LIBYA? ....Anybody? Bueller? Anybody?

[LongLeftFlank]

Wow, this board truly seems to be growing moribund as attention turns to CMBN.

If I wasn't already engaged on Ramadi, it wouldn't seem hard to whip up a RED on RED Libyan scenario or two. Hell, you probably don't have to dig very far to come up with some maps of, oh, the cliffs overlooking Derna. The old Tobruk perimeter has probably been urbanized some since 1942, but I'll be some of the more remote crossroads still look the same.

I don't know whether anyone ever tried to build an oil refining complex map (I guess the Syrians don't have many of those). The unfortunate absence of a round building complicates matters some, but isn't critical.

And if you wanted to tear a page from tomorrow's headlines, you could do an Egyptian Army intervention and roll in the M1s (the special nerfed for Israel variant).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12558066

Unlike in Egypt or Tunisia, it is not the conventional military that holds the balance of power in Libya. Instead, it is a murky network of paramilitary brigades, "revolutionary committees" of trusted followers, tribal leaders and imported foreign mercenaries.

The actual Libyan Army is almost symbolic, a weakened and emaciated force of little more than 40,000, poorly armed and poorly trained. It is part of Col Muammar Gaddafi's long-term strategy to eliminate the risk of a military coup, which is how he himself came to power in 1969.

So the defection this month of some elements of the army to the protesters in Benghazi is unlikely to trouble Col Gaddafi. Not only can he do without them, his security apparatus has not hesitated to call in air strikes on their barracks in the rebellious east of the country.

Police and army units in Benghazi have been defecting, and the military is likely fractured along tribal and other lines.

....Some of Col Gaddafi's own sons have worked in internal security but today, the key figure in Libya's security apparatus, both internal and external, is Gaddafi's brother-in-law, Abdullah Senussi. A hardliner with a thuggish reputation, he is strongly suspected of being the driving force behind the violent suppression of protests, notably in Benghazi and the east of the country.

Mutassim Gaddafi: A lieutenant colonel in the Libyan army, he fled to Egypt after allegedly masterminding a coup attempt against his father, but was later forgiven and allowed to return. He is now National Security Advisor to his father and heads his own unit in the army.

Libya has a number of "special brigades" answerable not to the army but to Gaddafi's Revolutionary Committees. One of these [second Brigade] is believed to be commanded, at least nominally, by one of Col Gaddafi's maverick sons, Hannibal.....The paramilitaries, sometimes known as the "People's Militia", have so far been largely loyal to Col Gaddafi and his close circle known in Arabic as Ahl al-Khaimah - "People of the Tent".

....There are persistent reports that Col Gaddafi's regime has been making extensive use of hired African mercenaries, mostly from the Sahel countries of Chad and Niger, to carry out atrocities against unarmed civilian protesters. Libyan witnesses say they have been firing from rooftops into crowds of demonstrators, in essence carrying out the orders that many Libyan soldiers have refused to obey.

Libya, like the other Arab revolutionary republics of Yemen and Iraq, is a country where your tribe can help define your loyalties, but in recent years the tribal distinctions have blurred and the country is less tribal now than it was in 1969. Col Gaddafi himself comes from the Qadhaththa tribe. During his 41 years in power he has appointed many of its members to key positions in his regime, including those for his personal safety.

[LongLeftFlank]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703498804576156074096202208.html

Late on Sunday, the country's Warfala tribe, one of the largest among Libya's population of 6.4 million, announced it was throwing its heft behind the protesters, suggesting momentum was tipping further against Mr. Gadhafi.

Earlier in the day in eastern Libya, residents of several cities said government security forces had withdrawn from the streets to their bases, ceding all or parts of cities to protesters, at least for now.

In the city of Bayda, east of Benghazi and close to Libya's border with Egypt, witnesses said local police turned their guns on the army's second brigade after it deployed inside the city and fired live ammunition at protesters. The local police's flip forced the surprised army forces to withdraw to the airport on the city's outskirts, according to witnesses.

