How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

18 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

But....based on what I've read over the past 10 months they've neglected their military and NATO military obligations for years.  Self interest and what could be described as free-loading off the protection of the US and other NATO countries won't be easily forgotten.

True, we didn't spend 2% GDP. But neither did a lot of other NATO members.

https://www.statista.com/chart/14636/defense-expenditures-of-nato-countries/

Singling out Germany here is nonsensical.

[FancyCat]

2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Ukraine... Well, that certainly isn't that easy to answer. The thing is, there is a much stronger case for defending Poland (and I am certain Germany would do that) because if we didn't, NATO is dead and every little country is on its own. Sorry guys but you are making a straw man here, it can't really be that hard to get the difference between Poland and Ukraine in that regard.

What would it cost Germany to give up the Baltics? Finland? Big difference between Poland and the Baltics. Hey, Germany does not have nukes...it would have to rely on France to defend it from nuclear blackmail...see how it goes? We should not deescalate when this conflict has been Putin escalating. Right on time, 

 

 

[Butschi]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

What would it cost Germany to give up the Baltics? Finland? Big difference between Poland and the Baltics.

Do I really have to spell it out for you?

The Baltics and Poland are in NATO. Ukraine is not in NATO.

There. That wasn't so complicated, right?

[FancyCat]

13 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

But in the hands of Russia, who can't compete conventionally and still have delusions of grandeur, blackmail is all they have. So it becomes a stare down to see if one side blinks or hits the red button. So we have to ask, is Ukraine the West's red line for this stare down? If not where? Poland, Germany etc..? At some point the stare down has to take place since (again) all Russia has is nuclear blackmail. 

Exactly, better to have the stare down over Ukraine, where NATO is not obligated to go to bat in blood and potentially nuclear exchange. Because, Europe can not rely on the U.S to defend NATO indefinitely and personally, I am unsure if the rest of NATO is able to withstand not breaking apart vs Russia. We shouldn't let Russia test our red lines. 

1 minute ago, Butschi said:

Do I really have to spell it out for you?

The Baltics and Poland are in NATO. Ukraine is not in NATO.

There. That wasn't so complicated, right?

See above. Why let Russia test the red lines? We know Russia's red lines want to be Crimea and the Donbas. We have slack to push them on that. Sorry, I don't believe Germany or France will defend the Baltics. I don't think it can be assured that the U.S will stay in NATO either, not with increasing isolationism at home over the long term. But we are nearing going around in circles, so again I will refrain from replying.  

[Blazing 88's]

US finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-system-ukraine/index.html

[Battlefront.com]

Guys, this Germany thing is getting to be tedious.  Germany waffling and not delivering a particular weapons system might be frustrating, but it is well within their rights to do so *AND* it has no meaningful impact on this war.  Germany could cease supply Ukraine with anything new and it wouldn't make a difference to the Big Picture.  Likewise, Germany could provide a fleet of Leo2s tomorrow and that also wouldn't make a difference to the Big Picture.  So let's stop with the nonsense that the entire war depends on what Germany does or doesn't do.  It's nonsense.

Steve

[Butschi]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Exactly, better to have the stare down over Ukraine, where NATO is not obligated to go to bat in blood and potentially nuclear exchange.

And that is why we support Ukraine. But if as you say yourself, we want to avoid a potential nuclear exchange, there are limits to what we can do.

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Because, Europe can not rely on the U.S to defend NATO indefinitely

True. And let's be honest neither the US nor any other country is in NATO out of kindness but because we all think it is in our best interest. And even the US have yet to prove they would actually go to war for their allies if push comes to shove. I don't see why you would take that for granted but doubt other countries.

 

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Why let Russia test the red lines?

Because NATO is a defensive alliance and has exactly one red line: NATO territory. There isn't even really a mechanism how NATO as a whole would support Ukraine militarily if it wasn't to be just something each country does voluntarily.

Edited December 13, 2022 by Butschi

[Butschi]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Guys, this Germany thing is getting to be tedious.  Germany waffling and not delivering a particular weapons system might be frustrating, but it is well within their rights to do so *AND* it has no meaningful impact on this war.  Germany could cease supply Ukraine with anything new and it wouldn't make a difference to the Big Picture.  Likewise, Germany could provide a fleet of Leo2s tomorrow and that also wouldn't make a difference to the Big Picture.  So let's stop with the nonsense that the entire war depends on what Germany does or doesn't do.  It's nonsense.

Steve

Yeah, I guess I should just make a note in my calendar that there is "Germany Bashing Day" once a month and not get upset over it each and every time. I'm not even much of a patriot for that matter and I absolutely hate feeling obliged to defend Scholz...

Edited December 13, 2022 by Butschi

[FancyCat]

5 minutes ago, Blazing 88's said:

US finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-system-ukraine/index.html

Now, this should relieve most pressure for long range missiles, as most public arguments for it were focused on stopping the source of the long range attacks on Ukraine. 

