Elmar Bijlsma

Been a minute since i dipped my toes into this thread, but I have questions about the Moscow attack I cannot figure out.
 
So, according to one of the Tajiks confessing after a thorough beating, he was a rando contracted for the attack via Telegram two weeks ahead of time and subsequently armed for it by persons unknown to him.
But recalling the video of the attackers entering the hallway calmly and at a steady interval, I am somewhat dubious these are randos with a mere two weeks notice. The behaviour just doesn't line up with what I would expect from a bunch of untrained strangers roped into the attack. To me, it looks like trained fighters who know what to do and are familiar with each other.
And then, in a rare act of competence, Russian security services manage to identify and find the guys involved (who I remind you seem to have had no previous terrorism ties!)  and who aren't lying low or heading to the Stans but headed to a place they'll stand out more than in Moscow.
 
Now, Russia grabbing the first ethnically appropriate patsies to beat a confession out of is hardly unheard of, but that might become inconvenient if ISIS-K starts parading the actual perpetrators around. So that doesn't make sense.
My other line of thinking is that ISIS are not known for working directly but via middlemen. What if the middlemen were Russian? But then, what exactly is their play? Sowing chaos? They hardly needed terror attacks to get their security services more power to do whatever they want.
To blame Ukraine? Maybe, but then ISIS-K claims it and taints that scenario, even though clearly they are trying to play the Ukraine card anyway. But it seems a lot of trouble to go through for dubious payoff. Not that confusion isn't bread and butter of Russian PsyOps.
 
I don't know what to make of it all except that assuming the Russians are lying scumbags capable of any depravity has so far served me too well to start believing their official line.

Oh, I agree it doesn't make sense. But none of it does.
False flag is too messy for too little pay-off.
Real ISIS attack seems to be most likely, as indeed seems consensus here, but I'd be amazed if the currently nabbed guys are it. Which doesn't make sense either.

Frogfoot having a brown pants moment:
https://www.dumpert.nl/item/100079415_aa2ca275
Apologies if this was already posted. I haven't seen it before in my usual feeds but Dumpert is rarely among the first to post this sort of stuff. So I may very well have missed it in the usual places, including this thread.

I question if the drone operator wasn't doing more harm than good. His directions are vague and untimely.
The Ukrainians are holed up near the dead Russian? I think there's probably more than one dead Russian in that field and the one near the Ukrainian trench is probably not the corpse the Russian attackers would seen as they went forward. This presents the attackers with (incorrect) information that they cannot ignore or even question: They just walked past a Ukr position.
 
Same with the direction of "to your left". Left of our line of advance? Left of where my body is proned towards? Left of where I am looking? Left of where I was looking 5 seconds ago? Because that's the time it takes to pass along information. For that matter, left of where any of my fireteam was looking at any point? None of it is usable information and is only likely to wrongfoot the recipient. Note that they eventually face away from the threat! Meanwhile the dipstick drone guy has compass right in his view! There's a reason you are trained to read a compass!
 
And again with his "He's reloading". He's late on making the call, understandable as he needs to interpret the actions he sees from afar before he passes the info along. But that is the problem, he passes it on to his buddy who repeats it into a radio. By the time anyone on the business end even gets the word the Ukr is reloading, the Ukr has reloaded and is ready to work. As a result any Russian acting on this word of warning does his heroics at the absolute very worst moment to do it.
 
If that drone operator used his tablet to download and view porn instead of giving guidance to the attack, the attackers would have had a better chance.

I question if the drone operator wasn't doing more harm than good. His directions are vague and untimely.
The Ukrainians are holed up near the dead Russian? I think there's probably more than one dead Russian in that field and the one near the Ukrainian trench is probably not the corpse the Russian attackers would seen as they went forward. This presents the attackers with (incorrect) information that they cannot ignore or even question: They just walked past a Ukr position.
 
Same with the direction of "to your left". Left of our line of advance? Left of where my body is proned towards? Left of where I am looking? Left of where I was looking 5 seconds ago? Because that's the time it takes to pass along information. For that matter, left of where any of my fireteam was looking at any point? None of it is usable information and is only likely to wrongfoot the recipient. Note that they eventually face away from the threat! Meanwhile the dipstick drone guy has compass right in his view! There's a reason you are trained to read a compass!
 
And again with his "He's reloading". He's late on making the call, understandable as he needs to interpret the actions he sees from afar before he passes the info along. But that is the problem, he passes it on to his buddy who repeats it into a radio. By the time anyone on the business end even gets the word the Ukr is reloading, the Ukr has reloaded and is ready to work. As a result any Russian acting on this word of warning does his heroics at the absolute very worst moment to do it.
 
If that drone operator used his tablet to download and view porn instead of giving guidance to the attack, the attackers would have had a better chance.

