Breaking (multiple levels) Red on Red!

[John Kettler]

The suspected Spetsnaz are indeed just that, IMO. Note the presence of the SpecOps issue only VSK-94 suppressed sniper rifle (link) in both pictures. Of course, it never hurts if the embed says they're present and gives the unit name. Apparent are throwaway RPG-22 and what I think is RPO-A on the guys on and near the BTRs.

http://www.warfare.ru/?lang=&catid=275&linkid=2285

Also, I confirm ID of missile carcass as SS-21 Tochka/SCARAB. Note that Russian weapon export catalogue confirms submunition warhead, too.

http://www.warfare.ru/?lang=&catid=265&linkid=1704

Russian nonexportable versions, in addition to the unitary HE frag warhead listed, could also instead be fitted with an NBC warhead, or possibly FAE or SFW.

The _Red_Rage,

You're welcome, and I thought the Google Georgia thing was a joke! OTOH, much humor stems from the discomfiture of others. Wow! Talk about a gaffe!

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

Dima,

Would call your comment British grade understatement. Dana howitzers, that Czech BM-21 on steroids (full reload on the launcher with power ramming = very quick refire),

BTRs in bar armor, BM-27, BMD sporting Afghanistan vintage ZU-23 field mod, more SpecOps, Su-24, etc. People doing what I used to do (threat analysis) must be wetting themselves!

Regards,

John Kettler

[akd]

Chechen SF with Pecheneg:

[leakyD]

Great pics and links..thanks again for sharing...

Yup. Interesting unit observations, and LOADS of reference material for modders of future modules.

I love the pic of the priest.... does this mean we're going to get priest power-ups/healing AKA "Age of Empires"?

[John Kettler]

akd,

That sent me to Google straightaway. Thanks to it, I now know you're talking about the previously unknown to me MG in the picture.

PKP Pecheneg MG

http://world.guns.ru/machine/mg30-e.htm

It took forever to get to it tonight, what with the unceasing blather about the John Edwards infidelity matter, but when I finally did get to see some coverage (with nary a map in sight) I saw a lot of T-80s, a shattered Georgian(?) ERA covered T-72, some shots of the interior Roki/Roksky tunnel,

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/south-ossetia-5.htm

the protection detail covering up the Georgian president, well dispersed Georgian artillery firing (think it was 2S3s but far away, so hard to tell), some firefights involving Georgian and Georgia-loyal South Ossetian forces vs. the Russians off camera. Georgian side had a platoon or more of BMD-1s and was fighting in part from behind those movable reinforced concrete highway barriers. There was some discussion of Russian airstrikes outside of contested areas and the map showed classic Russian armored thrusts straight across Georgia and branching out 45 degrees to either side. International protests brought another armored stroke, this time from Abkhazia and perpendicular to the original advance.

No military experts were presented, but the pundits seemed to believe no viable U.S. military option existed, a view with which I strongly disagree. There are real options, options which would definitely send a strong reproving message to Russia, yet need not cost even one Russian life. All it takes to figure them out are a decent map, some ingenuity and a working knowledge of our military capabilities. The pundits were unanimous in their view that Europe, EU, G-8, NATO, etc., notwithstanding would do nothing, being so dependent on Russian oil and natural gas as to be effectively paralyzed. Likewise, though it wasn't said, the UN Security Council is also impotent, since Russia can veto anything it doesn't like.

Am appalled that with a major international crisis in full bloom, we're still being deluged with anything but worthwhile TV coverage of same here in the States.

Is that burning AFV some sort of ARV or mobile crane? I don't believe it's an SP gun.

Regards,

John Kettler

[akd]

some firefights involving Georgian and Georgia-loyal South Ossetian forces vs. the Russians off camera. Georgian side had a platoon or more of BMD-1s and was fighting in part from behind those movable reinforced concrete highway barriers.

Pretty sure this video was Russians and/or S. Ossetians firing against Georgians. If the same, the video I saw included images of dead Georgians in the woods along the highway/road:

http://www.tvn24.pl/0,9407,1560828,,,mail-rozpaczy-rosjanie-sanbspw-poti-pomozcie,raport_wiadomosc.html

Is that burning AFV some sort of ARV or mobile crane? I don't believe it's an SP gun.

Regards,

John Kettler

I am told it is a T-64 BAT-2.

[The_Red_Rage]

White ribbons on the sleeves are worn by South Ossetian units for ID purposes.

