How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

It's the Bomber Damage Analysis fallacy. Yes...we hear about and see the obnoxious Russian emigres behaving badly. We don't hear about the many, many others who are real refuges from Putinist repression and/or bitter enemies of it. In my anecdotal experience, they far outnumber the loons. Kraze can indulge himself in this bigotry if he wants to. I will not. 

Well, on second thought the Baltics might not be the best example as the majority of those people were moved there, deliberately, by the Soviet State in order to interfere with domestic affairs.  This may be different from people who have uprooted themselves and moved from Russia to elsewhere.

While I disagree with Kraze that the majority of expat Russians are all raving, drooling lunatic fringe... they do show an affinity for Mother Russia that is at odds with their lives in the West:

Quote

In one European Values Study conducted in Lithuania, 54% of those whose first language was Russian agreed with the statement -- pushed by Moscow -- that Russia's policies are an adequate response to US and NATO actions directed against it.

A further 48 per cent said they thought Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, lawfully belonged to Russia. 

And:

Quote

According to Šešelgytė, support for Russia and Putin is "quite high" in Lithuanian's Russian-speaking schools. 

She pointed to the fact that many teachers inside the schools were Russian, alongside the use of the Russian language which "helps construct an identity of who they are". 

“The schools are places where Russian propaganda and disinformation still reaches the younger segment of the society,"  Šešelgytė said. 

"It is a challenge we have to think about."

There are currently 48 Russian schools in Lithuania, teaching some 14,000 pupils each year. 

In an effort to curtail Russia's influence, Lithuania banned Russian and Belarussian TV channels in 2022 and blocked many Russian news outlets online. 

My bold.  This is no accident.  It is the result of direction and effort from the Putin regime as part of its overall campaign to undermine the Baltics specifically and the West generally.  It will be interesting to see how much this changes because of the war.  I expect it will change for the better.

And this:

Quote

However, Šešelgytė said the situation in Lithuania was "not as bad as in other Baltic states", where there are large Russian-speaking minorities. 

And lastly a note of optimism:

Quote

This general climate, said Šešelgytė, was pushing Russian-speaking Lithuanians to disagree with the war. 

...

"What we have succeeded in doing is pushing a message that the war is caused by the Russian regime and that are Russian speakers are safe," she said. "This is not a witch hunt.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/06/14/why-lithuania-is-polarised-over-russia-s-war-in-ukraine

As I said, the problem is real.  It does exist.  The issue is how it is characterized in terms of universality and permanence.  In both respects Kraze is flat out wrong, even though he is correct that there's something to pay attention to.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

While there is no Grigb on the forum. I will try to translate Mashovets' posts. I can't guarantee an excellent result, as my English leaves much to be desired, and there are a lot of special military terms in his posts

Thanks!  His posts are missed.

Steve

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

1st Army Corps (DPR):

Corps HQ (Donetsk - all names of settlements given according to new decommunized names)

Separate units, directly subordinated to HQ:

- separate control and HQ security battalion "Pautina" (Donetsk)

- separate commandant regiment (Donetsk)

- 2nd tank battalion "Dizel" (Donetsk)

- separate naval infantry recon battalion "Sparta" (Donetsk)

- separate motor-rifle assault battalion "Somali" (Donetsk)

- 1st Spetsnaz battalion "Khan" (Donetsk)

- 3rd Spetsnaz battalion (Donetsk)

- separate engineer-sapper company (Donetsk)

- separate SAM battalion (Donetsk)

- separate EW company (Donetsk)

- separate UAV company (Donetsk)

- repair battlion "Kongo" (Donetsk)

- logistical&supply batalion (Donetsk) 

 

Combat core:

- artillery brigade "Kalmius" (new name Tactical Group "Kolchuga" almost doesn't use)

- 1st MRB "Slavianskaya" (Kal'mius'ke)

- 3rd MRB "Berkut" (Horlivka)

- 5th MRB "Oplot" (Dokuchayevsk, Donetsk)

- 100th MRB, so-called "Republican Guard" (Donetsk)

