How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Second, anyone honestly think that an invasion of Russian home soil and capture of a strategic nuclear sight would not trigger a Russia nuclear response before it could even happen?

 

Ukraine didn't light their NPPs due to invasion and occupation, highly unlikely Russia would escalate in such a manner.

[Ts4EVER]

10 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Just to be clear, I was obviously talking in jest. The idea of using the Kursk NPP that way is as unlikely as Selensky personally riding into Mosocow on a cossack pony to challenge Putin to a sabre duel.

I would like that, let the Russian and western-backed oligarchs fight it out themselves with sabers in a mudpit.

[The_Capt]

21 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I do. All RU nuclear threats is lie for gullible westerners.

I pass that onto the Prime Minister...

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Ukraine didn't light their NPPs due to invasion and occupation, highly unlikely Russia would escalate in such a manner.

So let's just be clear here - you are saying that if the UA made a military run at that Russian nuclear power plant...a strategic asset that could threaten the entire region....on Russian soil and well within Russian nuclear doctrine justification for first use...in your "expert opinion" there is a "highly unlikely" risk of nuclear escalation?

To be blunt, this is a clear demonstration that you have zero idea what you are talking about...

[Grigb]

RU commenting Gerasimov statement (that UKR attack has been stopped)

Quote

Do the local police officers who are currently fighting together with troops who failed to withdraw from Sunzhe know it?

 

[Kraft]

we'll see about nukes, its only a 1h20 drive away. Doubt russia would nuke though, given how by then a NPP near kursk would be there to retaliate to such aggression

[ArmouredTopHat]

Is this the point where I can perhaps state with confidence that cases like this demonstrate how mobile warfare is in fact not dead?
 

This op really does seem to suggest that operational surprise on a reasonable scale is still very much possible. 

Edited August 7 by ArmouredTopHat

[Grigb]

8 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Is this the point where I can perhaps state that cases like this demonstrate how mobile warfare is in fact not dead?

Important clarification - RU do not have strong drone forces there. Possibly they do not have them there at all. 

So, once drones are not present/neutralized (entirely possible for short periods of time) operational surprise and maneuver armored warfare are possible. 

[EDIT] But I'm quite intrigued about the UKR's method of neutralizing RU mines.

Edited August 7 by Grigb

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Important clarification - RU do not have strong drone forces there. Possibly they do not have them there at all. 

So, once drones are not present/neutralized (entirely possible for short periods of time) operational surprise and maneuver armored warfare are possible. 

[EDIT] But I'm quite intrigued about the UKR's method of neutralizing RU mines.

Regarding the limited effectiveness of RU drones, there is an interesting comment regarding the UKR EW.

Quote

AFU deployed a huge amount of EW reconnaissance, EW and electronic jamming equipment along the border with the Kursk region. There has not been such a wide use of technical means on their part for a very long time, even during the Zaporozhye counteroffensive in the summer of 2023.

So, it looks like that we have seen the first example of how to properly conduct modern battle.

[Grigb]

RU local claim

Quote

"In the border village of Lyubimovka [51.31316043206704, 35.02453731321965], the AFU infantry is walking through the streets;

For now, they do not even enter the houses, they march;

In the village of Obukhovka [51.28448835164415, 34.96173048278706], infantry marched through the streets and now tanks are coming in an endless column, a lot."

In the morning towards Lyubimovka an armored vehicle [loosk like BMP] was sent to evacuate local residents. It managed to take out about 50 people. But after another trip, the BMP did not return. Now the contact with the vehicle and the crew is lost.

Korenevo CRB [hospital] stopped receiving the wounded — the last five wounded has left [it] in the chief physician's car and closed the hospital.

In total in the district center Korenevo categorically refused to leave about half of the residents who have their own houses: about 2 thousand people. The rest have left, and it is predicted that the Korenevo district will soon, as well as the neighboring Sudzha district will be under full control of the AFU.

 

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Important clarification - RU do not have strong drone forces there. Possibly they do not have them there at all. 

So, once drones are not present/neutralized (entirely possible for short periods of time) operational surprise and maneuver armored warfare are possible. 

[EDIT] But I'm quite intrigued about the UKR's method of neutralizing RU mines.

What is it with you guys and thinking that drones are the only ISR asset left on the planet?  This line of thinking grossly oversimplifies the problem. It boils it down to "no drones = no ISR = mobile warfare"...which is simply not true.  It was not true before drones, and it is not true after their introduction on the battlefield.

First off we have no idea the level of "surprise" achieved - unless someone is hooked into RA HQ. We know Russian ISR is way behind western and UA ISR, but it is still effective in being to see and react to a massively long frontline.  its OODA loop is slower than western equivalents but we know it still works.

