How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

I finally managed to watch the video skim through the paper. For me, the really amazing thing is that the training happend completely in simulation but was applicable to a variety of real world environments. I guess more relevant for our discussion are a few caveats to note: This is not the average commercial drone but a custom made one. It has a downsized GPU (NVIDIA Jetson TX2) and a stereo video camera. The latter is necessary to get 3D information of the environment (what I said about mono video not having this information), the former in order to make the computation fast enough. This probably does not work on a mobile phone (our infamous five year old snapdragon). And, of course, this is "only" the navigation part. No target detection and tracking and whatever else we may come up with that our drone might need.

That said, the video is 3 years old, the hardware doesn't cost an arm and a leg and it is likely there have been improvements over time.

Spent some more time surfing around YouTube - quite remarkable stuff in surveillance data collection.  It is made for YouTube consumption though:

Some of this is just downright creepy

 

 

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Substitute "patriots and local elites" for the loaded term "nationalists"  and you would be right; that is the way every conquest happens. Eliminate those who care about the idea of their nation and those who have ambitions to lead in their community and the rest will follow whoever is the new tyrant just to save their lives and households. Then in a couple of generations an effective genocide may happen because that "majority" will be happy to speak Russian and take orders from the new governor appointed from Moscow, and they will be Ukrainians no more. That is the Russian way since the Middle Ages - probably the first victims were the Ugric tribes in the North, then various Turkic groups which just started to settle down South-East of Moscow in XVI century, and then the Russians went on their merry way from Vladivostok to Królewiec doing exactly the same thing.

This is also exactly why some nations do not want to surrender and go on fighting - because that group of "nationalists" who care about more than the next meal is large enough to overcome the objections of the indifferent others.

And on a more personal note - that "argument" is in essence an appeal to surrender to tyranny, based on cowardice, pusillanimity and stupidity. It made me actually (slightly) nauseous to read something so nakedly depraved .

 

On the upside, I think our little forum has made just enough waves to get its own Russian IO op.  Ham fisted and about as elegant as one could expect, but we made the target list!

[ZellZeka]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

And on a more personal note - that "argument" is in essence an appeal to surrender to tyranny, based on cowardice, pusillanimity and stupidity. It made me actually (slightly) nauseous to read something so nakedly depraved

And I’m already sick of the constant Russian bombings. I think this is a stronger argument for nausea than reading posts on the forum safely.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, ZellZeka said:

And I’m already sick of the constant Russian bombings. I think this is a stronger argument for nausea than reading posts on the forum safely.

Given your shift in narrative I sincerely doubt you are anywhere near Russian bombs right now.  In fact I am getting the suspicion that you are located closer to where those bombs are coming from, not to.

[Yet]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Substitute "patriots and local elites" for the loaded term "nationalists"  and you would be right; that is the way every conquest happens. Eliminate those who care about the idea of their nation and those who have ambitions to lead in their community and the rest will follow whoever is the new tyrant just to save their lives and households. Then in a couple of generations an effective genocide may happen because that "majority" will be happy to speak Russian and take orders from the new governor appointed from Moscow, and they will be Ukrainians no more. That is the Russian way since the Middle Ages - probably the first victims were the Ugric tribes in the North, then various Turkic groups which just started to settle down South-East of Moscow in XVI century, and then the Russians went on their merry way from Vladivostok to Królewiec doing exactly the same thing.

This is also exactly why some nations do not want to surrender and go on fighting - because that group of "nationalists" who care about more than the next meal is large enough to overcome the objections of the indifferent others.

And on a more personal note - that "argument" is in essence an appeal to surrender to tyranny, based on cowardice, pusillanimity and stupidity. It made me actually (slightly) nauseous to read something so nakedly depraved .

 

 Then lets not dive into the history of say... the usa, or europe. Not much different anywhere else in a time when the crowd is setup to an idea by their leader. There are countries where the original inhabitants still live in reservates if they want to keep their culture alive. 

This behaviour is in our species, and is elevated by situation, opportunistic or zealot leaders, and restricted information sources (bubbles). 

Yea it s#cks, but it isnt unique to Russia or Russians and yes times can change, though it might take an awful long time. 

 

[ZellZeka]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Given your shift in narrative I sincerely doubt you are anywhere near Russian bombs right now.  In fact I am getting the suspicion that you are located closer to where those bombs are coming from, not to.

Do you seriously think that if a person supports Russia, he must live in Russia? In the USA, for example, there are a lot of fans of Putin and Russia.

[The_Capt]

Just now, ZellZeka said:

Do you seriously think that if a person supports Russia, he must live in Russia? In the USA, for example, there are a lot of fans of Putin and Russia.

