How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Absolutely.  Keeping them in a fight is much, much, harder.  It will burn through ammo and spare parts in a month what the UK may have in stocks to support training and low intensity conflict for year

Surely it's easier from procurement/ modernization perspective, especially if UK indeed intended to send them all and not look back. Yes, they will burn through the spare parts, then cannibalize half of the fleet that will fire all the remaining ammunition. They can then dump them on the Azov Sea beach before putting them on monuments freed by T34s. It still is a preferable option to not having these 2 brigades in this one offensive.
In all seriousness, the only sustainable and meaningful option would be to either send a 1000 M1 or Leopards (of the same version that is), but this is not likely to happen. So making lemonade from what's available seems like the second best option here, doesn't it?

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Once again, do not simply dump hardware on the UA, it will create a total mess. Create complete units and formations that can do the right job at the right time.

But the argument is for doing precisely that. An odd squadron is a silly idea. A full brigade or two, with all the supporting equipment and whatnot can do exactly what you suggest, even if it will be only able to keep in the field for one or two operations.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Huba

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So if I am reading this right, “Let’s make Ukraine a dumping ground for a bunch of equipment we do not want and can no longer support”?  So how is Ukraine going to support them if the UK does not think they can?

Well, we have been supporting somehow old AT-105 Saxons, bought in 2014. Most of them were in service even in 2022...

[Twisk]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

But the argument is for doing precisely that. An odd squadron is a silly idea. A full brigade or two, with all the supporting equipment and whatnot can do exactly what you suggest, even if it will be only able to keep in the field for one or two operations.

I think a decent question is what is Ukraine's manpower? Last I read they had more men ready to take a role than they had roles to give.

If Ukraine has more slack in their system then this idea of expendable force for maybe one big attack seems not so bad. Send extra men to train on these tanks and they will fight one or two operation before losing their capabilities. But is use of Ukraine system that wouldn't be utilized otherwise. And so far it is clear that Russia is no longer capable of regaining territory lost to Ukraine.

But at same time I think Capt. makes very good points about what if Ukraine lacks slack in the system? If these systems add more weight than Ukraine can sustain then it is a bad idea and is better give them something that does not break the back of their combat system.

 

 

------------------------

So far this winter I think the Ukraine strategy has become more clear though. Unless I have missed something Ukraine has made no large attack. So focus seems to be on exhausting Russian system through precision strike/raid/taking hits (Soledar is lost but Russian cost must be high). Then once system is fully exhausted make a strike that takes advantage of that exhaustion.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Twisk

[Huba]

15 minutes ago, Twisk said:

I think a decent question is what is Ukraine's manpower? Last I read they had more men ready to take a role than they had roles to give.

If Ukraine has more slack in their system then this idea of expendable force for maybe one big attack seems not so bad. Send extra men to train on these tanks and they will fight one or two operation before losing their capabilities. But is use of Ukraine system that wouldn't be utilized otherwise. And so far it is clear that Russia is no longer capable of regaining territory lost to Ukraine.

But at same time I think Capt. makes very good points about what if Ukraine lacks slack in the system? If these systems add more weight than Ukraine can sustain then it is a bad idea and is better give them something that does not break the back of their combat system.

Ukraine surely is not lacking untrained manpower, the training and equipping part seems to be the bottleneck in their force generation ability. And this an argument FOR sending the variety of existing systems - Brits can train Ukrainians on the Challenger, Italians on Ariete, French on Leclerc. They can't help much with training for Leo or M1. Why not plug into this training potential? 
The same goes for spare parts and ammunition. There's finite amount of spares for Leo2 available, and production speed is laughable. If we only send these, we'll be burning through them faster than if we also send the "weirdos". To a lesser degree it is also true for ammunition (for example, I'm not sure if Leo2 can use all theFrench ammo for the 120mm GIAT gun?). It will be harder to sort through all of that logistically, but this Rubicon was crossed a long, long time ago.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Huba

[FancyCat]

If I were Ukraine, I cannot assume Western support will last or extend years. Every piece of equipment that reaches Ukraine is something the West can't get cold feet on. (Sorry, western track records on supporting is not great, it's just natural for Ukraine to ask for whatever it can immediately)

Also, personally I remain cautious of Russia being close to collapse. Sure, if Ukraine had the means to exploit a near collapse to rout the Russians, but they don't.