Second, other ISR assets exists in the world.  Loss of drones erodes but sure a hell does not mean the Russians are blind right now.  Everything from old fashion recon AC, radars, human eyes with a radio...still work.  Russia even has space based but we know the refresh time is likely very slow.

Third, tactical surprise maybe, but operational and strategic this is not.  In this case the tactical surprise is just as likely the Russian chain of command not wanting to deliver bad news on something they could do nothing about.  Unless we see a full scale Russia operational collapse the UA will be unable to exploit this.  This is a raid, much like we saw in Belograd last year, and Kharkiv.  Raids can definitely still happen...they did in WW1 as well.  But they cannot produce results in creating the conditions for manoeuvre warfare...or at least cannot right now.

Russia has eyes on this thing by now and is likely reacting...which was likely the point of the entire exercise.  Perhaps to take pressure off somewhere else. If the RA is in truly bad shape somewhere else, perhaps we could see the lead up to a major push.  But again this is not "surprise" it would be "collapse".

[FancyCat]

42 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So let's just be clear here - you are saying that if the UA made a military run at that Russian nuclear power plant...a strategic asset that could threaten the entire region....on Russian soil and well within Russian nuclear doctrine justification for first use...in your "expert opinion" there is a "highly unlikely" risk of nuclear escalation?

To be blunt, this is a clear demonstration that you have zero idea what you are talking about...

I'm a "expert"? News to me.

Russia says a lot of things. Let's look at actions, has Ukraine ever done anything for Russia to fear the occupation of its NPPs could result in catastrophe? The answer is no, not even drone attacks on Russian NPPs. Has Ukraine not urged for neutrality zones for the occupied Nuclear Plants under Russian control? Yes. Has Ukraine ever threatened nuclear or other escalation in response to Russian threatened or occurred occupation of their NPPs? No.

If I'm Russia, do I increase the rhetoric to ward off the occupation of Kursk, paranoid about the NPP, yet I must be mindful of the fact that I then have to answer questions about the supposed on the brink collapse of the Ukrainian military. A near collapsing Ukraine does not advance and occupy Russian territory, much less advance to Kursk, much less (despite whatever paranoia) justify nuclear escalation due to a perceived threat to Kursk and the Russian regime. If I'm Russia I do not want to overhype the Ukrainian incursion at all.

If I'm Ukraine, well worried about their NPPs under Russian control, having long emphasized UN neutral zones for my own NPPs, I would simply underscore whatever far off threat to Kursk that Russia might fear, should only mean the adoption of the Ukrainian proposal for neutral UN protection of NPPs. Hardly a escalatory move, asking the UN whom Russia sits as a permanent security council member to protect NPPs.

Edited August 7 by FancyCat

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Regarding the limited effectiveness of RU drones, there is an interesting comment regarding the UKR EW.

So, it looks like that we have seen the first example of how to properly conduct modern battle.

So wait a minute...the RA did not notice the massive EW uptick?  Right before an offensive?  You guys realize EW makes a lot of "noise".

Here is a crazy idea...attacking an area with only border guards and security forces, "works." It worked at Kharkiv, and it worked here.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

Ukraine taking Kursk NPP and then saying "we'll return Kursk NPP if you f- off from Zaporozhia NPP" would be hilarious.

Yes it would!

[The_Capt]

Just now, FancyCat said:

I'm a "expert"? News to me.

No you are not and have demonstrated it pretty well, again.

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

Russia says a lot of things. Let's look at actions, has Ukraine ever done anything for Russia to fear the occupation of its NPPs could result in catastrophe? The answer is no, not even drone attacks on Russian NPPs. Has Ukraine not urged for neutrality zones for the occupied Nuclear Plants under Russian control? Yes. Has Ukraine ever threatened nuclear or other escalation in response to Russian threatened or occurred occupation of their NPPs? No.

If I'm Russia, do I increase the rhetoric to ward off the occupation of Kursk, paranoid about the NPP, yet I must be mindful of the fact that I then have to answer questions about the supposed on the brink collapse of the Ukrainian military. A near collapsing Ukraine does not advance and occupy Russian territory, much less advance to Kursk, much less (despite whatever paranoia) justify nuclear escalation due to a perceived threat to Kursk and the Russian regime. If I'm Russia I do not want to overhype the ukraririan incursion at all.

If I'm Ukraine, well worried about their NPPs under Russian control, having long emphasized UN neutral zones for my own NPPs, I would simply underscore whatever far off threat to Kursk that Russia might fear, should only mean the adoption of the Ukrainian proposal for neutral UN protection of NPPs. Hardly a escalatory move, asking the UN whom Russia sits as a permanent security council member to protect NPPs.

