How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Eug85]

46 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And which countries are you talking about? Not the EU:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?oldid=558089

US:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/187732/volume-of-us-imports-of-trade-goods-from-russia-since-1992/

UK:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/66e948d010f8726dc23aa24c/russia-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2024-09-20.pdf

Canada

https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/can/partner/rus

Finland looks like it reduced trade by 70-80% (with some weird spikes), but so has pretty much everyone else. So are we talking about India and China here? If so, well then you are correct, it is about political will.

 

The chart I provided shows data on trade not only with Russia, but also with the post-Soviet countries of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, etc.). And you provided data only on trade with Russia itself. We have all recently seen these charts with unnaturally many times increased volumes of trade between Western countries and Central Asia. These countries are a bypass for Russia and everyone understands this perfectly well, but do not interfere with this, unlike Finland. This was what my post was about.

[billbindc]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Speaking of The Black Sea

I wonder what Ukraine was going after.  Past events show that they wait for a specific opportunity of great value before striking.  Given this area hasn't been a priority target for Ukraine generally speaking, there must have been something pretty special there to hit.

Steve

The strategic goals have been successively to stop any  Russian amphibious operation aimed at Odessa, then ending naval operations in support of right side of the Dnipro, then reopening grain exports, then isolating Crimea both by attacking infrastructure and destroying fleet elements and then finally to remove the Russian fleet's ability to engage in operations on the Black Sea. 

I think, given that Ukraine is not going to be producing a fleet itself during this war, that Ukraine has accomplished the vast preponderance of those goals and so reached almost the end state of it's goals for the Black Sea. Al that's left is keeping the remnant fleet bottled up. 

 

[Lieutenant Ash]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/technology/critics-fear-catastrophic-harm-over-boeing-s-ai-piloted-killer-jets/ar-AA1r30GO?ocid=socialshare&pc=NMTS&cvid=fa140167a8954d60b558712244304e7b&ei=80

Report on Boeings A.I. controlled fighter prototype.

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The strategic goals have been successively to stop any  Russian amphibious operation aimed at Odessa, then ending naval operations in support of right side of the Dnipro, then reopening grain exports, then isolating Crimea both by attacking infrastructure and destroying fleet elements and then finally to remove the Russian fleet's ability to engage in operations on the Black Sea. 

I think, given that Ukraine is not going to be producing a fleet itself during this war, that Ukraine has accomplished the vast preponderance of those goals and so reached almost the end state of it's goals for the Black Sea. Al that's left is keeping the remnant fleet bottled up. 

 

Totally agree with the big picture view, but let me put it another way... why that specific place at this specific time?  As I said, Ukraine tends to wait until there's something high value comes into the crosshairs rather than just smacking something that is no different today than any other day.  Visiting high ranking officials is one of Ukraine's favorites IMHO, but another one is something like a train or a ship.  Especially if that train or ship is loaded with something combustible that can increase the amount of damage.

Please keep your eyes and ears open for discussion about what the actual target might have been.

Steve

[Ultradave]

2 hours ago, Silentkilarz said:

I didnt mean the US specifically but I recall on some sub brief videos Aaron Amick talking about Western countries helping to dispose of them.

Ahh heres a article discussing it

https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/submarine-dismantlement-assistance/

Interesting. There are some good initiatives there. It's not clear the sub dismantlement has gotten anywhere beyond proposals. I'll have to look further.
 

Here's a US Navy public document detailing the process of decommissioning, scrapping and recycling of US Navy nuclear powered ships. If you search on Google Maps you can even find the pit at Hanford that the shielded (defueled) reactor compartments are sitting in. The pit is still in use of course and hasn't been buried.

https://docslib.org/doc/12018384/u-s-naval-nuclear-powered-ship-inactivation-disposal-and-recycling

Interesting fact from my career: I designed the extra shielding to add to the reactor compartment hull of the NR-1 for disposal. That was really an interesting job involving a lot of reverse analysis to determine the radioactive sources (using shield survey results to determine what radioactive sources were producing those results - challenging and interesting. My former group leader had designed the shielding for the reactor compartment way back during the design of the NR-1, so he and I closed the loop!

