How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

5 hours ago, Tux said:

o, in the last few months it seems to be the case that Ukraine have:

1. Successfully countered/neutralised the attack helicopter threat which caused some worrying tactical issues in the early stages of the offensive.

Would you be so kind to elaborate on this? Have you seen any new tactics or equipment by which the Ukrainians deal with RUS helicopters, or is this based only on the lower number of reports that KA 52s are causing trouble (and AFAIK it is lower nowadays)?

[kevinkin]

55 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Could you elaborate on the devil's advocate position?

I don't expect Putin to negotiate in good faith at all in this specific war. But negotiating is a tool to use when you have an advantage in general i.e. it's been used throughout history. It should never been taken out of the toolbox. It's part on maneuver warfare. At this point the lines of communication between the US China Russia and Ukraine are vague to the public watching the war unfold. Given the amount of money and ordinance the US has spent killing Russian troops, I would think there must be some open lines or else this could spin out of control. So "negotiating" is not a vulgar term. It is just a element in strategy. 

Edited September 4, 2023 by kevinkin

[billbindc]

51 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

I vehemently disagree.

Based on recent history, Russia will not negotiate in good faith, will renege on agreements and generally is not reliable. That's one top off the whole genocide, kidnapping children, destroying dams, threatening nuclear war, etc.

Could you elaborate on the devil's advocate position? How exactly are we supposed to normalize relations with an FSB-faction government? Nobody in Eastern Europe is going to take this other than anything a giant stab in the back, and I think we can agree it means nuclear proliferation will be entirely dead, not mostly.

There is no credible devil’s advocate position. As you note, Russia simply will not negotiate in good faith. Offering to come to the table now simply weakens support for arming Ukraine now and moves any starting point of future negotiations in Russia’s favor. It’s also an entirely false position to claim that Russia must be defeated root and branch in order for the war to effectively end. Kim Il Sung wasn’t rooted out of a bunker in Pyongyang and that war, despite strong support from Russia and China,  ended in an armed peace. A stalemate on something close to Ukrainian terms is a pretty likely option at this point and it will come when Russia has exhausted its ability to continue. 

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Would you be so kind to elaborate on this? Have you seen any new tactics or equipment by which the Ukrainians deal with RUS helicopters, or is this based only on the lower number of reports that KA 52s are causing trouble (and AFAIK it is lower nowadays)?

 

Quote

 

https://www.threads.net/@mx_ukraine/post/Cwxp2gFL51C

It wasn’t even the ZSU. Russian KA-52 just decided it didn’t wanna fight anymore and crashed in the Sea of Azov

 

I think this post, as well as Steves earlier comment about pushing basing back ever further, at least strongly hint at what is happening. Russia has suffered steady losses in a not very big fleet of Ka-52s the whole war, approximately half of the hundred odd they started the war with have been eliminated. Now ever increasing Ukrainian long range strike capability has pushed the remaining ones to bases in Southern Crimea, or maybe even some bit of Russia just to the other side of the Kerch bridge. So an ever smaller number of helicopters are are having fly an ever larger number miles/kilometers to attempt to fulfill their assigned missions. The inevitable result is stacking maintenance loses on top of combat losses as the remaining airframes and pilots just wear out. it is the most virtuous of circles as far as Ukraine is concerned.

[Tux]

41 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Would you be so kind to elaborate on this? Have you seen any new tactics or equipment by which the Ukrainians deal with RUS helicopters, or is this based only on the lower number of reports that KA 52s are causing trouble (and AFAIK it is lower nowadays)?

Of course.  As far as I can tell it’s been a combination of the factors California Dan just mentioned as well as some minor tactical tweaks to the composition of attacking forces (less vehicle-heavy, more artillery/infantry-led).  Even without knowing the details for sure, though, we no longer see footage and photos of Bradleys and Leopards taking ATGM hits from 10km away while crossing minefields and I am pretty sure we would do if the Russians had them.

[kevinkin]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

A stalemate on something close to Ukrainian terms is a pretty likely option at this point and it will come when Russia has exhausted its ability to continue. 

That will require negotiation since unconditional surrender is not on any table that I have read about. Terms have to be agreed on even if they are with the devil temporarily. Like I said, negotiation is part of the overall equation. I don't understand why we are not asking about how the US and Russia are communicating/deconflicting as this war goes on. It has never come up within all the reporting since last year. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

4 minutes ago, Tux said:

As far as I can tell it’s been a combination of the factors California Dan just mentioned as well as some minor tactical tweaks to the composition of attacking forces (less vehicle-heavy, more artillery/infantry-led).  