- so-called "International brigade "Pyatnashka" (attached to 100th MBR, really about 1,5 battalions, represented mostly Abkhazian and Osetians volunteers)

- 9th naval infantry regiment (Novoazovsk) 

- 11th motor-rifle regiment "Vostok" (Donetsk)

 

Territorioal defense battalions:

- 1st TDB (Makiivka, Horlivka)

- 2nd TDB "Shakhtiorskaya diviziya" (eng. "Coalminer division") (Donetsk, attached to 11th motor-rifle regiment)

- 3rd TDB (military builders) (Horlivka, attached to 100th MRB) 

- 4th TDB (Donetsk, attached to 100th MRB)

- 5th TDB 

- 6th TDB

 

Internal Troops:

- brigade "Vostok" (Donetsk), not to be confused with 11th MRR "Vostok"

- 1st operative purpose battalion "Patriot" (Donetsk)

- 41st operative regiment

- 52nd operative regment

- 1st Spetsnaz company

- 3rd cossack company (Khartsyzs'k)

- 4th company "Rubezh" (Zugres)

 

State Security Service:

- security regiment  - battalions "Patriot", "Legion", "Vityaz' " (Donetsk)

Emergency Service

- battlion "Legion" (despite they nominaly are emergency service, in real they have a weapon)

 

2nd ARMY CORPS (LPR)

Corps HQ (Luhansk)

Separate units, directly subordinated to HQ:

- separate control and HQ security battalion (Luhansk)

- separate commandant regiment (Luhansk)

- 4nd tank battalion nemed after st.prince Aleksandr Nevskiy (former name "Avgust") (Luhansk)

- separate recon battalion (Luhansk)

- separate motor-rifle women battalion "Rus' " (Sorokyne) 

- spetsnaz battalion (Luhansk)

- separate engineer-sapper company (Luhansk)

- separate SAM battalion (Donetsk)

- separate EW company (Luhansk)

- separate UAV company (Luhansk)

- repair battlion (Luhansk)

- logistical&supply batalion (Luhansk) 

 

Combat core:

- 10th special purpose brigade (artillery brigade)

- 2nd MRB (Luhansk)

- 4th MRB "Zarya" (Khrustal'nyi)

- 7th MRB (Brianka)

- 6th cossack MRR (Kadiivka)

 

Territorial defense battalions:

- 11th TDB "Ataman" (Stanytsia Luhanska district)

- 12th TDB "Rim" (Dovzhans'k)

- 13th TDB "Kul'kin" (Roven'ky)

- 14th TDB "Prizrak" (Holubivka, Donetskyi)

- 15th TDB "SSSR" (Brianka)

- 16th TDB "Leshiy" (Antratsyt)

- 17th TDB "Bolshoy" (Slavianoserbsk district)

- 18th TDB "Pokhodnyi" (Khrustal'nyi)

Wow, thanks!

[Zeleban]

Curious details about the arrest of Boguslaev, director of the Motor Sich plant. It turns out that he managed to supply engines for helicopters to Russia after the start of a full-scale invasion. Including through third countries, for example through Croatia. The SBU posted a number of materials of wiretapping of his telephone conversations

Edited October 24, 2022 by Zeleban

[Zeleban]

 

as we can see, even in the face of serious sanctions, Russia is able to obtain the parts necessary for its military industry.

[Battlefront.com]

Thanks for posting these reports! 

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

3. At first glance, this may look somewhat strange, but in my opinion, in this case, the Russian command made a completely correct and logical decision ... Why?

I agree with Mashovets.  Looking at the map the northeastern part of Luhansk is difficult for Ukraine to break into, both in terms of terrain but also in terms of how far away it is from established logistics centers.    It would take a long time for a breakthrough there to amount to serious threat for Severodonetsk and pre 2022 LPR territory.  A breakthrough in Kremminna, on the other hand, would have immediate implications for Russia's defenses south.  Plus, the last thing Putin wants is for people to start reading about battles for cities that people know of from the summer's offensive.  It's the sort of psychological effect that Russia needs less of, for sure.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

as we can see, even in the face of serious sanctions, Russia is able to obtain the parts necessary for its military industry.

