How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

I'm pleased to know that it's only about 1/3rd out of action at any one time.  That's pretty efficient, I think, given the distances the weapons need to travel from the front to Poland and back again.

Steve

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm pleased to know that it's only about 1/3rd out of action at any one time.  That's pretty efficient, I think, given the distances the weapons need to travel from the front to Poland and back again.

Steve

One has to wonder how bad the out-of-battle rate the RA is suffering right now.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Next example of Russian losses near Bakhmut

Looks like they spooked a lot of the defenders out of their trenches, caught them during a rotation, or maybe saw that they were goofing off and hit them hard.  I didn't count the bodies, but I'd say it was easily two dozen.  Many were still in their foxholes/trenches, so perhaps they were wounded in the open and slid into cover and died there.

A point made very clear in these drone bomber videos is how less effective trenches and foxholes are now that this battlefield menace is around.  Traditionally the only way you could be assured of causing casualties was by throwing a LOT of artillery at a fairly small piece of ground.  Even then the most likely effect was to shock the enemy, not necessarily kill them.  To do that required an enormous amount of concentrated shelling.  Now?  Send a bomber over and make precision strikes with an otherwise imprecise munition.

This reminds me of Grant's famous siege of Vicksburg where he deliberately employed very large mortars to toss rounds into the defenses at random locations and random times of day.  Especially overnight.  The purpose wasn't to cause physical harm, but to cause mental harm.  Including interrupting sleep.  The defenders attested that it was very effective.  Drone bombers have the same sort of psychological impact if used in similar way.

In a sense these drone bombers are an entirely new type of weapon.  It uses an incredibly precise platform (the drone), but a very imprecise munition.  So instead of having a Precision Guided Munition, you have a sorta "Precision Deployed Munition".  This implies the means of getting the munition on target is precise, but the munition itself is unguided.

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Though, one UKR civil volunteer, who supplies soldiers there has written in Twitter that he knew level of UKR casualties around Bakhmut for all time of battle already exceeded losses of Rubizhe, Siverodonetsk and Lysychansk taken together and almost near the total losses of UKR troops in ATO for 8 years - officially MoD claimed 2665 KIA for 2014- Jan 2021 (w/o other force structures, it can be about 600-700 more).

I wonder if the Ukrainian casualty rates have diminished lately.  I hope so, because even if this volunteer is 1/2 correct that is still a lot of casualties to suffer for holding an unimportant piece of terrain.  Though the obvious reason to stay and fight there is it's a good way to kill Russians.  If Ukraine has lost 2000 KIA there, as the volunteer thinks, then the Russians have likely lost 6000 to 10,000.  It's horrible to think of Human lives in terms of "favorable ratios", but that is what war comes down to.

Steve

[cyrano01]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Left - WWI photos, right - Bakhmut, present days

 

I was just thinking that the Bakhmut pictures looked more like the Ypres Salient than anywhere else. Is the area especially wet or with a high water table?

[Haiduk]

Couple of Russian milbloggers articles about backwardness of Russian artillery in training and equipment in Rob Lee thread

 

Briefly:

- Syria war was a building of new artillery fire control system  - before it forward observers have to sit in front trench and transmit targeting via wire phone TA-57 to HQ. In Syria, forward observers and FACs were moved to HQs and generals observed battlefield from TV panels.

- warfare in Syria showed poor training of artillery crews - usage of usual ammunition had +/- 300 m accuracy and this considered as usual thing. And if then stationary targets at last could be hit, that hitting of moving targets turned out "mission impossible"

- Syria war resqued guided ammo like Krasnopol and Kitolov - before they guided from the ground with old bulky laser designators and because of this results were not very good, so army was ready to reject from this ammunition and only appearance of Orlan-30 UAVs in 2017 with laser designators turned out artillery guns in "sniper rifles"

- Syrian and Karabakh experience wasn't analized and experience of local conflicts didn't work in "SMO" - Orlan-10 and Orlan-30 ran out too fast and forward observers again moved back to trenches, so a lack of Orlans caused a lack of guided shells usage.

