For you students of global climate change--some explanations

[John Kettler]

As I've noted before, there's a lot more going on than just humankind's pumping CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Here's an overview of some of the interacting phenomena, together with many links.

http://liminalthresholds.blogspot.com/2008/04/solar-flares-solar-system-warming.html

That may or may not work for you, but consider this. We used to think there were some 1400 underwater volcanoes. That is, we did before scientists got to see the Navy's formerly classified underwater maps. The number thereupon jumped to 11,000, a massive increase.

Guess what? The number has now gone through the roof, thanks to the ability to program computers to automatically recognize volcanic cones. How through the roof? Try an estimated 3 million underwater volcanoes! Might these have, perhaps, some small impact on the global warming issue? On the warming of the oceans and the changes in the currents? Might they not also help explain how a glacier's underside can alarmingly be melting in the middle of Antarctic winter?

http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn12218-thousand-of-new-volcanoes-revealed-beneath-the-waves.html

Seems to me that if we're going to debate the causes of global climate change, then we ought to have the factors properly identified and quantified.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Affentitten]

But John just because these cones have just been mapped doesn't mean that their input to planetary warming hasn't always been there. Therefore they are part of the baseline.

[John Kettler]

Affentitten,

Deftly counter argued! The problem with the counterargument is that we have reports of volcano nurseries being found, also of apparent volcanic type seismicity in places where there's never been a volcano seen before, as shown below concerning the latter.

http://www.greatdreams.com/gorda.htm

They seem to think another one's hatching, so to speak.

The model based on solar system warming, the Sun's not behaving at all normally, and other matters, would lead us to expect more volcanism via the injection of more energy, in several forms, into the Earth, raising the internal temperature, in turn giving rise to greater volcanism. That is precisely what's been observed happening for decades, but the people here attempt to explain it away based on better reporting, virtually preening themselves.

http://www.volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?faq=06

Moose hockey! Why? If you go to any number of sites, such as International Volcano Research Center (www.intlvrc.org), Volcano Live (www.volcanolive.com) and Eruptions (http://eruptions.wordpress.com/), you'll find that for days, sometimes weeks, on end the volcanologists don't know what a given surface volcano is or isn't doing, that most volcanoes have NO real time monitoring, that some are on uninhabited islands and aren't seen for months at a time, only becoming an issue if they blow big time or a visit reveals an eruption has occurred, triggering a kind of volcanic post mortem.

And this is the situation without factoring in that some of the best volcano watchers go to the field for weeks and sometimes months, with no one to keep up the reports in their absence, that many foreign nations have little or no volcanic monitoring and that there are delays of as much as two weeks in getting proper scientific reports out through such channels. By then, the cloud cover has set in, and the whole cycle begins afresh. If this is the situation for surface volcanoes, just imagine how infinitely worse it is for difficult to monitor, far flung, underwater ones, in enormous quantities.

Based on my other source of information, what a slew of Earth sensitives is reporting, I can tell you that enormous amounts of volcanic activity are being strongly, even cripplingly, felt lately, but that we're not seeing it externalize topside. Given what we know know from the latest surveys about the vast scope and scale of underwater volcanoes, it stands to reason they're picking up volcanism under the sea, volcanism which simply isn't reaching the surface, instead being smothered by the ocean, if it even breaches the sea floor.

Given the above, I then argue that you don't get to count the 3 million volcanoes as your baseline, for the evidence is that the baseline, formerly much smaller, is not only not static, but growing rapidly. This goes a long way, IMO, toward explaining lots of otherwise apparently anomalous observations. It would, for example, take a great deal of heat rise in the atmosphere to warm the oceans perceptibly, yet the temperature's not gone up that much, while the oceans, their astronomic thermal mass notwithstanding, have grown warmer. The amount of energy bombarding the Earth has gone up, and we haven't even discussed the scalar component Hoagland talks about, and Earth's gotten hotter--from within in response. That is how you can have freezing cold atop the glacier, while it inexorably melts from below, in the middle of Antarctic winter!

Regards,

John Kettler

[Other Means]

Rubbish. We all know sea levels rose when Australia was discovered.