Yes, but at great effort and at risk of "burning bridges".  Who knows how valuable Boguslaev was to the Kremlin, however I suspect he was pretty important to them.  Now his value is zero because the sanctions worked at exposing who he really is.

Steve

[Zeleban]

I found an interesting post about Russian aviation:

Over the past week, the Russians lost two new combat aircraft in a "non-combat" situation: October 17 - Su-34 near Yeysk, which fell into a residential building, and from today, 23 Su-30SM in Irkutsk. - How severe is the loss of 2 new combat aircraft, show the such numbers. In 2021, the Russian military-industrial complex produced a total of 21 combat aircraft for the army of the Russian Federation - 6 Su-34 aircraft, 5 Su-35S aircraft, 4 Su-30SM2 aircraft, 2 Su-57 type aircraft, 2 MiG-35 fighters and 2 training-combat aircraft Yak -130.

 

But for 9 months of 2022, the Russian aviation industry delivered only 7 combat aircraft - 4 Su-34M and 3 Su-35S, and this was the "tail" of deliveries that were to be made back in 2021. (Well, and for the sake of justice, the Aviastar plant in Ulyanovsk handed over 3 Il-76MD-90A transport aircraft, which were supposed to be delivered to the Russian army last year). And that's all.

At this pace, the Russians will have at least 20 years to restore the losses of their Luftwaffe received over the last 8 months of the war against Ukraine. Against such a background, even 2 combat aircraft for rashists are literally worth their weight in gold. Therefore, let them continue to “destroy” their aircraft at the same pace in a non-combat situation.

The Russians do not yet have their own mobilization "analogue" of the T-62 in aviation. Therefore, they will have to use ersatz.

For example, in early October, the enemy removed up to 30 MiG-29 and MiG-29SMT aircraft from mothballing, but this is only enough for an air regiment. Before the war, the Russians had about a hundred combat training Yak-130s, and perhaps this “palliative” of the Russian army will have to be put into battle.

At the beginning of April 2022, Belarus had in storage up to 20 Su-27 and Su-24 units, decommissioned back in 2012. And there is every reason to believe that soon these planes will also become the property of the Russians.

The Russians can literally squeeze all the juice out of themselves in order to return to service the maximum possible number of reactivated aircraft. But they have nowhere to squeeze out the qualifications of pilots.

 

Yes, Russia near the front line has "on paper" 800 aircraft and helicopters of all types and purposes - combat, transport, auxiliary and others. But in fact, this is 80% of all military aviation that the Russians have, the remaining 20% are “smeared” over other territory.

 

The maximum that managed to show the Russian aviation grouping on the borders with Ukraine is about 290 demonstration sorties per day on August 24, 2022, and even then without entering the zone of our air defense. And so that it’s not a day - it’s a downed rashist. So it goes.

Edited October 24, 2022 by Zeleban

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, acrashb said:

People like me did not.  I work in tech, and my exposure to Russians - going back to the early '90s - has been people who were educated and urban, which I assumed reflected the general population.  I expect that this would be similar for analysts like ISW, and while they have less excuse, this type of exposure would skew the thought process.

This goes beyond sloppy / easy macro quantitative vs. harder-work micro-qualitative and into cultural assumptions.  I'm still trying to build a full picture of why (almost) every analyst was wrong.

 

Yeah, that’s an excellent observation. Possibly confirmation bias. It also suggests that the impact that Steve and others point out about the molasses-like drag of culture on learning new behaviors is why sheer knowledge doesn’t correct the many Russian military failures we see. Not because Russians are inherently stupid or intellectually -racially - stunted! Also why the undoubted access to the military training and doctrine materials of the Western/NATO Powers especially regarding lower ranks initiative, the critical importance of NCOs, etc hasn’t altered Russian behavior…Why not even the demonstrated superiority of the West’s training and ethics as well as technology hasn’t affected fundamental change in the Russian military. 
 