Another interesting theory on conflict causes, which seems to be the dominant in CIS world as well:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/11/21726/6846

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/9/82642/19523

Linked from the article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/10/weekinreview/10traub.html?_r=1&ref=weekinreview&oref=slogin

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/11/world/europe/11scene.html?hp

[akd]

White ribbons on the sleeves are worn by South Ossetian units for ID purposes.

Another interesting theory on conflict causes, which seems to be the dominant in CIS world as well:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/11/21726/6846

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/9/82642/19523

Linked from the article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/10/weekinreview/10traub.html?_r=1&ref=weekinreview&oref=slogin

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/11/world/europe/11scene.html?hp

Problems with theory:

-no evidence of claimed massive civilian casualties and intentional targeting of Russian "peacekeepers" away from S. Ossetian forces has so far arisen.

-fighting began earlier in the week. Georgian attack on S. Ossetian positions was not "out of the blue" and appears to be no more well-planned than the Russian counter-invasion, if not far less well-planned and premeditated.

-pulling a combat capable brigade out of Iraq is not helpful to the US, yet that was certainly an inevitable outcome of Russian intervention in Georgia.

[The_Red_Rage]

Reuters, AFP and numerous Russian agencies already reported complete destruction of Tskhinvali. Russia is preparing a war crimes case for Hague, so we'll see the true humanetarian impact later. Saaskashvili is now claiming that he "witnessed how Russian bombers artillery destroying Tskhinvali..." (!!!) - man is a liar and a coward (reference the video where he noticed a plane overhead and ran faster than Forrest Gump).

Russian peacekeeper battalion positions were clearly separate from S.Ossetian positions. I had a map of battlelines lying around somewhere, I'll look around.

Russian force build-up in the area argument doesn't fly: 1) 58th army was already a reiforced combat ready formation since it is responsible for Chechnya; 2) Georgia is a potentially hostile neighbour with unstable leader in power, so increased military presense is basic national security measure.

Georgians fired first, and they didn't just fire but initiated a barrage of a civilian city from surrounding hills (Sarajevo anyone?); Russian peacekeepers did not return fire for first 12 hours (that is from S.Ossetian sources, who were initially angered by Russian troops not engaging). It is pretty obvious that Georgia wanted a blitzkreig, which did not quite work out...

Georgian presense in Iraq was more of a PR campaign to sell Saaskashvili as "friend of the West" than any real help - 2000 troops of questinable reliablity, which had been pulled out with even more PR fanfare ("The last stand for democracy at Tbilisi!"). It is pretty obvious by now that Russia is not going to Tbilisi, so why all the noise?

Interesting facts:

1) Saaskashvili is a U.S. citizen (!!!!!!) - imagine a member of Castro family running for power in Mexico with a clear anti-U.S. sentiment and Russian financial and military suport

2) Ramzan Kadyrov (El Presidente in Chechnya) stated that "Georgia should not mess with Russia" and that "Chechnya was ready to provide 10,000 volounteers to fight on Russian side" as well as that "he was concerned that Moscow was not utilizing Chechen troops more" - politics is a *****, ain't it?

[Mord]

2) Ramzan Kadyrov (El Presidente in Chechnya) stated that "Georgia should not mess with Russia" and that "Chechnya was ready to provide 10,000 volounteers to fight on Russian side" as well as that "he was concerned that Moscow was not utilizing Chechen troops more" - politics is a *****, ain't it?

WTF?

Mord.

[Combatintman]

Would agree with AKD there - on initial quick glance it vaguely resembles the 2S19 from the rear but that is definitely a crane so probably a BAT-series vehicle as AKD says.

[The_Red_Rage]

WTF?

Mord.

As the Russians say "Caucasus is a delicate business...." That saying is based on 300 years of actually being in the region and interacting with all the cultures.

The way things work there is that one day you are killing each other and the next you are best friends.

[Mord]

I don't know how the Ruskies handle POWs but I've seen what the Chechens do to the poor bastards (Russian soldiers) that fall into their hands...makes being shot look like fun. Man, hard to believe they'd climb in bed together...

The world is a weird place.

Mord.

[John Kettler]

akd,

The video is the same one I saw--small excerpts from. Would swear I heard the VO say this was of Georgians and South Ossetians fighting the Russians. Looks like that site has many other goodies to watch. Am unfamiliar with the vehicle you named, so it's off to Warfare.ru for me. A lot to read here, but thank goodness things have calmed down dramatically in the region!

