How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I know, my point is sanctions have little to no effect.

Surprisingly, just shipping this stuff to a border country and having a truck drive over is enough to circumvent most of it, a sudden 1000% increase in imports from some russian vassal has yet to raise an eyebrow with the people who designed this 'embargo'.

 

Well yes and no.  Second and third party countries are still selling but what is happening to the prices?  Russia is over a barrel right now supply wise is likely getting gutted much like they are by China and India on energy.  The aim of sanctions was as much about outpricing Russia, as it was about cutting them off. 

[Haiduk]

Now we have 28 killed in missile strike of 29th Dec in Kyiv. This is largest number of deaths in the city since 24th Feb. The works of ruins disassembling is continuing (on the photo).  

Reportedly employees covered in light shelter, but the missile or warhead of shot down missile hit almost in the shelter area, caused terrible consequences.

Beacme knowingly, in Smila, being struck by Kh-22, one of eight wounded died in the hospital.

This night Russia launched 90 Shakheds, 87 of them were shot down. Alas, L'viv region and city again passed most of UAVs. Russians didn't spare two Shakeds to hit the house-museum of UPA commander Roman Shukhevych, where he had own HQ and where he took last fight with NKVD. Other drone hit univercity building in Dubliany town (3 km NW from L'viv), where in own time Stepan Bandera was studying. 

In Odesa oblast Shaked explosion killed a teenager.  

Edited January 1 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Drone launches from UKR sea drones are next, is my 2024 prediction

Very interesting, long time ago there was discussed such possibility...whatever weapon this is (perhaps thermobaric?) by very nature of its unstable launching platform it cannot be precise.

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, Carolus said:

 

Happy New Year 2024, Gentlemen and Gentleladies.

 

Let's enjoy the news that Ukrainian sea drones apparently have missile launchers. 

 

This video is a part of "Ukrainska pravda" article about first operations of naval drones. Alas in didn't translted to English as whole, only as shortened atricles, so briefly:

1. First strike on Russian ships in the sea not far from Sevastopol should be conducten in the night from 16th on 17th September 2022. Five drones with 108 kg HE onbaoard each, despite large waves could approach to Sevastopol. Russian flagman frigade "Admiral Makarov" was spotted as main target. 70 km was left to the traget. But... Elon Musk turned off Starlink and UKR drones have lost control. Minister of digital transformation Fedorov (one of initiator of drone program), who was present in situation room tried to communicate with Musk, but he didn't want to listen. Attempts to convince him through US military channels also failed. Operation was foiled, Russian ships after this could launch missiles futher. By the way, by statistic, less then 50 % of Kalibrs were intercepted. Only two UKR drones could return to base. Other either sunk or self-exploded because of waves hit, being uncontroled. One of them was washed ashore near Sevastopol several days ago, so that was first unplanned ("thanks" to Musk) appearance or UKR naval drones on public.

2. Afer this incident with Musk, developers team researched returned drones and made many improves in construction. Gradually drones got three independent communication systems to avoid losing of control. 

So next attack was in the night from 28th to 29th of October. Four drones sailed to Sevastopol harbor, three prepared to attack Russian ships on the roadstead. Three drones attacked "Admiral Makarov" again, but only one could breack throug the waves and hit the ship in the stern part. Frigade lost speed in half and turned to harbor. In that time three other drones sneak to Streletskaya Bay, but was shelled by Russian coastal assets.

Fortunately almost near the entrance to the bay the minesweeper "Ivan Golubets" has stood and she got own 108 kh HE - explosion damaged trilling compartment. Other drones in this moment struck oil terminal. 

Damaged Russian frigade sailed to Streletskaya Bay too - Russian artillery from the coast mistakingly shelled the ship and frigade also returned fire.

