How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Damn, I've slept so soundly, that didn't hear anything. About 30 aerial targets were shot down over Kyiv and suburbs.

The same. I only found out about the attack in the morning when I woke up as usual

[Zeleban]

 

[Ales Dvorak]

@Haiduk

Hmmm... An information has apperaed UKR troops of 48th separate assault battalion seized the lighthouse on Tendra Spit. No any other confirmations yet. 

Anything new?

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Nice to see more video of this failed attack.  Radio chatter and translations a bonus!

There was some form of heavy direct fire from the right side.  .50cal?

Steve

[Zeleban]

 

[The_Capt]

16 hours ago, Probus said:

This is probably a stupid question but here goes:

Why aren't either side using vast amounts of smoke ammunition to fool these less expensive drones during operations?  I've not seen (hardly) any action where smoke rounds/dischargers were used.  They could even make a smoke round that hangs in the air just above the troops to bork drones.

Good question.  Frontage has been mentioned but UAS allow an opponent to gather a 360 view of the battlefield.  So smoke would need to cover not only front LOS but sides and rear as well.  And it would need a density to block at altitude as well.  My sense is that creating a screen of that density is very difficult and so neither side is wasting gun shots on it right now.

Edit:  And of course there is the dispersion issue.  Forces in this war a seeing far greater dispersion than we have seen before.  Greater distances between teams means a much higher smoke bill than a concentrated area.  

Edited December 29, 2023 by The_Capt

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Attack are very broad- they targeted something in Western Ukraine again. Damn, they weven hit building in Lviv.

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-strikes-injure-at-least-7-in-kyiv-casualties-reported-in-lviv-dnipro-kharkiv/

Also, in PL all news are about object that flew into our airspace and disappeared from the radar "in the morning hours", not far from Hrubieszów. They are searching for it now, fortunatelly no reports of casualties so far.

The take you aren't likely to read today is that this is a strategically useless waste of carefully husbanded Russian military resources that will harden the average Ukrainians will and make aid more likely because Putin has no other response available to redress his Black Sea losses.

There is already a reaction in DC. Putin's policy has always been to use escalate to gain advantage and he still doesn't realize that it hasn't worked for him in Ukraine. Mark this down as yet another idiotic waste of Russian military power. 

 

 

[The_Capt]

17 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Not just the US. I visited Toronto last summer and walked 5kms along Queen Street W after bar close late one night. People still out were overwhelmingly African/Haitian, like 8 to 1. Not menacing, and I do hope that remains the case, but a *lot* different from my last visit in 2012.

Sorry for OT.

Shocking….considering you were likely walking thru a Haitian neighborhood.

https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/9018-ct16_TOR_EthnicOrigin_Haitian.pdf

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

On LostArmor claimed this was Iskader-M strike. But explosion not so large

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The take you aren't likely to read today is that this is a strategically useless waste of carefully husbanded Russian military resources that will harden the average Ukrainians will and make aid more likely because Putin has no other response available to redress his Black Sea losses.

There is already a reaction in DC. Putin's policy has always been to use escalate to gain advantage and he still doesn't realize that it hasn't worked for him in Ukraine. Mark this down as yet another idiotic waste of Russian military power. 

 

 

It is freakin desperate terror strikes.  Russia has been hitting apartment buildings since the beginning of this war in some weird theory of putting pressure on the Ukrainian government (and if anyone wants to take a fun ride head on over to the Israel thread and we can talk about IDF “power targets”).

None of these are of any military value.  Russia has not been able to put together a coherent deep strike campaign in this war.  They almost came close last winter as they tried to suppress Ukrainian electricity but that did not pan out.  Unlike Ukraine, Russia has all the strategic manoeuvre room it wants in Ukraine itself.  But rather than hitting military infrastructure or something that matters, they just keep lobbing a shrinking supply of deep strike capability at random office buildings.  I am sure this all plays well at home, but is any Russian really buying it when the government declares another glorious destruction of everything that matters in Kyiv?

The biggest threat of these strikes is western fatigue - “another bunch of missiles…Marge, where is the remote?”

[billbindc]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Shocking….considering you were likely walking thru a Haitian neighborhood.

https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/9018-ct16_TOR_EthnicOrigin_Haitian.pdf

I cannot but imagine Canada is bettered by access to decent poul fri. 

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It is freakin desperate terror strikes.  Russia has been hitting apartment buildings since the beginning of this war in some weird theory of putting pressure on the Ukrainian government (and if anyone wants to take a fun ride head on over to the Israel thread and we can talk about IDF “power targets”).

