How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

49 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

https://unn.ua/en/news/in-odessa-there-was-a-clash-between-ambulance-workers-and-employees-of-the-military-enlistment-office-the-shopping-center-reacted

 

Odesa and Transcarpatia oblast TCCs are most unceremonious. We now in the times when Soviet-legacy enlistment system already completely failed and showed own ineffectivity to supply army with replenishment, but new perspective system of recruitment is too weak and can work mostly in those brigades, who had exellent PR, showed own effectiveness and proper treatment to personnel. Not so much unit can boast of queuves for recruitment like 3rd assault brigade - and most of their recruites are young people 18-35 years, unlike 40+ age in most brigades.

Some other interseting information from Parliament Committee of Defense:

- In May 2024 in Ukraine was mobilized almost as many people as for six previous months. One serviceman, knowing inner "kitchen" of TCCs claimed in twitter in second half of 2023 mobilization was completely failed and gave to army less than 10 % of replenishment. And many of these 10 % are 45-59 y.o. man, with thikness, alcohoilism etc, because military medical committees almost never checked health and capabilities of mobilized.    

-  estimated required need of mobilization volumes are 100-110 thousands (but I think in 1,5-2 times more in real). Initially was planned to mobilize 450-500 thousands, especially if US hadn't given aid package

- since Janury 2024 were opened about 10000 criminal cases for unauthorized abandonment of military units and about 7000 criminal cases for desertion. For first case is developed a law, allowing to avoid a jail for first abandonment, if a serviceman turns back untill criminal case investifation will be completed. In many cases abandonments tied with serious psychological fatigue (and they didn't return from short time vacations), but also many typical idiotic Soviet military bureaucracy, when for example the serviceman is rehabilitating after wounding at the home, but hospiotal diodn't send a paper in time to his unit or HQ of this unit lost this paper and serviceman turned out in "abandonment". This is not the same as desertion, when serviceman abandoned by own will own military unit in combat zone.

[Haiduk]

Intersteng - Argentina can hand over to France for refurbishing and modernization five Super Etendart bombers, which France then will hands over to Ukraine. Echo of Folklands %) UK, prepare Hurriers !

https://www.slovoidilo.ua/2024/06/12/novyna/bezpeka/ukrayina-mozhe-otrymaty-arhentyny-partiyu-nadzvukovyx-bojovyx-litakiv-zmi

Edited June 12 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

This morning except endless heavy rain, we heared some explossions in Kyiv - one Kinzhal missile was intercepted.

Total Russians launched:

- 4 Kh-101/555 (all newest with two warheads, some had cluster warhead) - 4 intercepted. These misiles targeted Vasylkiv airfield south from Kyiv.

- 1 Iskander-M - no interception

- 1 Kinzhal - intercepted 

- 24 Shakheds - 24 intercepted, though falling of warheads caused a fire on some industrial objects in Kyiv and Sumy oblasts 

[Viko]

54 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Also, the Russians have successes in Zaporozhe: Robotyne (Orichiv axis) and Staromayorskie (Velyka Novosylka axis), both fought for very hard in the Summer 2023 offensive are back in Russian hands, the latter apparently with significant losses for the Ukrainians. It seems like under the cover of the spectacularly inept attack in the Kharkiv direction the Russians have managed to make gains  in Donbas and Zaporozhe.

 

 

The Russian offensive near Kharkov was completely useless and did not bring results, right?

 

[Haiduk]

Rare footage of Switchblade 600 work - Shark UAV tracked Russian Buk-M2 SAM and kamikadze drone of SSO hit the launcher

Another strike on Russian 31st AD division in Crimea throughout last two days. In this time S-400 and S-300 complexes and radars were struck near Belbek and Sevastopol. Reportedly two radars were destroyed, secondary detonations of SAM missiles were spotetd. Maybe more information will come soon. 

31st AD division consists of 12th and 18th SAM regiments armed with S-400/Pantsyr and 3rd radar regiment. Interesting, that in reports again spotetd S-300 in this division. Very likely to replenish S-400 losses, this division was forced to turn back to service own S-300PM stored since 2018, when they got S-400. 

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Viko said:

The Russian offensive near Kharkov was completely useless and did not bring results, right?

So, we lost two villages. The end of war?

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Viko said:

The Russian offensive near Kharkov was completely useless and did not bring results, right?

 

A gross, biased, and pointless mischaracterization of the previous discussion we had with you.  As to be expected.  You continue to show zero interest in being objective.

Nobody EVER said the Kharkiv offensive had no positive results for Russia.  Not a single person.  What was said, especially in the face of your hysterical reaction to it, is that the offensive failed to produce the results Russia was looking for before it stalled out.

Let me put it into simple terms for you.  If your goal is to walk 10km to raise money for a charity, with the money based on per KM walked, you will have a positive result if you only walk 1km.  However, if the charity was counting on you making it all 10km then your effort, even though positive, would be deemed a failure.  Would it not?