The fiercest fighting appeared to be raging in the city of Benghazi, Libya's second-largest city, which lies on the country's northeast coast. Benghazi's residents said some neighborhoods of the city had been consumed by full-fledged urban warfare between protesters and pro-government forces. Residents said pro-Gadhafi loyalists driving around in cars fired rocket-propelled grenades and machine guns at anyone in the streets.

For the first time since protests started on Feb. 15, there were numerous reports that protesters had seized weapons caches from abandoned government bases and had gone on the offensive against government barracks. "The soldiers have fled and the citizens have taken their weapons," one resident of Benghazi said in a telephone interview. "Citizens now have rocket-propelled grenades, Kalashnikovs and hand grenades. I can hear the bullets now and RPGs and people beeping their car horn in celebrations."

The ensuing clashes continued to rage throughout Sunday, and have engulfed parts of the city in full fledged urban warfare, according to residents. "It's like a guerrilla war," a female resident of Benghazi said on Sunday morning. "There is a battle going on, and sometimes one part is controlled by the protesters, and sometimes other parts are. There are corpses in the street." On Sunday, several residents said the base appeared to be the last bastion where government forces were concentrated in Benghazi. "Neither side has complete control of Benghazi," said a student in Benghazi

[LongLeftFlank]

Got the first scenario right here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/23/AR2011022306979.html

BAIDA, LIBYA - The young men of this idyllic town nestled in the Green Mountain region of eastern Libya took control here in a days-long battle. First they fought their way into a security camp protected by 2,000 mercenaries and other forces loyal to the government of Moammar Gaddafi. Then they took over the streets.

"They had nothing - just sticks, stones and bare chests. They took the guns from the mercenaries and used them against them,"

Now these sons of Baida - some just 13 and armed with rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and knives - man the lawless roads as they brace for the next possible attack. They are keenly aware that their leader of 41 years has shown no qualms about killing his own people.

Within just over a week, the government has gone from total control here to none at all. But Baida's liberation came at a steep price.

At least 90 civilians have been killed in the 10-mile stretch from Baida to the adjacent town of Shahat, according to doctors and witnesses. In just one neighborhood, there have been 17 funerals, including one Wednesday.

On Wednesday, spent ammunition from rifles and anti-aircraft weapons littered the streets. Fresh blood stained the ground. Residents recounted how mercenaries flown in from other parts of Africa had gone on a killing spree. The town's young men reacted with grief, and with rage. One man took a tractor and broke down the walls of the Kitab security base in Shahat, where mercenaries were housed, witnesses and participants said. In a battle that lasted a day and a half, the residents overwhelmed the mercenaries, killing some and taking others hostage. The captive mercenaries are being held in secret locations throughout the area.

Strategic and tactical maps:

Mapmakers, just take a look at that jebel (cliffs) running along the north of the map! (Drool!)

At the local airport, residents have now blocked the runways with large rocks, car parts and other debris to keep the government from flying in reinforcements.

Now, everyone is armed. The police stations and other government buildings have been burned, and pictures of Gaddafi lie shredded along the roads.

Outside the local parliament building in Baida, once controlled by Gaddafi's revolutionary committee, men and women demonstrated on Wednesday, chanting "Free! Free! Libya!" Others replaced Gaddafi's green flag with the red, black and green flag that predates his rise to power.

[Mayor] Jalil also said he was concerned, not least about the uncontrolled distribution of weapons in a place where teenage boys have begun driving tanks in the streets. "Our strategy is to collect the arms and use them for good and keep national unity,"

This area has a history of resistance to unwanted rulers. Every child knows the name of Omar Mukhtar, a fighter who battled Libya's colonial masters, the Italians. An uprising in the 1990s was violently quelled by Gaddafi. On Wednesday, the young men celebrated their victory in a local square, with a portrait of Mukhtar hanging overhead.

[Sergei]

If you're interested in a recent analysis on the Libyan military, you can read some on Google Books:

http://books.google.com/books?id=NkaG73ZfydoC&lpg=PA61&dq=libyan%20army&pg=PA59#v=onepage&q=libyan%20army&f=false

On a good day the Libyan army would have collapsed when you looked at them angrily, but now I doubt there's even that, except for foreign hired guns and the Colonel's all-virgin bodyguard.