First off, we have zero idea how close we have already come to a nuclear escalation. You check social media - your only real sources - and do not see any credible stories from whatever echo chamber you live inside. "Any mention of nuclear escalation...nope...cool?"  That is the sum total of your assessment.  This is basically the equivalent of "We know there are tigers in those trees. But I have not seen one yet, so I will keep rubbing peanut butter on myself."

Here is what I see.  I see western governments being extremely cautious.  We are not conducting airstrikes into Russia, nor are we endorsing Ukrainian actions.  Why?  Well the silly and easy answer is - "well western powers are cowards".  This is dumb.  The west has a serious problem on its hands and needs to try and steer out of it.  If there was an easy button answer do you not seriously think any western power would not have already taken it to make this thing go away.  These sorts of unsolvable crisis are pure political poison, especially for the US in an election year.  They want this all to go away, they need it to go away...but it won't.

Next, there is an entire world behind that curtain. Signals, intelligence and plain old red phonecalls.  Stuff we never see on "X" or Telegram or whatever.  For all we know, we have been to the edge and back.  Nuclear controls are human based systems and as such prone to error.  So while you are all "well no mushroom clouds yet...Tik Tok says so" the massive intelligence and diplomatic enterprises are seeing the real data and informing decision makers.

As to your UN solution...seriously?  We are going to roll in UN security into active warzones to secure NPPs?  In Russia?  Well you definitely are not an expert.  Can we get John Kettler back in here...at least his crazy was better thought out.

[ArmouredTopHat]

41 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Important clarification - RU do not have strong drone forces there. Possibly they do not have them there at all. 

So, once drones are not present/neutralized (entirely possible for short periods of time) operational surprise and maneuver armored warfare are possible. 

[EDIT] But I'm quite intrigued about the UKR's method of neutralizing RU mines.

I dont doubt the Russians had less forces / drones in the region, which is exactly my point really. Some here have argued that with drones in the skies such attacks were meant to be impossible with every inch of the line under observation. The reality is seemingly not quite that.

Which matches with the impression that the front is perhaps a little more porous than previously perceived, even in Ukraine itself. Been hearing a few tidbits about how infantry infiltration is possible (though of course if detected it usually ends badly)

I find it amusing that some compare this to a trench raid when the scale of territory taken is so very broad. Sure Ukraine cant exploit it as much as they like, but casually surging dozens of miles into hostile territory in an day is no mean feat. Also interesting to see a claim that the Russians 'obviously' detected this coming but did nothing about it. Then why are they throwing Iskanders at the problem?

[Grigb]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So wait a minute...the RA did not notice the massive EW uptick?  Right before an offensive?  You guys realize EW makes a lot of "noise".

There is a power button on EW devices. Unless it switched on EW device is "invisible" until right moment

 

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Here is a crazy idea...attacking an area with only border guards and security forces, "works." It worked at Kharkiv, and it worked here.

You continently "forgot" about mines, artillery and aviation. 

UKR somehow neutralized mines, blinded RU artillery by jamming drones, hit aviation with interceptor drones and SAMs. 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, hcrof said:

If Ukraine has the gas junction, can they fill up their winter supplies from russian stocks? Or keep gas flowing to Europe for free unless Russia shuts down the flow to their own regions as well?

I really would like someone to explain what Ukraine can and cannot do with the gas junction, if in fact they have it. I find it interesting that the Russians are not threatening to blow it up.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So wait a minute...the RA did not notice the massive EW uptick?  Right before an offensive?  You guys realize EW makes a lot of "noise".

Here is a crazy idea...attacking an area with only border guards and security forces, "works." It worked at Kharkiv, and it worked here.

What this really proves is tha the Russians are on the limit, in terms of both physical, and cognitive, resources. Someone knew the defenses here were very thin, someone almost certainly knew the Ukrainians were preparing for something. Russia couldn't shift away from other commitments fast enough to stop it. whether the Ukrainians will gain or lose in the end from this effort is simply not known yet, but it is never bad to make the other side scramble.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So let's just be clear here - you are saying that if the UA made a military run at that Russian nuclear power plant...a strategic asset that could threaten the entire region....on Russian soil and well within Russian nuclear doctrine justification for first use...in your "expert opinion" there is a "highly unlikely" risk of nuclear escalation?

To be blunt, this is a clear demonstration that you have zero idea what you are talking about...

Two larger scale issues. We keep saying that Ukraine needs to fight this war politely, with zero risky moves of various sorts. Yet we send them about half the equipment they need, and tell them that they can shoot some weapons at some airbases, but not other weapons at other airbases. I don't think they will do anything crazy with the Kursk nuclear plant, and I don't think they should. But it is a very bad assumption that Ukraine won't do SOMETHING, if their situation gets desperate enough. So maybe we should not let  that happen. 

This is also a useful corrective for Jake Sullivans conviction that he can control the entire glide path of this conflict at will. The safe thing to do is WIN, and always has been. 

