How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

7 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

According to this guy, it's to send a political message inside Russia - "we are still able to make Ukrainians suffer".

He notes they used six of the rare hypersonic missiles, which they normally keep in reserve, just in order to get through the air defence.

The hypersonics can get through the Ukrainian AD, but how much accuracy do they have?  Probably terrible, and if they're not careful they might accidentally hit Poland or Romania with a stray.  They can probably avoid Poland by launching from far enough back that the missiles don't have enough energy to get there, but a nav or control system failure could send one off into left field.

Maybe time to loan Moldova some directed energy ground systems and crews to protect their own airspace. Since they're not a belligerent they can get fully crewed systems.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, keas66 said:

Are they still trying to win the war by degrading Ukrainian Power Infrastructure ?

Until the UA develops enough combat power to break the stalemate on the ground, it's a battle of wills. Putin thinks going after civilian infrastructure attacks the will of the Ukrainian people while the Russian military says in the news cycle for internal consumption. They call this approach a "wing and a prayer". 

[DesertFox]

In the competition to throw the turrett a few inches higher...

 

 

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, keas66 said:

Trying to understand the point of last nights Russian missile attack . Seems like nothing in particular was happening geopolitical wise . Why are they wasting missiles like this ? Are they still trying to win the war by degrading Ukrainian Power Infrastructure ?

Two days ago city authorities of Kharkiv first time since Day 1 turned on all street lights and lightening of big Ukrainian flag on tall mast. Russian milbloggers issued some angry post in style "In what *** we wasted thosands of missiles if "khokhols" to this time have enough electricity even in Kharkiv? Maybe our strategists wanted only to force Zelenskiy to negotiations, but not to achieve victory, destroying transport infrastructure, stores with weapon etc"

Also some Russian politics today made a statement "This is revenge for Briansk"

Kyiv was struck with two missiles. First "Kinzhal" at 5:45 of morning hit thermal power plant in southern part of the city. Despite this is 11 km from my home the sound of explosion was so loud, that I jumped on my sofa - I thought this was impact nearby. Second missile, probably "Kalibr"  or Kh-101 either hit or was intercepted in western part of city almost simultainously with "Kinzhal" impact. Fragmemts of missile destroyed and damaged several cars, there were three injured. 

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Could well be that the thing was taken out, and I hope so. The video ending just looks fishy to me.

Even if it missed it missed under 1m.  The chances that it didn't at least cause significant damage are really low.  Probably repairable given some time, but at least for the short term out of action and requiring more resources.  A solid hit would be preferable, but either way it was a good shot.

Steve

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Nice

 

 

Taras Chmut, head of Back-ad-Alive charity fund, told several days ago, that first Switchblade-600 already hit two Russian SAM. Likely this is it. 

Alas, explosions are not enough powerful - probably both launchers taken out only temporary.

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Alas, explosions are not enough powerful - probably both launchers taken out only temporary.

Sure, but that´s fine. Given russian abilities to repair stuff, that will me more longterm than shortterm repairs 

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, Haiduk said:

Taras Chmut, head of Back-ad-Alive charity fund, told several days ago, that first Switchblade-600 already hit two Russian SAM. Likely this is it. 

I was thinking the explosions are too big for Switchblade 300 and probably about right for Switchblade 600.

Just now, Haiduk said:

Alas, explosions are not enough powerful - probably both launchers taken out only temporary.

I would not be so sure.  These are very sensitive vehicles and they are unarmored.  Those hits likely severed/damaged a large amount of critical systems.  Can they be rebuilt?  Maybe, but it could be that they are damaged enough that they can only be used as "donors" for repairing other vehicles.  My guess is these two vehicles are permanently out of action.

Steve

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Even if it missed it missed under 1m.  The chances that it didn't at least cause significant damage are really low.  Probably repairable given some time, but at least for the short term out of action and requiring more resources.  A solid hit would be preferable, but either way it was a good shot.

Steve

The bigger question is did the TOS-1 have any rockets left? Those things are beyond explosive. If it had just fired the last rocket it might only be medium damaged either way. I guarantee the crew had an oh bleep moment if it didn't cook off. Also the Ukrainians seem to be getting better at finding them. There is indisputable tape of one of them going boom a week or so ago.