That is more like neutralising all anti-tank weapons, whether heliborne or not, by not showing up with the AFVs. But OK, I see now what you meant.

[kevinkin]

22 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There is no credible devil’s advocate position.

In peer review, there is always what is called a devil’s advocate even if the candidate has perfect grades, performed excellent lab work, and written a flawless thesis. It's a major part of getting to the truth. Then everyone goes out for beer and wings. 

[Tux]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

But I would like to know what sentence or two of mine attacked you?

I am just going to walk past without getting involved in this but, should I drop any thing over my shoulder as I go maybe it can go towards drawing a line under this whole sub-thread?

...

On 8/19/2023 at 5:30 AM, kevinkin said:

This is the thinking of a shallow wargame developer who never put themselves in harms way. 

Whoops!

On 8/19/2023 at 5:49 AM, kevinkin said:

You are a tactical thinker, I think strategically. That's why you love videos of bodies being blow up and I don't. 

Clumsy me!

[Tux]

13 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That is more like neutralising all anti-tank weapons, whether heliborne or not, by not showing up with the AFVs. But OK, I see now what you meant.

For sure, it's exactly that.  I was just trying to think of 'features' of the Ukrainian offensive, or at least the narrative around it, which have stood out and then disappeared.  The part played by Ka-52s was one of those.

[kevinkin]

3 minutes ago, Tux said:

Clumsy me!

Let the truth be told. And I did apologize if those words hurt feelings. But frankly, in my neck of the woods, they are harmless. I know we don't want this to devolve into mud slinging. But we do deserve the ability to defend our positions even with colorful language.  I didn't start this issue. I voiced an opinion to invoke critical thinking. To called it nonsense out of hand is nonsense in itself. 

[Tux]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

It’s Chernobyl - no one is going to deliver bad news to the boss, who just blew a plane load of opponents out of the sky, so they try to ignore it.  The human mind is fantastic at rationalization and that is what we are likely seeing here.  There was no mass panic last Fall (correct me if I am wrong), it was written off as an “operational adjustment” of the lines.  There wasn’t even a panic the previous spring when the entire Northern front collapsed.  This is not likely stolid Russian steel will, it is simply denial.

My sense is Russian forces could be dog paddling in the Azov Sea and Russian senior military and political leadership would frame it as a “reverse amphibious assault” to draw the UA into a trap.  This is not good news in reality because it is signalling that Russia is not negotiating with its own defeat.  There appears to simply be no outcome in their reality where they do not win.  This really means there will likely need to be a complete collapse of the current political power system for this war to end - of course many were saying this already.  The tricky part is quickly inserting a new political system into place to replace the old one before things unravel.  It has happened before in the 90s, although was pretty dicey at times.  

In response to the above and the half-dozen other contributions around this same topic: Absolutely, I agree that Russia do not behave in a way that we would consider rational but I don't agree that we saw no signs of panic at other stages of the war.  It was probably unhelpful of me to use the word "panic" but I didn't mean to imply that I expect to see people running, screaming through the streets of Moscow or bursting into tears on national TV.  What we have seen though is that, when Russia thought their northern front was about to collapse in Spring 2022 they proactively retreated and wrote it off, as you say, as an "operational adjustment" or even a bloody "show of good faith".  Russia then kicked off a major (though partial) mobilisation effort last September, when it was all going tits up around Kharkiv and Kherson.  They also implemented snap "referenda" in the occupied oblasts and even formally "annexed" them into the Russian Federation.  Of course the latter was a bluff and hasn't had any lasting impact but that's the point: it was a desperate attempt to make Ukraine and the West second-guess how Russia would respond if Kherson was taken and a hope-against-hope that Ukraine would consequently halt their advance.  It was always going to fall flat but they tried it anyway.  I would then also argue that the whole Nova Kakhovka dam fiasco (whether it was accidentally blown or whatever) was probably a response to the threat Ukraine was posing to Russia's probably wafer-thin western flank.

The fact is we haven't seen anything like the above more recently.  Ukraine seem to have been gradually, painfully fixing themselves up, countering Russian threats and expanding the domains within which they can offer their own.  They now even seem to be making ominous (from a Russian point of view) operational progress towards Tokmak and yet for months now Russia has been doing nothing.  I just find that really odd.

 

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This is not good news in reality because it is signalling that Russia is not negotiating with its own defeat.

This is exactly the shadow that's been lurking in my thoughts for a few weeks and exactly how I'd have phrased my concerns if I wouldn't have felt like an imposter for doing so.  In fact I think I addressed this a few days ago as well, in terms of asking whether theory says there's anything that can be done to help them get moving on this.

Because it looks to me awfully like, somehow, Russia are negotiating with their own defeat even less now than they were earlier in the war.