Deeply embedded culturally inherited fundamental belief system of what is the “right” way to do things; that is truly resistant to change. Equally, the emotional understanding of what is terribly “wrong” - un-Russian, so to speak. Make no mistake. We all, all nations have our national ethos, and our notions that ours is better than yours. But some are far more hobbling or even toxic than others.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

1st Army Corps (DPR):

Corps HQ (Donetsk - all names of settlements given according to new decommunized names)

Separate units, directly subordinated to HQ:

- separate control and HQ security battalion "Pautina" (Donetsk)

- separate commandant regiment (Donetsk)

- 2nd tank battalion "Dizel" (Donetsk)

- separate naval infantry recon battalion "Sparta" (Donetsk)

- separate motor-rifle assault battalion "Somali" (Donetsk)

- 1st Spetsnaz battalion "Khan" (Donetsk)

- 3rd Spetsnaz battalion (Donetsk)

- separate engineer-sapper company (Donetsk)

- separate SAM battalion (Donetsk)

- separate EW company (Donetsk)

- separate UAV company (Donetsk)

- repair battlion "Kongo" (Donetsk)

- logistical&supply batalion (Donetsk) 

 

Combat core:

- artillery brigade "Kalmius" (new name Tactical Group "Kolchuga" almost doesn't use)

- 1st MRB "Slavianskaya" (Kal'mius'ke)

- 3rd MRB "Berkut" (Horlivka)

- 5th MRB "Oplot" (Dokuchayevsk, Donetsk)

- 100th MRB, so-called "Republican Guard" (Donetsk)

- so-called "International brigade "Pyatnashka" (attached to 100th MBR, really about 1,5 battalions, represented mostly Abkhazian and Osetians volunteers)

- 9th naval infantry regiment (Novoazovsk) 

- 11th motor-rifle regiment "Vostok" (Donetsk)

 

Territorioal defense battalions:

- 1st TDB (Makiivka, Horlivka)

- 2nd TDB "Shakhtiorskaya diviziya" (eng. "Coalminer division") (Donetsk, attached to 11th motor-rifle regiment)

- 3rd TDB (military builders) (Horlivka, attached to 100th MRB) 

- 4th TDB (Donetsk, attached to 100th MRB)

- 5th TDB 

- 6th TDB

 

Internal Troops:

- brigade "Vostok" (Donetsk), not to be confused with 11th MRR "Vostok"

- 1st operative purpose battalion "Patriot" (Donetsk)

- 41st operative regiment

- 52nd operative regment

- 1st Spetsnaz company

- 3rd cossack company (Khartsyzs'k)

- 4th company "Rubezh" (Zugres)

 

State Security Service:

- security regiment  - battalions "Patriot", "Legion", "Vityaz' " (Donetsk)

Emergency Service

- battlion "Legion" (despite they nominaly are emergency service, in real they have a weapon)

 

2nd ARMY CORPS (LPR)

Corps HQ (Luhansk)

Separate units, directly subordinated to HQ:

- separate control and HQ security battalion (Luhansk)

- separate commandant regiment (Luhansk)

- 4nd tank battalion nemed after st.prince Aleksandr Nevskiy (former name "Avgust") (Luhansk)

- separate recon battalion (Luhansk)

- separate motor-rifle women battalion "Rus' " (Sorokyne) 

- spetsnaz battalion (Luhansk)

- separate engineer-sapper company (Luhansk)

- separate SAM battalion (Donetsk)

- separate EW company (Luhansk)

- separate UAV company (Luhansk)

- repair battlion (Luhansk)

- logistical&supply batalion (Luhansk) 

 

Combat core:

- 10th special purpose brigade (artillery brigade)

- 2nd MRB (Luhansk)

- 4th MRB "Zarya" (Khrustal'nyi)

- 7th MRB (Brianka)

- 6th cossack MRR (Kadiivka)

 

Territorial defense battalions:

- 11th TDB "Ataman" (Stanytsia Luhanska district)

- 12th TDB "Rim" (Dovzhans'k)

- 13th TDB "Kul'kin" (Roven'ky)

- 14th TDB "Prizrak" (Holubivka, Donetskyi)

- 15th TDB "SSSR" (Brianka)

- 16th TDB "Leshiy" (Antratsyt)

- 17th TDB "Bolshoy" (Slavianoserbsk district)

- 18th TDB "Pokhodnyi" (Khrustal'nyi)

MRB would be ~700 soldiers? Three companies and a weapons company? Plus or minus a hundred from unit to unit?