In this khaos, two drones, which coouldn't approach to frigade in first attack followed them and could sneak to the bay. Russians turned on all own EW assets, so GPS signal was lost, reserve communication was partially supreswed too, but allowed to control drones by TV channel. Vice-admiral Neyizhpapa, who served long time in Sevastopol and knew all bays, personally sat in drone operator chair - first drone was directed on second frigade "Admiral Essen" but hit the point between her and ASW frigade "Ladnyi", slightly damaged both (in the artcile claimed the drone was directed between two ships, but likely unstable control caused dron missed and hit a pier between ships)  

3. After this attack, new drone "SeaBaby" was designed. Unlaike "Maliuk" with 108 kg of HE, It could carry 850 kg of HE (now it equipped also with thermobaric launchers). Also this drone got new comm system with 300 000 $ cost and was build from radio-transparent materials. Also unlike "Maliuk", developed in coperation with SBU and private companies, "SeaBaby" was designed and built exclisivley by own SBU engineers and IT team. Exactly "SeaBaby" drones hit Kerch bridge at the second time on 17th of July 2023.

The team, developed "Maliuk", after SBU decisiosn to develop own drone by own team signed agreement with GUR (Intelligence Service Directorate) and soon "Magura" drone project has appeared - these drones are under Budanov's hand. In September 2023 "Magura" in first time damaged Russian patrol ship "Sergey Kotov", though damages weren't heavy. Also claimed "SeaBaby" and "Magura" struck several other Russian ships and auxiliary vessels, but damages also weren't critical or weren't confirmed. 

4. In July 2023 Russia broken "grain agreenment" and became strike on UKR ports and elevators. Their patrol ships threatened to intercept any cargo vesels, sailing from UKR ports. Zelenskiy on Stavka meeting demanded to force Russian ships get away from western part of Black Sea. Was made a decision to show Russians theuir fleet will be vulnerable even in Novorossiysk, their second base. Cooperated operation was planned by Zaluzhnyi, Maliuk (SBU chief), Budanov (GUR chief), Neyizhpapa (Naval forces chief), Oleshchuk (Air Forces chief). So, ib the night on 4th August 2023 new  fastest drone "Mamai" went to sea. "Mamai" has lighter warhead than "SeaBaby" - 450 kg, but this is fastst drone, it can sail with a speed 110 km/h. On the way operators had many temptatins to hit tankers, carring Russian oil, but command prohibited atatck any civil vessel in neutral waters, even Russian. At last "Mamai" encountered LLS "Olenegorskiy gorniak" and successfully struckj it on the roadstead of Novorossiysk. In the article no mentions about other destroyed target - likely there were two drones, because off-shore oil terminal was hit too. On the next day other "Mamai" damaged Russian tanker "Sig", suppliying Russian miliyry. These attcks gradually forced Russians to minimaze own presence in western part of the sea and this allowed Ukraine to avoid new blocade. Reasons for Russia was not so military, but economical - after these atatcks insurance companies and freight companies have been rising own prices, so to calm situation and prices Russia was forced to withdraw. 

By the way western partners were very dissatisfied with these attcks on Novortossiysk and Kerch strait - UKR leadership got many suggestions "do not do this anymore" - Novorossiysk is a huge hub for Kazakhstan and "grey" Russian oil, which go to markets, bypassing sanctions as other brands or for delution of brands. With one hand we help Ukraine, with other hand we buy an oil in Russia, supporting their capability to wage a war. Damned real politic. Even recent scandal that Pentagon bought Russian oil only confirms this.

So, if you ask why Ukraine don't hit seriously Russiaon oil export infrastructre, adress this question to Washington.         

 

 

 

Edited January 1 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Second visual confirmed incident, when Russians could spot HIMARS after his launches and tracked it. Russian "Smerch" or "Tornado-S" has struck the area with cluster munitions, but result is unclear. Two rockets obviously hit empty field, only one partiallay hit tree-plant after which Russians in other video showed as "evidence" that something unclear is smoking in tree-plant

This happened in Donetsk oblast about iin 15 km behing frontline, 20 km SW from Bakhmut.

 

Edited January 1 by Haiduk

[Twisk]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

I know, my point is sanctions have little to no effect.

This is always tricky to figure out. Germany was able to increase its AFV production year over year up until the Soviets were literally in Germany despite the largest strategic bombing campaign in human history. But in all likelihood Germany would have had even better production numbers if they were left to their own devices.

Countries, when moving to a war footing, can often scrape out far more production than peacetime even if that production is hard. The question really isn't about production increasing but what cap has been placed by the sanctions. If Russia can make ~300 widgets per month now the removal of sanctions might mean that they could produce ~500 widgets per month. In either case its going to be an increase from the ~150 widgets being produced in 2020.