Last but not least you mentioned a while back that "The West" has forgotten about how to deal with a real enemy, as opposed to a severe annoyance. Somewhere in this discussion is more proof of that.

Edited August 7 by dan/california

[Kraft]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I see western governments being extremely cautious.  We are not conducting airstrikes into Russia, nor are we endorsing Ukrainian actions.  Why?

The decision for scholz, biden et al. is: risk anything or let ukrainians die by the consequence, their decision making has been fairly consistent throughout. 

Politically, what would they gain by endorsing strikes? If one misses and hits a school it can only hurt them.

Edited August 7 by Kraft

[ArmouredTopHat]

Certainly an impression that they are capturing quite a few Russians too. (Probably just pooling POWs captured during the day, but its still a haul nonetheless)

I think these raids do more damage than people realise to the Russian regime. They have been telling its people for years how Ukraine are finished and how strong they are in turn, yet these incursions continue to happen. 

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What is it with you guys and thinking that drones are the only ISR asset left on the planet?  This line of thinking grossly oversimplifies the problem.

The problem is not with us. 

You said

Quote

We know Russian ISR is way behind western and UA ISR, but it is still effective in being to see and react to a massively long frontline. 

And here is reality check - RU comment regarding HIMARS

Quote

The means of destruction of these systems [HIMARs] were Lancet and Iskander . They remain invulnerable to our other weapons systems.

The truth is - your idea about all seeing magical operational and strategic eyes with wonder OTH strikes is pure fantasy.

RU do not see anything if there is no RU  drone above it. 

Or do you want to know What RU Commander of the 58th Army of the Southern District, Major General Ivan Popov (called by RU as breaker of UKR summer offense) called the main tragedy of modern war?

• Not Magic Operational and Strategic "eyes"
• Not Wonder OTH strikes against RU logistics
• Not Wonder OTH strikes against larger then company RU formations

It was UKR artillery murdering RU front line soldiers (that was before FPVs). Just like I said quoting RU officer that RU main reason to disperse is UKR artillery, not your fantasy about magical eyes and wonder OTH strikes against logistics and formations in the rear.

[ArmouredTopHat]

Imagine Adolf Hitler issuing a speech about how the Allied D-Day landings are 'another large scale provocation' 

He really does live in a clown world. 

Edited August 7 by ArmouredTopHat

[ArmouredTopHat]

Not seen such large hauls of prisoners in a while from both sides. Testament to the speed and effectiveness of the operation so far. 

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, Grigb said:

There is a power button on EW devices. Unless it switched on EW device is "invisible" until right moment

 

You continently "forgot" about mines, artillery and aviation. 

UKR somehow neutralized mines, blinded RU artillery by jamming drones, hit aviation with interceptor drones and SAMs. 

Just how densely manned was this front?  What aviation and interceptor drones?  I have seen nothing (besides you) make the claim that this was a highly defended, heavily mined, covered by all sorts of artillery, frontage.  The RA is already stretched thin across the invasion front, let alone its own border.  Where did all these assets the UA neutralized come from.  Frankly, this borders on propaganda inflation.

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

I dont doubt the Russians had less forces / drones in the region, which is exactly my point really. Some here have argued that with drones in the skies such attacks were meant to be impossible with every inch of the line under observation. The reality is seemingly not quite that.

Which matches with the impression that the front is perhaps a little more porous than previously perceived, even in Ukraine itself. Been hearing a few tidbits about how infantry infiltration is possible (though of course if detected it usually ends badly)

I find it amusing that some compare this to a trench raid when the scale of territory taken is so very broad. Sure Ukraine cant exploit it as much as they like, but casually surging dozens of miles into hostile territory in an day is no mean feat. Also interesting to see a claim that the Russians 'obviously' detected this coming but did nothing about it. Then why are they throwing Iskanders at the problem?

Reality is very nuanced. 

• With drones in the sky such attack are indeed impossible. But right now we have technology to deal with like 90% of drones on the battlefield. So, we can (and probably this is what UKR did) deal with RU long range drones at least temporally leaving them to be able to observe only very narrow strip of front line.  As I said RU see only what RU drone see. Destroy RU drone and they are blind. UKR developed interceptor drones, intercepted RU long range recon drones and jammed everything else.
• Infiltration is possible but technology is not here yet. We have blankets and suites but they are heavy, bulky and uncomfortable. Also faces and hands is problem. That's why it's mostly rely on shortage of drones with thermals. So, practically with front line infantry you can get very close but that's it.
• Operational surprise with secret concentration is still on the menu (if done right). 
• Armored maneuver is still possible if drones and mines (and everything else like arty and aviation) are neutralized.

We must not fall in the trap of extreme thinking. Drones changed everything but they did not invalidated previous tenets of warfare.