- Russia now is suffering a lack not only of UAVs for guiding, but of guided ammo Krasnopol and Kitolov themselves

- Russia didn't design anything equal to 777 or Caesar 

- many of artillery units went at war 24th Feb, having only artillery compasses and binocilars. There was a lack or even absence of UAVs, so sometime forward observers were forced to climb on trees to adjust fire

- Russia had nohing even similar to UKR "Kropyva" or other battlefield information system. Only in single cases Russians used "Offlinemaps" service, were coordinates were present

- in Russian arty training centers personnel is continuing to train by old Soviet methods, so when new formed artillery brigade arrived to front, commander directed forward observers to the trenches with classical equipment - arty compass and binocular. Observers also had Mavic, but nobody of them knew how to use it and they took it only because commander oredered "to take all equipment"

- lack of proper fire ajustment caused firing of echelones of shells (aka the wall of fire) with bad effectiveness and caused lack of ammunition now.    

- Personnel has poor training with ajusting fire and tarheting for arty with PSNR ground radars and new-developed 1L271 "Aistyonok" (close analog AN/TPQ-48) light counter-battery radar, blogger says he didn't know lucky examples

Edited November 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Today's morning somethig hit cottadge area in Dnipro city. Reportedly this was hypersonic Kinzhal missile. Several houses destroyed, 7 people wounded. It's remains only to guess what was depicted on old Russian maps for this place to spent rare missile for such target...

 

[Haiduk]

UKR SPG-9 on buggy

[Haiduk]

54 minutes ago, cyrano01 said:

I was just thinking that the Bakhmut pictures looked more like the Ypres Salient than anywhere else. Is the area especially wet or with a high water table?

Donbas ground in many places very tough to dig in. Probably because of this it slower absorbs the water and continous rains cause such "basins" in trenches. Also in Bakhmut area UKR positions are in more lower land than Russians

Edited November 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Second known destroyed T-90M - Georgian Legion issued a ground footage of this convoy, HIMARSed in September

 

[Haiduk]

Russian tank got direct hit with HE shell from UKR tank, was heavy damaged and abanoned

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

50 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian tank got direct hit with HE shell from UKR tank, was heavy damaged and abanoned

 

Thanks for those Haiduk, always good to see RU losing equipment.  Hopefully soon the ground will freeze and stay frozen so UKR can get back on the offensive.

How's the energy situation for you?  We've all been seeing the satellite images of a dark Ukraine.  And now I see youtube guy Denys Davydov leaving Kyiv. 

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

How's the energy situation for you?  We've all been seeing the satellite images of a dark Ukraine.  And now I see youtube guy Denys Davydov leaving Kyiv. 

Today electicity was turned on from 4:00 to 9:00 and from 13:30 and still present now (20:30) Hot water and heating also turned on. Even more - before a last strike, even if we have electricity by shedule, the streets mostly weren't illuminated. Now I see all so too bright ) But let's see next week, time of Kh-101 %) 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Allegedly three Sea Kings already in Ukraine. UK says theese helicopters only SAR variant, but who knows %). It's unknown we will receive 10 helicopters or theese just reserve crews.

 

 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

Not sure of how credible this is, but even if you divided it by two or three it would be a staggering number.

[Huba]

This is pure gold, it's like they are actively trying to make their troops as miserable as possible.

 

[Yet]

On 11/25/2022 at 8:49 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Very true and I've seen lots of videos what show this sort of response, even before things got cold.  1000 mile stare of veterans who have been "hyper aroused" for too long is a well documented fact.

However, *if* mobiks are being treated as horribly as we believe them to be, then hypothermia may be in the mix to some extent.  At the very least it might predispose a soldier to "freeze" rather than "fight" or "flight".  I'd caution the bloggers making too big a deal out of it, but I'm guessing it is playing a role to some extent.

