How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure Prig does what the Kremlin says.  This is why nobody has ever bought the "plausible deniability" of Prig's murderers.  It's a state run op in all but name.

That said, Prig's in charge of real mercenaries.  They legally do not have to do what Putin tells them to do.  And that still matters because the regime is still trying to maintain some degree of "rule of law".  So if Prig says to Putin, "we're spent here, but we'll be happy to kill people in Sudan" then Putin is unlikely to say no.  Plus, I'm sure Putin gets a cut of whatever Prig's murderers steal in Africa, so there is that too.

Steve

I pretty strongly disagree with this. Russia doesn't have rule of law. It has what some like to call a rule-by-law state. What that means is that the law exists on the books but it is only selectively enforced. Anyone with krysha can ignore the law at will and at the upper levels competition virtually requires that one does. Conversely, the power structure...meaning Putin...can at any time decide to activate the law against those he wishes to destroy or punish. This is not an esoteric subject within Russia. Everybody knows it and must adhere to the system. Wagner's slightly nebulous status heretofore was not to fool Russians...it was aimed at providing convenient myopia to decision makers in the West.

In the context of Prigozhin, the situation is the reverse of your description above. The mercenaries under Prigozhin's wing can push back against  him...precisely because they all work for Putin and Prigozhin's perceived maneuvering isn't arm twisting Putin...it is to curry favor with him by balancing out the war primed influence of the MoD. Make no mistake...in every sense that matters, Putin is the Russian state and the Russian state owns Wagner. The day Prigozhin forgets that is the last day you will hear from him.

 

[Kinophile]

30 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Feeling better every day that my argument that the Russian war has more and more been fought to control the Kremlin instead of to take Ukraine.

Im really curious if it has became that, rather than started out as that. He was pretty dang secure, as much as any autocratic really can be. 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Ok let’s play “How Many Reasons Why Russia May Open Up Negotiations That Are Not An Immediate Sign Of Defeat” - all the College Boys chime in.  I will start:

- Shifting the strategic narrative/reframe the war in an attempt to demonstrate that they are the reasonable ones and start down a road to victimology that may appeal to certain political parties in the west who have their heads in warm dark places while they listen to “experts” with big mics, empty heads and a serious lust for more money and power.

- To create uncertainty in the European alliance and NATO as some nations just want this to be over and renormalize. 

- A ploy to pull China into this in some sort diplomatic tag team. China enters the side of “Putin the Reasonable” and leverages it towards a win for them both.

- The Russians simply stall for time in a hope to slow down the UA in a hope for a battlefield reverse.

- To play up to a domestic audience, with never any real intention of ceasing the conflict.

- Because Putin is finished and we wind up negotiating with a bunch of separate goons, none of whom actually represent the Russian people.

- Putin is not finished but wants us to believe it and over reach.  Link to playing for time and dumber political machines moving into power.

- Random irrational objectives that we can only guess at.

Now just for you - go look up Dunning-Kruger and think about it for awhile. And did you just walk into Steve’s house and tell him to shut up and sit down?  Seriously, how does that get right on any political spectrum?  And we are at Ignore.

All of the above. This isn't Texas Hold'em at your buddy's house. Who floats a peace deal, how and why can go in a myriad of directions. 

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

In the context of Prigozhin, the situation is the reverse of your description above. The mercenaries under Prigozhin's wing can push back against  him...precisely because they all work for Putin and Prigozhin's perceived maneuvering isn't arm twisting Putin...it is to curry favor with him by balancing out the war primed influence of the MoD. Make no mistake...in every sense that matters, Putin is the Russian state and the Russian state owns Wagner. The day Prigozhin forgets that is the last day you will hear from him.

Yup. One interesting context in this situation is how much control Kremlin has over Wagnerites operaing in Africa. Place is far, Russian embassies there rather skeleton, not to mention Russian Foreign Ministry is traditionally rather detached from political fights within state apparatus. This can actually cement Prig's bond with his core mercenaries if he wishes to. Indicator of how he is treated by Putin now will also be his personall presence there or in Russia.