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The only two that matter?  Sorry, I couldn't resist

Steve

Going…going…GONE! Out of the park!!

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Curious details about the arrest of Boguslaev, director of the Motor Sich plant. It turns out that he managed to supply engines for helicopters to Russia after the start of a full-scale invasion. Including through third countries, for example through Croatia. The SBU posted a number of materials of wiretapping of his telephone conversations

So what is the sentence for treason in Ukraine? Because that sound like a very short trial. Or....Could/would Ukraine trade him for a LARGE number of Ukrainian POWs?

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, IanL said:

Indeed spot on. However the new way of trying to nation build and create infrastructure had a problem: it turned out we were funding the Taliban's insurgency with some of the cash that was supposed to be building stuff. As a tax payer I'm not find of that outcome either.

Agree with this and the previous comments by my betters here. But what I have never been able to fully grasp is why the USA at the time, after smashing up al Qaeda if not fully, rather well, did not then announce loudly and clearly that “We are leaving now (translated: we saw what just recently happened to Russia when it rather overstayed its welcome). DO NOT frak with us ever again because the next time THE STARK FIST OF REMOVAL will arrive very very quickly and thoroughly.”…and get the heck out. 
 

I mean, we must have learned *something* from Vietnam, followed by Russia’s Afghan Adventure. Fortunately, so far, this feels very different.

[Beleg85]

Zeleban and Haiduk, these were excellent posts. We lacked detailed Mashoviets analysis here.

Something broke this railway in Belarus. Curiously if they were Ukrainians or locals. Guys from MotolkoHelp by this time are largely on emigration or in prisons, and it is only 20 km from the border.

Speaking of which, there are reports that Belarusians did moved part of their mobilized troops from the border.

[NamEndedAllen]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

As the Science Officer Ash once said, "still collating data".

Yikes! Look how THAT turned out!

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Personally, I think the Russians plan on keeping Kherson as a fortified city.  I don't think they are going to fully withdraw as they did around Kyiv and Kharkiv City.  Putin's got too much riding on this particular city and he probably is thinking "I approved of abandoning Kyiv and Kharkiv, and what good came from that?".

What I predicted long ago, though, is that this plan isn't viable.  I don't think Russia's best units or worst ones have shown much interest in dying to defend something.  Dying to take something?  Yes, but that's not what this is about.  Look at eastern Kupyansk and Lyman for recent examples, or for that matter the northern portion of the Kherson bridgehead. 

If Putin orders the MoD to hold the city they will of course try to do that, and for a while they probably will do so reasonably effectively.  However, at some point the forces in Kherson will see that it's pointless and try to flee even if there are blocking units (and I presume there will be).  They will not fight to the last man in the last basement.

Steve

My fear is similar, but darker. IIRC, blasted buildings and rubble make pretty good defensive holds. Better than pristine streets, homes and business districts. And so the Russians make sure that Kherson IS that, and of course blame Ukraine. All ultimately in the service of “if I can’t have it, you can’t either”. When it’s over Putin cares less about casualties than about human rights. He can say, “See? We are smashing the ungrateful Little Brothers just as they deserve.”

I don’t like this scenario! Hoping for a far better outcome, somehow.

[NamEndedAllen]

7 hours ago, sburke said:

man we are in more trouble than I thought if Philly=US....

A man's (city) got to know his limitations..

 

 

WHAT? The Liberty Bell!

Signing of the Declaration of Independence!

Independence Hall!

Billy Pen’s Statue! No, wait. ROCKY’S Statue!!!

And…CHEESESTAKES, um…STEAKS! Although autocorrect suggestion is kind of interesting!

PS “Iggles” 6-0

Edited October 25, 2022 by NamEndedAllen
Spelling! Thanks!!

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

WHAT? The Liberty Bell!