[dieseltaylor]

I am with Affie on this one. Volcanoes warming the ocean seems very fair and hardly shocking. That it has been a shock to those who pontificated on the subject does not make it suddenly dangerous.

As for melting at the bottom of glaciers I am afraid that traditionally it is so. As for the warming off the ocean perhaps you better tell me on what figures you are using:

http://www.csiro.au/news/OceansWarming.html

You will note the errors in reporting systems - which leads one to wonder at the accuracy of the 1961 baseline.

BTW the use of power stations to heat "cooling" water I suspect has not been factored in yet. Certainly the amount of sea water heated by the minute by five or six degrees multiplied by all the seaside/river based power stations must have an effect. Slightly amusingly the French atomic reactors were pulled off-line a few years ago drought meant no cooling effect was being gained

Drastic measures are being taken to keep the reactors humming at France’s 19 nuclear power stations, which are currently on go-slow because of a lack of water. Nuclear plants need water to cool turbine condensers, but the drought has reduced the flow in French rivers and raised their temperature. Mme Bachelot yesterday agreed to suspend regulations that limit the temperature of water that power plants can release into rivers, allowing Electricité de France (EdF) to resume production at six nuclear and three conventional thermal stations.

So that was in 1990 and in 2003. Given that water holds heat reasonably well and mankind does nothing to make oceans cooler [bar melting ice into it] then a gradual rise would seem to be inevitable. You will note I do not mention the sun ... etc

In 1990 there were approx 1300 coal fired facilities rated over 300MW however given that China is building two generating facilities a week the overall total must be considerably higher. Say 2500 large power stations and at a guess cooling/heating several tons of water per minute by up to 5 degrees centigrade for years on end. Ask yourself would the average temperature be hotter, the same or colder? I rest my case. : )

Given there is an uncertainty in the climate change models I would always have to come down on the side of humankind doing something to ameliorate climate change. Solar power seems pretty good.

BTW look-up Eco-cute on wiki for a very interesting take on saving energy.

[John Kettler]

Affentitten,

Should read "Given what we now know..."

dieseltaylor,

Hadn't considered either the power stations or reduced river flows in the heat problem.

Doubtless, because I was working at a higher level of aggregation. What I'd like to know now, though, in light of what you said, is our bathythermal profile data: how much, how good and where were they taken? Since heat rises, and SOFAIK, the generators aren't dumping their outflow on the ocean floor at, say, the edge of the Continental Shelf, I wouldn't expect a whole lot to happen. Contrariwise, if the bottom of the ocean is what's warming up, as a result of crustal heating and volcanism, then that would and could change things dramatically, for now you're dealing with deep oceanic currents and the effects therefrom.

As for climate change issues caused by humans, it's readily demonstrable that clean energy technologies exist and have existed for decades. Yet, so greedy are the PTB that they won't even let a 65 m.p.g. car be imported here, confining it to Europe! You can just imagine, then, how well received ideas are that would negate the current energy model. Even so, there are lots of good reasons for us to walk softly on Mother Earth. Of course, if we keep tearing her lungs out, we may be lying softly, quite dead on her, having destroyed the very oxygen supply we need in order to live!

Regards,

John Kettler

[Wicky]

Might they not also help explain how a glacier's underside can alarmingly be melting in the middle of Antarctic winter?

jeez never heard of the Glaciers Pressure melting point - we were taught that at school at 14 in Geography.

Increasing pressure with depth forces ice towards its more dense, liquid phase. Thus, the melting point of ice decreases at about 0.7oC per vertical kilometer of ice. If basal ice is at the PMP ("warm-based"), heat cannot escape, thus the presence of meltwater is assured.

Based on my other source of information, what a slew of Earth sensitives is reporting, I can tell you that enormous amounts of volcanic activity are being strongly, even cripplingly, felt lately, but that we're not seeing it externalize topside. Given what we know know from the latest surveys about the vast scope and scale of underwater volcanoes, it stands to reason they're picking up volcanism under the sea, volcanism which simply isn't reaching the surface,

Kettler logic at its finest **roll-eyes**

[Wilhammer]

jeez never heard of the Glaciers Pressure melting point - we were taught that at school at 14 in Geography.