[Kinophile]

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I pretty strongly disagree with this. Russia doesn't have rule of law. It has what some like to call a rule-by-law state. What that means is that the law exists on the books but it is only selectively enforced. Anyone with krysha can ignore the law at will and at the upper levels competition virtually requires that one does. Conversely, the power structure...meaning Putin...can at any time decide to activate the law against those he wishes to destroy or punish. This is not an esoteric subject within Russia. Everybody knows it and must adhere to the system. Wagner's slightly nebulous status heretofore was not to fool Russians...it was aimed at providing convenient myopia to decision makers in the West.

In the context of Prigozhin, the situation is the reverse of your description above. The mercenaries under Prigozhin's wing can push back against  him...precisely because they all work for Putin and Prigozhin's perceived maneuvering isn't arm twisting Putin...it is to curry favor with him by balancing out the war primed influence of the MoD. Make no mistake...in every sense that matters, Putin is the Russian state and the Russian state owns Wagner. The day Prigozhin forgets that is the last day you will hear from him.

 

I dunno... There's plenty lately that fits the bill of Biting The Hand That's Up Your Bum And Manipulating You. 

Priggy has built something adjacent and independent of the State line,  a mythology and ideology that are very un-Putin, and paired it with a coherent military formation that is highly visible and tied very clearly to Prigster. Prig also has his own, external independent income. 

That direct Politico-social-military connection (and abscence of an equivalent for Putin)  is where I start to seriously doubt that Prig is Putin's Lapdog... 

 

Edited May 20, 2023 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Im really curious if it has became that, rather than started out as that. He was pretty dang secure, as much as any autocratic really can be. 

Russian fears about Ukraine were always tied to the potential for color revolutions to get to Moscow and their pre-2014 interventions always tied to creating a Kyiv regime that was similar to the Kremlin. The neo-Yalta deal they wanted had the same fixation. Novarossiya ideology only arrived in any serious way post 2014 when the success of that intervention convinced them that such a thing was possible. As their horizons have diminished with the disaster of this one, the core concerns return to the fore.

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I dunno... There's plenty lately that fits the bill of Biting The Hand That's Up Your Bum And Manipulating You. 

Priggy has built something adjacent and independent of the State line,  a mythology and ideology that are very un-Putin, and paired it with a coherent military formation that is highly visible and tied very clearly to Prigster. Prig also has his own, external independent income. 

That direct Politico-social-military connection (and absence of an equivalent for Putin)  is where I start to seriously doubt that Prig is Putin's Lapdog... 

 

Who put Prigozhin in charge of Wagner? 

Who controls Wagner's logistics? 

Who controls them? 

[Kinophile]

Oh I get that the Kyiv Replacement Scheme was driven by fear of a resistant, actual democracy emerging in Kyiv.  I'm just not buying that it was actually existential for the Putin regime. 

Adjacent though,  I do buy that it was an emotive decision driven by Putin's self delusion, narcissism and sociopathy. 

Of course, in an autocracy,  what the Dear Leader feels is reality very quickly becomes everyone else's reality. If his fears are of Space Goblins descending from Mount Olympus,  then hello a Greek Special Military Operation. 

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Maybe I could comment on the last to sentences if you could re-write them in a way that makes sense. I didn't walk into any house and tell anyone anything. BTW, ever heard of the idea that a little be of knowledge can be dangerous? There is another concept: if it takes countless paragraphs to make a position, there is no position to be made. Remember the NYTs is written at an 8th grade level. And if one can't explain an idea to an 8th grader, then the teacher does not know the subject. And there is the famous one liner: keep it simple stupid. 

Here is another: “full of sh#t and bad manners”.

You posted ignorant drivel, got called out, basically told the moderator to “shut up cause you can’t tell me what to do” like an over entitled millennial. And are now pushing post-truth fanboi lines like they are scripture.

Dunning-Kruger: “The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias^[2]whereby people with low ability, expertise, or experience regarding a certain type of task or area of knowledge tend to overestimate their ability or knowledge.”