Dave

Edited 15 hours ago by Ultradave

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, Eug85 said:

The chart I provided shows data on trade not only with Russia, but also with the post-Soviet countries of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, etc.). And you provided data only on trade with Russia itself. We have all recently seen these charts with unnaturally many times increased volumes of trade between Western countries and Central Asia. These countries are a bypass for Russia and everyone understands this perfectly well, but do not interfere with this, unlike Finland. This was what my post was about.

Ok, well first off it does not look like Finland has reduced trade with Central Asia - all those blue lines look pretty consistent. But the story is a bit more complicated than that.

While I have zero doubt some companies are playing fast and loose in the Central Asian backfield. The EU had a Central Asian strategy that pre-dates this war:

https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/central-asia_en#:~:text=According to preliminary data for,region originating from the bloc.

https://astanatimes.com/2024/05/evaluating-eus-central-asia-strategy-five-year-mark-and-future-expectations/

The aim here looks like an attempt to pull Central Asia away from Russia and Chinese monopolies. The EU was supporting WTO membership for these countries for years.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/factsheet_centralasia_2019.pdf

In fact with the decline in Russia, it is beginning to look like Central Asia is becoming a geopolitical vacuum that more than one power is trying to jump in on:

https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/04/a-new-opening-for-eu-central-asia-relations?lang=en&center=europe

https://eurasianet.org/russia-doesnt-like-taking-a-back-seat-to-china-in-central-asia-trade

So What? Well single note snapshots, like the one you posted, never tell the whole story...only the part of story you want told. So while some EU companies, and Central Asian partners are definitely taking advantage of the situation, there is a much larger game being played. And then there is perspective - the first casualty of any Hot Thread discussion.

The EU does about 47B Euros in trade with Central Asia - that is about 0.7% of its total trade value:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1384767/eu-international-trade-intra-extra-imports-goods/

It was doing 251B Euros with Russia before this war. It is now doing somewhere round 87B, a reduction of around three times the total trade going into Central Asia. So while circumvention is happening the overall offsets are not happening in Central Asia, they are in China and India.

 https://sceeus.se/publikationer/russia-china-economic-relations-since-the-full-scale-invasion-of-ukraine/

So while you are promoting a "weak west" narrative, the reality is that we live in a post-globalization world. In order to achieve full cut off of Russia, we would need to cut off not only trade with Central Asia, but China and India as well. Should some European companies get spanked for obvious indirect sales to Russia - yes, particularly if any sales can be militarized. Is the West somehow completely failing to block Russia up and hurt it economically? No. 

 

Edited 13 hours ago by The_Capt

[Eug85]

China also supplies Russia via Central Asia. Red color shows export to Russia directly, and blue color shows China's export to Russia via Central Asia. Central Asian countries must be swimming in money now.

[Vlad]

39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Totally agree with the big picture view, but let me put it another way... why that specific place at this specific time?  As I said, Ukraine tends to wait until there's something high value comes into the crosshairs rather than just smacking something that is no different today than any other day.  Visiting high ranking officials is one of Ukraine's favorites IMHO, but another one is something like a train or a ship.  Especially if that train or ship is loaded with something combustible that can increase the amount of damage.

Please keep your eyes and ears open for discussion about what the actual target might have been.

Steve

It could be just Ukraine maintaining the pressure both for helping their morale and hurting the RuZZian's ("So you thought you are safe there? How cute, let me show you how wrong you are!"), for which the long range strikes are a good option.

On the other hand yes, maybe there were some whispers from the intelligence about a high value target or two being there and they decided to send Kobzon concert invitations because they can. In that case, even better.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Interesting development. Clearly becoming quite a problem for the Russians if they are going that far. 

So next week the FPV drones hunting them will have a home on jam circuit. "The game goes on forever, the party never ends". 

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Eug85 said:

China also supplies Russia via Central Asia. Red color shows export to Russia directly, and blue color shows China's export to Russia via Central Asia. Central Asian countries must be swimming in money now.