Signing of the Devoaration of Independence!

Independence Hall!

Billy Pen’s Statue! No, wait. ROCKY’S Statue!!!

And…CHEESESTAKES

PS Iggules 

tsk tsk.... CHEESESTEAKS.  It isn't a lottery ticket.  The other misspellings weren't as important.  

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, on second thought the Baltics might not be the best example as the majority of those people were moved there, deliberately, by the Soviet State in order to interfere with domestic affairs.  This may be different from people who have uprooted themselves and moved from Russia to elsewhere.

While I disagree with Kraze that the majority of expat Russians are all raving, drooling lunatic fringe... they do show an affinity for Mother Russia that is at odds with their lives in the West:

And:

My bold.  This is no accident.  It is the result of direction and effort from the Putin regime as part of its overall campaign to undermine the Baltics specifically and the West generally.  It will be interesting to see how much this changes because of the war.  I expect it will change for the better.

And this:

And lastly a note of optimism:

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/06/14/why-lithuania-is-polarised-over-russia-s-war-in-ukraine

As I said, the problem is real.  It does exist.  The issue is how it is characterized in terms of universality and permanence.  In both respects Kraze is flat out wrong, even though he is correct that there's something to pay attention to.

Steve

I have no problem with identifying the dangers inherent in Russian fifth columns in the Baltics or anywhere else. That's a legitimate issue and worthy of concern. The essentialist logic Kraze applies to *every* Russian isn't just reprehensible. It is completely inaccurate and It actually reflects the mindset that Putin and his ilk bring to social and international relations. It is precisely what, ostensibly, we are fighting. And unless someone knows how to overthrow a nuclear armed state without triggering Armageddon, we are going to need those people down the line to help a normalized Russia state to come about.

[billbindc]

47 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Agree with this and the previous comments by my betters here. But what I have never been able to fully grasp is why the USA at the time, after smashing up al Qaeda if not fully, rather well, did not then announce loudly and clearly that “We are leaving now (translated: we saw what just recently happened to Russia when it rather overstayed its welcome). DO NOT frak with us ever again because the next time THE STARK FIST OF REMOVAL will arrive very very quickly and thoroughly.”…and get the heck out. 
 

I mean, we must have learned *something* from Vietnam, followed by Russia’s Afghan Adventure. Fortunately, so far, this feels very different.

First hubris and then political and media inertia. A lot of careers and budgets orbited around Afghanistan. One need only look at the CNN roster of on air personnel 50 and up. Almost all got an enormous boost from Afghanistan career-wise at the beginning and then swung back every few years to write a book or do a 'thoughtful piece on why we are/are not winning the war'. That dynamic made ending it political poison...as we saw last year.

[billbindc]

I've been hitting conservatives in Congress pretty hard lately for getting soft on Ukraine aid. Today, egged on by the clowns at the Quincy Institute, the Progressive Caucus put their oar in the water. Their letter below is a tissue of caveats and attaboys for Biden that they seem to have believed would cushion their call for the US to essentially beg Putin to negotiate.   

https://progressives.house.gov/_cache/files/5/5/5523c5cc-4028-4c46-8ee1-b56c7101c764/B7B3674EFB12D933EA4A2B97C7405DD4.10-24-22-cpc-letter-for-diplomacy-on-russia-ukraine-conflict.pdf

This take was so anathema to pretty much everyone in DC who doesn't hang around with MTG that they had to 'clarify' (that's DC speak for rapidly abandon) their statement. Idiots.

 

 

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I have no problem with identifying the dangers inherent in Russian fifth columns in the Baltics or anywhere else. That's a legitimate issue and worthy of concern. The essentialist logic Kraze applies to *every* Russian isn't just reprehensible. It is completely inaccurate and It actually reflects the mindset that Putin and his ilk bring to social and international relations. It is precisely what, ostensibly, we are fighting. And unless someone knows how to overthrow a nuclear armed state without triggering Armageddon, we are going to need those people down the line to help a normalized Russia state to come about.