Increasing pressure with depth forces ice towards its more dense, liquid phase. Thus, the melting point of ice decreases at about 0.7oC per vertical kilometer of ice. If basal ice is at the PMP ("warm-based"), heat cannot escape, thus the presence of meltwater is assured.

It's Sharks with FREAKING lasers carve out the bottom of glaciers - get it?

The Bat Rastards know that if they flood the world's continents, they will have loads of Fresh Meat and not so Fresh Meat.

[Affentitten]

I think the vastness of the oceans is probably able to cope with the odd new volcano. You're probably talking about trying to heat an olympic swimming pool with a couple of birthday candles.

[dieseltaylor]

The ocean vastness would also dilute the warming of power station water however I have guesstimated 365 million tons of water per year at 5degrees above the inflow temperature.

However it is heating effect no matter how diffused it eventually becomes. It is possible that given the basic methods of sampling in previous centuries the current readings will presumably be compared to the old and the old would no doubt be surface biased.

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Global_Warming_Triggers_North_Sea_Temperature_Rise_999.html

and this more particularly with reference to volcanoes

http://www.scienceinpublic.com/sciencenow/2008/catia_motta_domingues.htm

[Wicky]

Blame wartime bucket blipl

Prior to the war, UK and US fleets had contributed roughly equally to the global temperature record. From 1942 to 1945, UK ships, previously an important gatherer of sea water temperatures, were mobilised on the front and contributed just 5% of measurements. Measurements taken from US ships made up 80%.

The key, then, is how each nation took its measurements. UK ships tended to throw a bucket overboard and lift it on deck to take the water's temperature. US ships by and large would sample water drawn into the engine room before it was used to cool the machinery.

Researchers have known for some time that each method has a bias. Temperatures measured in the buckets tend to be lower than those obtained when a thermometer is placed directly into the ocean because heat escapes from it as it is heaved on deck. The type of bucket can influence the temperature as well: wooden buckets, common in the 19th century, offer better insulation than the canvas buckets used in the 20th century. Engine room measurements, on the hand, tend to be higher than the actual water temperature because these rooms are hot.

So a temperature record dominated by US measurements in the early 1940s would show the sea surface to be warmer than it actually was at the time.

Moreover, late in 1945, the UK resumed its measurements and for a period was responsible for half the global record while the US share dropped to 30%. This period is biased towards cooler, bucket-based temperatures, and corresponds to the sudden 1945 dip.

[Wilhammer]

That certainly is interesting..thanks!

[John Kettler]

dieseltaylor,

If I'm following this, by no means certain having been awake since yesterday, most of the measurements are, in fact, surface, temperature measurements. The apparent exception might be from things like that profiler rig, special oceanographic research vessels, submarines, the odd bathyscaph and the like. Further, thanks to Wicky's discovery, we also have to contend with several forms of bucket bias. Too fun!

Am not quite sure what they're on about in your second link when it talks about volcanoes and sea surface temperature, unless they're referring to greenhouse effects from all the S02 and what not released by a surface eruption. I see zero mention of any kind of effect from underwater volcanism, which we know a) to be vast, markedly on the uptick, and c) a considerable producer of BTUs, despite there being no accounting made for them in the model. Heat, last I checked, was still heat. As I indicated, where the heat's being applied to these staggering quantities of thermally layered sea water is also important.

Wicky,

I'm well aware glaciers melt on the bottom as a result of pressure, but what concerns scientists is they're seeing such severe melting, in mid Antarctic winter, that they're afraid a huge portion of an ice shelf (Wilkins?) will detach and slide into the ocean, with all the consequences that entails.

Regards,

John Kettler

[mike_the_wino]

....Eruptions...

hehehehe, that would be a great name for a strip club....hehehehe

Based on my other source of information, what a slew of Earth sensitives is reporting, I can tell you that enormous amounts of volcanic activity are being strongly, even cripplingly, felt lately, but that we're not seeing it externalize topside. Given what we know know from the latest surveys about the vast scope and scale of underwater volcanoes, it stands to reason they're picking up volcanism under the sea, volcanism which simply isn't reaching the surface, instead being smothered by the ocean, if it even breaches the sea floor.

um, what are 'Earth sensitives'? Are you referring to some smelly, crystal worshipping, gawd-damn, crunchy hippies?