Steve

[Viko]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

So, we lost two villages. The end of war?

This is clear evidence of the superiority of Russians over Ukrainians. At a critical moment, the Russians were able to consolidate and increase the effectiveness of their armed forces. Over the past six months, Ukraine has been unable to recapture a single settlement. while Russia seizes one settlement after another. And Ukraine only promotes its loser generals for each new failure.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Or lay a bunch of smart mines.  So, as we saw a few pages back, the answer is to layer and heap defensive systems onto these existing platforms at accelerating costs...or remove the platform and disaggregate the capabilities across dispersed cheaper sub systems. I can see modern western militaries all going with option 1, as we will spend billions trying to keep these legacy platforms relevant, chasing a sunk cost fallacy.

The sucking and blowing will continue as well.  This war will get cherry picked to demonstrate "we need heavy" and all evidence (that we have been seeing for months) will be dismissed as "not yet validated and too vignette-y". Meanwhile any and all examples of heavy DF will be rolled out and loudly declared as "see, we told you they are not irrelevant!"

 

This gets back to the previous discussion about APS.  The people arguing for it are basically repeating the mistakes of the Maginot Line.  Specifically, relying upon a very expensive solution to a real problem that has known flaws in application, then not fully implementing even that because of costs and other issues. 

Carrying on with the Maginot Line analogy a bit more.  The APS proponents claim that APS has proven effectiveness.  Sure it has, but the same could have been said about the Maginot Line's component pieces.  Reinforced concrete shelters, thick encasements for big guns, clear fields of vision covered by encased machineguns, minefields, obstacles, etc. were all proven effective long before the Maginot Line was built.  The makers of the Maginot Line cited this effectiveness when they proposed the concept be turned into national policy.  However, do you know what else had long since been proven effective?  Going around a difficult defensive point instead of frontally assaulting it.  In the end that's what the Germans did.

Battleships at one point had a lot of effectiveness in the past to point to.  So did the long bow.  So did dinosaurs.  As the old saying goes, "past performance is not indicative of future results".

Steve

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Viko said:

This is clear evidence of the superiority of Russians over Ukrainians. At a critical moment, the Russians were able to consolidate and increase the effectiveness of their armed forces. Over the past six months, Ukraine has been unable to recapture a single settlement. while Russia seizes one settlement after another. And Ukraine only promotes its loser generals for each new failure.

So why is this guy still here?  I mean I get counter thinking and all but this is not “thinking”.  “Clear superiority”?!  A global power who outspent a weaker opponent by nearly 10 to 1 before the war just got pantsed and punked on the global stage.  They are coming up on 1/2 million casualties as they “invade” Ukraine 100 feet at a time.

Russia will run out of gas, is running out of gas and best of all will be next to useless militarily for a decade…all for another 8-10 percent of Ukraine, which they now cannot use because it will be contaminated by mines and UXOs for another century.

Yet, this guy demonstrates the height of “classy” by crowing Russian tactical successes at every turn in complete absence of the operational and strategic picture:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-11-2024

So I do have to ask what value this individual is providing? These are not valid points. This is bald face Russian propaganda.

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This gets back to the previous discussion about APS.  The people arguing for it are basically repeating the mistakes of the Maginot Line.  Specifically, relying upon a very expensive solution to a real problem that has known flaws in application, then not fully implementing even that because of costs and other issues. 

Carrying on with the Maginot Line analogy a bit more.  The APS proponents claim that APS has proven effectiveness.  Sure it has, but the same could have been said about the Maginot Line's component pieces.  Reinforced concrete shelters, thick encasements for big guns, clear fields of vision covered by encased machineguns, minefields, obstacles, etc. were all proven effective long before the Maginot Line was built.  The makers of the Maginot Line cited this effectiveness when they proposed the concept be turned into national policy.  However, do you know what else had long since been proven effective?  Going around a difficult defensive point instead of frontally assaulting it.  In the end that's what the Germans did.

Battleships at one point had a lot of effectiveness in the past to point to.  So did the long bow.  So did dinosaurs.  As the old saying goes, "past performance is not indicative of future results".

Steve

And all this ignores the real problem with heavy mech and armor - too slow, too expensive, too much logistics load and too visible.  Even if we run APS on stuff to make it more survivable to FPVs, this will not solve the much larger issues at play.

[omae2]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Odesa and Transcarpatia oblast TCCs are most unceremonious. We now in the times when Soviet-legacy enlistment system already completely failed and showed own ineffectivity to supply army with replenishment, but new perspective system of recruitment is too weak and can work mostly in those brigades, who had exellent PR, showed own effectiveness and proper treatment to personnel. Not so much unit can boast of queuves for recruitment like 3rd assault brigade - and most of their recruites are young people 18-35 years, unlike 40+ age in most brigades.