Fair point.  Maybe you live in Belarus, Europe or even NA.  But what I think you are is a pro-Russian shill pretending to be a Ukrainian.  You have openly argued that Russian war crimes did not happen while promoting what is essentially Ukrainian surrender.  You have access to a lot of dubious social media feeds on Russian support in Ukraine.  Which will be followed by a Czech and Hungarian surrender as "Mighty Russia" swallows up most of Eastern Europe - you are literally reading directly from Putin's hymnal.

You cite no credible facts, your opinion is compromised, your credibility is completely blown. This makes you one of the worst IO operatives I have ever seen. I am wiling to bet you are a volunteer/amateur crusader who thought this would be a good idea - it was not.  But keep posting and we can all lay down bets as to when you get banned.  Or go silent until the heat cools off and come back for another pass in  a few weeks and drag this thing out. 

[ZellZeka]

Just now, The_Capt said:

Fair point.  Maybe you live in Belarus, Europe or even NA.  But what I think you are is a pro-Russian shill pretending to be a Ukrainian.  You have openly argued that Russian war crimes did not happen while promoting what is essentially Ukrainian surrender.  You have access to a lot of dubious social media feeds on Russian support in Ukraine.  Which will be followed by a Czech and Hungarian surrender as "Mighty Russia" swallows up most of Eastern Europe - you are literally reading directly from Putin's hymnal.

You cite no credible facts, your opinion is compromised, your credibility is completely blown. This makes you one of the worst IO operatives I have ever seen. I am wiling to bet you are a volunteer/amateur crusader who thought this would be a good idea - it was not.  But keep posting and we can all lay down bets as to when you get banned.  Or go silent until the heat cools off and come back for another pass in  a few weeks and drag this thing out. 

No, I’m just a Ukrainian very tired of this senseless war, just like this elderly resident of Volchansk, who tells the Ukrainian volunteers evacuating him that he does not consider the Russians his enemies. Unlike the Ukrainian government, which abandoned him. As in Bucha, the Ukrainian authorities made no attempt to evacuate civilians from the front-line city, forcing ordinary Ukrainians to suffer from the fighting.

 

[ZellZeka]

And this video shows the working methods of Ukrainian military commissars, who forcibly draft a random resident of Odessa into the army directly from the bus. The rest of the passengers are outraged by this and are trying to interfere with the Ukrainian military. 

What other evidence is needed that many Ukrainians are hostile to their own state?

Today, in many cities of Ukraine, checkpoints are installed that forcibly stop public transport and send the young guys in it to war. At the same time, people's discontent is growing. We are increasingly hearing talk about a popular uprising against the current Ukrainian government.

Edited May 27 by ZellZeka

[Baneman]

29 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

... In the USA, for example, there are a lot of fans of Putin and Russia.

True, but it's inexplicable.

12 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

No, I’m just a Ukrainian very tired of this senseless war, just like this elderly resident of Volchansk, who tells the Ukrainian volunteers evacuating him that he does not consider the Russians his enemies. 

Do you think surrendering because you're tired of the war will make life better ?

Also, unfortunately for the old gent, his opinion needs to be held by both sides to work. If the Russians consider him their enemy, his opinion won't be worth a hill of beans.

[ZellZeka]

8 minutes ago, Baneman said:

True, but it's inexplicable.

Do you think surrendering because you're tired of the war will make life better ?

Also, unfortunately for the old gent, his opinion needs to be held by both sides to work. If the Russians consider him their enemy, his opinion won't be worth a hill of beans.

Of course, I have already expressed my opinion before. If Ukraine capitulates, the mass deaths of Ukrainian civilians will stop. Yes, the Russians will deal with the most irreconcilable Ukrainians, but there are only a few of them. Most will simply be scared and will not resist. 

Russians do not consider him an enemy, they consider him as Russian as the average resident of Belogrod or Kursk.

Edited May 27 by ZellZeka

[keas66]

3 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Of course, I have already expressed my opinion before. If Ukraine capitulates, the mass deaths of Ukrainian civilians will stop. Yes, the Russians will deal with the most irreconcilable Ukrainians, but there are only a few of them. Most will simply be scared and will not resist. 

Russians do not consider him an enemy, they consider him as Russian as the average resident of Belogrod or Kursk.

Look up the definition of a quisling - If you really are a Ukrainian - thats you .  Either way you are blocked .

[ZellZeka]

Another typical example of the arbitrariness of military officials, from the pro-Ukrainian resource.