The Russian and Ukrainian student societies at Stanford Univ held a joint rally against the war.  It isn't that hard to find Russians who are actually not orcs.  The problem is there are simply too few right now and it'll likely take a couple generations to truly alter the Russian mindset.  Hell just look at the politics involved in history (and math.. and science for crying out loud) here in the US.

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

• there was a focus on counting tanks, IFVs, troops, missile batteries, etc. without much regard to qualitative capabilities of each
• vast underestimation of the degree the soldiers manning these systems were proficient in their use
• it was presumed that recent battlefield experiences (Iran-Iraq War for Iraq, 2014/2015 Ukraine and Georgia for Russia) leads to reflection, rethinking, and adjustments even when things go well but especially when they don't.  This led experts to wildly overestimate how much recent battlefield experiences helped Iraq and Russia prepare for the next war
• underestimating the degree of stress the forces could take before reaching combat ineffectiveness

This post made me think of something not easily known, so not often spoken of: more Intel reliance on national technical means than on human intelligence. And some of the enumerated issues smack of focusing on what we know, and not on what is missing.

[Beleg85]

32 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I have no problem with identifying the dangers inherent in Russian fifth columns in the Baltics or anywhere else. That's a legitimate issue and worthy of concern. The essentialist logic Kraze applies to *every* Russian isn't just reprehensible. It is completely inaccurate and It actually reflects the mindset that Putin and his ilk bring to social and international relations. It is precisely what, ostensibly, we are fighting. And unless someone knows how to overthrow a nuclear armed state without triggering Armageddon, we are going to need those people down the line to help a normalized Russia state to come about.

About not puting everyone into one basket- fully agree, there are some Russians who indeed do their civic duty both inside and abroad. But I would really like to see where is this force that we could speak with.

Good comparision about quality of opposition is Belarus. Lukashenka consciously mimicked Putin by urge to expell all opposition abroad, by repressions that were by no means less brutal than those in Russia. Yet, significant portion of society did not let itself being intimidated and demonstrated for months, enduring terrible repercussions. All in all regime held (chiefly due to Russian help), his enemies scattered aborad or rot in jail. However it all backfired. Not only world recognized new leader, but resistance to his rule become the norm among Belarusians abroad. Active and vibrant opposition structures, real politicians, now even true military forces- all of this hangs over his neck like Damocles' sword. And he can do nothing with this looming danger.

Now, why it was possible there but is not possible with Russians, to the point we barely see any larger actions on their own? They are theoretically much more numerous than Belarusians, but their opposition has much smaller impact and is almost invisible beyond small social bubbles of convinced liberals. I suppose answer may not be to many people's liking.

Edited October 25, 2022 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

About not puting everyone into one basket- fully agree, there some Russians who indeed do their civic duty both inside and abroad. But I would really like to see where is this force that we could speak with.

Good comparision about quality of opposition is Belarus. Lukashenka consciously mimicked Putin by wanting to expell all opposition abroad, by repressions that were by no means less brutal than those in Russia. Yet, significant portion of society did not let itself being intimidated and demonstrated for months, enduring terrible repercussions. All in all regime held (chiefly due to Russian help), his enemies scattered aborad or rot in jail. However it all backfired. Not only world recognized new leader, but resistance to his rule become the norm among Belarusians abroad. Active and vibrant opposition structures, real politicians, now even true military forces- all of this hangs over his neck like Damocles' sword. And he can do nothing with this looming danger.

Now, why it was possible there but is not possible with Russians, to the point we barely see any larger actions on their own? They are theoretically much more numerous than Belarusians, but their opposition has much smaller impact and is almost invisible beyond small social bubbles of convinced liberals. I suppose answer may not be to many people's liking.

Opposition was much stronger 8 years ago. What has happened since has been highly effective repression and civic demobilization. I think it's hard to parse why one society kicks back harder and longer...Ukraine being the best example even before this war started...but it's clear that civil capacity is as variable and as important as it is in the military sense. If I had to say, I would argue that while quite shambolic, Russia is still a multiethnic empire based on resource extraction with Russians as a dominant caste therein. That creates political cross currents that undercut forces struggling for representative government against corruption and authoritarianism.