[FancyCat]

Wow, despite 70 percent of the country polled as worried and wishing to not supply Ukraine, the Bulgarian government in power in the early part of the war provided essential aid to Ukraine and was voted out of power partly due to that. Note, despite their fall, Bulgaria's parliament voted to allow exports of military aid to Ukraine. I'm not bashing anyone, but I'm just pointing out that they placed Ukraine ahead of domestic concerns.

Of course U.S and British money is a powerful factor, but note that Russian money exists too and was not enough to keep Bulgaria from supplying Ukraine luckily.

Quote

“We estimate that about a third of the ammunition needed by the Ukrainian army in the early phase of the war came from Bulgaria,” Petkov told WELT.  Just as sensitively, the diesel that Bulgaria supplied to Ukraine was processed from Russian crude oil at a Black Sea refinery, which at the time belonged to the Russian company Lukoil. “Bulgaria became one of the largest exporters of diesel to Ukraine and at times covered 40 percent of Ukraine’s needs,” former Finance Minister Vassilev told WELT.  The government in Kyiv confirmed that version of events. Kuleba told WELT his country was in danger of running out of ammunition last April. “We knew that Bulgarian warehouses had large quantities of the ammunition needed so President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy sent me to obtain the necessary material,” Kuleba said.

Reprisals from Russia:

Quote

Starting as early as May, Moscow bombarded his country with cyberattacks, Petkov said. These hit the power supply and post offices, and at times pensions for civil servants could not be paid.  Moscow also tried to bribe deputies and infiltrate the authorities. Between March and June, Bulgaria expelled some 70 staff from the Russian embassy in Sofia for spying.  Moscow knew Bulgaria was the EU country most dependent on Russian gas before the war and decided to make an example of it.  As early as April 27, Gazprom chose Bulgaria as the first EU country where it would sever gas exports. But Sofia did not relent. Within 24 hours, Prime Minister Petkov presented a solution that would allow Bulgaria’s nearly 7 million inhabitants to get by without gas from Russia. He organized two tankers of liquefied natural gas from the United States — at the same price per cubic meter as Gazprom was charging.

 

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Wow, despite 70 percent of the country polled as worried and wishing to not supply Ukraine, the Bulgarian government in power in the early part of the war provided essential aid to Ukraine and was voted out of power partly due to that. Note, despite their fall, Bulgaria's parliament voted to allow exports of military aid to Ukraine. I'm not bashing anyone, but I'm just pointing out that they placed Ukraine ahead of domestic concerns.

Of course U.S and British money is a powerful factor, but note that Russian money exists too and was not enough to keep Bulgaria from supplying Ukraine luckily.

Reprisals from Russia:

 

And that former Bulgarian prime minister needs to get a job in Brussels. The EU needs to both reward, and be informed by, people willing to make hard calls. If only Scholz had a tenth of the spine...

[Zeleban]

 

Mashovets posted a fragment of a trophy manual  2022 on organizing combat operations of a platoon-company in a city, in a forest. He claims that at present the Russians are fighting according to this manual. Very curious material, unfortunately without translation. I hope to see a translation of this manual soon.

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/395?single

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/405

[Butschi]

24 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I'm not bashing anyone, but I'm just pointing out that they placed Ukraine ahead of domestic concerns.

And I'm certainly not defending anyone but let me in turn point out that placing a another country ahead of domestic concerns is not by default a good thing. Had the situation been reversed, i.e. 70% in favour of helping Ukraine and the government siding with Moscow you would not have commented in such a positive way.

[Butschi]

21 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If only Scholz had a tenth of the spine...