Steve

well, lack of food, sleep and most of all warmth really reduces your reaction time. By the time you see pink elephants making a call in a telephonebooth on an empty field, you'll need 15 minutes investigation to find out that your grenaded buddy is not really a dancing chocolate-pie. 

next to fight, flee and freeze.. there is just the extremely extended time needed to realize what is actually happening (the absence of acute stress).

Edited November 26, 2022 by Yet
spelling & clarity

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, Yet said:

well, lack of food, sleep and most of all warmth really reduces your reaction time. By the time you see pink elephants making a call in a telephonebooth on an empty field, you'll need 15 minutes investigation to find out that your grenaded buddy is not really dancing chocolate-pie. 

next to fight, flee and freeze.. there is just the extremely extended time needed to realize what is actually happening. 

Add continuous harassing indirect fire, some wounds that go untreated due to lack of medical support and the odd tac UAV pooping HE on your head.  

I have avoided predictions in this war but I will make one here - the RA is really screwed this winter.  Their logistics issues are going to turn into stuff like disease and cold injuries in the winter that their medical system will not be able to deal with. Troops are going to be faced with lighting fires or freezing to death so ISR is going to light them up.  Looking at the weather in Kherson for example - https://weatherspark.com/y/97401/Average-Weather-in-Kherson-Ukraine-Year-Round  And you have the worst possible conditions - cold enough to freeze you to death but also warm enough to get you wet - and then freeze you to death.

Winter warfare is hard - like “wishing you were dead” hard.  It is ridiculous without proper logistical support and regular troop rotations.  Fog eating snow might just turn into ice shattering the RA and the UA driving over their frozen corpses.  If the RA has a division of elite Siberian troops left in the pantry, now would be the time to use them.

[danfrodo]

32 minutes ago, Yet said:

well, lack of food, sleep and most of all warmth really reduces your reaction time. By the time you see pink elephants making a call in a telephonebooth on an empty field, you'll need 15 minutes investigation to find out that your grenaded buddy is not really a dancing chocolate-pie. 

next to fight, flee and freeze.. there is just the extremely extended time needed to realize what is actually happening (the absence of acute stress).

More of this in link below, w really messed up video at the bottom of wagner commander trying to shoot himself but unable to.  Is he hypothermic?  Wounded and hypothermic??

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/26/2138419/-Winter-begins-to-take-its-toll-on-Russia-s-army-in-Ukraine

I knew a guy who did a lot of mountain camping.  One time got caught in unexpected bad weather while out on big hike and started going hypothermic.  He said his judgement was the thing that was wrecked, as he started wanting to do the exact opposite of what he should do in the situation, totally convinced he was correct.  Fortunately someone in his group was still coherent and persuaded them to do the right thing and they all survived. 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Add continuous harassing indirect fire, some wounds that go untreated due to lack of medical support and the odd tac UAV pooping HE on your head.  

I have avoided predictions in this war but I will make one here - the RA is really screwed this winter.  Their logistics issues are going to turn into stuff like disease and cold injuries in the winter that their medical system will not be able to deal with. Troops are going to be faced with lighting fires or freezing to death so ISR is going to light them up.  Looking at the weather in Kherson for example - https://weatherspark.com/y/97401/Average-Weather-in-Kherson-Ukraine-Year-Round  And you have the worst possible conditions - cold enough to freeze you to death but also warm enough to get you wet - and then freeze you to death.

Winter warfare is hard - like “wishing you were dead” hard.  It is ridiculous without proper logistical support and regular troop rotations.  Fog eating snow might just turn into ice shattering the RA and the UA driving over their frozen corpses.  If the RA has a division of elite Siberian troops left in the pantry, now would be the time to use them.

Yeah, well said, TheCapt.  And given that many of these men were simply kidnapped and throw into a horrific, deadly, no escape situation has to be another big factor in all this.

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Donbas ground in many places very tough to dig in. Probably because of this it slower absorbs the water and continous rains cause such "basins" in trenches. Also in Bakhmut area UKR positions are in more lower land than Russians

Famous Ukrainian Chernozemy are extremely fertile type of soil (many farmers around the world would kill for several cm's level of soil of such fertility on their turf), but also heavy and difficult to dig in, very easily turning into extremely sticky, dense mud.

