How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

From ISW:

These documents support ISW's recent assessment that Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise during the incursion into Kursk Oblast despite Russian authorities' reported awareness of the possibility of an incursion.[6] The American doctrinal definition of surprise is to "attack the enemy in a time or place or in a manner for which he is unprepared."[7] Although Russian forces were likely aware of various points along the international border at which Ukraine could conduct an incursion, Ukrainian forces were able to leverage ambiguity around their operational intent and capabilities to maintain operational surprise.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-20-2024

I disagree, and ISW is trying to salvage evidence that in fact counters their assessment. Citations from that Guardian article and the captured documents show that the RA had detailed knowledge of where the UA hammer was going to fall. 

“In mid-June, there was a more specific warning of Ukrainian plans “in the direction Yunakivka-Sudzha, with the goal of taking Sudzha under control”, which did indeed happen in August. There was also a prediction that Ukraine would attempt to destroy a bridge over the Seym River to disrupt Russian supply lines in the region, which also later happened. The June document complained that Russian units stationed at the front “are filled only 60-70% on average, and primarily made up of reserves with weak training”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/20/revealed-russia-anticipated-kursk-incursion-months-in-advance-seized-papers-show

This is not demonstrating “ambiguity of intent” nor operational surprise. Further in order for ISW to sustain this claim they would need proof of what was going on inside the RA chain of command. Were they surprised and confused? Or were they in denial, refusing to send bad news to higher (a trend we have seen). Or were middle level commanders too busy trying to shift blame? 

We do not have a full picture of what the UA did with respect to deception and OPSEC, so it is hard to gauge what was successful. It is weak tea to claim operational surprise at this point without much more information. Worse it is irresponsible to raise expectations based on Kursk when the same results are likely not possible down south.

Edited 3 hours ago by The_Capt

[dan/california]

54 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Worse it is irresponsible to raise expectations based on Kursk when the same results are likely not possible down south.

For about nine reasons. Kursk worked for the oldest reason in military operations. Ukraine hit them where they weren't. Why the Russians weren't ready is just not understood yet. Even the balance between Russian idiocy and Ukrainian brilliance is not understood yet. We will not get this answer while the war is still going. 

The one thing I am sure of is that the Russians are there in quantity from the Donbas down to Crimea. What ever it will take to break them there, catching them not ready, and more the point in insufficient mass is not likely is not likely to be it.

[Silentkilarz]

I don’t think this is war changer of course but it definitely is throwing some wrenches down the hole for Russia. 

[Silentkilarz]

4 hours ago, Kraft said:

There are claims more than 100 drones were used against the Tver depot, including new Jet engine ones - I have however not seen any evidence of AA working or the drones flying by in someones video.

I doubt it would have been so successfull had the russians not stored ammo, probably against protocol, in large quantities above ground.

That’s what I’m finding interesting. There’s been no return fire from all the videos I’ve seen of the attacks. Of course we have a small sample size and we don’t know everything. That’s why I question how it was done. Jest drones, mass of drones, the famous Russian competence or whatever. I just find it intriguing.

[danfrodo]

55 minutes ago, Silentkilarz said:

I don’t think this is war changer of course but it definitely is throwing some wrenches down the hole for Russia. 

It should reduce what russia can do.  Meat assaults all the more unsupported by shelling, hopefully.

'course, Putin will just keep feeding bodies into this at whatever rate he thinks he can without triggering real revolt.  Sounds like another 180k about to be served up.  That's ~ 6 months of casualties at the current rate.  Then he'll mobilize another 180k in the spring.  Until something gives, somewhere, on one side (or both).

[sburke]

Estonian intelligence believes Ukrainian strike on Russia's Toropets will affect war's course in coming weeks (msn.com)

 

The Estonian General Staff anticipates that Russian forces will experience a significant shortage of ammunition at the front in the coming weeks due to a Ukrainian strike on a depot in the Russian city of Toropets.

Source: Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Head of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, at a press conference hosted by the country's Defence Ministry, as reported by European Pravda, citing Estonian public broadcaster ERR

He stated that Ukraine successfully targeted the storage facility while some of the ammunition was not secured in bunkers, leading to a chain of explosions.

"30,000 tonnes of explosive ordnance were detonated, which means 750,000 shells. If we take the average battle rate, the Russian Federation has fired 10,000 rounds a week. So that's two to three months' supply of ammunition. As a result of this attack, Russia has suffered losses in ammunition and we will see the impact of these losses on the front in the coming weeks," said Kiviselg.
Commenting on the recent events in the ongoing war in Ukraine, Kiviselg noted that Russia continues to maintain the initiative at the operational level.

"Russia's operational pressure on Ukraine has gradually increased this week, reaching 194 incidences of contact per night. This shows that there is still a desire by the Russian Federation to conquer the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts," Kiviselg noted.

The Pokrovsk front is witnessing the highest number of hostilities, similar to last week. "Despite what is happening in Kursk, the Russian Federation has not withdrawn troops from the Pokrovsk direction, and no major change is expected there in the coming weeks," Kiviselg explained.

As for the Ukrainian operation in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces are continuing to hold the initiative at the operational level.

"Russia did launch a counter-attack last week and has advanced slightly, but the Ukrainians are still holding their positions," Kiviselg said. "Last Thursday the Ukrainians also opened up a new offensive corridor in the Glushkovo area, where the Ukrainians have advanced almost six kilometres into Russia," the colonel stressed.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/world/europe/russia-political-expression-prisoners-pavel-kushnir.html

Long a critic of President Vladimir V. Putin, Mr. Kushnir took up political activism with added zeal after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. He spread leaflets damning the war while pushing himself to endure ever longer, harsher hunger strikes. Four blurry, muffled antiwar screeds that he posted on his YouTube channel, which had just five subscribers, landed him in a dark, crumbling jail on Karl Marx Street in Birobidzhan, the remote Siberian provincial capital where he lived.

Now, at age 40, he is dead.

 

A good write up of one of the infinity of tragedies that Putin has inflicted on Russia.

[CHARLIE43]

99(98?) bottles of beer on the wall and divide that by two per. Lots more ammo dumps going kaboom. And then the flood of vids by the criminals and foreigners complaining about their assaults not being supported by arty, half empty magazines and the order to fix bayonets. Tides turned and commanders disappearing with white flags abound (who fights that way anywho?).

Been keepin my eye on another area that is long overdo for a Kursk like offensive. Take away Crimea and drive their Navy out to sea?