Be honest, you don't want Scholz to have the spine. Because that could very well mean that, despite all the national and international pressure, he decides against giving tanks to Ukraine. What annoys me is that he doesn't have the spine to actually make a decision and stand by it no matter what it is.

[Kraft]

Not sure what to make of this

"We are looking for a Hellfire missile gunner operator with over 500 flight hours. Send applications for this and other military specialties via @terbat_bot

Send honor - horror to slaves!"

[FancyCat]

14 minutes ago, Butschi said:

And I'm certainly not defending anyone but let me in turn point out that placing a another country ahead of domestic concerns is not by default a good thing. Had the situation been reversed, i.e. 70% in favour of helping Ukraine and the government siding with Moscow you would not have commented in such a positive way.

Doing the right thing morally is supporting Ukraine. Of course if someone supports Russia, I would condemn it. (In general)

11 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Be honest, you don't want Scholz to have the spine. Because that could very well mean that, despite all the national and international pressure, he decides against giving tanks to Ukraine. What annoys me is that he doesn't have the spine to actually make a decision and stand by it no matter what it is.

I'm not Dan/california but of course I want Scholz to have a spine cause if he doesn't want to send tanks and stated it with spine and refused to back down, he would be bombarded domestically and internationally, none the least for the falseness of his words supporting Ukraine mismatching with his actions.

Fact of the matter is history has shown Scholz's denials of aid to Ukraine is not meshed in any real inability to proceed, just inability to step forward alone. Which just makes him look weak. Of course anyone wants him to gain a spine, cause every decision made already has fallen on Ukraine's side in the end.

Edited January 18, 2023 by FancyCat

[FancyCat]

The worse part of Scholz in my opinion, is that these are self-inflicted wounds. End of the day, Germany is providing what Ukraine needs. Germany, Scholz has not indicated he's supportive of Russia in speech or actions. It's just announcing support for Ukraine in a very weak mannered manner. Just do what Macron and "go first". It's not even first, if truly NATO has been prepping for a unified tank deployment to Ukraine. Just be first to the microphone. Christ. It's not hard. What sort of domestic blowback could possibly result from announcing something like a week before if the intent was present for it in the first place?!

 

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Be honest, you don't want Scholz to have the spine. Because that could very well mean that, despite all the national and international pressure, he decides against giving tanks to Ukraine. What annoys me is that he doesn't have the spine to actually make a decision and stand by it no matter what it is.

Fair.

[Butschi]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Doing the right thing morally is supporting Ukraine. Of course if someone supports Russia, I would condemn it. (In general)

Fair enough and I read your comment in that way. I just wanted to point out that I don't really believe that, in your eyes, the positive thing they did was to go against their people but to help Ukraine.

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

cause if he doesn't want to send tanks and stated it with spine and refused to back down, he would be bombarded domestically and internationally, none the least for the falseness of his words supporting Ukraine mismatching with his actions

Nevertheless, spine it would be and if he actually had the spine in that case he wouldn't care about being bombarded with criticism. And that's the point. Spine doesn't mean someone decides "in the right way". It just means that he/she won't be swayed by what others think.

[Zeleban]

 

In the introduction, attention is paid to the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in defense. In particular, he notes that when building a defense, Ukrainians widely use not only quadrocopters, but also mini cameras mounted on buildings and trees, with the help of which they control approaches to positions. At night, only the crew on duty remains in position, while the rest of the forces rest 500 meters in the rear, ready to move into position in the event of an attack

[FancyCat]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Nevertheless, spine it would be and if he actually had the spine in that case he wouldn't care about being bombarded with criticism. And that's the point. Spine doesn't mean someone decides "in the right way". It just means that he/she won't be swayed by what others think.

I don't assign "spine" with a boolean value, especially not to politicians, which are universally defined as loose, shifting slime.

[FancyCat]

Interesting. Not sure if possible or true but someone should crack open those tanks. Maybe some psyops but I know nothing about this opposition paper.

