How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Unusual application of T-54B according to words of one Russian soldier:

T-54B, Southern direction. A month ago up to the company of such vehicles (T-54B and T-55) was handed over to howitzer battalion. They work from close positions, the crew has 3 men. Crews were assembled from tank battalion and artillety, after this they had week training. I can't say about whole theater, but we had usage of them as SP-howitzers 

Looks like Russians in some units have critical lack of artillery, probably in motor-rifle regiments of Territorial Troops, so old tanks are given to them instead artillery. 

 

This is obviously a symptom of losses.  The only way it makes sense to dust off and fix up an old clunker tank is because there's nothing appropriate to send to the front AND what's on the production floor won't be ready in quantity soon enough.

Steve

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I can't be the only one around here who enjoyed watching the television show Vikings

First three seasons were enough good, but than further, than more and more terrible. My eyes can't watch last season with flights over Kyiv, standing on flat land %) Lagerta is really cool, but her taekwondo and BJJ-style fights in the movie looks strange %) 

"The Northman" is more cool from my re-enactor point of view  ) 

Edited May 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

Anybody know where I can find a map with some detail on where the different command lines separate the front on the Russia side? 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

I occasionally post updates on the war to Facebook, to keep my friends and family in the loop. I'm still trying to piece together what happened in this attack near Bakhmut based on ISW's report and what people have posted here. So before I actually post this, and potentially mislead my friends and family, I submit the following for comments, criticisms, additions, and revisions:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From what I can piece together, the Ukrainians conducted two limited counterattacks on May 9th and 10th. One to the northwest of Bakhmut, the other to the southwest of Bakhmut (neither were in the city itself). The one that I mentioned yesterday, pending details, seems to have been the one to the southwest, occurring on May 9th. The area was apparently held by the Russian 72nd motorized rifle brigade. There are a few competing narratives about what happened. The most likely version is that the brigade's 6th and 8th companies suffered heavy losses, but the brigade itself was not destroyed. It is the most specific version of the story, and other versions could be consistent with it with some interpretation. The story that "the brigade was destroyed" could easily be an exaggeration of "its 6th and 8th companies suffered heavy losses". And that it broke and ran is completely consistent with two of its companies suffering heavy losses. At least one Ukrainian spokesman has claimed that the brigade suffered serious losses, but was still intact, which is also consistent. The Ukrainians reportedly advanced 2.6 kilometers along a 3km front as a result of this attack, though none of my usual sources are able to independently verify this.

That would be a good result on its own for a limited counterattack. But a Wagner assault group reportedly also moved into the area shortly after the attack in order to stop the Ukrainian advance and re-establish the frontline. The Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade (the unit that conducted the attack) had already stopped and entrenched itself, and the Wagner assault group blundered straight into their positions.

There are already some estimates of the Russian casualties, although they should be taken with the usual grain of salt. Prigozhin, the owner of Wagner PMC, claims they lost 500 men. I'm not sure if that number applies to 72nd's losses, Wagner's losses, or both, or whether they refer to just killed or total casualties. I don't normally put a lot of stock in what Prigozhin says. He views the regular Russian military as a rival, not a partner, so he likes to play up their failures in order to make Wagner look better. Ironically, he also likes to play up the difficulties faced by Wagner forces in order to squeeze more resources out of the regular Russian military, which he is dependent on for supplies. But in this case his claim seems to be corroborated by a statement from the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, to the effect that his claim was accurate (although they may also be biased). The confirmed Russian losses are somewhere from 69-92 (either 64 or 87 Russian bodies were collected, and 5 prisoners taken). Based on the confirmed body count I'd say that 250-500 total casualties is plausible, closer to 500 if there are uncounted Russian dead (there have generally been at least 3 or 4 WIA for every KIA in this war so far). Even if the brigade was at full strength, 500 casualties would be a serious blow, representing a loss of about 25% of the brigade in a single action. But the brigade has been in action for some time, and was probably nowhere near its full strength. So this may have represented an even heavier blow to its remaining strength.

By itself, this action is not significant. But it may be significant as an indicator of what is happening in the larger picture. This attack, and the attack to the northwest of Bakhmut, together indicate that the Russians have well and truly run out of steam in Bakhmut (mere inches from the finish-line at that (the last report I heard was that the Ukrainians only hold 2.35 square kilometers in the westernmost corner of the city)). It was looking like the Russian attack had culminated about a week ago, but I didn't want to say anything yet in case it was just a lull. At that point the Ukrainians held 2.5 square kilometers. At a pace of 0.15 square kilometers a week, it would take the Russians another 4 months to secure the remaining 2.35 square kilometers of the city. That's almost the amount of time it took them to secure the first 39.1 square kilometers of the city. So to say that the Russian advance has noticeably slowed down is an understatement.

