Breaking (multiple levels) Red on Red!

[John Kettler]

Vid I found on the basis for BigDukeSixField's nervousness in the face of the dreaded Su-25 Grach (Rook). BBC crew covering the war was lucky to survive being in the war.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7552958.stm

Regards,

John Kettler

[Nidan1]

Nidan1,

The A-10, as originally built, was a VFR aircraft, with primitive avionics to match. The addition of PAVE PENNY (laser spot tracker), IIR Maverick (impromptu night capability by watching IIR display relayed to cockpit while missile was still on pylon) and, more recently, LANTIRN has changed that considerably, but the Su-25 is of the same period and was even more primitive than the A-10 when it first appeared. These days, it has considerable capability, at least on paper.

http://www.warfare.ru/?lang=&catid=256&linkid=1611

But paper capability simply isn't the same as pilots used to routinely operating in weather, and even routine flying requires expensive flight hours, before the more demanding matters can be addressed. BigDukeSixField rightly notes, too, that a pilot's eye is attracted to motion and that at even a Su-25's relatively low speed, target ID can be very tough, resulting in attacks on AFVs that aren't. Master tank buster Rudel found the target location and ID difficult from a plane flying at well under 200 mph, and he had tons of flight hours and combat experience. Pity, then, the FROGFOOT pilot who, by U.S. standards at least is woefully undertrained, doesn't get enough flying time to begin with, and is now supposed to work in weather and earlier may've been under fire and watched a buddy get blasted by a Georgian SAM. I'd be nervous, too, with heavily armed folk like that zooming around above me, just itching to blow something up!

Regards,

John Kettler

Thanks JK, appreciate the analysis.

[John Kettler]

Nidan1,

You're welcome!

People,

Have discovered another source of grog goodness on Georgia and related matters. A little digging in this amazing aviation forum will yield a rich harvest. That's how I found out the Georgians got the first BACKFIRE kill ever scored and that the Russians fired 15 SS-21s into Georgia during the war. Site has pics, vids and very knowledgeable commentators. Be sure also to peruse the very groggy Missiles and Munitions.

http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/forumdisplay.php?f=5

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

More toys for Syria, it appears, though the lack of specifics is annoying. The BUK-M1 is the SA-6 GAINFUL successor and is what NATO calls the SA-11 GADFLY. Such missiles apparently downed the Su-25s the Russians lost. No word on what got the BACKFIRE R ELINT bird. Take careful note of the last few paragraphs of the article.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e64_1219351612

Georgian minister confirms Israeli mercs used as trainers! From Haaretz.com

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1010187.html

Regards,

John Kettler

[akd]

Su-25 hit over Georgia:

Tough bird.

[John Kettler]

akd,

Impressive survivability considering the warhead apparently went off between the two engines! A worthy Il-2 successor. Still, ow!!! I always wondered how well an SU-25 would fare if hit by a SAM as hard as some A-10s were during Desert Storm and OIF.

Sort of figured that if one engine got hit, it was likely to rip apart the other one from flying fan blades. Luck, typical rock solid Russian over design, or both?

People,

Here's a brilliant "plague on both your houses" dissection of Russia, Georgia and Disinformation by a shrewd imagery analyst who has an amazing site.

http://geimint.blogspot.com/2008/08/russia-georgia-disinformation.html

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

BigDukeSixField has posted some good stuff to this thread's counterpart on the GDF, in which he mentions a Georgia train which apparently hit a mine. Very messy. Even messier is the report Georgians are massing on borders of South Ossetia and are shooting in areas not occupied by Russian peacekeepers.

http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/29415

Russia also appears to be concerned about what it's portraying as a rapid Georgian weapon buildup. Would imagine, though, the figures quoted don't take into account the recent, er, debits caused by the fray.

http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/29365

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

Somebody in this mess needs remedial math. Death toll estimates in South Ossetia plummet; YMMV. 1600 then vs. 133 now!

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24219963-2703,00.html

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

And now Russia's said it officially recognizes the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Also, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's apparently been watching too much western news, seeing as how he called a warship a battleship, an increasingly common oops here in the States.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080827/ap_on_re_eu/georgia

Regards,

John Kettler

[The_Red_Rage]

This is NOT few dozen casaulties... City panorama shots indicate very heavy damage from very heavy weapons to major buildings (including apartment blocks).

http://vodpod.com/watch/966384-tskhinval-wounds

I can't find another word other than cowards for Saaskashvili and his thugs.

[John Kettler]

The_Red_Rage,

133 is not now, nor ever has been equal in my mind to a few dozen. All I'm saying is that it's a far cry from the 1600 we heard repeated many times earlier. Further, I agree Tshinvali took a lot of damage, but neither does the place look like Stalingrad, as was also multiply asserted.

As far as I'm concerned, this is what happens when unbridled egos on both sides are combined with a will to power, modernish weaponry and a general lack of humanity. From what I can tell, neither side has clean hands here, and both contributed to creating a mess with the very real potential to cause large scale warfare to break out. Fortunately, relative calm has been restored. Whether it holds is another matter.