 

[Lethaface]

34 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Doing the right thing morally is supporting Ukraine. Of course if someone supports Russia, I would condemn it. (In general)

Against domestic interests? In a democracy not necessarily a wise idea. But luckily it's not a zero sum game in most instances.

[Zeleban]

1. In the Starobelsk direction, the command of the enemy troops is taking a number of steps aimed at optimizing the operational formation of its troops (Group of Forces "West"), as well as increasing the level of efficiency of the actions of its units and subunits, in the course of attacking / defensive operations in the indicated direction.

 

In particular:

- The command post of the 20th Combined Arms Army (CAA) of the Western Military District is moving from the area of the village of Rogovoye and is deploying in the area of the villages of Danilovka - Novoderkul, Lugansk region. It is obvious that the enemy is striving to ensure the stability and continuity of command and control under the conditions of the quite likely implementation of effective fire impact at his command posts with long-range weapons of the Hymars MLRS type ... by increasing the distance of their location from the line of combat collision.

 

Probably, the controls of the 1st Guards tank army will be moved to the old location of the command post of the 20th SAA. , which carry out operational control of a certain set of troops of this army, which today operates in the Starobelsk direction.

- In turn, the 252nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division, as well as the 488th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of this army, begin to regroup their BTGr / reinforced battalions (up to 4-5th BTGr) from the operational-tactical reserve of the army to "first" line". By all indications, this tactical group will most likely be used in the Svatovo area, or in the Chervonopopovka area ... In all likelihood, they will again be sent to "take Makeevka" ...

- In the same direction, the same "trained reserves" from the 2nd Motor Rifle Division of the enemy's 1st Guards Tank Army "surfaced", which were being prepared for several months at the Belarusian training grounds ... and loaded into the echelons of which, "observed" Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR MOU) in Belarus last week ... We (the IS group) have already discovered their concentration in the Pokrovsky area in the Kupyansky direction (they obviously got there through Troitskoye). At least the advance groups of units of this division are already there ...

In addition, a little to the south (in the area of the northern outskirts of Kolomyychikha, the 5th troop BARS of the same army was concentrated in order to strengthen the units of the 423rd MRR of the 4th TD of this army, which continue to defend in the direction of Stelmahovka - Svatovo).

I don’t think that the command of the enemy troops considers the situation in the Svatovo area and in the Oskol sector, which adjoins the border of Ukraine, to be so critical for itself that it is trying to create a separate tactical group of 6-7 reinforced battalions separately for this direction to Nizhnyaya Duvanka.

Most likely, this is all in transit going south. In the end, regular attempts by several reinforced companies of the 9th MRR of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps, which, with regularity worthy of another use, try to unsuccessfully attack, almost non-stop, the forward positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the directions of Kuzemovka - Novoselovskoye and Kuzemovka - Stelmakhovka is enough for now to "fetter" the Ukrainian troops on this sector of the front.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

It still is a preferable option to not having these 2 brigades in this one offensive.
In all seriousness, the only sustainable and meaningful option would be to either send a 1000 M1 or Leopards (of the same version that is), but this is not likely to happen. So making lemonade from what's available seems like the second best option here, doesn't it?

Man and we take a lot of flak for "not understanding Europeans".  So where do you think western will to continue to push money into this war will go if we all send in 2 Bdes and they are done in a single op?  I mean it had better be the last one because the steady stream of burning/cannibalized/abandoned western equipment is going to do absolutely zero good things for sustaining support for this war in the west.  It will be ammunition for the vocal minority that do not support this war at all, and moreover they all think it is unwinnable....heading into an election year.

The second best option could end up being the worst one at that point as the other equipment the UA really needs might just well get thrown out with the bathwater.  So someone had better be damned well convinced that those 2 Bdes on that "one op" are going to win this thing before we spend all the effort to build them.

And here is another cynical spin just waiting to happen.  The UA arguably has 4 strategic objectives right now:

1.  Defeat the RA and set conditions for and end for however, wherever this thing ends, in Ukraine favour.

2. Get ready for the shenanigans that will likely follow post war as Russia, being the pissy bunch that they are, go back to subversive warfare or whatever.  So lash up NS/ND.