I just posted a half dozen reasons why you foundational premise is weak, your original post has zero merit, and you come back with “college boy eh?”  

It is a big internet there are all sorts of sites that will appeal to where you are coming from - good ol folksie wisdom and hard workin practical experience that “tells it like it is” in simple easily digestible one liners that will make you feel all sorts of clever. They distill the complexity of human conflict to 140 characters and offer easy answers to this scary complex old world.  You can learn all about “Elitist this and globalist that” and will no doubt hear all sorts of down home simple solutions that are so obvious.

And then we here can muddle along as best we are able because clearly “we just don’t get it”.

 

 

Edited May 20, 2023 by The_Capt

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup. One interesting context in this situation is how much control Kremlin has over Wagnerites operaing in Africa. Place is far, Russian embassies there rather skeleton, not to mention Russian Foreign Ministry is traditionally rather detached from political fights within state apparatus. This can actually cement Prig's bond with his core mercenaries if he wishes to. Indicator of how he is treated by Putin now will also be his personall presence there or in Russia.

The Russian Foreign Ministry has become pretty much irrelevant to the policy of the Russian state. Lavrov is a lapdog and the embassies are primarily fonts of poorly thought out propaganda. Prigozhin and Wagner are tightly tied into the GRU operationally and watched by the FSB. That's where the power is.

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Oh I get that the Kyiv Replacement Scheme was driven by fear of a resistant, actual democracy emerging in Kyiv.  I'm just not buying that it was actually existential for the Putin regime. 

Adjacent though,  I do buy that it was an emotive decision driven by Putin's self delusion, narcissism and sociopathy. 

Of course, in an autocracy,  what the Dear Leader feels is reality very quickly becomes everyone else's reality. If his fears are of Space Goblins descending from Mount Olympus,  then hello a Greek Special Military Operation. 

Where he wasn't wrong was in the fear that a democratic tide could swamp his autocracy. Where he completely blew it was in thinking that the solution to that problem was in going pure autocrat rather than in creating institutions to mediate domestic politics. In essence, he couldn't imagine that the world wasn't like him.

[kevinkin]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You posted ignorant drivel, got called out, basically told the moderator to “shut up cause you can’t tell me what to do” like an over entitled millennial. And are now pushing post-truth fanboi lines like they are scripture.

Show me the quote where that happened please. 

[Kinophile]

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Who put Prigozhin in charge of Wagner? 

Who controls Wagner's logistics? 

Who controls them? 

I'm not sure he was placed there, deliberately. More that he was allowed. 

But even so, it's the current incarnation of Prigozhin that I'm pointing to. He's charismatic,  intense, ideological and percieved as devoted to his men. He has energy, personal courage (at least more than Putin) and does not seem to find it hard to get large groups of his men to pose with him.  They also echo his sentiments themselves,  independently of his media machine. They're socially in sync. Putin has none of that vitalism left. 

Prigozhin's logistics,  I'm not convinced he has the Huge Massive Problems he shouts about. The more loudly a politician shouts,  the less I trust what they're saying. And he definitely has a sympathic faction within the Russian Army.

He's not on a tight leash by any means. 

EDIT: But the FSB connection cannot be ignored. It's absolutely a factor to bear in mind when figuring who is in control, or driving events. 

Edited May 20, 2023 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

Just now, Kinophile said:

Im not sure he was placed there, deliberately. More that he was allowed. 

But even so, it's the current incarnation of Prigozhin that I'm pointing to. He's charismatic,  intense, ideological and percieved as devoted to his men. He has energy, personal courage (at least more than Putin) and does not seem to find it hard to get large groups if his men to pose with him.  They also echo his sentiments themselves,  independently if his media machine.

His logistics,  Im not convinced he has the Huge Problems he shouts about. The more loudly a politician shouts,  the less I trust what they're saying. And he definitely has a sympathic faction within the Russian Army.

He's not on a tight leash by any means. 