Now on this one we totally agree. China is making out like a bandit. China is trying to pull Central Asia into its orbit now that Russia is in  decline. The other big player is India. Russia is like a drug addict right now, selling off just to feed the habit, and the other powers in its neighborhood are lining up to exploit that. No matter how this war ends up, the damage done to Russia by this immoral misadventure is historic.

Edited 13 hours ago by The_Capt

[billbindc]

16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now on this one we totally agree. China is making out like a bandit. China is trying to pull Central Asia into its orbit now that Russia is in  decline. The other big player is India. Russia is like a drug addict right now, selling off just to feed the habit, and the other powers in its neighborhood are lining up to exploit that. No matter how this war ends up, the damage done to Russia by this immoral misadventure is historic.

It makes sense for China on every level. Entry into Russian markets strangles indigenous competitors, making Russian economic dependence on China that much greater and that in turn creates the conditions for unequal agreements that formalize Chinese ascendancy in the relationship. And it is no small irony that it is clear that China, while enabling Russia, as also restrained it especially in regard to nuclear weapons, reactor sabotage, etc. 

Indian relations are more prosaically mercenary in that Delhi wants the cheap oil but there too things are changing to Russia's detriment. India is taking that cheap energy and increasingly using the savings to delink its military from the Russia systems it depended on for so long. Here, it's not an increase in Indian influence on Russia but the collapse of Russian influence on India. 

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1fnhrd1/additional_and_higherquality_footage_of_the/

The rather infamous S-400 destruction from earlier this year has had some extra footage provided. Some really interesting and useful context provided in a comment:

 

Quote

The 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade (Black Forest) has shown footage of its successful work in destroying a Russian long- and medium-range S-400 Triumph air defence missile system. The event itself took place in the spring, but Ukrainska Pravda is posting the video for the first time.

Source: Ukrainska Pravda article, "Eyes of the gods: how the artillery reconnaissance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine leapt forward in destroying the Russian so-called ‘unparallelled system’ and S-400" (English translation to follow shortly)

Details: Kostiantyn, a platoon commander of unmanned aerial systems from the 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade (Black Forest), stated that while it was not difficult to locate the Russian S-400, it was challenging to strike it.

This is because the S-400 is typically protected by a number of less powerful air defence systems tasked with destroying all reconnaissance drones.

The commander stated that they had a general idea of where weaknesses in the Russian defences might exist. However, it was not ruled out that the Russians might have had some electronic warfare systems that they were unaware of prior to the mission. As a result, the operators' stress increased with each kilometre of drone flight.

The first drone flying to strike the S-400 system was shot down by the Russians.

Quote: "Actually, sending a second drone was a dumb move. Because if you were shot down for the first time, the enemy is operating in active mode. It's unlikely that they'd sit still and think: ‘Ah well, this one was shot down; let’s go rest’. The probability of this happening is minimal, no more than a coincidence," Kostiantyn explained.

But Kostiantyn said the crew went through with this "dumb" decision, launched the second drone into the air, and it broke through the defences, leaving the drone operators impressed and pleased to see the S-400 system on the screen.

Quote: "In certain areas, there are S-300s and S-400s, which are constantly performing manoeuvres and movements. And no one touched them because they were far enough away from the front lines – and they were quite at ease [since the Russians were under the impression that Ukrainian forces would not reach them – ed.].

Usually, the Russians keep launchers, radar stations and command posts separate. But they were so brazen that they placed everything together. We saw this on the screen and said to ourselves, ‘It can't be possible.’ But it was. And we had no choice but to deliver one blow to the entire division."

He added that this Russian equipment turned out to be quite good: the S-400 was even able to intercept some missiles fired at it. But the rest made it to the target and burned down the Russian so-called "unparallelled system".

Kostiantyn said that their drone was shot down on the way to the base with a Russian Pantsir air defence system.

"It is a pity that the drone was shot down. But it had accomplished its mission. This story is not the only one we have. We destroyed not only an S-400, but also an S-300 and an S-350," he concluded.