Employees of the Military Commissariat have been detaining the editor-in-chief of "Economic Truth" Dmytro Denkov for about a day and preventing him from contacting his relatives. "Ukrainian Pravda" writes that Denkov's phone and all means of communication were taken away. When his parents filed a search warrant with the police, it turned out that the man was in the Military Commissariat in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, Odesa region.

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Of course, I have already expressed my opinion before. If Ukraine capitulates, the mass deaths of Ukrainian civilians will stop. Yes, the Russians will deal with the most irreconcilable Ukrainians, but there are only a few of them. Most will simply be scared and will not resist. 

Russians do not consider him an enemy, they consider him as Russian as the average resident of Belogrod or Kursk.

What you are is a f--ing liar shilling for a murderous regime that is slaughtering civilians every day.  Can't believe you're not banned yet.  You don't have an opinion.  You have talking points so deplorable it would make Goebbels blush.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Of course, I have already expressed my opinion before. If Ukraine capitulates, the mass deaths of Ukrainian civilians will stop.

Now where have I heard that before?  Oh, I know... 2015 with Minsk 2.

2 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Yes, the Russians will deal with the most irreconcilable Ukrainians, but there are only a few of them. Most will simply be scared and will not resist.

So, you are in favor of enslavement and possible death instead vs. possible death fighting against enslavement?  The choice sucks, for sure, but pretending there's a third option where Ukraine can become a part of Russia and still be allowed freedom is nonsense.  Russians aren't free, so why would Ukrainians?

2 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Russians do not consider him an enemy, they consider him as Russian as the average resident of Belogrod or Kursk.

You are not paying enough attention to what Russia really is all about.  Your previous comments about Bucha prove that you are ignorant despite the war being right on your doorstep. 

Sure, it is true that Russia views any Ukrainian that is willing to give up their national identity in favor of Russia's is "Russian".  And they will receive the same treatment by Russia as any other Russian, which isn't very good.  I mean, are you OK Russian commissars rounding up previously Ukrainian men to join the hundreds of thousands of dead Russians in future wars of Imperialism?  Because if Russia has Ukraine under its thumb and gets into a conflict with NATO, that is exactly what will happen.

Steve

[ZellZeka]

2 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Look up the definition of a quisling - If you really are a Ukrainian - thats you .  Either way you are blocked .

Why should tens of thousands of people die and suffer because of the whims of a handful of marginalized people?

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, ZellZeka said:

Why should tens of thousands of people die and suffer because of the whims of a handful of marginalized people?

Tens of thousands of people are dying and suffering because that is what Russia thinks of the value of Ukrainian lives.

Lebensraum in reverse.

Seve

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, ZellZeka said:

Another typical example of the arbitrariness of military officials, from the pro-Ukrainian resource.

Employees of the Military Commissariat have been detaining the editor-in-chief of "Economic Truth" Dmytro Denkov for about a day and preventing him from contacting his relatives. "Ukrainian Pravda" writes that Denkov's phone and all means of communication were taken away. When his parents filed a search warrant with the police, it turned out that the man was in the Military Commissariat in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, Odesa region.

Well you have me convinced...I am sure Ukrainians can expect much greater freedoms under Russian rule, plenty evidence of this in occupied territories.

So now more to the point - so pass onto your master in Moscow that this war was a phenomenally dumb idea. It is going to put Putin's legacy right next to Nicolas II on the list of Russian Imperial blunders.  There is no winning solution for Russia here.  NATO and the West got Sweden, Finland, about a decade of NATO defence budgets, and Ukraine.  Russia got humiliation, a shattered ground force and about 7-8 percent more of Ukraine than they already had on 21 Feb 24. 

[danfrodo]

If this guy is in Ukraine then I hope his posts here cause him to be tracked by UKR intelligence and investigated.  I am quite sure he's an RU asset and is helping RU in ways other than this.  And I hope he gets what he deserves.  

But we all know that's not true.  He's a russian who's paid to do this sort of sick, twisted propaganda.

[ZellZeka]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now where have I heard that before?  Oh, I know... 2015 with Minsk 2.

But in 2015, Ukraine never capitulated, which caused continued bloodshed.

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So, you are in favor of enslavement and possible death instead vs. possible death fighting against enslavement?  The choice sucks, for sure, but pretending there's a third option where Ukraine can become a part of Russia and still be allowed freedom is nonsense.  Russians aren't free, so why would Ukrainians?

 

I just want to live and do not want to fight either for Ukraine or for Russia or for any other state on the globe.