The_Red_Rage,

I'll have a look at your links. Don't suppose you have the Google Earth links for the ten villages the Russians are claiming were flattened? If and when the Russians file charges

at The Hague, I'll be most interested in that, too.

Regards,

John Kettler

[akd]

South Ossetians fighting the Russians.

Highly unlikely this was said.

Look, even the BMPs have white armbands:

[John Kettler]

No joy on Warfare.ru, but here's the BAT-2 in all its....? From what I can tell, it's the same basic chassis as what the SA-12 uses.

http://www.jedsite.info/tractors-mike/mike/mtt_series/bat-2/bat2.html

Lot's more pics of things here, including the side view of the front of the burning BAT-2.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?p=3460909

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

akd,

Believe my friend will tell you he heard the same thing. We were rather surprised to "learn" South Ossetians were fighting on the same side as the Georgians. If you think this is bad, you should hear some of the other boners broadcast. Still, it's hard to beat the Google map superimposing key locations in the non American Georgia on a map of the Peach State! As for the Yozh, somebody was pretty brave to TP it!

Regards,

John Kettler

[Mord]

I heard Florida was gearing up for an Russian invasion.

Mord.

[akd]

Reuters, AFP and numerous Russian agencies already reported complete destruction of Tskhinvali. Russia is preparing a war crimes case for Hague, so we'll see the true humanetarian impact later.

I'm not seeing complete destruction, nor did this reporter taken into Tskhinvali by the Russians:

Heavy damage in Tskhinvali, mostly at gov't center

By DOUGLAS BIRCH, Associated Press Writer

Tue Aug 12, 6:12 PM ET

TSKHINVALI, Georgia - Gutted and shrapnel-scarred buildings testify to fierce street battles and heavy rocket and bomb attacks in the separatist capital of South Ossetia. But there is little evidence civilians were specifically targeted by Georgian troops, as Russia claims.

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During a visit Tuesday arranged by the Russian government, journalists from The Associated Press and other Western media were escorted into the city aboard armored vehicles.

Reporters witnessed more than a dozen fires in what appeared to be deserted ethnic Georgian neighborhoods and saw evidence of looting in those areas.

The heaviest damage from the recent fighting appeared to be around Tskhinvali's government center. More than a dozen buildings in the area were little more than scorched shells.

Several residential areas seemed to have little damage, except for shattered windows, perhaps from bomb concussions.

Near the city center, on Moscow Street, pieces of tanks lay in a heap near a bomb crater. The turret of one tank was blown into the front of the printing school across the street. A severed foot lay on the sidewalk nearby.

Salima Grapova, a 41-year-old music teacher pointed to the blast damage at the intersection, which is one of the hardest hit spots. A theater, typesetting school and an apartment house were heavily damaged or destroyed.

"Here every rock had blood on it," she said of the fierce fighting. Asked why her neighborhood had suffered, she noted that the train station and other government targets were nearby.

Outside town, dozens of houses burned along the main road. A Russian officer said some of the buildings had been burning for days and others were damaged the previous night during an airstrike by a single Georgian plane.

When an AP photographer rode through the same villages Monday morning, none of the houses was burning. The fires only began Monday night, more than 24 hours after the battle for the city was over.

Georgia's security council said Tuesday it filed suit against Russia in the International Court of Justice, alleging Russian troops who intervened in the conflict are trying to drive ethnic Georgians out of South Ossetia and another breakaway area, Abkhazia.

That claim came after Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials accused Georgia of committing genocide after launching its offensive last week, including missile attacks, to try to retake control of this region populated by ethnic Ossetians.

Russian officials in Tskhnivali echoed that theme during the visit by reporters Tuesday.

Army Col. Igor Kononenko showed off a civilian neighborhood, once part of the old Jewish quarter, that sustained extensive damage. He said that was proof the Georgians targeted civilians.

"This street is very small, tanks can't go through here," he said, arguing there was no military reason for the Georgian military to shell the neighborhood.

However, the district stands on a hillside in the line of fire between Georgian rocket position and Tskhinvali's government center, located around the university. Some civilians in the area conceded Georgian fire at the government building might have fallen short.