[Haiduk]

Situation near Robotyne - UKR troops froced to withdraw further to make contact line more short. Since most capable 47th and 116th brigades were moved to Avdiivka, rest of troops are either too exhausted or have many control and personnel issues, so can't effectively fight. Also soldiers form this dirction report about lack of artillery support and artillery shells - lilekely main priority for artillery supply now are Avdiivka and Krynky bridgehead. UKR troops also rarely can use armor for support and supply - Russian artillery, Lancets and FPVs search own victims and muddy fields it's a horror for pickup logistic, so not rarely positions can't be supplied with ammunition in time, which led to tragedies, like about week ago, when Russians executed two groups of UKR soldiers from 82nd air-assault and 117th mech.brigades - they surrendered because were out of ammo. Reportedly on this directions Russian often didn't take prisoners, because very angry due to own big losses. 

 

Describing of current situation there from UKR TG:

On Zaporizhzhia direction losses situation was significantly minimazed: from our side all active assaults are stopped, only if we really can advantageous to restore positions. Russians still use active assaults and what funny, when they all die, only then they stop attacks. In that time for us from 20 men group it's enough to have 2-3 KIA and 5-6 WIA to stop assault. 

 

 

[Haiduk]

After failed attempts to breack through to Berdychi village through Stepove, Russians now shifted attacks more NW to come to Berdychi directly from the north. They could push UKR troops from one of railway section. 

Vehicle losses count of Avdiivka battle since October. Even if we count only destroyed vehicles, Russians already lost full equipped tank division there + 4 motor-rifle regiments or more than 3 full-equipped motor-rifle brigades + two motor-rifle batatlions.

 

Edited January 1 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Ace-level dropping on Russian ATV near Kurdiumivka (southern Bakhmut front section)

 

[Haiduk]

Scandinavian countries are top

 

[Haiduk]

Result of Russian attacks of Kupiansk direction. 79 bodies on relatively small area.

I doubt this is Syn'kivka, as write the author, because this is a sector of 14th brigade

Another video of the same unit - they captured almost full squad of Russians in their trench

 

Edited January 1 by Haiduk

[Sojourner]

46 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ace-level dropping on Russian ATV near Kurdiumivka

Nah, for an Ace you need five. But, if you follow ice hockey, that's what's known as a hat-trick.

Still, damn good drop, especially on a moving target.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Kraft said:

I posted a video a while back of some OSINT guy who pixel counts the open storage fields for tanks. 

According to his rough estimate, and dismissing large numbers of vehicles that were in too poor shape, russia has about 1.5-2 years of tanks left to continue this burn just on its own, not counting production numbers that are in the 3 digits

For sure they still have a lot in reserve, but as they dig deeper into that pile they find worse equipment to restore in worse condition.  This means the effort to have something increases, the quality of what that something is decreases.

Put another way, Russia has already picked the tree of all the "low hanging fruit".

OSINT guys have focused heavily on tanks and SPGs, not as much of IFVs.  I am sure Russia has quite a lot left to drag out of fields and onto factory floors, but again the effort is going to go up and the quality down as this continues.

As for the estimates of time... well... I wonder if those estimates were based on Avdiivka scale losses.  As Haiduk just posted, those losses are enormous.

I expect Russia will get into yet another cycle where they've lost too many too quickly for there to be adequate numbers of replacements at the ready.

6 hours ago, Kraft said:

As for mobilisation, true greedy volunteers and convicts have been supplementing the graveyards but mobilisation is still active, just not in a big wave but trickling, which causes far less political instability (and 0 protests) than a million russians getting a letter at once.

There is no mobilization going on in Russia.  If you have a source to support this, I'd love to see it.

Anyway, my point is still the same.  Russia's manpower is not unlimited.  It also comes in over a period of time, not whenever the MOD wants it to.  The more wasteful Russia is with its manpower, the sooner it will have to make a tough decision of some sort.  I had hoped that would be 2023, now I hope it will be 2024.

Steve

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure they still have a lot in reserve, but as they dig deeper into that pile they find worse equipment to restore in worse condition.  This means the effort to have something increases, the quality of what that something is decreases.