No. Europeans just bored of illegal non-europeans migration, impunity of migrants, their roistering, crawling islamazation and leftist speeches "we need more migrants for culture enrichment". They bored to feed all these agressive, laizy robs from own taxes, which as gratitude then conduct knife attacks in schools like in Dublin recently, trade dugs on the streets and turned out many places in Eurpoean capitals in scrap-heap.
When I see dozen- and hundred thousands Muslim migrant marches in Germany, England and France, supporting Palestina (really supporting Hamas attack), carring flags of Khalifat, Al-Caeda etc, when I see speeches of migrants in Germany "We need Sharia right here", when I see landing of hunderds Africans in Spain and Italy, when I read how German leftist human rights organizations sponsored contrabandists, who transfer migrants through Mediterranian Sea, I also would be vote for anybody, who stop this s...t or to protect own country from this new hidden Arab invasion. 
So, this is maybe not good for us now, but this is good for long perspective to keep Europe as Europe, where we can celebrate Christmass as Christian holyday and eat a pork, whithout imposed shame that doing this "we offend Muslim's feelings, so we shouldn't do this". Else Europens will no more a masters on own land and will turn out soon themeselves in reservations.
By the way after "right-wing" spectre G.Meloni became a prime-minister of Italy, many in Ukraine expected that Italy will more turn into Russian side, but all happened viсe versa.

I am very sorry to hear about Girkin's suicide and/or tax fraud conviction.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67467830

I am very sorry to hear about Girkin's suicide and/or tax fraud conviction.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67467830

I am very sorry to hear about Girkin's suicide and/or tax fraud conviction.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67467830

I am very sorry to hear about Girkin's suicide and/or tax fraud conviction.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67467830

I am very sorry to hear about Girkin's suicide and/or tax fraud conviction.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67467830

I was a little hesitant to advertise my own tool here but... given that I actually promised to deliver it in this thread some 2000 pages ago, the cold season is now in full swing (time for making maps and actually playing CM!) ... and we were discussing means by which aliens would invade recently:
If you are interested in automatically generating maps from OpenStreetMap data, CMAutoEditor now has a profile for CMBS. "Automatically" means, CMAutoEditor converts OpenStreetMap data into CM tiles and generates the map by automatizing the clicking in the Scenario Editor.
Let's just keep in mind that depicting actual places in an actual war might be a sensitive topic, especially for the Ukrainian forumites, so be a little circumspect when doing that. Still, if it is not asking too much, if someone knows about good elevation data for Ukraine (i.e. not globally available satellite data like SRTM or ALOS), please contact me.
 

Just because you decline to fight the enemy in a unfavourable place, does not mean you get to fight him in a favourable place.
The whole draw to Bakhmut was that Putin needed that headline beyond all reason. It was the place that crippled the Russian army's offensive operations elsewhere. Let Putin have Bakhmut, and the headlines he craved, and his commanders might just have been able to pick their next spot to attack. And it wouldn't have been the easily defended hills west of Bakhmut, I can all but guarantee you that.
And there's the political angle. The long fight over Bakhmut was wildly damaging to Putin's regime internationally and within Russia. There was a pseudo-coup attempt! That's a pretty good result for Ukraine fighting for Bakhmut.
 
To me, fighting in Bakhmut is a no brainer.

Just because you decline to fight the enemy in a unfavourable place, does not mean you get to fight him in a favourable place.
The whole draw to Bakhmut was that Putin needed that headline beyond all reason. It was the place that crippled the Russian army's offensive operations elsewhere. Let Putin have Bakhmut, and the headlines he craved, and his commanders might just have been able to pick their next spot to attack. And it wouldn't have been the easily defended hills west of Bakhmut, I can all but guarantee you that.
And there's the political angle. The long fight over Bakhmut was wildly damaging to Putin's regime internationally and within Russia. There was a pseudo-coup attempt! That's a pretty good result for Ukraine fighting for Bakhmut.
 
To me, fighting in Bakhmut is a no brainer.

Just because you decline to fight the enemy in a unfavourable place, does not mean you get to fight him in a favourable place.
The whole draw to Bakhmut was that Putin needed that headline beyond all reason. It was the place that crippled the Russian army's offensive operations elsewhere. Let Putin have Bakhmut, and the headlines he craved, and his commanders might just have been able to pick their next spot to attack. And it wouldn't have been the easily defended hills west of Bakhmut, I can all but guarantee you that.
And there's the political angle. The long fight over Bakhmut was wildly damaging to Putin's regime internationally and within Russia. There was a pseudo-coup attempt! That's a pretty good result for Ukraine fighting for Bakhmut.
 
To me, fighting in Bakhmut is a no brainer.

Just because you decline to fight the enemy in a unfavourable place, does not mean you get to fight him in a favourable place.
The whole draw to Bakhmut was that Putin needed that headline beyond all reason. It was the place that crippled the Russian army's offensive operations elsewhere. Let Putin have Bakhmut, and the headlines he craved, and his commanders might just have been able to pick their next spot to attack. And it wouldn't have been the easily defended hills west of Bakhmut, I can all but guarantee you that.
And there's the political angle. The long fight over Bakhmut was wildly damaging to Putin's regime internationally and within Russia. There was a pseudo-coup attempt! That's a pretty good result for Ukraine fighting for Bakhmut.
 