At the regional hospital, doctors said the patients were moved to the basement during Georgia's bombardment of the city, and had to do without light, water or toilets. The dungeon-like rooms still stank of sewage Tuesday, while sheets and bandages were stained with blood.

Dr. Tina Zhakarova, who said the hospital had treated 224 patients during the fighting, called the Georgian assault on the city an act of ethnic cleansing.

Noting the medical facility had been damaged, she held out a handful of shrapnel to reporters. Doctors can protect people from disease, she said. "How can we protect them against this?"

But from the outside, the hospital appeared to have only light damage, either from bullets or shrapnel. Most of the windows were shattered.

Russian army officers said a Georgian missile pierced the hospital's roof and caused damage not visible on the outside. But they refused to show reporters the destruction, saying it was not safe.

Georgian authorities also have charged misdeeds by Russian troops and their allies.

An AP photographer saw irregular troops near burning homes in ethnic Georgian villages, and there was evidence of looting in those areas.

At an Ezeit electronics store with smashed windows, a few appliances stood outside, but most of the stock seemed to be gone.

Nearby, a man in dark glasses, camouflage and a Kalashnikov assault rifle drove a tractor hauling what looked like a large refrigerator partly visible under a blanket. A car went down the road with two new satellite dishes on top.

Much of South Ossetia has become an armed camp after fighting that Russian officials said had killed 2,000 Ossetians.

Two rocket launchers stood in an alpine meadow near grazing cows Tuesday. Resorts, picnic areas and a school had become impromptu military bases. A long line of Russian army trucks headed south day and night on mountain roads toward Tskhinvali.

In the capital, meanwhile, the few residents left dind't appear to have much to do except mourn their dead. Many complained bitterly about alleged Georgian "fascism."

Sporadic fighting. There was artillery fire, apparently aimed at suspected Georgian positions, and anti-aircraft missile was fired. No aircraft was visible from the ground, and nothing appeared to be hit.

Asked whether Russian forces planned to push deeper into Georgia, Kononenko, the army colonel, said he had orders not to move his troops. "We are staying here," he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080812/...YiE0Qst010bBAF

Knocked out Russian T-72 in Tskhinvali:

[John Kettler]

akd,

What's the arrow telling us? I see a tank. Is it a T-90 or something? Meanwhile, I have a fabulous find.

Stratfor article on the Russo-Georgian War. If I knew how to put the entire thing up, including the useful map, I would, for it's permitted provided credit is given. Best analysis I've seen to date, though I think Friedman left out one major possibility: that this wasn't a U.S. intelligence failure but was allowed to happen for any number of reasons. Glaspie level results are possible in this case without so much as one ambassadorial discussion with the triggering party. Mind, this isn't to say there weren't.

But with stakes this high, it's reasonable to argue that U.S. official failure to warn off its ally Georgia in itself constitutes both decision via inaction and tacit endorsement. As history shows, being a U.S. ally can and has been devastating to the befriended, for said

allies often wind up as sacrificial victims.

By not challenging this Russian invasion of a small weak country before it could hide, in theory at least, under NATO's umbrella, it in turn sets in train other developments. Personally, I think this greases the skids for the reestablishment of something very much like the boundaries of the old Soviet Union. In turn, that changes numerous aspects of the geostrategic situation vis-a-vis Russia (such as the fear of encirclement matter) and may well take a lot of high voltage out of that circuit. Of course, it sucks if your country's being thrown under the bus in the name of superpower politics and sensitivities!

Should also point out that we have a decidedly biased view of things. If we promulgate, say, the Monroe Doctrine (and later reformulations, such as the one on communist regimes in our hemisphere), then that's wonderful. Interlopers had best stay out! Contrariwise, we get riled when Russia does much the same by asserting its territorial interests in its back yard. Janus has nothing on us!

As Friedman points out, having one of your country's major cities (St. Petersburg) a mere 60 miles from a NATO member border does not sweet dreams for your defense planners make! Were I Estonia, I'd think long and hard about that and its associated implications.

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/russo_georgian_war_and_balance_power

Regards,

John Kettler

[akd]

Arrow is indicating a Russian T-72B with Kontact-5, as is seen destroyed in the other pic.

While not as tidy as the Stratfor analysis, this article probably provides a more accurate, real world view of US actions before the conflict escalated:

During a private dinner on July 9, Ms. Rice’s aides say, she warned President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia not to get into a military conflict with Russia that Georgia could not win. “She told him, in no uncertain terms, that he had to put a non-use of force pledge on the table,” according to a senior administration official who accompanied Ms. Rice to the Georgian capital.