A really good display of how even with successful strike, they paid for it with reasonably high quality drones (One lost before strike and the one that filmed the strike being shot down. Goes to show that Russian AD is still quite potent and penetrating that net can be hard. 

Other notes:

• S-400 did in fact shoot down some of the incoming.
• Russians rarely setup their systems like this in such a tight grouping, and it was a result of complacency.
• Russians typically move these systems around a lot, which goes to explain a lot as to why these systems are so rarely hit.
• The drone getting to the target was seemingly quite lucky after the first was shot down and RU defences became more active, suggesting the AFU relies on surprise with its drones for these long range ISR missions. Certainly the impression is that once Russian AD becomes 'aware' in a sector a subsequent attempt to push a drone in is inadvisable. 

Still, excellent strike and great BDA, but with an important reflection that ISR is not in fact, omniscient...or a guarantee.  

Edited 11 hours ago by ArmouredTopHat

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/23/opinion/russia-putin-kremlin.html

I’ve been gathering information about Russia’s targeting of exiles since the start of the war in Ukraine. My sources range from people who themselves survived abductions and surveillance to the leaders of Russian diasporas around the world — and the few human rights activists helping them. Many spoke to me on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss Russian repression without fear of reprisal. The Kremlin, of course, denies any involvement — mostly saying that it cannot comment on what is happening to people in other countries. But the evidence is piling up.

 

Nearly three years in and the West still hasn't figured out that there is a war on. 

Edited 12 hours ago by dan/california

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Lieutenant Ash said:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/technology/critics-fear-catastrophic-harm-over-boeing-s-ai-piloted-killer-jets/ar-AA1r30GO?ocid=socialshare&pc=NMTS&cvid=fa140167a8954d60b558712244304e7b&ei=80

Report on Boeings A.I. controlled fighter prototype.

A significant portion of the "Western establishment" for lack of a better term simply has not ingested that technology, and the epically clear results of the fighting in Ukraine  has moved right past their hang ups. Autonomy is here, the horse is out of the barn. Cluster munitions are extraordinarily effective. Mines are extraordinarily effective, and that is before we discuss the smart ones The_Capt never tires of telling us are coming.

Edit: Please note I am not defending Boeing, whole buildings full of people need to be fired there.

Edited 12 hours ago by dan/california

[billbindc]

54 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Nearly three years in and the West still hasn't figured out that there is a war on. 

Well....no, not really. Her examples of almost all in countries with ties to or seriously suborned by Moscow. Yes, some things have happened in other countries but there are robust counter intelligence operations being run to blunt the effects of this stuff...to such a degree that Russia is advertising on Telegram and elsewhere for lone wolf actions. 

Also, entire books have been written about it (I strongly recommend this one: https://www.amazon.com/Compatriots-Russian-Exiles-Against-Kremlin/dp/1541730178). 

Edited 11 hours ago by billbindc

[Lieutenant Ash]

22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

A significant portion of the "Western establishment" for lack of a better term simply has not ingested that technology, and the epically clear results of the fighting in Ukraine  has moved right past their hang ups. Autonomy is here, the horse is out of the barn. Cluster munitions are extraordinarily effective. Mines are extraordinarily effective, and that is before we discuss the smart ones The_Capt never tires of telling us are coming.

Edit: Please note I am not defending Boeing, whole buildings full of people need to be fired there.

Yes, I did note the 'A.I. is evil' luddite tone to the article, but thought it was worth posting anyway to show the work being done in this area.

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Well....no, not really. Her examples of almost all in countries with ties to or seriously suborned by Moscow. Yes, some things have happened in other countries but there are robust counter intelligence operations being run to blunt the effects of this stuff...to such a degree that Russia is advertising on Telegram and elsewhere for lone wolf actions. 

Also, entire books have been written about it (I strongly recommend this one: https://www.amazon.com/Compatriots-Russian-Exiles-Against-Kremlin/dp/1541730178). 

Just bought the audio book, which weirdly is half the price of the Kindle version. The algorithm works in mysterious ways... 