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, Carolus said:

I think the perspective is really new for many of us (and people in general).

Most people here on the forum have read historical accounts or research about wars, and thus we enjoyed the hindsight perspective.

We read that X retreated from Y in the year so and so, but usually we don't know what that meant in detail from day to day or hour to hour for the involved units (unless someone really dug into the research).

Here we actually see hour to hour updates. It's a train wreck in slow motion. You can infer certain things, liek that it will never reach the station in time, buy who knows what it looks like when the dust settles.

For sure, Carolus.  I've read military history my whole life from a detached perspective.  Ukraine war I really feel, I am totally not detached.  It makes me sick -- emotionally, spiritually, every way.  Each UKR death is like helplessly watching some serial mass murderer continually killing people and being helpless to stop him -- and that's exactly what is happening.

On the devil's advocate stuff in some earlier posts today:  Some guy, friend of my daughter (ex friend more accurately), stayed w us for a few weeks recently while he was in town doing clinicals for his phy therapy degree program.  I was watching Davydov video and he said "well, there's two sides to this conflict", some dumb view he probably got from listening to Joe Rogan or some other garbage podcast.  I said "yes, the serial mass murder-er side and the serial mass murder-ee side".  This is the most black & white major war since WW2.  No war is black & white completely but this is as close as it comes.

Would anyone say "oh, well, the serial mass murder probably had some good reasons for killing those 12 women, we should think about his needs?"  F no!

Edited September 4, 2023 by danfrodo

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, Teufel said:

As mentioned several times before and discussed as important indicator of declining conditions for Russians. More surrenders along the contact line, this time in Klishchiivka. Which serves as update of what’s going on in Bakhmut direction.

 

Alas, this is Ukrainin POWs from 77th air-assault brigade. No details how it happened. Some unverified talks I've read, one group advanced too far along narrow forest between Klishchiivka and Bakhmut and were surprisingly counter-attacked there and probably encircled. Some could broke throough, but part was captured. Also no info when it happened. 

UKR TG "Sniper speaks" also told Russians could push back our positions on 500 m on nothern flank of Bakhmut, but didn't clarify were exsctly. Maybe near Berkhivka, when these "swing" is usual

Edited September 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

deleted

Edited September 4, 2023 by danfrodo

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Alas, this is Ukrainin POWs from 77th air-assault brigade. No details how it happened. Some unverified talks I've read, one group advanced too far along narrow forest between Klishchiivka and Bakhmut and were surprisingly counter-attacked there and probably encircled. Some could broke throough, but part was captured. Also no info where it happened. 

UKR TG "Sniper speaks" also told Russians could push back our positions on 500 m on nothern flank of Bakhmut, but didn't clarify were exsctly. Maybe near Berkhivka, when these "swing" is usual

So these are actually Ukrainian soldiers forced to surrender due to being surrounded?   That's absolutely heart breaking news.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Tux said:

In response to the above and the half-dozen other contributions around this same topic: Absolutely, I agree that Russia do not behave in a way that we would consider rational but I don't agree that we saw no signs of panic at other stages of the war.  It was probably unhelpful of me to use the word "panic" but I didn't mean to imply that I expect to see people running, screaming through the streets of Moscow or bursting into tears on national TV.  What we have seen though is that, when Russia thought their northern front was about to collapse in Spring 2022 they proactively retreated and wrote it off, as you say, as an "operational adjustment" or even a bloody "show of good faith".  Russia then kicked off a major (though partial) mobilisation effort last September, when it was all going tits up around Kharkiv and Kherson.  They also implemented snap "referenda" in the occupied oblasts and even formally "annexed" them into the Russian Federation.  Of course the latter was a bluff and hasn't had any lasting impact but that's the point: it was a desperate attempt to make Ukraine and the West second-guess how Russia would respond if Kherson was taken and a hope-against-hope that Ukraine would consequently halt their advance.  It was always going to fall flat but they tried it anyway.  I would then also argue that the whole Nova Kakhovka dam fiasco (whether it was accidentally blown or whatever) was probably a response to the threat Ukraine was posing to Russia's probably wafer-thin western flank.

The fact is we haven't seen anything like the above more recently.  Ukraine seem to have been gradually, painfully fixing themselves up, countering Russian threats and expanding the domains within which they can offer their own.  They now even seem to be making ominous (from a Russian point of view) operational progress towards Tokmak and yet for months now Russia has been doing nothing.  I just find that really odd.

 

This is exactly the shadow that's been lurking in my thoughts for a few weeks and exactly how I'd have phrased my concerns if I wouldn't have felt like an imposter for doing so.  In fact I think I addressed this a few days ago as well, in terms of asking whether theory says there's anything that can be done to help them get moving on this.