But publicly, Ms. Rice struck a different tone, one of defiant support for Georgia in the face of Russian pressure. “I’m going to visit a friend and I don’t expect much comment about the United States going to visit a friend,” she told reporters just before arriving in Tbilisi, even as Russian jets were conducting intimidating maneuvers over South Ossetia.

In the five days since the simmering conflict between Russia and Georgia erupted into war, Bush administration officials have been adamant in asserting that they warned the government in Tbilisi not to let Moscow provoke it into a fight — and that they were surprised when their advice went unheeded. Right up until the hours before Georgia launched its attack late last week in South Ossetia, Washington’s top envoy for the region, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried, and other administration officials were warning the Georgians not to allow the conflict to escalate.

But as Ms. Rice’s two-pronged visit to Tbilisi demonstrates, the accumulation of years of mixed messages may have made the American warnings fall on deaf ears.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/13/washington/13diplo.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&hp&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1218638169-j5vuUCk3YlaRN8OTxETOXw

[The_Red_Rage]

A very good article John, thanks for the link. A cool-headed realistic assessment of the situation - must read for everyone in my opinion.

[The_Red_Rage]

Another statement from Kadyrov regarding Saaskashvili in http://rutube.ru/tracks/917002.html?v=92406c270cdbf2a85f5fb6968b2ea44f

"Moscow. On August, 12th. INTERFAX.RU - the president of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov was disappointed in Michael Saakashvili as in the commander-in-chief with Armed forces of Georgia. " Yesterday I looked a fragment on the TV, as the commander-in-chief of Georgia (M.Saakashvili - IF), having heard a sound of the plane, has escaped, leaving even his bodyguards behind. It was difficult to catch up with him! He should be sent to the Olympics to participate in sprinting events, he is a very good sprinter, - has told Kadyrov on Tuesday to journalists. He continued on to state that "while the Georgian army bombs women and children, the president of this country does not have enough personal courage to look up at the plane ".

In turn the representative of the Russian Ministry of Defence, speaking about this incident, has noted: " Saaskashvili's protection detail was most likely frightened, by a sound made by two Georgian artillery pieces which have renewed bombardment of South Ossetia." He also noted the professionalism of camera operator, as the camera did not shake or lose focus during the "ordeal".

Interestingly enough, French foreign minister was on scene and "quite surprised" with Saaskashvili's reaction.

Really, if GRU wanted to take him out physically - they would've done it already.

[John Kettler]

Things are still very much in the air in Georgia. As of Friday, Russian tanks were quite clearly visible where they officially "weren't," in towns the Russians supposedly weren't in, such as Gori and Poti. The U.S. is apparently squawking about further Russian reinforcement, while at the time ruling out the one thing that would command respect and attention from the Russians: the threat of using military force.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/15/georgia.russia.war/index.html

Warfare.ru has its own special coverage of the fray.

http://forum.warfare.ru/special/

Over in the GDF, I posted a disturbing item on the new/old Russian Army, which apparently includes beating a recruit's genitalia so badly gangrene set in, leading to (urk!) amputation; there was also forcing recruits into male prostitution.

akd,

Kontakt-5, eh? Should've spotted that, but was looking for something else. Rice's MO is scarily reminiscent of the U.S., handling of the Hungarian Uprising in 1956. First there was endless incitement via Radio Free Europe and doubtless multiple intel agencies; then, when the Hungarians rose in revolt, it was : "So sorry. We can't help you."

The_Red_Rage,

Glad you found it useful! One wonders how much "priming" Kadyrov got from the Russians before saying what he did. OTOH, he is a Chechen! More telling, I think, is the French Foreign Minister's reaction, which probably had to do with disgust at the lack of decorum and unseemliness of a national leader's behaving that way. Tres gauche!

Given his performance to date, were I the Russians, I'd concentrate on keeping the man alive. If something happens to him, there might be someone with both a vision for his country and a fire in his belly. Better the enemy you know.

Regards,

John Kettler

[The_Red_Rage]

Looks like the media tone is changing.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4525885.ece

I don't think Kadyrov needs any priming btw - he found out that cooperating with Moscow is safer and more profitable. Oil buck can tame Saudi Sheiks as well as fiersest of Chechen fighers.