Some other interseting information from Parliament Committee of Defense:

- In May 2024 in Ukraine was mobilized almost as many people as for six previous months. One serviceman, knowing inner "kitchen" of TCCs claimed in twitter in second half of 2023 mobilization was completely failed and gave to army less than 10 % of replenishment. And many of these 10 % are 45-59 y.o. man, with thikness, alcohoilism etc, because military medical committees almost never checked health and capabilities of mobilized.    

-  estimated required need of mobilization volumes are 100-110 thousands (but I think in 1,5-2 times more in real). Initially was planned to mobilize 450-500 thousands, especially if US hadn't given aid package

- since Janury 2024 were opened about 10000 criminal cases for unauthorized abandonment of military units and about 7000 criminal cases for desertion. For first case is developed a law, allowing to avoid a jail for first abandonment, if a serviceman turns back untill criminal case investifation will be completed. In many cases abandonments tied with serious psychological fatigue (and they didn't return from short time vacations), but also many typical idiotic Soviet military bureaucracy, when for example the serviceman is rehabilitating after wounding at the home, but hospiotal diodn't send a paper in time to his unit or HQ of this unit lost this paper and serviceman turned out in "abandonment". This is not the same as desertion, when serviceman abandoned by own will own military unit in combat zone.

How does the russians keep supplying meat for their assaults? I mean even if i am skeptic about the more than 500k losses, the initial forces were 280k of the russians, 80k for wagner, 300k mobilized in 23 or 22 i cant recall. Around 660k body, plus some other units from different branch of the russian armed forces. This should be already running low on mans, yet contrary to my unsupported assumption they did not order mobilization back in March. So how they getting those idiots that sit on top of their vehicles and getting butchered every day?

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And all this ignores the real problem with heavy mech and armor - too slow, too expensive, too much logistics load and too visible.  Even if we run APS on stuff to make it more survivable to FPVs, this will not solve the much larger issues at play.

Yup.  It's like putting a small bandage on a large wound.  Better than nothing?  Maybe, but in the end it doesn't matter.

I've yet to see any proponent of heavy armor make any sort of financial, production, or logistics case in support of their arguments.  Not surprisingly either, because physics and economics are really difficult to argue against when they are so lopsided against heavy armor.

Steve

[billbindc]

24 minutes ago, Viko said:

This is clear evidence of the superiority of Russians over Ukrainians. At a critical moment, the Russians were able to consolidate and increase the effectiveness of their armed forces. Over the past six months, Ukraine has been unable to recapture a single settlement. while Russia seizes one settlement after another. And Ukraine only promotes its loser generals for each new failure.

"Bronze Age Sovok has entered the chat."

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So why is this guy still here?  I mean I get counter thinking and all but this is not “thinking”.  “Clear superiority”?!  A global power who outspent a weaker opponent by nearly 10 to 1 before the war just got pantsed and punked on the global stage.  They are coming up on 1/2 million casualties as they “invade” Ukraine 100 feet at a time.

Russia will run out of gas, is running out of gas and best of all will be next to useless militarily for a decade…all for another 8-10 percent of Ukraine, which they now cannot use because it will be contaminated by mines and UXOs for another century.

Yet, this guy demonstrates the height of “classy” by crowing Russian tactical successes at every turn in complete absence of the operational and strategic picture:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-11-2024

So I do have to ask what value this individual is providing? These are not valid points. This is bald face Russian propaganda.

Taken care of.

I warned Viko before and he, not surprisingly, hasn't changed.  There's value in people challenging assumptions, but there's no value in someone doing it with Russian talking points and debate style (i.e. whataboutisms).  I don't see any need to allow him to go down that path again.

No doubt he'll be back in another form.  I suspect this is Round 3 for him already.

Steve

[sburke]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Taken care of.

I warned Viko before and he, not surprisingly, hasn't changed.  There's value in people challenging assumptions, but there's no value in someone doing it with Russian talking points and debate style (i.e. whataboutisms).  I don't see any need to allow him to go down that path again.

No doubt he'll be back in another form.  I suspect this is Round 3 for him already.

Steve

next time can you just change his screen name to "troll"?  That might be fun for a few minutes at least.

[The_Capt]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Taken care of.

I warned Viko before and he, not surprisingly, hasn't changed.  There's value in people challenging assumptions, but there's no value in someone doing it with Russian talking points and debate style (i.e. whataboutisms).  I don't see any need to allow him to go down that path again.

No doubt he'll be back in another form.  I suspect this is Round 3 for him already.