Utkin founded it in 2014 after the Slavonic Group was not just shut down but its founders jailed by the FSB. Why? Because they founded a Russian merc group without Putin's express permission. Utkin's krisha was already tied to Putin then and Wagner was immediately sent in to support the seizure of the Donbass in concert with the GRU, spetznaz, et alia. He was getting medals in person from Putin within 18 months. Nothing about that suggests an independent operation.  

I agree Prigozhin is making a splash. My argument is that he is trying to curry favor with Putin and to create a persona that makes him hard to eliminate after Putin goes. A war hero fighting for the homeland is a pretty good idea...but it doesn't let you take on the big guy...just ask Zhukov.

My point on logistics is that if Putin tells the MoD to cut off Wagner, they will. Wagner without ammo isn't a threat to the regime and you can bet the FSB keeps a careful eye on who can/would help him. They hate Prigozhin like the plague.

[billbindc]

52 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Maybe I could comment on the last two sentences if you could re-write them in a way that makes sense. I didn't walk into any house and tell anyone anything. BTW, ever heard of the idea that a little knowledge can be dangerous? There is another concept: if it takes countless paragraphs to make a position, there is no position to be made. Remember the NYTs is written at an 8th grade level. And if one can't explain an idea to a 8th grader, then the teacher does not know the subject. And there is the famous one liner: keep it simple stupid. 

It occurs to me that if you can explain nuclear deterrence on an 8th grade level, you aren't explaining nuclear deterrence. 

The internet's full of dumb places. Let's not actually try to dumb this one down, eh?

 

[Kinophile]

13 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Utkin founded it in 2014 after the Slavonic Group was not just shut down but its founders jailed by the FSB. Why? Because they founded a Russian merc group without Putin's express permission. Utkin's krisha was already tied to Putin then and Wagner was immediately sent in to support the seizure of the Donbass in concert with the GRU, spetznaz, et alia. He was getting medals in person from Putin within 18 months. Nothing about that suggests an independent operation.  

I agree Prigozhin is making a splash. My argument is that he is trying to curry favor with Putin and to create a persona that makes him hard to eliminate after Putin goes. A war hero fighting for the homeland is a pretty good idea...but it doesn't let you take on the big guy...just ask Zhukov.

My point on logistics is that if Putin tells the MoD to cut off Wagner, they will. Wagner without ammo isn't a threat to the regime and you can bet the FSB keeps a careful eye on who can/would help him. They hate Prigozhin like the plague.

Agreed,  yes,  it's well established that Wagner was very much originated, operated and directed as a semi-state asset. The lineage is clear and it was very directly tied to Kremlin pressure campaigns. 

But is that still the case?

This war has transformed Wagner, and I'm seriously curious how much of the old formatting remains. They have developed into a serious military formation,  not just an over-armed criminal organization.

Back then, Prigster operated and presented as a Businessman. These days? He's presenting as a War Hero, a Fighter, and, most dangerously in this Russia,  as a Leader. 

That's a drastic change that, due to its steady and organic development over the last year,  feels like its driven by Prig not Putin. It's a very strange thing to allow within a system that orbits a central person. 

I'm not dissing your call, I enjoy this back-forth. 

But I'm wary of applying How It Started,  How It Was -  to How It Is Now. Something fundamental has changed and there's no way the previous controlling relationship has stayed the same.

Zhukov never had a military formation tied as closely and identified as completely with him as Wagner/Prigozhin.  He was a military creature, with political aspirations. Prig feels like the mirror opposite,  which possibly makes him more dangerous.

He's built two bases- political and military, united in his personal Cult. 

Where's Putins equivalent? 

Im absolutely dying to see what happens if/when the FSB makes a move on him. If they fail,  itll probably undercut Putin far more than any quantity of casualties, any type of crushing defeat in this horrificly useless war. Itll prove him weak domestically,  which ties into your point that this war is (now) about internal control of the Kremlin. Kyiv is a macguffiin, at best, for these selfish ****s. 

Edited May 20, 2023 by Kinophile

[Harmon Rabb]

I'm so scared!!!

