How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Ultradave]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

It actually emerged from research at Exxon.  Then the oil industry took aim with a disinformation campaign to undermine the science.

This is the reason my Dad left Exxon. He was working on that (the effect of increased oil usage over X number of years), and became frustrated with the company's response. 

He left to teach Marine Engineering in college and was much happier, mostly because no more commute to NYC. This was the days of the bankruptcy of first the New Haven RR, and then the Penn Central after that. The commute from Hell.

Dave

[chris talpas]

An interesting interview on topics of relevance to this thread.  Stavridis is former SACEUR

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

The British Army Review 187 – The Battle of Irpin River (53 pages)

TL;DR:

https://www.businessinsider.com/battle-irpin-river-saved-ukraine-2024-9

Russia came dangerously close to capturing Kyiv in the early days of the Ukraine war. But a depleted Ukrainian army brigade, hastily mobilized volunteers, and a businessman who blew up a dam saved the city — and Ukraine from losing the war.

That's the conclusion of American and British experts who examined the fighting along the Irpin River northwest of Kyiv. Based on extensive interviews with Ukrainians who fought at the Irpin, they describe an epic battle won by the narrowest of margins.

"The Battle of Irpin River was a close-run thing," wrote Richard Sladden, Liam Collins and Alfred Connable in an article in British Army Review, a British military magazine.

In many ways, the Russian plan resembled Operation Market Garden in 1944, a bold plan to use American and British paratroopers to seize bridges across several rivers in Holland, creating a corridor for British armored divisions to cross the Rhine River and into Germany.

"The Russians believed they would advance on the capital in what was basically a parade formation and not a combat movement."

Collins blames the Russian failure on shoddy preparation. "It was 100 percent sloppy planning, a lack of preparation, and unexpected Ukrainian resistance that should have been anticipated," Collins said. "The mechanized forces should have rolled through this minimal defense like a hot knife through butter."

 

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, sburke said:

Interesting but not sure I agree with it.

Climate change as a concept first became a topic back in the early 80s.  It was not such a controversial issue then.  Even conservatives like Margaret Thatcher viewed is as a threat.  It actually emerged from research at Exxon.  Then the oil industry took aim with a disinformation campaign to undermine the science.

How the oil industry made us doubt climate change (bbc.com)

 

This isn't about people getting too much information- it is a deliberate targeting of sectors of the population to undermine the ability to argue from scientific fact.  The oil industry also targeted the GOP and I personally feel the repercussions of this campaign became more far reaching that originally intended.  It became the target audience for far more and the blueprint for how to attack anything where facts were problematic.

Ah but my poor simple sburke, vulnerability to being targeted has its roots in being overwhelmed. Too much information creates uncertainty, and we hate uncertainty. So we seek certainty. And of course there are those who are going to exploit that.

[The_Capt]

42 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

The British Army Review 187 – The Battle of Irpin River (53 pages)

TL;DR:

https://www.businessinsider.com/battle-irpin-river-saved-ukraine-2024-9

Russia came dangerously close to capturing Kyiv in the early days of the Ukraine war. But a depleted Ukrainian army brigade, hastily mobilized volunteers, and a businessman who blew up a dam saved the city — and Ukraine from losing the war.

That's the conclusion of American and British experts who examined the fighting along the Irpin River northwest of Kyiv. Based on extensive interviews with Ukrainians who fought at the Irpin, they describe an epic battle won by the narrowest of margins.

"The Battle of Irpin River was a close-run thing," wrote Richard Sladden, Liam Collins and Alfred Connable in an article in British Army Review, a British military magazine.

In many ways, the Russian plan resembled Operation Market Garden in 1944, a bold plan to use American and British paratroopers to seize bridges across several rivers in Holland, creating a corridor for British armored divisions to cross the Rhine River and into Germany.

"The Russians believed they would advance on the capital in what was basically a parade formation and not a combat movement."

Collins blames the Russian failure on shoddy preparation. "It was 100 percent sloppy planning, a lack of preparation, and unexpected Ukrainian resistance that should have been anticipated," Collins said. "The mechanized forces should have rolled through this minimal defense like a hot knife through butter."

 

That first one is excellent.