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sure, it is true that Russia views any Ukrainian that is willing to give up their national identity in favor of Russia's is "Russian".  And they will receive the same treatment by Russia as any other Russian, which isn't very good.  I mean, are you OK Russian commissars rounding up previously Ukrainian men to join the hundreds of thousands of dead Russians in future wars of Imperialism?  Because if Russia has Ukraine under its thumb and gets into a conflict with NATO, that is exactly what will happen.

In my opinion, the main point of view on this forum is that having captured Ukraine, Putin will be forced to stop for a long time. I share the same point of view. Yes, there will be a lot of intimidation and manipulation on his part, but he will not dare to engage in direct confrontation with NATO.

[ZellZeka]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well you have me convinced...I am sure Ukrainians can expect much greater freedoms under Russian rule, plenty evidence of this in occupied territories.

There is no evidence that Russia is forcibly capturing conscripts from the streets of captured Ukrainian cities. And why does he need this? Thanks to the continued oil and gas trade, Putin has enough money to hire more and more soldiers from all over the world.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

But in 2015, Ukraine never capitulated, which caused continued bloodshed.

Yes, because Russia is a kind and gentle state that is totally fine with people living their own lives without fear.  Russia would never take former Ukrainian citizens and force them into a Third Chechen War to die in their tens of thousands so Muscovites can stay safe in their homes.

3 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

In my opinion, the main point of view on this forum is that having captured Ukraine, Putin will be forced to stop for a long time. I share the same point of view. Yes, there will be a lot of intimidation and manipulation on his part, but he will not dare to engage in direct confrontation with NATO.

Possibly, but what about the places within Russia or next to Russia that don't have NATO protection?  And what happens if Ukrainians decide they don't like being exploited by Russia and rise up?  Maybe even with your help because you realized you made a terrible mistake?

Look, I get it that this war is horrible.  I understands not wanting to die fighting the madman in Moscow's horrible vision for Ukraine.  But pretending that surrender makes all of this go away is beyond naive.  It is willfully ignorant. 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

There is no evidence that Russia is forcibly capturing conscripts from the streets of captured Ukrainian cities. And why does he need this? Thanks to the continued oil and gas trade, Putin has enough money to hire more and more soldiers from all over the world.

Russia rounded up all kinds of Ukrainians within the Donbas early in the war.  I remember the video of the father who was on the way to school to pick up his daughter being grabbed and beaten before being dragged off.  Lots and lots of evidence of this.

Russia also forced 10s of thousands of Russians into military service during the partial mobilization in 2022.  We all saw how they did it as it was widely documented at the time.

The likely reason that Ukrainians in the occupied areas aren't being rounded up (and there is some evidence of this, BTW) in large numbers is that they aren't there.  They either evacuated, were arrested, or were killed.

You are inventing reality to fit your vision instead of using your vision to see reality. 

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

22 minutes ago, ZellZeka said:

Why should tens of thousands of people die and suffer because of the whims of a handful of marginalized people?

I have a question for you after reading your posts. Are you posting all of this out of frustration that Ukraine is not getting enough support from the west? Believe me plenty of posters here wish the west would give more material support to Ukraine and lift restrictions on Ukraine being able to hit targets inside Russia.

Are you frustrated by something someone posted here? Are you being sarcastic in some of your posts in response? Sarcasm is kind of hard to detect through text on the internet so I'm not sure.

Or do you really just think that this war is not worth fighting period? Even if more support was given to Ukraine and more restrictions lifted on the AFU's rules of engagement.

And yes unfortunately you are right North America also has it's share of idiots who support Putin's narrative. This is why it is important for us to do what we can to counter these lies through open conversation and facts.

 

[ZellZeka]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Look, I get it that this war is horrible.  I understands not wanting to die fighting the madman in Moscow's horrible vision for Ukraine.  But pretending that surrender makes all of this go away is beyond naive.  It is willfully ignorant. 

in 2022, many Ukrainians were militant: “look how stupid and helpless these Russians are, soon we will be in Moscow.” However, everything turned out completely differently. The Russians have proven that, despite the sanctions, they are capable of rebuilding their economy on a war footing and mobilizing the population in time. What can I say, look at the purge started by Putin in the Ministry of Defense. He appointed an effective manager as minister instead of a stubborn martinet, and is actively getting rid of corrupt officials who have been corrupting this ministry for years.

On the other hand, we have Zelensky, who was unable to mobilize the population and the economy in time (instead, he only blames the Western allies, demanding more money). His defensive lines on the border turned out to be fake. In two days of offensive in the Kharkov region, the Russians advanced the same distance as the Ukrainians advanced in two months in the Zaporozhye region. And Ukrainian loser generals only receive promotions for their failures.