More importantly, this is only the latest in a series of small, limited counterattacks that have been occurring along the entire frontline in Ukraine. I don't know whether these attacks are occurring on an ad-hoc basis on the initiative of local commanders, or as part of a larger plan to shape the battlefield in preparation for the main offensive. If the former, it means that local commanders are seeing more and more openings to conduct limited attacks, which bodes very poorly for Russia's chances of resisting the big offensive (keep in mind that none of the units conducting these counterattacks so far are the 9-12 fresh brigades that are still being held back, and have been specifically trained and equipped, for the upcoming offensive). If the latter, then it means we are already seeing the opening phase of the big offensive. Whether they are part of a larger plan or not, the combined effect of these attacks will be to dilute whatever reinforcements the Russians have available by forcing them to respond to local emergencies, cause confusion about where the main offensive will land, and possibly even create cracks in the Russian line ahead of the main offensive. 

I still don't know when the main offensive will begin. My gut says it will be any day now, but my gut is biased by impatience. I think it will most likely start in June. That is based on current weather forecasts and an assumption that the Ukrainians will want more than two weeks without rain. That is supported by statements by Zelensky to the effect that they need more time for more of the promised equipment to arrive. There are plausible options for offensive actions along pretty much the entire frontline. But my guess is still that it will land in Zaporizhia Oblast, aimed at reaching the coast and cutting off Russian forces in Crimea and southern Kherson Oblast. The latest news I've heard is that Britain has now provided Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles, which have enough range to reach the Kerch bridge from anywhere along the coast of Zaporizhia Oblast, meaning that trapping Russian forces in Crimea is now a realistic option.

That's a solid account of what just happened.

The most important point is to not get confused by "ad-hoc" counter attacks where a local commander sees a local opportunity with those which are more deliberate.  Anything in-and-around Bakhmut at any size is likely deliberate, given the difficulties and resources of significant counter attacking.  However, we don't know if it's deliberate brigade or deliberate higher up.  We also don't know to what extent it is part of the larger summer counter offensive or simply a way to relieve pressure.

Whatever the case is, other sectors are not engaging in similar scaled counter attacks.  Therefore, we have no pattern of behavior to draw conclusions from.  This could be a one off for all we know.

Time will tell!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Anybody know where I can find a map with some detail on where the different command lines separate the front on the Russia side? 

Sadly, I don't know of anything either.  Best I know of is MilitaryLand's "Deployment" map.  It is here:

https://militaryland.net/maps/deployment-map/

It's a decent attempt at showing what units are where, but it's definitely incomplete and in the past I've noticed some errors.  That said, it's decent and better than nothing.

Steve

[Huba]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Just making sure that people understand that picture was photoshopped.  The whole sticking ERA on stuff has apparently become quite a meme lately.  From what I can tell it's Ukraine making fun of Russia sticking them on everything.

Steve

Why stick ERA on CR2, if it has proprietary, battle proven up-armor package? I don't see why Britain wouldn't provide it with the donated vehicles. 
Apart from added protection, it also (in my personal opinion) makes Chally2 the meanest looking tank ever built, especially when compared to the poor old T-54:

[Battlefront.com]

Peskov tells us that Lukashenko had to bugger out of the May 9th celebrations because something in Minsk needed his attention.  Since this is coming from Peskov, we know for sure that's not why:

https://news.yahoo.com/putins-spokesman-explains-why-lukashenko-101000917.html

Steve

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

I think the plan is to let one drive onto the Kerch bridge and watch it collapse from the weight.

In that case I guess add as many as K-1 ERA as is physically possible. Also good for the memers

[Haiduk]

Russian milbloggers today is alarming:

This is part of long post of Kots, where he guesses what can mean transporting of UKR tanks on trailers toward Russian border - demonstrative maneuver to distract troops or preparation to attack, but where - Svatove? Belgorod? Or cut Svarove group logistic, bypassing line of defense through Russian territory?

 

Local bereakthrough of UKR troops on Soledar direction, "situation is hard"

Troops of Russian 9th motor-rifle regiment (lykely new formed unit of 18th motor-rifle division of 11th  Army Corps, coastal troops, Baltic Feet) abandoned positions near Khromove and Bohdanivka (blue marked zones), losing areas about 650 x 600 m

Mid of day. NW from Klishchiivka units of 4 motor-rifle brigade (LPR? ) and 374th separate motor-rifle battalion (I don't know what is it) abandoned positions after atatck of UKR troops. But positoins were returned with Wagner counter-attack.  

 

Local successful attack of UKR forces near Mayorske, Horlivka area. Russians counter-attacking, in attempt to take posiotions bvack

Edited May 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Well, because of our sources keep silence, I will post further panic of Russian TGs

Last update - 9th motor-rifle regiment lost much more ground to this time (PS. Wagners map in some location is very optimistic)

 

Reportedly MoD transferred mobiks to hold flanks of Bakhmut. And this against hardened battalions of VSU! If this is true this is "pizdets". Tuvian circus in its best! [hint on Shoigu, who is Tuvian]

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting!!  This morning I was looking a the map and thinking a medium sized push towards Soledar would be a good idea.  I was thinking of a coordinated push from the southwest and northeast might cause significant panic.  I was thinking the timing would be best after the main counter offensive started, but if Ukraine sees an opportunity to push back from the southwest now... who am I to say that's wrong?