[LongLeftFlank]

Yes, but whose aging drag queen mod are you using for The Leader?

I swear, the guy has been using Michael Jackson's plastic surgeon or something.

[LongLeftFlank]

I suspect both sides are very Uncon-like in that most of their vehicles are pickups/technicals and jeeps, although there might be a few light AFVs (BTRs?) around. Not sure there would be many MBTs present in this particular area, but no knowledge of that.

Oh, and I'm not volunteering to build this scenario. I have other things going on. But it really ain't hard to do something fairly true to life. BFC gives you all the tools you need.

[Sergei]

Something like that can be done, but I don't know if it would really be representative. Combat Mission is more geared for real wars where troops have leaders and follow orders, but here you get vague mobs of people acting autonomously and without guidance. Even the regular army probably isn't acting in a well concerted fashion, otherwise they'd definitely have won by now. I would imagine that most of the soldiers are unmotivated and won't do much on their own initiative (except desert from their post).

[Pešadija]

Yes, but whose aging drag queen mod are you using for The Leader?

You can't possibly imagine how this simple statement turned my morning upside down with laughter.

Funny. And, with current events, machinima's "Gheddafi reviews CoD 4" acquires a new level of hilarious.

[LUCASWILLEN05]

You could do a scenario where NATO intervenes with light forces and the Marines for "humanitarian reasons" in a manner similar to Kosovo. Opposition would largely be the insurgent types with some regular army units still loyal to the regime. Objectives could include things like securing oilfields, ports or airports or maybe even regime change, However, this does seem unlikely at the moment but let's not worry too much about the politics.

Luke

[LongLeftFlank]

Of course Egypt would happily annex oil-rich eastern Libya.

[LongLeftFlank]

Something like that can be done, but I don't know if it would really be representative. Combat Mission is more geared for real wars where troops have leaders and follow orders, but here you get vague mobs of people acting autonomously and without guidance. Even the regular army probably isn't acting in a well concerted fashion, otherwise they'd definitely have won by now. I would imagine that most of the soldiers are unmotivated and won't do much on their own initiative (except desert from their post).

Agreed, mech battalions are the CMSF sweet spot (except for the small maps and force imbalance), but I believe the engine is also eminently suitable for creating irregular ops provided you design the scenarios intelligently (it isn't a good candidate for QBs). Limited C4I isn't always zero, especially in the cellphone age. A gifted commander can be surprisingly effective in managing his forces and hitting weak points -- some of our opponents have proved that in Iraq and A'stan, although it is the exception rather than the rule and Western forces have generally been up to the challenge. An unmotivated army, or a force of courageous but undertrained foreign mercenaries, on the other hand, could be easy prey.

Typically, it's a matter of using the armed "mob" as well as harassing fire from mortars, RPGs etc. to limit the mobility of the "oppressor" troops and create FOW, while identifying the right place and moment to hammer him with a disciplined core (platoon strength) of dedicated fighters and/or VBIEDs. Don't know that that's what happened in the Al Baida action above, but I doubt that some brave farmer rammed the base perimeter wall spontaneously with his tractor. It was part of a plan.

One man's theory here, but that theory COULD readily be gamed out. Just sayin', BFC has given us a great off the shelf toolkit right here. I would give my left nut to have such a versatile toolset for looking at energy project economics. I would be a lot richer than I am today, let me tell you.

Anybody listening out there at STRATFOR? War colleges? (Of course you are).

[dan/california]

There really is a possibility for Egypt and Tunisia to simply split Libya between them. They can't run the place worse than Quadaffi did. I mean Egypt's population is something like twelve times higher. Maybe Libyan oil is how we buy off the Egyptian military. there is some interesting red on red in their somewhere.

[LongLeftFlank]

The prize is tempting, but there's one thing in the way: the Libyans. The tribes who inhabit Libya, Gaddafi's among them, are about as ferocious and, well, tribal, as the Arab world gets -- and that bar is pretty high. Think Barbary corsairs. Historically, these folks haven't been ruled by outsiders for any significant length of time since Rome. There's a good reason for that.