[billbindc]

Just now, Kinophile said:

Agreed,  yes,  it's well established that Wagner was very much originated, operated and directed as a semi-state asset. The lineage is clear and it was very directly tied to Kremlin pressure campaigns. 

But is that still the case?

This war has transformed Wagner, and I'm seriously curious how much of the old formatting remains. They have developed into a serious military formation,  not just an over-armed criminal organization.

Back then, Prigster operated and presented as a Businessman. These days? He's presenting as a War Hero, a Fighter, and, most dangerously in this Russia,  as a Leader. 

That's a drastic change that, due to its steady and organic development over the last year,  feels like its driven by Prig not Putin. It's a very strange thing to allow within a system that orbits a central person. 

I'm not dissing your call, I enjoy this back-forth. 

But I'm wary of applying How It Started to How It Is Now. 

No worries. Happy to dig into it. It makes me think through what I believe and where I get it from.

I agree that Wagner is bigger than it was and that Prigozhin has become a much larger public figure in the last year. I just differ on who, why and what for in each case. Here are my premises/positions: 

1. Putin correctly sees that in a war, win or lose, the MoD will grow in power.

2. He is *very* cognizant of the role disgruntled soldiers played the last time Russia lost a war badly in Europe.

3. He already had Wagner, fully under his personal control, as a vehicle for military operations. 

4. Diverting military resources into Wagner prevents too much power from accumulating on the Arbatskaya. 

5. Building up Wagner gives Putin unmediated control of military power that is amenable political objectives. 

6. The war in Ukraine is now about survival in Moscow, not winning in Mariupol. 

Apply those premises to just Bakhmut alone and I think they stand up very well.

[Kinophile]

Very good, sound points. 

I guess the only way to see how things are,  as outsiders operating off osint, will be more overt action on either party. 

If Prig or the FSB makes a move against something critical to either party,  that will give us better Indicators of Who's Hand Is Up Who's Bum.

I await further data... 

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I'm so scared!!!

The only colossal risk is the orcs winning, which is why we are being very sure it doesn't happen.

[kevinkin]

51 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It occurs to me that if you can explain nuclear deterrence on an 8th grade level, you aren't explaining nuclear deterrence.

It's easy: if I poke you in the eye, I win. If you poke me in the eye, you win - maybe. If we both poke each other at the same time we both lose. Nuclear deterrence has been nothing other than a Mexican stand-off. The fear of losing outweighs the gains of perhaps winning. I demonstrated science and engineering as part community outreach. You would be surprised the light bulbs that go off when you keep things simple and hands on. I was never asked to explain nuclear deterrence. But if I was, my first demo would sound the school alarms and send the kids under their desks like we did in the 60's. Then explain how radiation penetrates surfaces and what they just did was fruitless.     

Edited May 21, 2023 by kevinkin

[akd]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Show me the quote where that happened please. 

This was ignorant drivel:

 

[kevinkin]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

This was ignorant drivel:

Show me the ignorance and drivel in that post please. If you disagree with the points, that is fine. I was not disrespectful to the forum. Foul language - no. Attacking people personality - no. Unless a peach is easily bruised. My view on the war is  consistent with almost everyone here. I just can express it in fewer words. Those words are at times off color. But we have heard at lot worse in this and other forums. 

[Offshoot]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

Who put Prigozhin in charge of Wagner? 

Who controls Wagner's logistics? 

Who controls them? 

The answers to these questions do not have to be static.

For a long time Prigozhin denied any connection to Wagner but in the past year has become the very public and outspoken face of it, gaining the public political support he lacked and the devotion of his cadre. Also in the past year Wagner have secured income flow from Africa, so theoretically they could be less tied to the MoD for logistics.

It doesn't necessarily mean that Prigozhin is trying to be a player and make a tilt for power. He could be doing what Putin is doing and carving out a more secure space for himself so that Putin cannot just easily replace him. From lap dog to guard dog.

EDIT: OK, I didn't read far enough before posting. I see you have talked about Prigozhin "making a splash".

 

Edited May 21, 2023 by Offshoot

[FancyCat]

mariupol, berdyansk, thank god for the UK and storm shadow.