Because it looks to me awfully like, somehow, Russia are negotiating with their own defeat even less now than they were earlier in the war.

The Russian system has calcified almost to the point of complete disfunction, it can just barely respond to stimulus. When it does respond it is almost always by doing a little more, or a little less of what it was already doing. Its very last hint of a new idea was to invade to Ukraine as the crowing achievement of the Czar's reign. Since that failed in nineteen separate ways all it has managed to do is twitch reflexively. It just keeps fighting the catastrophic fire it has started by shoveling bodies on to it slightly faster, or lately slightly slower, than the fire can consume them. When someone has so much as an idea about how to shovel bodies more efficiently, they go out a fifth floor window as threat to the glorious Czar or his reputation. This isn't a dinosaur, walnut brain sized level of reflexive response, it is a JELLYFISH level of reflexive response. I have not the slightest idea how to negotiate with a jellyfish.

The SBU needs to get to General Popov and make him an offer, his command is literally pleading with them to come save them. This is an insult that neither the Czar or his ministers will swallow.

[L0ckAndL0ad]

On 8/31/2023 at 5:05 PM, Battlefront.com said:

I really don't know either!  What we do know is that the US keeps sending them and that implies Ukraine is using them.  Since we aren't seeing Russian aircraft dropping out of the skies from AIM-9 (as far as we can tell), it is likely Ukraine is using them against unmanned threats.  We do know that Ukraine's fighter aircraft are responsible for downing many of the slower moving drones, but there's not been any clear reporting (as far as I know) of what they are using to make that happen.  AIM-9 seems logical for this role, but it could also be ground based systems are using AIM-9 against unmanned targets as well.

My gut feeling says that they're sent for use with NASAMS. Not sure if they're able to lock onto drones, because their IR signature is very different from jet engine exhaust. Point defense against incoming missiles (assisted by slaving from radar/datalink) is more likely usage I would assume.

Whatever use they find, I hope it's helpful. 

Quote

I don't know.  What I do know is that every time I think of this I also think of you, your family, and those like you who would choose to end this insane war tomorrow if you had the ability to do so.

I suspect that if all the bridges into Ukraine are fully severed, enough food will be moved in by ships to keep people from starving.  Food quality and variety will suffer, so I don't expect it will be pleasant for you. 

Helping things, at least a little, will be an exodus of people FINALLY understanding that Crimea is effectively a warzone.  The first to go will likely be the ones with the least ties to Crimea, starting with the tourists and more recent immigrants from the mainland.  Then it will extend to those who have a lot of money and/or solid ties (family/friends) that can help them relocate.  The remaining people (the majority of the population) will be stuck.

The prices are already rising for some things, bit by bit. Moscovites often rant that Moscow prices are lower than here. Fuel is the most noticable one, and it WILL drive the rest as a result at the minimum. 

I think that quite a lot of vatniks will stay, even those that are not originally from here, unless being "evacuated" by some order or decree. Because they're not very good at thinking on their own. Unless it's raining shells literally right on their heads. At which point it's no longer needed, I suppose.

Quote

P.S.  thanks for the observations about the tourist season.  It says a lot about the general Russian population's attitude that this war doesn't concern them.

I think that is kremlin's intention, isn't it? They've been brainwashing people into passiveness for the past 20 years. Nothing different now, except when you suddenly need manpower on the frontlines. Ooops.

On the other hand, I know exactly what it's like to feel powerless and small when facing this.. leviathan. 

On 8/31/2023 at 2:38 PM, Beleg85 said:

Unfortunatelly, that will play into Kremlin narrative, both inhabitants and tourists (I can easily imagine scenario when tourists are purposefully kept in cut-off Peninsula, in order to look it more dramatic). Crimea is by far only part of imagined Russian World where Kremlin mythology actually overlaps with apparent expectations of Russian society as a whole. They may not give a single kopieyka for people in Donbas, Rostov or Kaliningrad, but real danger for their "Russian California" may trigger more energetic response, perhaps in the form of additional mobilization efforts.

The big question is if Putin would like to play this game of activising broader support, though. As we all saw, it can be dangerous for him.

Hmm, yes, indeed. Really not sure about russians actually caring about anything happening to Crimea, but it doesn't mean it won't be used as an excuse to rally/mobilize actively again. It would be stupid (as pretty much all they do), but not unexpected.

On 8/31/2023 at 10:54 PM, Centurian52 said:

That's a thought that had occurred to me, and which I remember being raised by other people a few hundred pages ago. I am hoping and expecting that the Ukrainians will be able to cut off Crimea for the obvious military utility in doing so. But there is no doubt that it will make life very hard for you and everyone else who lives there.