Put another way, Russia has already picked the tree of all the "low hanging fruit".

And as soon as everything left in the bone yard has a problem with the same part that hasn't been in production for decades, the whole process grinds that much slower. I have visions of people standing around ancient manual everything production machinery trying desperately to understand the alcoholic mumblings of the seventy year olds that used to run it.

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Likely TOW from Bradley hit attacking Ruassian BMP and then finished it with 25 mm gun. Disembarked infantry tries to cover behind oppose side of vehicle, but the drone dropped grenades on them

 

The real significance is that the drone was obviously in communication with the Bradley, and is just waiting for the mobiks inside to get flushed and greet them with a grenade. As The Capt never tires of saying, this sad attempt at an attack was picked up before it got out of its assembly area. The only question was how much ammo the Ukrainians would have to use to make them good Russians

[kimbosbread]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The real significance is that the drone was obviously in communication with the Bradley, and is just waiting for the mobiks inside to get flushed and greet them with a grenade.

I think this will be the most under-appreciated aspect of autonomous weaponry: The ability to conduct flexible combinations of attacks autonomously.

No reason the grenade dropping drone cannot phone home and request a NLOS ATGM from a UGV (or a loitering munition with a heavier payload, or whatever) and then wait for the soldiers to huddle together and drop then.

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Likely TOW from Bradley hit attacking Ruassian BMP and then finished it with 25 mm gun. Disembarked infantry tries to cover behind oppose side of vehicle, but the drone dropped grenades on them

 

What was the BMP dragging behind it?

That driver sure was lucky to get around to the other side of the vehicle.  I assume heavily wounded, but still his odds of being dismembered by the 25mm rounds was very high.

I think you can see through the open driver's side hatch a round penetrating into the driver's compartment

Steve

[Butschi]

10 hours ago, Kraft said:

Sampled were almost 3000 pieces of individual components from missiles, drones and tanks.

This graphic is actually rather meaningless. First of all, source is "Ukrainian experts". Which experts? Experts on what? Let's assume there are real experts behind this. Then it's Ukrainian experts who have an interest in showing that Russia is supplied by Western companies. That doesn't invalidate the numbers but without any real proof, they are at least doubtful.

And then 3000 parts were looked at for this graphic. What kind of part? High end electronics or everything down to screws?

So, all we really know is that some people claim that given an unspecified selection of parts, most of those parts come from the US.

Anyway, there is really no way to prevent especially dual-use items from getting to Russia, not unless we impose a total embargo on Russia and only trade with countries who support and enforce this total embargo.

[Haiduk]

Heavy missile strike on Kyiv is ongoing. At the night I heard a drone sound over our house (but not similar to usual Shakhed) and then explosion in the air. Some number of drones were shot down in other districts.

Since 7:30 of morning already dozens of missiles are intercepted, including probably Kinzhals. Some explosions were enough close,so doors shaken after shock wave. Reportedly 16 Tu-95 launched Kh-101 missiles on different cities, but they suddenly, already being on the approach to Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr and other cities, turned back and flew on Kyiv. 

More "Belgorods" to f...g Russia! 

Edited January 2 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

 

In the meantime, debate continues about whether sanctions against Russian missile production are effective, Kyiv is under another major missile attack by the Russians.

According to preliminary data, 11 Kinzhal-type missiles were launched.

From my window I watch over Kiev a gigantic column of smoke from a huge fire

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Butschi said:

This graphic is actually rather meaningless. First of all, source is "Ukrainian experts". Which experts? Experts on what? Let's assume there are real experts behind this. Then it's Ukrainian experts who have an interest in showing that Russia is supplied by Western companies. That doesn't invalidate the numbers but without any real proof, they are at least doubtful.

And then 3000 parts were looked at for this graphic. What kind of part? High end electronics or everything down to screws?

So, all we really know is that some people claim that given an unspecified selection of parts, most of those parts come from the US.

Anyway, there is really no way to prevent especially dual-use items from getting to Russia, not unless we impose a total embargo on Russia and only trade with countries who support and enforce this total embargo.