3. Support political objectives of reconstruction and reinforcing relationships with the west.

4.  Create and sustain a military that can provide effective deterrence and be ready for the next war.

So here is the thing about #4 - I think it is brilliant to grab as much as they can while we still see them on the national news every morning.  Westerners have a serious attention problem and we will forget about Ukraine about 15 mins after the ceasefire - that is for those who are actually paying attention in the first place.  We will toss some loose change into boxes at Xmas time to "support Ukraine relief" but mostly we will get back to our lives, especially here about 9 time zones away.  So frankly I think the Ukrainian CHOD making long asks - which is not disingenuous as all of this kit can and will be used in this war, because he is likely also hedging his bets that western support turns into a drip once the war is over.  It might not, but no one can guarantee it.  Smart, damn smart.

But.  Those that oppose this war over here, and either implicitly or explicitly support Russia are going to make as much hay out of any overreach - they already are.  So this is not simply "lets all dump all the guns on Ukraine" because the pushback and blowback is not insignificant.  At some point the mainstream are going to call BS, as we navigate a recession, if they get really turned off, Ukraine could be screwed when it comes time for reconstruction, so this is a more delicate operation than a lot of people think.  

[Zeleban]

2. However, more interesting things happen to the south of the Svatovo region. Trying to continue attacking the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of the Liman and the Cherny Zerebets River, namely in the directions Ploschanka - Makeevka, Chervonopopovka - Nevskoye and Kremennaya - Dubravnoye, the command of the enemy troops is simultaneously trying to increase this pressure with additional forces and means ... In particular, in the location of the 144th Motor Rifle Division and the 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st CAA arrived the first units of the 331st Airborne Regiment from the 98th Airborne Division.

In this regard, it is worth noting that the units of the 217th Airborne Regiment of the same division, instead of the Liman direction (which would have looked quite logical), "stopped" at the Bakhmut direction. And this is clearly not accidental (there are already units of the 106th Airborne Division and the 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade, which have already "fully" been involved in the battles for Bakhmut and Soledar, along with the Wagner PMC).

 

After all, over the past 2 days, the enemy has been trying to stretch the front of his offensive in the Bakhmut-Soledar region towards the flanks as much as possible, and this requires additional forces and means. Most likely, the build-up of efforts at the expense of airborne battalions is considered by the enemy command to be some kind of "insurance" against a hypothetical failure in the area of Bakhmut and Soledar (the units of both regiments of the division are still in reserve in their respective directions and have not yet been brought into battle ... including, in the direction of Bakhmut).

 

3. And finally... a few short messages.

The enemy, obviously, seeks to increase his combat activity on the islands and in the Dnieper delta. At least in several areas at once, there is an active movement of enemy watercraft, the landing of his small infantry groups in separate areas and islands, the active installation of hidden mine-explosive barriers and traps, and the conduct of almost continuous surveillance and reconnaissance of the right bank of the Dnieper.

In parallel with this, there is an active activity of enemy artillery, leading an almost continuous shelling of the right bank of the Dnieper. According to the most "cautious" estimates, at least 7-8 TGr / battalions of cannon and rocket artillery (mainly on a rotational basis) are involved in this direction for regular shelling, which mainly operate as separate batteries, and more often - as separate fire platoons. A characteristic feature is that they almost do not distinguish between civilian and military targets and objects ... they hit anywhere ..

 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Surely it's easier from procurement/ modernization perspective, especially if UK indeed intended to send them all and not look back. Yes, they will burn through the spare parts, then cannibalize half of the fleet that will fire all the remaining ammunition. They can then dump them on the Azov Sea beach before putting them on monuments freed by T34s. It still is a preferable option to not having these 2 brigades in this one offensive.
In all seriousness, the only sustainable and meaningful option would be to either send a 1000 M1 or Leopards (of the same version that is), but this is not likely to happen. So making lemonade from what's available seems like the second best option here, doesn't it?