Another hint is in the name of the second city: Ben-ghazi. The ghazi are of course Mohammed's followers, the apostles who took Islam across the known world in 3 generations.

The Italians only went in because they were late in the European rush to empire and they got their asses handed to them a number of times by the locals. Their colonial

"administrators" stuck to the coastline, and it was governance strictly with the consent of the governed.

Don't let Dress-Up Muammar and the general incompetence in mechanized warfare fool you. These people are tough, wily and stubborn on their own turf. Their Egyptian cousins would find that out the hard way, fast, as they have before.

[dan/california]

All of which would be very unfortunate in real life, but your making my case for me from a scenario perspective. Furthermore; the Egyptians have the benefit of very short supply lines and a LOT of young men who need some way to occupy their time besides burning down central Cairo. Not to mention the new Egyptian goverment could be in desperate need of a foreign distraction soon. So who would you rather fight? The Israelis or the Libyans?

[LongLeftFlank]

All true, and I believe there is no love lost between the Egyptians and their country cousins.

I'd find it more likely that they went in as the ground arm (and Arab face) of a UN-sponsored intervention, with Western logistical, air and naval support but as few as possible white faces on the ground. They'd still wear out their welcome fairly quickly with the locals though.

And just as the West has found in Iraq and Afghanistan, it would be much harder to withdraw from the failed state of Libya than to enter. Once the Salafists began standing and demanding an Islamist state. And then AQ fanatics began blowing up insufficiently militant alternative local leaders. Would the Egyptian generals be willing to tolerate such a state next door, oil rich and with a porous border?

Sticky icky....

[dan/california]

They may get that either way, unless some caps Qadaffi very soon. It may already be too late. And if you have the problem you might as well have the oil. I

I should have you a through AAR tomorrow by the way.

[Dietrich]

the Egyptians have the benefit of very short supply lines and a LOT of young men who need some way to occupy their time besides burning down central Cairo. Not to mention the new Egyptian goverment could be in desperate need of a foreign distraction soon. So who would you rather fight? The Israelis or the Libyans?

(I'm disappointed with myself that only just a minute ago did it occur to me to make the connection between current events and the above scene from one of my top 10 favorite movies. -.-)

[LUCASWILLEN05]

Of course Egypt would happily annex oil-rich eastern Libya.

Which is another good reason for doing more Middle East TOEs. The Jordanians have a Challengeer variant but with a completely new turret. And we can't not have the IDF

Given the way the political situation is changing anything could happen and there could well be potential for future wars in the region other than our Syrian invasion scenario. There really should be more mods

Interstingly there was a border war between Egypt and Libya during the late 1970s (I think 1977) so there is a previous history of conflict. The Egyptians have a couple of military options. They could come in as liberators getting rid of Gadaffi and handing things back to a new pro Egyptian government in Tripoli within a few months. Alternatively they could just annex some of the border areas including some of the Libyan oilfields and leaving any Libyan civil war to sort itself out. Then use the oil as a bargaining tool with the West. For the Egyptians I think the second option would be best as much of this is largely going to be empty desert except for the oil installations. Going to Tripoli could be a problem since the M1A1 is a bit of a gas guzzler and we are talking several hundred miles from the Egyptian border. During WW2 both the 8th Army and the Afrika Corps both had supply problems bringing their offensives to a halt due to over extended supply lines and the same could be true for a modern Egyptian invasion of Libya. On the other hand, if NATO were to give an Egyptian invasion logistical support on the understanding that the Egyptians are going to take option 1 then it could be achievable.

Luke

[LongLeftFlank]

Look closely at Google Earth and you'll find that it isnt as empty as it seems. A lot has changed since 1942.

I agree with everything re the Egyptians, casus belli and strategic intent. Right out of the neocon playbook, but even better since it's fellow Arabs on the ground, right?

But just one rumour on Al Jazeera of Egyptians raping or shooting a local and that all goes to hell. And once the AQ types get in, and they will, they will make sure some poor family gets killed in their car by EA troops nervous about VBIEDs. And there goes your stable pro-Egyptian regime...