 

[Haiduk]

On 3/8/2023 at 12:03 AM, Jiggathebauce said:

He was in Right Sector as well, as said in your previous post. Was this guy a believer in far right ideology?

During Maidan Right Sector united many people of different political sights and they were united with common thing - they were ready to withstand directly with Yanukovich regime, not only by standing and dancing under songs and speeches. 

Right Sector wasn't a political movement to this time. Just during one of first rally more decisive people gathered from right hand from scene of Maidan and once the presenter from the scene appealed to them with some anouncement with words "Guys! All those, who stand in right sector..... !' And since this name stuck to them %) 

Was "Da Vinchi" far-right? I don't know. And I don't know what do you mean under "far". Ukrainmain right wing has enough wide spectre - from some type like US Republicans to real neo-nazi marginals, but unlike European right forces, they have some other vector. "Da Vinchi" obviosly was nationalist and if he was in VUC, probably he was close to ideology of Dmytro Yarosh, fist leader of Right Sector, which later abandoned this movement, who was so called "state (not ethnic) nationalist". 

But "Da Vinchi" since 2014 wrote not political proclamations, but only about war, about struggle with Russia on frontline  and inside the country,  about own experience and about his unit, when he became a commander. This guy in own short adult life has seen only war and own comrades, who were not only "pure Ukrainians" and many of them even spoke in Russian, but all they fought for Ukraine and "Da Vinchi" became a real hero of this war, an example how young man can sacrifice own best years and finally life for struggle for Ukraine.

"You will win Ukrainian State or will fall in the fight for it"  (Ukrainian nationalist Decalog, commandment 1)

Edited March 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Can they be rebuilt?

Of course. Manufadturer also produces spare parts, kits and blocks, which can be substituted in plan maintainance or during repair. All this stored and go to work if need. All the more so these are new systems. 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

During Maidan Right Sector united many people of different political sights and they were united with common thing - they were ready to withstand directly with Yanukovich regime, not only by standing and dancing under songs and speeches. 

Right Sector wasn't a political movement to this time. Just during one of first rally more decisive people gathered from right hand from scene of Maidan and once the presenter from the scene appealed to them with some anouncement with words "Guys! All those, who stand in right sector..... !' And since this name stuck to them %) 

Was "Da Vinchi" far-right? I don't know. And I don't know what you meant under "far". Ukrainmain right wing has enough big spectre, but unlike European right forces, they have some other vector. "Da Vinchi" obviosly was nationalist and if he was in VUC, probably he was close to ideology of Dmytro Yarosh, fist leader of Right Sector, which later abandoned this movement, who was so called "state (not ethnic) nationalist". 

But "Da Vinchi" since 2014 wrote not political proclamations, but only about war, about struggle with Russia on frontlinew and inside the country,  about own experience and about his unit, when he became a commander. This guy in own short adult life has seen only war and own comrades, who were not only "pure Ukrainians" and many of them even spoke in Russian, but all they fought for Ukriane and "Da Vinchi" became a real hero of this war, an example how young man can sacrifice own best years and finally life for struggle for Ukraine.

"You will win Ukrainian State or will fall in the fight for it"  (Ukrainian nationalist Decalog, commandment 1)

Thank you for that.

Many years ago, before some of you were born probably, I wrote a paper on why people (not just Germans) volunteered for the Waffen SS.  Many did not do it because of racial or ideological views, but rather for more mundane reasons... cool uniforms to impress the ladies (I am not making this up), being a member of an "elite" unit, or simply to "defend X" (with X = whatever country the SS unit was associated with).  Another reason was the SS was often the only force that someone from X country could join up with that wasn't a local security/thug force or unarmed logistics (Hiwi).  Boredom, lack of employment opportunities, a way to escape poor living conditions, etc. was added to the list.  Later in the war forced transfers from the regular conscription pool became common.

My point here is the standard "do not judge a book by its cover" and be careful to "not judge someone by the company they keep".  Just as with Azov, Right Sector is not a monolithic organization.  Also, the primary purpose of both Azov and Right Sector was to fight for independence from Russia.  That should always be kept in mind.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Of course. Manufadturer also produces spare parts, kits and blocks, which can be substituted in plan maintainance or during repair. All this stored and go to work if need. All the more so these are new systems. 