[Eug85]

https://t.me/serhii_flash/3943

https://t.me/serhii_flash/3948

Latest news about new Russian drones. Drone armed with incendiary rockets. The second video shows combat use of this drone, where it sets fire to residential buildings in Nikopol

[Lieutenant Ash]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/destruction-of-nearly-60-buildings-at-depot-in-tver-region-reported/ar-AA1r1V5l?ocid=socialshare&pc=NMTS&cvid=fa140167a8954d60b558712244304e7b&ei=115

Report on attack on 23rd arsenal (second ammo dump near Toropets hit this week) including satellite images taken after strike.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

https://t.me/serhii_flash/3943

https://t.me/serhii_flash/3948

Latest news about new Russian drones. Drone armed with incendiary rockets. The second video shows combat use of this drone, where it sets fire to residential buildings in Nikopol

This encapsulates the difference between Russian and Ukrainian innovations.  Ukraine uses its advances for military purposes, the Russians are happy to find new ways to terrorize civilians.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Denmark's PM is advocating that the West put down explicit Red Lines of its own and, most importantly, that Russia already crossed the big one... invading Ukraine:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/danish-prime-minister-names-red-line-that-putin-crossed/ar-AA1r2iQt?ocid=socialshare&pc=NMTS&cvid=c13a876111be4c95929bd92217bdad24&ei=44

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

While it is correct to point out that the Russian population is predisposed to supporting whatever they are told to support, we must remember that (for a variety of reasons) they might not really like it.  Not enough to say "no", sadly, but at least express some doubt that the only path forward is the one Putin wants to be on.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/putin-humiliated-as-bombshell-poll-reveals-russians-true-feelings-about-ukraine-war/ar-AA1qZDtM?ocid=socialshare&pc=NMTS&cvid=41ecd6c0f01840338f003647b2477430&ei=43

The important thing to look for in polls like this is trends. The trends are definitely not level nor in Putin's favor.

Steve

[Vet 0369]

On 9/20/2024 at 5:53 PM, Battlefront.com said:

What is your point?  That Russia isn't COMPLETELY incompetent in EVERYTHING that it does or makes?  Well, I can easily agree to that because I've never thought otherwise.  If you're trying to make this into something more profound, like it proves Russia is better at innovating than Ukraine, then you're off on your own because there's no rational way you can make that point with a couple of cherry picked examples from one side.  So don't waste our time if that's where you want to take this.

Personally, I think Ukraine's recent innovation of dropping thermite is way, way, way more innovative and consequential than fiber optic spools on some drones.  The video just posted of "3rd Company" being burned out of their positions is a good demonstration why cherry picking isn't a useful exercise.  Because in my book, I just won the argument.

Steve

Hey, OK, we all know that Russia invented the potato so they could invent vodka because they told us so. They have also told us they invented almost everything of any benefit to Humanity since the Stone Age because they said they did. How dare you question Russian claims on this?

[Vet 0369]

On 9/20/2024 at 7:58 PM, chuckdyke said:

Europe during the 50' and 60's of the last century. Rabbits could only be sold on the open markets if the hind quarters were left on. Apparently, WW2 only ended 15 years prior, and cats tasted at least very similar. At least in the Philippines you can see exactly what you get on the open market. Roast Pork is served whole on the table, and you can see it is a 'Baboy'. 

When I was a kid in the 50s and 60s we used to joke that there were no cats or seagulls in neighborhoods that had Chinese restaurants. In fact, when I was on the U.S.S Guadalcanal if there were no seagulls flocking the fantail, we always had chicken in the mess hall! Hmm ….

Many cultures raised and ate dogs, so why shouldn’t  they eat pussy cats?

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Just bought the audio book, which weirdly is half the price of the Kindle version. The algorithm works in mysterious ways... 

Soldatov's father is the man who brought the internet to Russia and is currently being held in bad health and in bad conditions. Almost certainly to influence his son. Borogan and Soldatov are really excellent people and they are perhaps the most knowledgeable experts on Russian intelligence outside of government. Read everything they write.