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[FancyCat]

 

I'm pleased to see the ICRC (i assume its them) is monitoring Ukrainian POW camps. Considering this is a Russian broadcast, I think we can confidently confirm it as evidence of proper treatment of Russian PoWs is occurring and being monitored at least at this particular camp. Hopefully, a decent number of Russians caught the broadcast live. 

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

3.  Perhaps UA can do without the long range missiles for now. Their enemies seem to be doing quite a good job on themselves....

Alas, we have the same problem, which already named "trench COVID". 

About Syberian frosts, I once heard a talks of two men, one told to his friend how his brother from Yakutiya came to visit him to Kyiv and since some time has cought a cold. He told, that winter in Ukraine for him was much more worse, than in Syberia! Because despite -30 is usual for them, and they almost didn't get sick, because their frost has low humidity, but in Ukraine usual -5...-10 with 80...90 % humidity easily can put you to bed  

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

I'm in my 60s and I missed Vietnam by years. Any Vietnam vets these days are 70 at least, most are older. A 70 year old would have just made it before the withdrawal.

Dave

My dad is 70+, hill walks every week and has had a very active, outdoors life (dairy farmer). He can keep pace cross-country with my older brother, who himself is a goddamn Longshanks. Heart like an ox. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Alas, we have the same problem, which already named "trench COVID". 

About Syberian frosts, I once heard a talks of two men, one told to his friend how his brother from Yakutiya came to visit him to Kyiv and since some time has cought a cold. He told, that winter in Ukraine for him was much more worse, than in Syberia! Because despite -30 is usual for them, and they almost didn't get sick, because their frost has low humidity, but in Ukraine usual -5...-10 with 80...90 % humidity easily can put you to bed  

Irish winters are wet and cold, and bloody miserable. For all that Canada's winters go on for WAY, JUST WAY TOO ****ING LONG I'll still take their dry cold over freeze/thaw wet, windy, PITA weather every time.

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Irish winters are wet and cold, and bloody miserable.

I can imagine the island, surrounded by not warm sea in winter %) Though, Golfstream maybe makes winter more soft, but anyway wet winter is nastily

[Haiduk]

17 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Im surprised.... 128th are no second tier, turkey-stuffing type unit.

The time of rotation always dangerous. When one unit already in thought in the rear and other is just coming to positions and doedn't fully understand what's goung on here. As examples - in such way DPR captured positions near Opytne and Vodiane near Donetsk airport about month ago and UKR troops made surprise offensive at the beginning of Octoeber in Zolota Balka area in Kherson oblast in the time of Russian units rotation  

Edited December 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Now, this should relieve most pressure for long range missiles, as most public arguments for it were focused on stopping the source of the long range attacks on Ukraine. 

I'd argue this is far more important than ATACAMS (not getting at you FC, just noting).

• Patriot is far, far more advanced, complex and demanding than UKRs soviet era systems. Getting Patriot is a real proof of just how much UKR AAD has impressed the Pentagon.
• Patriot has never been tested against an opponent nominally capable of attacking it from the air. This will be the acid test.
• Patriot is one of US's flagship systems that only confirmed and strategically vital allies get,.
• Poland & Romania have Patriot, so giving it to Ukraine implies the three AAD systems talking to each other, now and post-war, creating a strategically relevant band of mutually reinforcing and coordinating AAD, using the same tech and gear. This gives huge operational depth and great tactical flexibility.
• Europe would now have a continuous system of systems, of the same tech and training, all facing the Russian border.
• Patriot ranges 250km, about the distance from Kharkiv to Donetsk. 
• A single Patriot battalion could defend Ukraine east of the Dniper, with reserve west of the river.
• With this system in place, Rus will have definitely lost any advantage in the air, and will never regain it. 
• It plays to proven UKR ability with their existing AAD systems, what theyve managed to achieve has been remarkable and a true testament to their professional ability, technical level and organisational abilty.

I'd expect Patriot set up and running in Ukraine at April 2023, absolute earliest.

To me, Patriot is the next HIMARS inflection point in UKRs ability to both defend and go on the attack.

I'm really, really curious about Patriot's survivablity on a modern, rapidly evolving, near-peer conflict. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I can imagine the island, surrounded by not warm sea in winter %) Though, Golfstream maybe makes winter more soft, but anyway wet winter is nastily

Yep, it's the gulf stream that keeps us "mild" - i.e. bloody wet. Plus there's no central spine of mountains so rain just wends its merry ****ing way across the island with nary an obstruction greater than trees in the way. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The time of rotation always dangerous. When one unit already in thought in the rear and other is just coming to positions and doedn't fully understand what's goung on here. As examples - in such way DPR captured positions near Opytne and Vodiane near Donetsk airport about month ago and UKR troops mad surprise offensive at the beginning of Octoeber in Zolota Balka area in Kherson oblast in the time of Russian units rotation  

Yah, it cuts both ways.

[Haiduk]

15 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

By this I mean the mobiks. 