Do not be so confident of that   Even systems that are properly designed to be modular are not always as they seem.  Modularity requires a lot of extremely good engineering and manufacturing, which increases costs.  Russia is well known for cutting corners.

At some point even the best designed or simplistic system can be so riddled with damage that it is a "write off".  Remember the videos of Russian maintenance crews showing videos of vehicles riddled with small holes?  Theoretically those trucks could be repaired, but in reality it would be easier/cheaper to build a brand new one.

In any case, those two vehicles hit by the loitering munitions are not going to be in service for quite a while.  Possibly forever.

Steve

[Haiduk]

CNN article about series of negotiations, which allowed to stop assault of Azovstal and to resque civilians and save lives for remained defenders: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/09/europe/azovastal-mariupol-siege-talks-intl-cmd/index.html

There were three rounds of negotiations in Mariupol. Initially participated UKR parliamemt deputy Oleksandr Kovaliov, Valentin Kryzhanovskiy - former serviceman of SBU, who betrayed in 2014 and three Russian generals Andrey Sychevoy (ciommander of Mariupol operation), Vladimir Alekseyev and Aleksandr Zorin - latter two Russian generals were born in Ukraine in Soviet times. On last stages of negotiations, also participated deputy of head of GUR Dmytro Usov and Ukrainan officers from Azovstal, including comamnder of "Azov" Denys Prokopenko

On the photo - first negotiations on 25th of April from left to right - Kovaliov, Sychevoy and Kruzannovskiy

 

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Remember the videos of Russian maintenance crews showing videos of vehicles riddled with small holes?

Russia has thousands of trucks, but TOR and S-300V this is value equipment, losses of which will cause great bureaucraсy and discipline showdowns from high-command to poor lieutenant or sergeant- commander of this launcher (if he still alive). Also these vehilces were hit not on "zero line", so can be evacuated"   

[Beleg85]

41 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

"You will win Ukrainian State or will fall in the fight for it"  (Ukrainian nationalist Decalog, commandment 1)

Worth to note this "Decalog" was on of craziest piece of hatred created by late XIX/early XX cent. ethnonationalisms in Europe. Based on concepts of "intelectual nationalisms" or "saloon nationalisms" of Dymitro Doncov, still XIX cent. and rather theoretical in its roots, it bore very real genocidal fruits during WWII. It literally conditioned young Ukrainian nationalists to commit every cruelty. Point 7:

"You will not hesitate to commit even the greatest crime, if the good of the cause demands it."

Point 8:

"With hatred and deceit you will receive the enemies of your nation."

Point 10:

"You will strive to expand the strength, fame, wealth and area of the Ukrainian state, even through the enslavement of foreigners."

Later new "light" version was created, with most controversial pieces removed, but almost everybody knew old one as well and many OUN/UPA sotnias during WWII still made pledge on old version (or variations of both- many youngsters preferred old version as it was more edgy).

Out of pure coincidentality, here 10 Hutu commandments:

https://www.rwanda-nogreaterlove.com/hutu-10-commandments

It's pretty obvious Da Vinci was far right nationalist to a pont; it's almost impossible belong to RS and not having a lot of exposition to extremist views. Almost all nationalists are or end as far right, btw. It's simply nature of this kind of ideologies- they are like self-spinning wheel normal guys can't control in the end, even if they think they can. However Haiduk is right that Ukraine has countless variations of nationalisms, including some pretty odd ones, like "non-ethnic" nationalism (which experiences of XX century spectacularly refuted everywhere in Europe- but not everyone get the memo). Others, more measured and smater, imagine nationalisms as a stage for development of a country that must be gone through for a generation or two in order to let it go later. Looking at homini sovieticii in Donbas, hard to blame them...however they are also wrong in the end. Generally experimenting with these narrations almost always leads to troubles.

That being said, it is terrible that such young guys must die defending their country during this war, and far-right folks have the same right to fight for it as queer from Kiyv nightclubs. All in all, it's Russians who are fault. Glory to the braves, even if they were misguided during lifetime.