My hope is that the Russians will run out of ammo before civilians start running out of food. For this reason the Ukrainians probably shouldn't just sit and wait for the Russians to starve once Crimea is cut off, but actively put pressure on the Russians to force them to expend lives and ammo faster than they can be replenished (some supplies and reinforcements should still be able to come in by sea even if all land routes are cut, so active pressure will probably be necessary anyway).

Whatever happens, I hope you are able to stockpile enough food to make it through.

True, but what kinds of ammo? If they dig into urban areas among civilian population with just AK-74s and RPG-7s (for the "last stand" type of situation), it would be hard to get them out without leveling the whole place altogether.

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

Not sure if they're able to lock onto drones, because their IR signature is very different from jet engine exhaust.

There were videos MiG-29 shoot down Orlans with R-73, close analog of AIM-9, so IR missiles quite suitable for this purpose. 

Edited September 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

20 hours ago, dan/california said:

There is suddenly a bunch of Baryaktar videos floating around the web. Is this because Russian air defenses are stretched so thin they can operate more freely? Or the AFU just decided to put some up?

People "in theme" hinted Bayraktars work always. Mostly for recon and targeting, but if it possile for strike missiosns too. Even more - there are special stike drone groups exist, subordinated to Tactical Groupings, which work in their comamnders interests, but their activity is completely not puplic. 

About both videos of Bayraktars strike - they were geolocated on Kinburn spit

Edited September 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Tux]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

That will require negotiation since unconditional surrender is not on any table that I have read about. Terms have to be agreed on even if they are with the devil temporarily. Like I said, negotiation is part of the overall equation. I don't understand why we are not asking about how the US and Russia are communicating/deconflicting as this war goes on. It has never come up within all the reporting since last year. 

There was the BBC article from yesterday which noted the breakdown in diplomatic relations over the last decade or so and highlighted how utterly futile it became to try and talk to Russian diplomats from December 2021 onwards.

Generally I am sure there are some channels open, somewhere.  Let's bear in mind though that it's how Ukraine and Russia are communicating which matters more in this war.

Edited September 4, 2023 by Tux

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Tux said:

There was the BBC article from yesterday which noted the breakdown in diplomatic relations over the last decade or so and highlighted how utterly futile it became to try and talk to Russian diplomats from December 2021 onwards.

Generally I am sure there are some channels open, somewhere.  Let's bear in mind though that it's how Ukraine and Russia are communicating which matters more in this war.

There are clearly deconfliction channels open as per below and leaders like Modi and Erdogan act as channels too. Most of the premise of the argument being directed at you are risibly bad. 

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3330335/readout-of-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iiis-phone-call-with-russian-min/#:~:text=Pat Ryder%3A,airspace over the Black Sea.

[Haiduk]

New brigade was created in Air-Assault Command structure. This is 148th artillery brigade. It got M777 howitzers

 

 

Edited September 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Tux]

19 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Russian system has calcified almost to the point of complete disfunction, it can just barely respond to stimulus. When it does respond it is almost always by doing a little more, or a little less of what it was already doing. Its very last hint of a new idea was to invade to Ukraine as the crowing achievement of the Czar's reign. Since that failed in nineteen separate ways all it has managed to do is twitch reflexively. It just keeps fighting the catastrophic fire it has started by shoveling bodies on to it slightly faster, or lately slightly slower, than the fire can consume them. When someone has so much as an idea about how to shovel bodies more efficiently, they go out a fifth floor window as threat to the glorious Czar or his reputation. This isn't a dinosaur, walnut brain sized level of reflexive response, it is a JELLYFISH level of reflexive response. I have not the slightest idea how to negotiate with a jellyfish.

The SBU needs to get to General Popov and make him an offer, his command is literally pleading with them to come save them. This is an insult that neither the Czar or his ministers will swallow.

Hmmm.  I think the last couple of months are tea leaves.  Dark, soggy, sinister tea leaves.  Unfortunately, as Centurian mentioned, we probably won't know what they foretold until after the fact.

[kimbosbread]

@kevinkin I want to know specifically what the Devil's Advocate negotiating position you are talking about is. Please tell me what improved outcome one could hope to acheive- or alternatively, what worse outcome one could hope to avoid- negotiating with Putin. What's the deal you are thinking of in your head?

For everyone else, I've already given my devil's advocate position, which I think Western Europe would have taken in a heartbeat earlier in this conflict, but now perhaps not: Russia, in exchange for retreating to its borders takes all refugees + asylum seekers from Europe.