None of these are of any military value.  Russia has not been able to put together a coherent deep strike campaign in this war.  They almost came close last winter as they tried to suppress Ukrainian electricity but that did not pan out.  Unlike Ukraine, Russia has all the strategic manoeuvre room it wants in Ukraine itself.  But rather than hitting military infrastructure or something that matters, they just keep lobbing a shrinking supply of deep strike capability at random office buildings.  I am sure this all plays well at home, but is any Russian really buying it when the government declares another glorious destruction of everything that matters in Kyiv?

The biggest threat of these strikes is western fatigue - “another bunch of missiles…Marge, where is the remote?”

Except it has the opposite effect in DC. The emails going to recalcitrant Republicans in the House this morning (from their own party in the Senate) are videos of the apartment strikes saying "See what happens when we don't act?". 

Edited December 29, 2023 by billbindc

[cesmonkey]

A depressing bit from Mashovets' update:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1529

Quote

In fact, Russian troops are now in the Tokmak direction trying to completely neutralize the results of the summer-autumn offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this direction. And, judging by the dynamics of the development of the situation at the tactical level, they are gradually succeeding.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Another set of footages of the same debacle.

Silent hunters.

Another UA solo 'tank raid'.

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Zeleban]

 

[The_Capt]

32 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Another set of footages of the same debacle.

 

Wow.  So what I saw:

-  lead tank with rollers got hit by a mine (front driver side) but that did not look like a standard HE mine.  Might have been a shaped charge mine with a delay fuse.  Basically a clever mine fuse that waits a second after being triggered by a roller so it goes off under the vehicle.  Saw a lot of orange/molten which looks more like a shaped charge.

- Rear vehicles got taken out by direct fire systems, likely ATGMs but hard to see.  Assuming ones in the middle also got picked off.  You can see some sort of heavy direct fire tracer flying past.

- Last BMP took a mine strike, pure and simple.  Section and crew bailed out.  UA dropped the sky on them.  First was arty/mortars, then a DPICM.  And then a freakin UAS dropping grenades to finish the job.

- Last finishing hit on lead tank was an ATGM. [edit: actually I think that may have been an FPV]

It actually looks like the RA may have tried smoke but those could also just be other burning vehicles.  UA UAS watched the whole damned thing and likely directed the indirect fire, which was incredibly accurate.  That entire RA unit, looks like a small combat team (Inf Pl with a couple tanks) was completely wiped out.  Maybe a few infantry crawled away but those vehicles are complete write-offs. UA ISR likely picked this attack up after it had been spotted well out by operational ISR.  I doubt that attack was stopped by more than a dozen troops on the UA side, maybe less.

Edited December 29, 2023 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Greaaat.  All I really wanted for Xmas was an Article 5 escalation….

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

The take you aren't likely to read today is that this is a strategically useless waste of carefully husbanded Russian military resources that will harden the average Ukrainians will and make aid more likely because Putin has no other response available to redress his Black Sea losses.

There is already a reaction in DC. Putin's policy has always been to use escalate to gain advantage and he still doesn't realize that it hasn't worked for him in Ukraine. Mark this down as yet another idiotic waste of Russian military power. 

I am not that sure tbf.

1. We don't know what military installations were targeted and hit- we will probably not know it for a long time as AFU keeps things in secret. There are rumours at least some airfields were hit (Starokonstantinov?).

2. Putin shows his resiliance and steadiness in face of global pressure. It didn't work for him 1,5 year ago when states were still in shock/anger, now it can bear some fruits.

3. This attack was very well planned and coordinated, mixing different types of missiles, working on various angles with defined targets and SEAD tasks.

4. It seems Kindzalhs, Ch-22, Iskanders and modified S-400 did mostly hit their marks, whatever they were:

https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1740689493953310921

5. Interesting snippet- it now seems Russian rocket, probably ch-101/102 did flew through NATO airspace for several minutes, penetrated for some 40kms and turned back into Ukrainian sky. Could be accident, but since it turned its back very fast (<3 mins, beyond decision loop) more people claim it was purposfull  testing of our defences and perhaps even marking new avenue for muscovite rockets hitting UA. Especially in connections with last "odd" GPS signal interference in PL several days ago (there were discussions it could be test of new radar or NATO jamming devices) :

https://www.dniprotoday.com/en/news/serious-gps-signal-interference-over-poland-no-one-knows-whats-going-on-1106

6. Are we sure we have broadly accurate data as to Russian missile stock that has left?

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Greaaat.  All I really wanted for Xmas was an Article 5 escalation….