[Fenris]

Poland has been living up to what it promises so hopefully this pans out sooner rather than later

 

[Fenris]

More drone footage, interesting in that it shows a T-80 going from initial harassment to abandoned to destroyed.

 

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

It's pretty obvious Da Vinci was far right nationalist to a pont; it's almost impossible belong to RS and not having a lot of exposition to extremist views. Almost all nationalists are or end as far right, btw. It's simply nature of this kind of ideologies- they are like self-spinning wheel normal guys can't control in the end, even if they think they can.

This is correct.  I should have added that to my SS comment above.  Extremists are, in no small way, "cults".  And like any cult, either you wind up believing even the craziest aspects or you leave because you don't (sometimes leaving = death).  The group enforces this because anything that conflicts with their extremist ideology is seen as a threat.  Which it in fact is.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Fenris said:

More drone footage, interesting in that it shows a T-80 going from initial harassment to abandoned to destroyed.

 

Heh... covered here already

In my notes I've long since concluded that grenade type bombs on top of armored vehicles doesn't often knock the vehicle out.  In this case it took 5 direct hits before it was abandoned, likely due to a coolant or other fluid leak leading to the engine seizing.

Steve

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heh... covered here already

In my notes I've long since concluded that grenade type bombs on top of armored vehicles doesn't often knock the vehicle out.  In this case it took 5 direct hits before it was abandoned, likely due to a coolant or other fluid leak leading to the engine seizing.

Steve

Ukraine is actively beating the bushes for more effective drone compatible munitions.

 

Quote

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-wants-u-s-cluster-bombs-but-not-for-what-you-think?mc_cid=5ec82700c0&mc_eid=30cb33bc75&utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation&spot_im_redirect_source=pitc&spot_im_comment_id=sp_JjtET6Vo_article$6169123_c_2MjrkQ4YI80om18PjjYe4eb9vUZ&spot_im_highlight_immediate=true

People have to be working on something designed from scratch for the purpose. It is a pretty unique use case. The grenade is subject to very little stress. There is scope to make a cheap COTS semi guided fuse/fin set up. There are virtually no g forces at any point in the flight. You could do a very thin walled plastic with almost all the mass devoted to either a shaped charge, or explosive wrapped in buckshot. Thermite might be very useful, too. 

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by dan/california

[chrisl]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Ukraine is actively beating the bushes for more effective drone compatible munitions.

 

People have to be working on something designed from scratch for the purpose. It is a pretty unique use case. 

 

That's pretty genius.  It's giving the submunitions the precision that they wished they'd had when they were originally made.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Taras Chmut, head of Back-ad-Alive charity fund, told several days ago, that first Switchblade-600 already hit two Russian SAM. Likely this is it. 

Alas, explosions are not enough powerful - probably both launchers taken out only temporary.

Given likely state of Russian maintenance I would be more optimistic.  

[Beleg85]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is correct.  I should have added that to my SS comment above.  Extremists are, in no small way, "cults".  And like any cult, either you wind up believing even the craziest aspects or you leave because you don't (sometimes leaving = death).  The group enforces this because anything that conflicts with their extremist ideology is seen as a threat.  Which it in fact is.

Steve

Many people in Eastern Europe unfortunately seem to have a perspective that is slightly different, where crux of problem lies- since they perceive their nationhood to historically develop in "unnatural" (= stateless) way, they view nationalisms as positive, defensive and organic thing, not dangerous cult of crazies. That's why we see so many bright, active guys of post-Maidan generation in this war wearing (shocking to the Westerners) far-right symbols, occassionally venerating mass murderers or developing those odd intelectual concepts of nationhood. Truth to be told, I spoke with several such guys during Kyiv visit years ago and they were much more intellectually prepared than our own usual domestic nats. Ukraine is still Texas for ideas in this regard.

 

https://twitter.com/LachowskiMateus/status/1633957485244477446

Lachowski after speaking with defenders of Bakhmut seem to be in better mood- reportedly more and more reinforcements are coming. It may be that these last 4-5kms may be a very hard nut to crack for moskals.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Beleg85

[Fenris]

Drones in the clip were probably looking for infantry.  Was going to say they really need something that can be a HEAT warhead, those cluster bomb sub-munitions would appear to be a perfect option.