I wouldn't underestimate "mobiks" and consider them as 100 % untrained unmotivated canon fodder. Of course there are many examples when people, not serving in army were conscripted, but still, enough large part of mobilized are either former conscript servicemen or former contractors. And even if this men from Russian deep assholes, they have the same capabilities of survival out of "zone of comfort" like our 40+ mobilized, about which I wrote some time ago. Put him in conditions "win or die" and he will try to survive and win.

Many of mobiks have been going at war either in high patriotic mood or just with calm fatalism "authorities ordered, so I must go". All problems of Russian mobilization is not people don't want to go at war, but only in not enough number of training centers, officers and equipment. Most of problem with "mobiks" by words of Russian milbloggers are in Western Military District. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

AS AN ASIDE:

I'm developing a podcast that will focus on Film/TV technical discussions (how to shoot a car commercial, how to film food, etc).

As preparation for that I want to first "find my voice" - my tone, pace, style, etc. To that end I'm going do my own private audio recordings of other peoples various updates and articles on the war, e.g. the ISW's daily assessments, or RUSI's preliminary lessons from the war, etc.

I've gotten very used to podcasts and listening while I do other things, and would love something like that from ISW or UK MoD. Alas no, so here's me taking a fumbling stab at my own idea of what that would be.

I'll post for free on Substack, link back to the articles, credit etc. 

I'm calling it "The Spoken War", i.e. a play on "the spoken word".  It might go somewhere, we'll see.

If you're interested in this, let me know in this poll here:

https://8f5ev5a2os9.typeform.com/to/w0UpMiLv

or PM me.

Edited December 13, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

34 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Alas, we have the same problem, which already named "trench COVID". 

About Syberian frosts, I once heard a talks of two men, one told to his friend how his brother from Yakutiya came to visit him to Kyiv and since some time has cought a cold. He told, that winter in Ukraine for him was much more worse, than in Syberia! Because despite -30 is usual for them, and they almost didn't get sick, because their frost has low humidity, but in Ukraine usual -5...-10 with 80...90 % humidity easily can put you to bed  

I can attest to this!  I live in the foothills of small mountains where our air is below 20% humidity.  It gets to -20c regularly, and it isn't a problem.  But when I go to the Atlantic coast, where it is much warmer, I feel like someone is slashing my face with a dull butcher's knife.  No thanks

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I wouldn't underestimate "mobiks" and consider them as 100 % untrained unmotivated canon fodder. Of course there are many examples when people, not serving in army were conscripted, but still, enough large part of mobilized are either former conscript servicemen or former contractors. And even if this men from Russian deep assholes, they have the same capabilities of survival out of "zone of comfort" like our 40+ mobilized, about which I wrote some time ago. 

Many of mobiks have been going at war either in high patriotic mood or just with calm fatalism "authorities ordered, so I must go". All problems of Russian mobilization is not people don't want to go at war, but only in not enough number of training center, officers and equipment. Most of problem with "mobiks" by words of Russian milbloggers are in Western Military District. 

Yes, this is a good point to keep reminding us about.  For sure some of the mobiks are being used as effective individual replacements, so there is that as well.  We've talked about the strange motivation problems where guys are grabbed, dumped in crappy barracks, given poor equipment, and then sent to the front.  Yet they don't complain about how they are treated, just that they should be given training and better equipment.  Nobody in the West, I think, can appreciate this sort of mindset properly.  I know I can't!

Steve

[G.I. Joe]

37 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Irish winters are wet and cold, and bloody miserable. For all that Canada's winters go on for WAY, JUST WAY TOO ****ING LONG I'll still take their dry cold over freeze/thaw wet, windy, PITA weather every time.

My wife is originally from Ontario and she has said many times that cold/flu season seems worse out here and people are a lot more serious about getting their flu shots in BC. Here on the BC coast our winters are pretty similar to Ireland or Ukraine based on what I gather and what you and Haiduk have just mentioned - back and forth freeze/thaw and very wet.

[Kinophile]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, this is a good point to keep reminding us about.  For sure some of the mobiks are being used as effective individual replacements, so there is that as well.  We've talked about the strange motivation problems where guys are grabbed, dumped in crappy barracks, given poor equipment, and then sent to the front.  Yet they don't complain about how they are treated, just that they should be given training and better equipment.  Nobody in the West, I think, can appreciate this sort of mindset properly.  I know I can't!

Steve

Also, critically, the'yre not complaining about killing Ukrainians in Ukraine, just that they are not being properly trained and equipped to do it right. So the social morale and agreement with the Government line is still very much intact. They buy into Putins garbage and are perfectly OK with attacking an innocent population.

Mobiks in the training system get pissed off and leave when they're not housed, fed or paid properly. I've seen absolutely nothing about any of them saying "No I dont Want To Kill Ukrainians In Their Own Land". Just - feed me, drill me, point me to the front line.

Good riddance.

Edited December 13, 2022 by Kinophile