Romanians have it much more often. And it didn't landed this time.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Good question.  Frontage has been mentioned but UAS allow an opponent to gather a 360 view of the battlefield.  So smoke would need to cover not only front LOS but sides and rear as well.  And it would need a density to block at altitude as well.  My sense is that creating a screen of that density is very difficult and so neither side is wasting gun shots on it right now.

Edit:  And of course there is the dispersion issue.  Forces in this war a seeing far greater dispersion than we have seen before.  Greater distances between teams means a much higher smoke bill than a concentrated area.  

There is also the logistics challenges.  Smoke is not produced in the sort of quantities as other munitions (or generators of some sort), therefore Ukraine would either need to procure a HUGE amount of new smoke capabilities or have some means of intelligently moving the supply around proactively so that it is in the right spot at the right time in the right density.

The logistics problems on their own limit smoke's use even if it was the perfect antidote.

Steve

[Zeleban]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Romanians have it much more often. And it didn't landed this time.

 

Great, now we have a new route for Russian missile attacks on Ukraine - from Polish territory. As I understand it, there will be no serious reaction to this incident from Poland.

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Zeleban said:

Great, now we have a new route for Russian missile attacks on Ukraine - from Polish territory. As I understand it, there will be no serious reaction to this incident from Poland.

What do you expect, attacking Moscow or Kaliningrad?

I doubt they made special avenue, it's just hypothesis. Most probably it was testing NATO reactions.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

What do you expect, attacking Moscow or Kaliningrad?

I doubt they made special avenue, it's just hypothesis. Most probably it was testing NATO reactions.

Correct.  Even if a Russian missile took out a Polish school bus loaded with children there would not likely be an Article 5 right away.  There would be unilateral diplomacy with Russia first.  Publicly Russia would likely deny everything, claiming it was Ukraine or space aliens, but in privately they might try to find some way to "get off the hook".  If it didn't, or the public outrage was too massive, then and only then would Poland privately assess Article 4 and 5 support within NATO before asking for it formally.  Then we'd see if Hungary would stay in the Alliance, because if it was the only holdout for action then I think things would get very interesting politically for Orban.

Regardless, I doubt there would be any direct military action taken right away.  Blockades and aggressive patrolling yes, strikes no.  Russia would then be on notice that if the next time it f'd up there'd be an immediate response, which would mean Russia likely taking much better care to not violate NATO territory again.

And this is assuming a pretty much "perfect" circumstance of significant loss of life and presence of evidence.  Anything short of that and the above process would stop before a formal request for Articles 4 or 5.

Steve

[Yet]

51 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Wow.  So what I saw:

-  lead tank with rollers got hit by a mine (front driver side).  Might have been a shaped charge mine with a delay fuse.  Basically a clever mine fuse that waits a second after being triggered by a roller so it goes off under the vehicle. 

aaaand there go our 'proven concepts' out of the window.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Yet

[Zeleban]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I doubt they made special avenue, it's just hypothesis. Most probably it was testing NATO reactions.

 

And NATO's reaction is... ?

I hope you understand that with these actions Russia is testing NATO's resolve. This will be important for deciding on aggression against some NATO countries. Nobody seems to have noticed the recent crash of the Shahed drone on Romanian territory, and now we have a violation of Polish airspace. I wonder why Polish air defense didn’t shoot down this missile? Perhaps they were afraid of offending Russia by shooting down one of its missiles

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Yet said:

aaaand there go our 'proven concepts' out of the window.

Not entirely.  So any minefield breach is a set of redundant systems.  In mechanical breaching plow tanks are supposed to lead.  Ploughs are much harder to take out by mines as they push the mines out of way.  Even if a mine has an anti-handling trip on it the explosion blows away from the plough and tank.  The only thing that could be a threat is a tilt rod with a delay (or MI delay).  Then the roller tank comes in behind the plough to prove the lane.  Followed by the bridgehead force to secure the far side.  If the plough tank gets taken out, the plan is to push on with the roller.  If they both get taken out...well denied breach.

Meanwhile an explosive breach can be be conducted with another roller to prove it.  One always does two lanes to try and secure one - but frankly in this environment that ratio may be closer to 4:1. 

Again the problem is less the minefield, believe it or not.  It is the fact that units/formations are forced into a very narrow and pre-planned defile.  Establish the conditions for a safe transit remains the core problem.  Even more so now with flocks of drones buzzing around.