OK, so in the last three days we've seen significant counter attacks against Russian positions in the south and now north, with ongoing push backs within Bakhmut itself.

Still to early to know what this is all about, but my sense is Ukraine is "testing the waters" along the whole front.  Things seem to be favorable, so hopefully we'll see more soon.

BTW, this fits in with my concept of the strategic plan for this counter offensive.  Poke Russian forces in the eyes in the Donbas, force them to divert resources there, launch the main counter offensive elsewhere, let that drain resources, then hit in the Donbas again.

I'm liking what I see so far. [cross posted with Haiduk's second update.  Let me say I am liking this even more!]

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Last update - 9th motor-rifle regiment lost much more ground to this time (PS. Wagners map in some location is very optimistic)

Yes, this is how I view Wagner maps even without checking other sources.  If they say the lost some ground, they likely lost a lot more than they are showing.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Some Russian milbloggers explained succes of armored attack of Azov on 8th of May against 6th and 8th companies of 72nd MRB, because they "were betrayed and thrown to zero line without ATGMs and even RPGs". But today Azov stormers issued a photos from captured positions, filled with TM-62 mines and ATGM Fagot missiles. Likely Russians either didn't have a time to set minefields or didn't expect attack and were too relaxed. So, when UKR troops suddenly attacked, they already hadn't spirit to engage them with ATGMs under direct tank fire.

 

Edited May 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Fernando]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Here is a bonus tweet for you guys, I can't be the only one around here who enjoyed watching the television show Vikings. If you watched the show I'm sure you remember this lady.

 

Lagertha!!!!!!! 

[Haiduk]

New collage of R18 night bomber work of SBU "Alfa" special forces

 

[Haiduk]

Russian convicts mobilized by Shoigu to army. Reportedly 10 000 of prisoners already mobilized. One of reasons, why Prigozhyn so angry on Shoigu - he deprived him of the human resourse, which can be useful for Prigozhyn's political efforts. PMC Wagner and Prigozhyn gained large popularity and aureole of "invincible troops" in Russian society on the blood of southands of convicts. Now his dreams can be ruined.

 

[Haiduk]

 

[Beleg85]

Really, many Russian commentators are starting to get into some form of mass histeria. Barely anything really happenned, but they already see Ukrainians preparing dozens ampibious boats to cross Dnieper (in pl, summary of post by muscovite milblogger Vojenny Usviedomitiel):

https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1656728762543665152

One could imagine these public quarrells between MoD, Wagner and other parts of Russian military machine seriously undermined their trust.

[Huba]

6 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I do wonder what these systems can achieve. Supply for Ukraine might be a couple hundred to start with and another couple hundred per year in the future.

In the past, we have seen around a hundred cruise missiles strike an airfield and fail to achieve the desired impact. (Syria)

I would be interested in seeing a relevant expert's analysis of these systems potential in Ukraine. 

Here's TheDrive article about it, probably as good an analysis as we can get at this time:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-storm-shadow-missiles-are-a-big-problem-for-russia

Edited May 11, 2023 by Huba

[Haiduk]

Situation inside Bakhmut

UKR troops has retaken Industrial college. Heavy clashes for sсhool and kindergarden on Korsunskoho street. 

UKR troops pushed off Russians from part of Ivanivskyi forest SW Ivanivske village (southern part of forest was under Russian control). Wagners threw there own "core" units to stabilze situation

Also in Bakhmut area was destroyed Pantsyr-S1. First strike missed, but probably slightly damaged it, secons was successful

 

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Situation inside Bakhmut

UKR troops has retaken Industrial college. Heavy clashes for sсhool and kindergarden on Korsunskoho street. 

UKR troops pushed off Russians from part of Ivanivskyi forest SW Ivanivske village (southern part of forest was under Russian control). Wagners threw there own "core" units to stabilze situation

Also in Bakhmut area was destroyed Pantsyr-S1. First strike missed, but probably slightly damaged it, secons was successful

 

The best part of these events is Wagner throwing in its core units. It doesn't have much,  comparatively and their intake is slow.

They rarely promote vertically from the convict ranks so their replenishment of experienced cadres is really lateral,  from within the invasion force. That's fine,  so long as the force is attacking but when the real defense work begins I expect the better personnel to be held on to by their local commands. 

Wagner, like all elitist units, will find it difficult to sustain a long defense if they're throwing in their core. 

[Kinophile]

Really gives you a good sense of just how big these things are. 

Theoretical range 

So nowhere in the AO is safe.  Strikes across the border are verboten. 

Edited May 11, 2023 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

 

Oh good, someone did a map. In addition to Crimea, is there anything in the L/DPR that has been out of range until now, and just cries out for a smoking accident?

[Haiduk]

 

[Haiduk]

The hundred of UK armor, bought by Serhiy Prytula charity fund, hadn't armament, so now these vehicles arming due to wishes of "clients". On the hull of Spartan on the photo is logo of "People's armor" project of Prytula foundation.

Large part of Spartans got 1st mech.battalion "Da Vinci Volves" of 67th mech.brigade - 33. Among them 15 has "Honor" company of this battalion.