Regards,

John Kettler

[akd]

Satellite damage assesment for Tskhinvali area can be found here:

http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/satelliteimages/UNOSAT/324545345fcd9edf949c6655c8d0d2db.htm

The highest concentration of damage -- representing 40% of all severaly damaged/destroyed structures in the assesment area -- is in the Georgian village of Tamarasheni north of Tskhinvali proper.

[John Kettler]

akd,

How do you yet the image big enough to actually a) see something and read the text in the right sidebar? All I get is a low-res PDF that won't zoom.

Regards,

John Kettler

[akd]

akd,

How do you yet the image big enough to actually a) see something and read the text in the right sidebar? All I get is a low-res PDF that won't zoom.

Regards,

John Kettler

mmm...upgrade to later version of Acrobat?

[John Kettler]

akd,

Not sure how much higher than 5 I can go with this rig.

People,

Lots of naval activity in the Black Sea, as shown here in these recent articles.

http://iraqwar.mirror-world.ru/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=173360

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c1b_1219740408

I'm a bit confused, though. I know the Moskva referred to above is the Black Sea fleet flag vessel and is the renamed Slava, but if it's in the Black Sea, what went to Tartus with the Admiral Kuznetsov? I thought I read the Moskva went, but I figured this was that hybrid rocket cruiser/sub hunter helo carrier. Does the Russian Navy have two different Moskvas operating?

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

Harsh words continue! Russia's minister to NATO warned any attack by NATO forces on South Ossetia or Abkhazia will be treated as war with Russia.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=67757&sectionid=351020602

Meanwhile, Georgia's former head, Edvard Shevardnadze was at pains to point out the downside of Moscow's action: the precedent it creates for such spin offs in its own territory! Also, he blasted Saakashvili.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=67779&sectionid=351020606

All's not well in NATO, either, the unified declaration notwithstanding.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=67689&sectionid=3510304

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

Either China was persuaded to change its mind, or something odd's happening at THE WASHINGTON TIMES. Was going to post a piece saying China had rebuffed Russia's request for support and had instead condemned aggression and reaffirmed existing boundaries. Now, though, all I can find is this, which is decidedly different. Here, Russia claims it has China's support. Black Sea's getting multinationally crowded, too.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/aug/29/russia-claims-beijing-backing-against-west/

Regards,

John Kettler

[The_Red_Rage]

More vidoes - i'm speechless again. I'm surprised U.S. servicemen are not protesting that scum like that wears their uniform. In these two Georgians act like Somali militia with U.S. equipment:

- look! U.S. instructors taught them "Woohoo!"... anther 80 million dollars and they'll master yelling "Yippie Kayay Mother@@!$" while tossing grenades in basements full of civilians. Very democratic of them...

"Tshinkvali - First days" documentary (a must watch IMHO) - very graphic stuff, so you've been warned:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6nOCK-Dgzo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLrAZKQDLTk&feature=related

[John Kettler]

The_Red_Rage,

Vid 1 response = Holy war crime tribunal, Batman!

Vid 2 response = ? Heard words (nil Russian skill) for rocket (raketneya), airplane (samolet), bomba (bomb), fire (udar), Saakashvili and Tshkinvali, also possibly Spetsnaz. Beyond that, am clueless. What was the patrol AFV?

(glacially slow, spastic server!)

Vid 3 response = Very disturbing stuff, and the overlapped audio like to drove me nuts!

Very impressed that a South Ossetian general would form a tank hunting team and lead it personally, let alone to such effect!

Vid 4 response = Unrelenting horror, made much worse by the server issues! Couldn't take any more of the server madness, so gave up at the 6 minute plus mark. And just think, there are more parts yet!

Regards,

John Kettler

[The_Red_Rage]

Doubt any war crimes tribunal will happen with current Eurounion stance (which can be compared to mass schizophrenia). Worst Saaskashvili will get is cushy placement in Prineceton University PolSci department. However, noone cancelled blood feuds in Caucasus, and Mad Mike (and his entire family for that matter) has 1600 families to answer to. Best example of how far blood feud can reach: http://www.kommersant.com/p-11625/r_530/Kaloev_back/http://www.kommersant.com/p-11625/r_530/Kaloev_back/

Some more humor - "How Saaskashvili and Yushenko Went to NATO":

*Signs on doors - "To stay alive" and "Closed until further notice"

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Still nattering on about the 1600 dead? Even the Russians stopped making that claim long ago. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7572635.stm The count went up from the number mentioned in the article, but still nowhere near the numbers you claim. Told you. Turns out in regards to civilian casualties the Russians outscored the Georgians. Oops!

So, no genocide. Prepared to redirect that anger to the ethnic cleansing perpetrated by the South Ossetians?

[The_Red_Rage]

Nothing has been finalized yet. Quote from the article you provided:

"The prosecutors reported finding many hastily dug graves in gardens - and said it would not be clear how many more dead were buried there until thousands of refugees return home.