To me, fighting in Bakhmut is a no brainer.

Just because you decline to fight the enemy in a unfavourable place, does not mean you get to fight him in a favourable place.
The whole draw to Bakhmut was that Putin needed that headline beyond all reason. It was the place that crippled the Russian army's offensive operations elsewhere. Let Putin have Bakhmut, and the headlines he craved, and his commanders might just have been able to pick their next spot to attack. And it wouldn't have been the easily defended hills west of Bakhmut, I can all but guarantee you that.
And there's the political angle. The long fight over Bakhmut was wildly damaging to Putin's regime internationally and within Russia. There was a pseudo-coup attempt! That's a pretty good result for Ukraine fighting for Bakhmut.
 
To me, fighting in Bakhmut is a no brainer.

Just because you decline to fight the enemy in a unfavourable place, does not mean you get to fight him in a favourable place.
The whole draw to Bakhmut was that Putin needed that headline beyond all reason. It was the place that crippled the Russian army's offensive operations elsewhere. Let Putin have Bakhmut, and the headlines he craved, and his commanders might just have been able to pick their next spot to attack. And it wouldn't have been the easily defended hills west of Bakhmut, I can all but guarantee you that.
And there's the political angle. The long fight over Bakhmut was wildly damaging to Putin's regime internationally and within Russia. There was a pseudo-coup attempt! That's a pretty good result for Ukraine fighting for Bakhmut.
 
To me, fighting in Bakhmut is a no brainer.

Just because you decline to fight the enemy in a unfavourable place, does not mean you get to fight him in a favourable place.
The whole draw to Bakhmut was that Putin needed that headline beyond all reason. It was the place that crippled the Russian army's offensive operations elsewhere. Let Putin have Bakhmut, and the headlines he craved, and his commanders might just have been able to pick their next spot to attack. And it wouldn't have been the easily defended hills west of Bakhmut, I can all but guarantee you that.
And there's the political angle. The long fight over Bakhmut was wildly damaging to Putin's regime internationally and within Russia. There was a pseudo-coup attempt! That's a pretty good result for Ukraine fighting for Bakhmut.
 
To me, fighting in Bakhmut is a no brainer.

Just because you decline to fight the enemy in a unfavourable place, does not mean you get to fight him in a favourable place.
The whole draw to Bakhmut was that Putin needed that headline beyond all reason. It was the place that crippled the Russian army's offensive operations elsewhere. Let Putin have Bakhmut, and the headlines he craved, and his commanders might just have been able to pick their next spot to attack. And it wouldn't have been the easily defended hills west of Bakhmut, I can all but guarantee you that.
And there's the political angle. The long fight over Bakhmut was wildly damaging to Putin's regime internationally and within Russia. There was a pseudo-coup attempt! That's a pretty good result for Ukraine fighting for Bakhmut.
 
To me, fighting in Bakhmut is a no brainer.

Possibly most effective use of DPICM seen yet:
 

And arm them with what?  T-34s pulled from monuments?  Mosin Nagants?  Maybe there are a few IS-2s still floating around on a back lot.
I know they’re not quite down to that, but they’ve burned through decades of Soviet and post-Soviet production and are nowhere near being a manufacturing powerhouse to build back up.  They don’t have a huge base of non-military manufacturing that they can convert.  China is the only real source they have for manufacturing resources, and they’re not being particularly generous.  And Russia has been suffering brain drain for three decades.
 
And who will train the newly mobilized on the higher tech equipment?  Maybe it doesn’t matter, because it will all have been destroyed or fallen out of the sky by the time the next wave shows up.

Ugh, this whole discussion line is starting to sound like info-nihilism, "we can't possible get any truth."  Which is almost always followed up by "so I will insert my own."
 

All this only works if the enemy is not reacting, its like a manual, easy to write and print. Reality is different often enough.
The moment a unit with resources spots these vehicles ATGM crews will move out, FPV drones will cause mobility kills and artillery will do the rest.
The vehicles wont do much supporting after that and will just be lost with little additional gain.
Especially since the main fighting happens in areas direct fire vehicles have little effect, as the Russian Mobik is a creature of the earth, living deep below the surface
Without good Intel that the enemy lacks certain assets or forcing conditions in which these are occupied/disabled beforehand, staying in the field is suicide.
Against AI in CM it'll work, against a competent opponent you will lose what you expose!
 

Well, this kind of talk works because it is, in fact, largely true.
People have bills to pay, kids to take care of, all sorts of small or large personal tragedies, you name it. The fact that other people elsewhere have a far worse lot doesn't solve any of their problems and doesn't improve their perceived situation. Problems are always on a scale that is relative to one's own experience - for a child that loses its favorite toy this is the worst tragedy imaginable although it sounds trivial to us.
Not meant as an excuse for Fico but that is the space politicians have to navigate and IMHO failure to acknowledge this (that's not the same as act on it) paves the way for the populists of this world.