explained how the hit machinery works. There should be improving accuracy on subsequent shots up to some limit, especially against stationary targets. Now, that said, there is the counter accuracy effect of being shot at and expecially for near misses or actual hits deflected by protection. So, what does the model include? A good question even if the answer includes fuzzy logic. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> I understand it has been explained that there is increasing chance to hit after each subsquent shot. How much? I'm not sure, but Charles has stated he modeled an increased chance to hit with each subsquent shot. Ican't find the post now, but I'll look for it. -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

You might find this intertesting: Scott C reports that this happened all in ONE minute: "Scott C Member posted 06-17-2000 01:14 PM I just finished a game of CE vs. the AI. AI was Germans with +75% forces. They only got 4 StuGs, though they did end up with a grand total of 15 infantry platoons. I nailed 3 of the StuGs for the loss of 1 Sherman. The final (buttoned!) StuG came into sight right at the end of a turn. During the orders phase, I check LOS for all my (unbuttoned!) Shermans. Range is about 250m. All 4 are hull down with at least 60% hit chance and OK to Good kill chance. The results after one turn: Shermans fire 10 shots. Closest miss ~20m. StuG fires 4 shots, brewing 4 Shermans. ------------------ Questions, comments, arguments, refutations, criticisms, and/or sea stories?" All that happened in ONE minute! I can't imagine this game the way it is in 5 minute increments the fate of the entire scenario could very easily hinge on one good or bad luck streak in ONE 5 minute turn. No, I like the one minute turns and think the WHOLE package works really well together as a GREAT WW II squad level, single tank turn based sim-move wargame. Its the BEST AI I have ever played. -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Bobbaro: In VoT I have felt that the infantry gun should do better than the tanks on their shots when they are mine and that it does too well when it isn't. I am totally sure a decient testing of the statistics would prove out as Steve has avowed it would-- no special help to the AI. It seems that a stationary gun should out shoot the tanks. They should have range cards etc. what ever those kinds of units do to get an edge. Tanks running on the fly should find ranging in first shots a little more difficult.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> I really don't doubt the AI, I'm sure there is no cheating and no cheat code. What I want to know is how "random" is the calculation that determines the out come of four first shot hits from a turretless tank in under one minute, be it AI or Human or PBEM, it matters not. That is I admit, a VERY lucky, result. maybe the SAME time code was used for each random result calculation based on time and so the results of each shot would be the same. It just seems "too" lucky to me to take out four hull down Sherms from a turretless (buttoned?) StuG in under a minute? -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Scott C: I don't think this is any evidence of a fault in the program, just a very unlikely outcome. Consider that, if the first-shot-hit probability is only 1/3, four consecutive first shots will all hit one time in 81. Also, only two of the Shermans got off third shots, so a rough calculation indicates the odds of all ten shots missing might be something on the order of one in 100,000. There have been well over 15,000 downloads of the demo, so counting all the times the scenario was likely played in the beta and gold demos, the odds of something like this happenning once aren't that bad - probably in the range of a few percent. It's highly improbable, yes, but there have been a LOT of games of CE played, and I'm sure 4v1 fights have not been uncommon. Actually, if nothing like this had happened, it would be evidence of a fault, since there are so many wildly improbable outcomes that some of them would have had to happen. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> What I am disagreeing with is the way the third shot miss is modeled. If it has been reported as high as 20% ( 1 in 5) I still think that is too high a chance to miss on the third shot especially after two previous ranging shots that they watched miss. And four first shot hits in a row in one minute against four hull down tanks, from a turretless tank? (how far apart were all your sherms? Did the StuG have to actually move its chassis to turn to shoot at the last one or two?) if you told me that the odds on that are 1 in 100,000 and you just got unlucky then as I said luck still plays a big role, BUT still FOUR first shot KO's in 1 minute makes me wonder how the randomizing factor that determines the out come of the shot is "seeded" or created and is it really totally random? Just asking questions that's all. This is still the BEST wargame I have ever played and I can't wait to get my copy to play it day and night, BUT Four First Shot KO's in one minute? Makes me wonder, (WOW was that ever unlucky!) -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> [This message has been edited by aka_tom_w (edited 06-17-2000).] [This message has been edited by aka_tom_w (edited 06-17-2000).]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Juju: Make that turn 9. I'll get those Germans to come over yet. They'll have to now. victory level just went up to 88%, hehe.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> Do the Krauts have any + 25% force pool additions? If not they are TOAST! if the americans grab three of the four victory flags early the Krauts will have to bust their asses to get them back once the yanks get entrenched. Becareful of the "we'll let them ALL into the church then shell the hell out of it" trap. good luck I can't believe 9 turns and no contact, every time I play that one, all the tanks are usually ko'd by the end of the third or forth turn -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Scott C: I just finished a game of CE vs. the AI. AI was Germans with +75% forces. They only got 4 StuGs, though they did end up with a grand total of 15 infantry platoons. I nailed 3 of the StuGs for the loss of 1 Sherman. The final (buttoned!) StuG came into sight right at the end of a turn. During the orders phase, I check LOS for all my (unbuttoned!) Shermans. Range is about 250m. All 4 are hull down with at least 60% hit chance and OK to Good kill chance. The results after one turn: Shermans fire 10 shots. Closest miss ~20m. StuG fires 4 shots, brewing 4 Shermans. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> Thanks for the AAR that is very enlightening.. Well I have campaigned on this one before. I feel strongly that there are too many first shot hits. FOUR in a row on four different targets in one minute is WAY too many. I strongly believe the are far too many third shot misses. Right now at a certain range (300-400 meters ?) I think it has been reported by Charles that there is a 20% chance of a third shot miss. Thats 1 in 5, WAY too high, third shot hits in the clear at that range should be closer to 90% - 95% . Of course if I state that I should back it up with stats and facts and figures and i don't have them so I totally admit that that is just my personal opinion. BUT four first shot hits in ROW and a 20% chance to miss on the third shot after two consecutive rangeing shots? I have to wonder, there is still a GREAT deal of luck involved in tank duals and we would all be best advised to minimize that "luck" element by doing things like getting 4 to 1 odds on that StuG with four HULL DOWN sherms. Well it was a VERY good plan and the oods should have been in your favour BUT MAN! were you ever unlucky! Talk about AI horse shoes where the sun doesn't shine! (BTS: are you guys SURE there is no cheat code in the AI? I know you have sworn there is NOT, just kidding ) Does anyone know what the chances of a first shot hit are, at 250 - 300 meters? 50 - 50? (you did say you had a %60 chance to hit, so that means 4 times you missed, rolling the dice to get a %60 chance to hit) Is that info in the manual? Is the randonizing factor in the algorythym the time clock on your computer? If so does the time clock change ENOUGH to render a different result when four shots are made within that close a time frame. (i.e. four first shot hits to brew up all for Sherms) What is the randomizing factor that "seeds" the odds results generating algorythym? I assume its the computers internal time clock? Is this covered in the manual? -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> [This message has been edited by aka_tom_w (edited 06-17-2000).] [This message has been edited by aka_tom_w (edited 06-17-2000).]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Mark IV: Anyway, I'm with aka_tom_w on this one as the threads will show. I think it would be cool. I spend a lot of time reading topos in the wild and I love them, but they're not the same as being there, and they are often out of date and wrong. Aerial photos are very misleading, too <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> Yes Mark IV and I have been down this road (slipery slope) before. Sure we want more FOW and more Terrain FOW in the game, and Steve and Charles have admited it would be cool too. But I totally believe them when they say it will be VERY difficult to pull off. Oh well maybe soomeday in the future (and thats years not months) ... -tom w [This message has been edited by aka_tom_w (edited 06-18-2000).]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Formerly Babra: We're all impatient. Relax. I'm guessing that if the game was in your hands you wouldn't bother picking on dyslexic kids and other favoured targets of opportunity. Manners are free, as grandma used to say.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> Good manners never go out of style.. I say save the flaming for the battlefield where it is a really fun thing to try to fry something, (anything) with one of those fragile flame throwers. -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Doug Beman: Chugachugachug DjB<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> I think I can I think I can the Little Engine that Could... DID!! Now step right up and buy your self a ticket to the world's most effective set of mind control agorythym's and kiss the rest of your life, as you know it, good-bye! -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Capt. Manieri: If I keep at it....yeah it will.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> soon -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by buddy: Good points all! That's really the only thing that bugged me slightly.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> Hi Buddy It has been discused and I agree completely, I would love to see the map "represent" what you think is there, as per the 2D "road map" the commander may have had of the area, but maybe when you actually recon the area and get los to some things like bridges or buildings, they are rubble or blown up, and the map changes when the first friendly unit with LOS looks at them then the map you see changes to reflect what your units can actually see. Please read those other two threads and you can see some of the idea's that other folks have come up with. -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Just thought this blast from the past would be fun for the newer members to check out. GREAT humour! -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Hi These are not new ideas. Please check out these two threads for discusions that have already taken place about this concept. It has been refered to as relative spotting and I don't doubt for a minute that it is VERY difficult to code. But some of us hae also dreamt of this "great" idea that makes you use units to recon the map and see if what you see on the map is really there. Please read these two threads to see how this idea has been dicussed and what BTS has said about it in the past. http://www.battlefront.com/discuss/Forum1/HTML/003974.html http://www.battlefront.com/discuss/Forum1/HTML/003938.html hope they show up as links -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I think there are a few of us in the Toronto area. I hope to get mine maybe wed -thur or Fri next week. I'm sure we will all be posting when they arrive. -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Thanks guys I now have a good idea about what the composition of a reinforced battalion is like. I will be designing one completely delightful scenario the MINUTE I get that scenario editor! I plan to build the most wonderfully challenging,fun and balanced fictional scenario you have ever seen. The complete idea has already been sketched out and I can't wait. Thanks again. -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Shultz says.... "you Jolly Joker!!" thick german accent implied -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

WOW !!! Now thats Service They split the forums last night as well and now the Patch is Posted I hope that Steve and Charles make lots and lots of money, and that BTS becomes wildly profitable! they both deserve it!!! thanks again -tom w ------------------ <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR> "Have you thanked BTS by buying your SECOND copy of CM yet?" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>