[Wilhammer]

ya had to ask, Mike...

http://earthboppin.net/talkshop/feelers/

And, an even better name for a strip club;

http://www.volcaniceruptions.net

[mike_the_wino]

Earth Groans

Earthly Awareness Related To Holism - General Recording Of Anomolies Non Scientific

And this has any bearing on any thing, how exactly? Their own website openly admits in the banner that there is no basis for their dope-induced, touchy-feeling, circle-jerk...er, drum circle, communing with 'earth spirits' bullsh*t.

Thanks for the links, Willhammer. I could have googled but didn't think it even worth that little effort....and your links proved that.

[Wilhammer]

And this has any bearing on any thing, how exactly? Their own website openly admits in the banner that there is no basis for their dope-induced, touchy-feeling, circle-jerk...er, drum circle, communing with 'earth spirits' bullsh*t.

Thanks for the links, Willhammer. I could have googled but didn't think it even worth that little effort....and your links proved that.

I only know this site because of a Kettler saga from days gone bye...someone impersonated me there (they have ZERO security, anyone can post as anyone) and then Kettler trashing me on this forum (and that one) for something I did not do - and they did the same thing to Wicky as well.

Kettlerian Research isn't.

Kettler did apoligize though, but it came back up again, and the whole cycle started over.

[John Kettler]

mike_the_wino,

If you'd bothered to read a little further, you would've discovered that this part of a very extensive, many board site is devoted to reporting symptoms, not making formal predictions. That has an entire board of its own. Earth Groans is for reporting symptoms, what people are feeling and what they make of them.

Further, you have exhibited not merely dazzling ignorance in your comment regarding Earth sensitives, but also rank bigotry toward people involved who have no more control over their particular conditions than you do of your genetics.

Clearly, you know nothing of the underlying scientific research on human biosensitivity (will be happy to E-mail you a massively documented from PubMed article I wrote if you PEM me), the array of tests run on Charlotte King while working with a Congressional Library researcher and the terrible price she pays (and many others like her pay) for her gift (predicted the Mt. St. Helens eruption to within 12 hours, despite widespread scientific ridicule as to the impossibility)

http://www.viser.net/~charking/core.shtmlwww

or what state of the art scientific measurements have found about the amazing capabilities of Earth sensitives.

http://www.terraresearch.net/articles/Aches_to_Quakes_article.html

It's all too easy to make fun of what you don't understand, especially with such expert, malicious prompting, but this is no joke, is as real as your nose, and can kill you in a variety of ways. If you wouldn't make fun of someone who is physically ill and suffering, I strongly suggest you not make fun of people whose conditions are barely starting to be understood in both scientific and medical circles, yet can and do blight their lives on every level.

Am talking trips to the emergency room for mitral valve prolapse, headaches codeine won't touch, balance interference, vision problems, speech problems, memory problems, problems walking at all, sleep disruption, digestive disruption, acute weakness, difficulties concentrating, difficulties remembering and more, singly or in combination before a seismic or volcanic event occurs. Sometimes, the symptoms can last for a very long time as a result of the slow quake phenomenon. Pain intensity can be from nil to hope to die, over small areas to the entire body.

You may or may not be able to get your head around this, but some of us have absolutely no choice. We have to deal with being Earth sensitives day in and day out.

Pray it doesn't happen to you!

Regards,

John Kettler

[Wilhammer]

"Am talking trips to the emergency room for mitral valve prolapse, headaches codeine won't touch, balance interference, vision problems, speech problems, memory problems, problems walking at all, sleep disruption, digestive disruption, acute weakness, difficulties concentrating, difficulties remembering and more, singly or in combination before a seismic or volcanic event occurs. Sometimes, the symptoms can last for a very long time as a result of the slow quake phenomenon. Pain intensity can be from nil to hope to die, over small areas to the entire body. "

Sounds to me like, and this is my opinion (and the unspoken opinion of others), hypochondria.

We also notice your tack, or attack here. 'You can't challenge this as I am all knowing on these matters and you are just a worm.'

Surely, John, you can be more rational than this. Your obvious intelligence seems masked by some madness...