But the argument is for doing precisely that. An odd squadron is a silly idea. A full brigade or two, with all the supporting equipment and whatnot can do exactly what you suggest, even if it will be only able to keep in the field for one or two operations.

See below.

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I posted a bit back yesterday.  Do the rest right and sure we can turn Ukraine into a western tank boneyard.  We have written pages on why there is a lot of risk with this idea - training and sustainment.  This strategy of dumping "what we do not need" begs the question, "well what do we need?"

I find the UAs push for these systems 1) a mystery, and 2) very political.  I am not sure about the first one, the UA has about 1000 tanks and 3000 AFV according to graphics being thrown around.  They definitely need support in sustaining that fleet, but I am still not seeing what a bunch of western hardware with potential severe support limitations is going to do exactly.  As to the second, wont even touch it.

Absolutely.  Keeping them in a fight is much, much, harder.  It will burn through ammo and spare parts in a month what the UK may have in stocks to support training and low intensity conflict for years.

Having spent time in military procurement and operational support, if the UK was trending towards dumping these tanks then the ice cube has been shaved down a lot already - I know ours has.  

Once again, do not simply dump hardware on the UA, it will create a total mess. Create complete units and formations that can do the right job at the right time.

In regards to them being worked up as formed units, they would surely ship them to German base where the Bradleys are working up to speed wouldn't they? Unless other Western tanks have already been assigned but not yet announced. Fifty Bradleys and a squadron of challengers starts to sound a like a military useful thing. Especially if a new set starts training the minute the first batch heads to the front.

Allow me to expound a little bit on the idea that the Challengers are a wasting asset that needs to be used. The Challenger, as I understand it, is one of the best tanks in the world at protecting its crews. So using them to crack the shell of the Russian line a critical spot is not the out and out suicide mission that it would be in anything in the T-72/80 family. If SEVERAL challengers got M, or even K killed making the breach that lets lets ~200 improved T-72s, the Bradleys, and every thing else the Ukrainians have that moves, smash through the Russian backfield all the way to the Sea of Azov the Challengers done their job. indeed they would have have done it magnificently. 

27 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Interesting. Not sure if possible or true but someone should crack open those tanks. Maybe some psyops but I know nothing about this opposition paper.

 

I would need to see hard photographic evidence on this one.

Edited January 18, 2023 by dan/california

[Huba]

Boom boom boom  I'd give that much more priority than tanks, that's for sure!

 

 

[Lethaface]

30 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

The worse part of Scholz in my opinion, is that these are self-inflicted wounds. End of the day, Germany is providing what Ukraine needs. Germany, Scholz has not indicated he's supportive of Russia in speech or actions. It's just announcing support for Ukraine in a very weak mannered manner. Just do what Macron and "go first". It's not even first, if truly NATO has been prepping for a unified tank deployment to Ukraine. Just be first to the microphone. Christ. It's not hard. What sort of domestic blowback could possibly result from announcing something like a week before if the intent was present for it in the first place?!

 

That's something which I don't 'understand'. In the end the only thing what matters is what gets delivered, not what's announced or trending on twitter. I'm not a fan of Scholz / some of the German policy stuff because they say and do different things all the time. But that's rather a known symptom of politicians. Which is why i'm not in the Germany bashing; anyone with some knowledge of Germany/Germans knew that war and German participation in war especially with links to the painful history, could predict they wouldn't be first to the microphone. I agree that Germany should take more responsibility also on the terrain of Defense given their weight in Europe, but that's a step-by-step process. In the end Germany is following what the rest is doing, so that's that. Of course I would applaud it if they'd take more initiative, but well I try to keep my expectations in such a way that I'm not often disappointed

My country is 'looking good' with the push for PzH2000 deliveries etc and I'm happy with those things but at the same time our defense is a mess. So equally deserving bashing, probably the same goes for every government in EU.
More trust and support inside the EU wouldn't hurt.