I posted here enough info about researching of shot down Russian drones and missile parts, where showed western parts. And this is only small part of real volume of researching, which regularly is sending to western governments, but "real politic" and "this is private companies"

Ah,I forgot "western weapon too hard for studying by Ukrainians" (c), of course we haven't engineers and electronic part experts, because we are tumba-yumba tribe, just with white skin.

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

From my window I watch over Kiev a gigantic column of smoke from a huge fire

Damn,I don't see any smoke in eastern, northern and south-eastern directions, but a strong chemical smell in the air.

Reportedly in one of districts, close to center of the city a waster supply pipes are damaged

Edited January 2 by Haiduk

[JonS]

15 hours ago, Butschi said:

This graphic is actually rather meaningless.

It could be meaningful though, as part of trend analysis.

Is the proportion of US (and Western generally) parts increasing or decreasing? Based on this graphic; no idea. But that would be interesting to know, no?

Over what period were these parts counted - is it across the whole war, or just Feb and Mar 2022, or Nov and Dec 2023? Based on this graphic; no idea. But that would be interesting to know, no?

What is the total number of drones that these parts were counted from, and do we know the types/models of drones? If we know the types, was interpolation used to derive the counts (ie, "we never found the hyperdrive coupler from the Khinzal Mk.IIa that landed on Odessa at 2359hrs on the 29th of Feb, but we know those drones always have one and that bit comes from China, so we counted one to them."), or did they literally only count the parts they could find and which had explicit 'Made With Pride in [country]' marks stamped into them? Based on this graphic; no idea. But that would be interesting to know, no?

We know (or at least "know") what goes into the various standard drones the Russians are using, and there are pretty accurate tallies around of the numbers and types of drones fired at Ukraine, on a daily basis. Breaking that down by national supplier of parts on a daily basis, into a graph that looked something like this ...

 

... would be an interesting and actually useful way of assessing the effectiveness and impact of embargoes as it applies to drones. But as it stands, and as @Butschi noted, that graphic is actually rather meaningless.

Edit: to amplify something else @Butschi said - the counts themselves are kind of meaningless too. The US supplied 2,007 of the 3,000 parts found. I mean, that sounds pretty bad. But was that 2,000 pop rivets and 7 self-tapping screws? Based on this graphic; no idea. But that would be interesting to know, no?

Similarly, China only supplied 112 parts, which doesn't sound a lot ... unless that was that 66 engines and 46 guidance motherboards. Was it? Based on this graphic; no idea. But that would be interesting to know, no?

Edited January 2 by JonS

[Haiduk]

New batch of missiles arrived, next Kinzhal shot down close to Brovary town east from Kyiv. It was loud!

[Sgt Joch]

sanctions can be effective IF properly applied.

WW2 is not a good example, increased German production was a bit of an illusion. As Tooze pointed out, it was achieved in part by a reallocation of production, i.e. fighter AC and AFVs at the expense of other stuff and general lowering of quality, i.e. partly completed ACs booked as produced and general shoddiness. Speer "cooked the books" to make it appear as though production was increasing much faster than it actually was.

The current problem is that the sanctions against Russia are also a bit of an illusion. EU, US, Canada and a few other countries have sanctions in place, but most of the world, including major economies like China and India have no sanctions in place, so even though in theory U.S. technology cannot be supplied to Russia, there are many ways it can get there indirectly/illegally, no matter what parties are saying. For example, China has officially said it would "respect" U.S. sanctions, but you have increasing anecdotal evidence that Chinese made parts are appearing in Russian weapons.

Edited January 2 by Sgt Joch

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

I posted here enough info about researching of shot down Russian drones and missile parts, where showed western parts. And this is only small part of real volume of researching, which regularly is sending to western governments, but "real politic" and "this is private companies"

Ah,I forgot "western weapon too hard for studying by Ukrainians" (c), of course we haven't engineers and electronic part experts, because we are tumba-yumba tribe, just with white skin.

I neither doubt Ukrainian engineering skills nor that Western parts make up a significant part of Russian weapons production. In fact I did write that I think it is impossible to prevent this unless we stop trading with half the world - read: I'm very convinced this happens.

That just doesn't make the graphic any better. In fact, I should be doubly suspicious because of confirmation bias.

If it were unnamed "German experts" saying that out of an unspecified subset of parts 95% were of Russian origin, the same criticism would apply.