Wait, the Earth tremors below my feet...the envelope is at my head...John is going to threaten me...Yep, its pretty clear, my funny bone is aching...

[mike_the_wino]

John,

Thank you for your in-depth response to my post. As much as I normally appreciate being called ignorant and a bigot, in this case I take offense.

Your list of symptoms sound painful and difficult to deal, so I will indulge your lashing out as one would one forgive a cornered, frightened animal. As I do not follow your postings on a regular basis, how the feck would I know about your medical issues or the fact that you claim to be an 'Earth sensitive'? I am sympathetic to those in pain but that doesn't allow you carte blanche over those who disagree with another of your fringe theories. And marching in here with outrageous claims, cockamamie theories and third rate websites to back you up, is not, nor shall it ever be, 'proof'.

You sir,

are wanted at home.

[John Kettler]

Wilhammer,

A) Not all of those symptoms are mine, while calling someone a hypochondriac may be a convenient way to dispose of the problem, it, in fact, isn't what's going on, as shown by some of the research I cited, and c) regarding Earth sensitivity, I'm not all knowing, but I've had to deal with it since at least February of 2001 when I definitely established a direct correlation between what I was feeling, what the planet did, and release from my symptoms.

Oh, and you get the agitprop award for deliberately stirring up trouble!

mike_the_wino,

Suggest you go back and look at your post. Consider what you said, how you said it, and who you said it about. I pointed out you were attacking people who are dealing with very real conditions, conditions which can and do make their lives beyond hellish, but now, having been expertly primed by Wilhammer to begin with, your nose is bent out of shape. I was characterizing your behavior, but you are indulging in visual name calling. It might not have gotten to this point had I seen your first question on the matter, but I missed it, after which Wilhammer stoked the fire, whereupon you said

"Their own website openly admits in the banner that there is no basis for their dope-induced, touchy-feeling, circle-jerk...er, drum circle, communing with 'earth spirits' bullsh*t."

That is what I confronted you over, and you didn't like it. My description of how you characterized who we are and what we do was, I think, accurate. I was concerned, though, that in my mix of outrage and acute tiredness (didn't get to bed until after 10 a.m. today), I might've said something prohibited, but I didn't. I told you where you can find some real information on Earth sensitivity, but whether you do or don't is on you. Now, though, you've been informed and can no longer claim ignorance when challenged, should you sound off again in that manner.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Wilhammer]

"Oh, and you get the agitprop award for deliberately stirring up trouble!" 20 dollar word for those with a superiority complex.

You are stirring the pot, buddy. The trouble you feel is the splatter from the soup you are overheating.

Rock soup.

[John Kettler]

mike_the_wino,

You asked earlier how this (Earth sensitivity) was germane to the discussion. Simple. Many Earth sensitives can not only feel the buildup of volcanic pressure, heat and strain, but they can tell you where. They form a kind of living volcanism detection network, if you will. Further, many have repeatedly correlated their reports with actual eruptions, some over a period of years for volcanoes such as Etna, after which their symptoms diminish or release. What we've been seeing on the Earth sensitive boards for some time now are reports of volcanic events that have no surface events to go with them. In fact, we have far less now in the way of major surface volcanism than we did years ago, but the sensitives are reporting large scale volcanic symptoms, to include powerful eruptions. Am therefore arguing, especially in light of the new underwater data, that what the sensitives are picking up is probably underwater volcanism, and on a very large scale, to judge by the magnitude and duration of the symptoms being reported.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

Wilhammer,

Let's see. I start a thread based on new scientific discoveries, provide some perspectives from my own unique experiences, and next thing I know, it's argumentum ad hominem, with me as the target. Not only do you deliberately drag up old stuff to make me look bad, but you go out of your way to incite others. You then have the sheer effrontery to lecture me on my "bad" behavior. So far as I can determine, the single best thing you've managed to do here is to thank Wicky for his most insightful comment on bias in temperature reading based on where the bucket measurements were taken and in what type of bucket. You're behaving like a naughty, resentful child

who'll do anything to get attention. Oh, and "agitprop" is a perfectly good word, having been in the dictionaries for many decades.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Wilhammer]

What Ever, LPCP