Steve

What I can’t figure is why these guys keep coming back. I mean c’mon, we are at 5.6M views (which has to be a record) but this is a niche little forum - and who under 40 even knows what a forum is?  We are on the outer rim of social media hanging on “A Little Wargame Shop That Could”.  So why anyone would want to keep coming back to try and pull whatever this was just doesn’t make sense.  This is the weirdest Russian IO ever, or maybe just a member of the Russian 5th column doing what he thinks the motherland wants him too.

[omae2]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What I can’t figure is why these guys keep coming back. I mean c’mon, we are at 5.6M views (which has to be a record) but this is a niche little forum - and who under 40 even knows what a forum is?  We are on the outer rim of social media hanging on “A Little Wargame Shop That Could”.  So why anyone would want to keep coming back to try and pull whatever this was just doesn’t make sense.  This is the weirdest Russian IO ever, or maybe just a member of the Russian 5th column doing what he thinks the motherland wants him too.

I heard this rationalization before and i don't think its weird or dumb cause its effective. Most people don't care about war or how its fought those who do usually either in the business or a gamer. So they aiming them with propaganda, cause when they go within peoples that don't care about war in general they will look like semi decent information because of the base lexical knowledge and general awareness of the situation. So they can spread misinformation with fairly easy thru second hand mans. The rest of the folks is aimed with political bullshido thru social media, that doesn't aimed at supporting russia but to sew mistrust and diversion in the countries.

Which is fairly effective just look at the EU elections result.

[sburke]

29 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What I can’t figure is why these guys keep coming back. I mean c’mon, we are at 5.6M views (which has to be a record) but this is a niche little forum - and who under 40 even knows what a forum is?  We are on the outer rim of social media hanging on “A Little Wargame Shop That Could”.  So why anyone would want to keep coming back to try and pull whatever this was just doesn’t make sense.  This is the weirdest Russian IO ever, or maybe just a member of the Russian 5th column doing what he thinks the motherland wants him too.

I suspect somewhere in your illustrious career you pissed off some little know it all in class humiliating them and driving them to stalk you.  Yes, it is all your fault.  They aren't here as part of a Russian op, but rather just to get under your skin.  

[cesmonkey]

3 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Rybar claims:
https://t.me/rybar/60880
 

 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, omae2 said:

I heard this rationalization before and i don't think its weird or dumb cause its effective. Most people don't care about war or how its fought those who do usually either in the business or a gamer. So they aiming them with propaganda, cause when they go within peoples that don't care about war in general they will look like semi decent information because of the base lexical knowledge and general awareness of the situation. So they can spread misinformation with fairly easy thru second hand mans. The rest of the folks is aimed with political bullshido thru social media, that doesn't aimed at supporting russia but to sew mistrust and diversion in the countries.

Which is fairly effective just look at the EU elections result.

No idea on what happened in the EU elections (we have our own problems) but I am not sure how effective spreading disinformation around this tiny corner of the internet really is.  I mean if one was going to go this way here then at least know the audience.  People reading this thread do know more about the war and these fumbling low res attempts just come off as sad.  I really doubt anyone reading this thread is going to go “hey that Zeleban/Viko/whoever makes a good point, I think I will write my member of Congress”.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

I suspect somewhere in your illustrious career you pissed off some little know it all in class humiliating them and driving them to stalk you.  Yes, it is all your fault.  They aren't here as part of a Russian op, but rather just to get under your skin.  

But Dorosh left….ahhhh badumpity bump! Hey folks tip your waiter. 

[cesmonkey]

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukraine-the-latest/id1612424182?i=1000658793275

Really good episode of "Ukraine the Latest"

The single most interesting bit is a strong supposition that one of the reasons Russian S-300 and S-400 systems are dying like flies in Crimea is that the shorter range air defense systems that ought to be keeping them alive have been diverted to defend both military targets and oil refineries in Russia proper. It may be a case of where the Russians running out of one important system leads directly to more pressure on other important systems, and hopefully even bigger problems.

They also discuss the supply of Patriot systems to Ukraine. They point out, but not strongly enough that the U.S. doesn't have enough of these, AND WE NEED TO FIX THAT. The production capacity of these things needs to increase by at least a factor of five, with enough upfront investment to get the unit cost down to merely agonizing. 

[omae2]

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

No idea on what happened in the EU elections (we have our own problems) but I am not sure how effective spreading disinformation around this tiny corner of the internet really is.  I mean if one was going to go this way here then at least know the audience.  People reading this thread do know more about the war and these fumbling low res attempts just come off as sad.  I really doubt anyone reading this thread is going to go “hey that Zeleban/Viko/whoever makes a good point, I think I will write my member of Congress”.

Well i highly endorse that you look into European politics cause its fairly relevant in this conflict. Also just in general check upon how the Austrian secret service got screwed by the russians and useful idiots, and how the far right is getting more powerful all over europe. Most of those far right parties have ties to russia or act on russian interest with their stupidity. And i am a center right voter, i despise the leftist ideology but even for me this is concerning.