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder if the Ukrainian casualty rates have diminished lately.  I hope so, because even if this volunteer is 1/2 correct that is still a lot of casualties to suffer for holding an unimportant piece of terrain.  Though the obvious reason to stay and fight there is it's a good way to kill Russians.  If Ukraine has lost 2000 KIA there, as the volunteer thinks, then the Russians have likely lost 6000 to 10,000.  It's horrible to think of Human lives in terms of "favorable ratios", but that is what war comes down to.

Steve

Other Ukrainian sources corroborate as well. Lachowski had special interview only about UA lossess in this area- soldiers shared them with him confidentially, so he refused to give details, only descibing them as very, very heavy. One company from unnamed mountain brigade was down to 15 men after withdrawing from Severdonetsk. Meeting platoons and companies reduced to 50% or less state in a month was not unusual in Summer/Fall, and still loosess are high- reportedly some Russians started to learn how to use drones more efficiently than during first phase. It is worth to remember that many of the Wagner soldiers-prisoners we see in these videos are used as decoys, intended to be decimated. Then Ukrainian firing positions are uncovered, so league (as Wagner calls old-guard professionals), drone-guided artillery and tanks can shell them.

Russian version of attrition warfare seems to assume that metrically they can even loose it heavily, but since lives lost are "scums" of society while Ukrainians loose their veterans and volunteers, they are finally on the top. Complete disregard for human life.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Beleg85

[Offshoot]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

This is pure gold, it's like they are actively trying to make their troops as miserable as possible.

 

It's easy to imagine some people in Russia are not happy that their control of supply lines, and therefore their cut, is being bypassed and reduced by volunteer groups "parallel" importing. The thing that keeps the system oiled, corruption, is also the thing that trips them up at every step.

[Huba]

Just now, Offshoot said:

It's easy to imagine some people in Russia are not happy that their control of supply lines, and therefore their cut, is being bypassed and reduced by volunteer groups "parallel" importing. The thing that keeps the system oiled, corruption, is also the thing that trips them up at every step.

And/ or they are really worried about the careless smoking incidents, that drones and night-vision equipment might help facilitate.

[Beleg85]

Video worth to watch. Interview with Ukrainian artillery officer- I remember him giving similar lengthly talk just before Severdonetsk battles started.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV_XD4R7C3w

[Offshoot]

Are the Russians learning or getting desperate?

 

[Huba]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Add continuous harassing indirect fire, some wounds that go untreated due to lack of medical support and the odd tac UAV pooping HE on your head.  

I have avoided predictions in this war but I will make one here - the RA is really screwed this winter.  Their logistics issues are going to turn into stuff like disease and cold injuries in the winter that their medical system will not be able to deal with. Troops are going to be faced with lighting fires or freezing to death so ISR is going to light them up.  Looking at the weather in Kherson for example - https://weatherspark.com/y/97401/Average-Weather-in-Kherson-Ukraine-Year-Round  And you have the worst possible conditions - cold enough to freeze you to death but also warm enough to get you wet - and then freeze you to death.

Winter warfare is hard - like “wishing you were dead” hard.  It is ridiculous without proper logistical support and regular troop rotations.  Fog eating snow might just turn into ice shattering the RA and the UA driving over their frozen corpses.  If the RA has a division of elite Siberian troops left in the pantry, now would be the time to use them.

Sorry if this was already discussed (I admit to skipping a bit of the cold weather discussion), but a very important difference to previous wars that comes to mind is the abundance of thermal imaging devices, that will make many cold weather survival techniques very risky. Lighting a fire in a trench somewhere might not be an option whatsoever, I guess that even doing it underground in a stove will make the smoke stack stick out like a sore thumb and attract artillery. 
What would be solution to that, except intensively rotating the first line troops? Perhaps some less intense heat sources like oil heaters? Not having at least the most rudimentary shelter where you can go to warm up for a moment sounds really bad.
On the other hand, self heating field rations must make a lot of change in this circumstances.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Huba