The death toll from the war and its aftermath has yet to be independently determined. "

And another article:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10004

Somehow i doubt HR watch went to every house, interviewed every family, and dug into every backyard/basement/destoryed home (too dirty, they don't like to get out of their Land Rovers). Damage to the city, looking at videos, is very heavy

Btw, you don't actually need to kill anyone to committ genocide. Definition of Genocide is "deliberate and systematic destruction, in whole or in part, of an ethnic, racial, religious, or national group." Considering that 95% of Ossetians rejected Georgia, and Ossetia and Abkhazia have nothing to do with Georgian "territorial integrity" since they were never parts of Georgia and are populated by ethnically destinct groups. So Georgia had a clear intent to "solve the Ossetian problem" with use of force - and that is genocide. Even if Russia killed 1000 Gergian civilians in this campaign they would still be more justified - there was no intent to wage war against Gergians as ethnicity. It was a precise military operation, while Gergians had a 2 days of bombing a city with Artillery and throwing grenades in basements.

Show me a video of Russian troops driving through Gori yelling "woohoo" and shooting at everything that moves or executing a civilian in the middle of the road.

p.s.: you're from Netherlands, probably still pissed off about EuroCup

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Nothing has been finalized yet.

*snip*

No **** Sherlock, that's what even I said. But all evidence presented by BOTH sides is now pointing to 2-300 dead, not the 1600 you keep clinging on to.

Btw, you don't actually need to kill anyone to committ genocide. Definition of Genocide is "deliberate and systematic destruction, in whole or in part, of an ethnic, racial, religious, or national group." Considering that 95% of Ossetians rejected Georgia, and Ossetia and Abkhazia have nothing to do with Georgian "territorial integrity" since they were never parts of Georgia and are populated by ethnically destinct groups. So Georgia had a clear intent to "solve the Ossetian problem" with use of force - and that is genocide. Even if Russia killed 1000 Gergian civilians in this campaign they would still be more justified - there was no intent to wage war against Gergians as ethnicity. It was a precise military operation, while Gergians had a 2 days of bombing a city with Artillery and throwing grenades in basements.

Hahaha, that's a joke, right? The destruction of a nation is not genocide, the destruction of a nations people is genocide. Look at the worde genocide. It has the Latin for murder in it. And gen for genetics, though it is broadened to mean any identifiable people, by race, religion, passport ertc. You'd still need to murder them wholesale for it to be genocide.

If you occupy 'their' land it's just that, occupation. Drive them from their lands and it's ethnic cleansing.

Show me a video of Russian troops driving through Gori yelling "woohoo" and shooting at everything that moves or executing a civilian in the middle of the road.

How about the videos of aerial bombings of civilian areas? How come those saintly Russians managed to kill more Georgian civilians then those evil mass murdering Georgians?

p.s.: you're from Netherlands, probably still pissed off about EuroCup

What's this EuroCup you speak off?

[The_Red_Rage]

Is any real evidence of "aerial bombings of civilian targets"? (links) What has been confirmed are mostly military targets or targets that could be used for military purposes:

- Radar station

- Port infrastucture + boats in Poti

- Demolished military bases in Gori and Poti

- Bombed air fields

- One apartment building in Gori (shown 50 times over)

- Su-25 upgrade facility near Tbilisi

- Vezami base near Tbilisi

-AA sites and force concentrations

Noone was dropping bombs on Tbilisi downtown, or shooting up building with open sights in Gori. Civilians were not the intented targed - Georgian military capability was.

The only reason why Georgians did not slaughter entire Tshinkvali was because they got smacked on the nose and could not supress 300 defenders of the city in time (with 15 to 1 supriority just in menpower). Speed with which Gerogian soldiers turned their tail also idicates that they felt a certain degree of justified reprisal was coming, many ditched their uniforms and were later written off with civilian casualties. Two brigades ceased to exist, so i doubt their casulties are in 130 number that they proided. Why weew so many Georgian troops wearing masks? Haven't seen masked personnel on Russian side, even GRU's "Vostok" did not cover their faces.

On a sidenote, on a basic every-day life level, if an 11 year old bully was beating a 4 year old wouldn't you knock him the **** out so hard that he'd never do it again ?

[Elmar Bijlsma]

I would never beat the 11 year old. It would be wrong and against the law. I'd yank him off the ankle biter and bring him to his mother and give him a sharp piece of my mind while I'd do so. That you feel beating the snot out of a child is morally the right thing to do is in fact rather disturbing.

You still haven't explained why you continued to use the 1600+ figure which is now discredited as wildly inaccurate by all sides and NGOs. And NGOs are not in the business of downplaying casualties.

Ask Stan Storimans if no civilian targets were hit. Honestly, how can you claim to have been following this conflict and not be aware of the bombing of Georgian towns by rocketry and planes? (using cluster bombs on civilian areas) For you to pretend not to know this leads me to think you aren't a very honest person.

This is further evidenced by your mind reading skills where you just know that had the Georgians been successful they would've slaughtered everyone they found. There is NO, repeat NO evidence to support this. You follow with the claim the Georgians must've been planning this because they fled. I think you'll find that war is a scary thing, especially when the Russian army comes for you. There's no evidence that fear of retributions for a supposed planned genocide had anything to do with why they fled. None whatsoever. So your bias leads you to imagine things or you flat out lie. As such you aren't a very useful person to have a conversation with.

On my killfile with you!