[dan/california]

I didn't say it would work. I said they might try it and that it would make a decent scenario or campaign for CMSF.

[Damian90]

The Jordanians have a Challengeer variant but with a completely new turret.

They don't it was only demonstrator with Falcon turret, most are still good old FV4030 Challenger 1, some however have modified turret with TOGS-1 and old day sight replaced by new integrated day-thermal sight + L11A5 rifled gun was replaced by RUAG CTG L50 120mm smoothbore gun.

Going to Tripoli could be a problem since the M1A1 is a bit of a gas guzzler and we are talking several hundred miles from the Egyptian border.

Depends, actually AGT-1500C is using more fuel when tanks is just standing with engine running or dribing slowly, if tanks drive fast it's actually using less fuell.

However Egyptians never bought for their tanks EAPU's and US seemed to never send them with hulls, turrets, engines and other major parts to be assembled in Egypt. While Iraqis, Kuwait and Saudis recieved EAPU's.

[LongLeftFlank]

Looks like we might be getting a replay of El Agheila if the "Free Libyan" army has enough serviceable mech to roll on Qaddafi's hometown of Sirte. Can readily imagine a nasty fight around the refinery complex as mercs and tribal loyalists threaten to blow the thing.

Go further and imagine a fully laden tanker at the end of the loading pier, its crew held hostage by Qaddafi militias. Might have a use for those Dutch naval commandos (fka the Royal Dutch "Oil Marines") or GSG-9. Or maybe the French, who are close. I think all those guys specialize in oil.

The Italians will sit this one out -- Berlusconi's got Mussolini's old mountaintop all ready for his old buddy. Who may have a second career in the Milan runway scene...

[Boche]

Spain also has interests in Libya...we get atleast 13% of our oil from there.

although I would be suprised if anything is mobilized, as always anything military is just wrong!

[mjkerner]

Yes, but whose aging drag queen mod are you using for The Leader?

I was thinking more along the lines of Carlos Santana:

http://blog.celebrityseats.com/2009/04/07/carlos-santana-coming-to-las-vegas/

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.scu.edu/ethics/architects-of-peace/Santana/resources/portrait_hr.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.scu.edu/ethics/architects-of-peace/Santana/homepage.html&usg=__RdPsxDlYrU4W44xevIobOUcrhTE=&h=370&w=298&sz=43&hl=en&start=0&sig2=ikx-0-3GTB1UckZtRmKHaw&zoom=1&tbnid=IMWEvCf9kxcRkM:&tbnh=153&tbnw=119&ei=xG5wTdLaGYS8lQew09A8&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dcarlos%2Bsantana%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26rlz%3D1R2GPEA_en%26biw%3D1497%26bih%3D938%26tbs%3Disch:1&um=1&itbs=1&iact=rc&oei=xG5wTdLaGYS8lQew09A8&page=1&ndsp=36&ved=1t:429,r:4,s:0&tx=50&ty=103

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.thirdage.com/files/imagecache/350x350/files/CARLOS-SANTANA_1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.thirdage.com/movies-music-the-arts/carlos-santana-concert-woodstock&usg=__qseFtx6zgJteS3Dz3H-0PkMb0e0=&h=292&w=349&sz=20&hl=en&start=122&sig2=eI9-55Lso5g_dGHBz2W6bQ&zoom=1&tbnid=6Mt5rdkSXjIXRM:&tbnh=146&tbnw=158&ei=R29wTfO3BtK2tgem9rWKDw&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dcarlos%2Bsantana%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26rlz%3D1R2GPEA_en%26biw%3D1497%26bih%3D938%26tbs%3Disch:1&um=1&itbs=1&iact=rc&dur=359&oei=A29wTZaOB4Odlgest9U_&page=4&ndsp=43&ved=1t:429,r:37,s:122&tx=113&ty=26

[LUCASWILLEN05]

I read something about a Russian deal with the Libyans a year or so ago to supply T-90s. Does anyone know whether the deal was actually finalised and, if so, whether the Libyans actually have them in service yet?

If so then any US intervention scenario becomes much more interesting.

Luke