Zenomorph Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think a really interesting question would also be what if Hitler had departed for his everlasting inferno at the height of German power. Say just as the German army was reaching the gates of Stalingrad in the summer of '42. What if the generals had been able to dictate the progression of the war rather than the politicians. I also wonder if, for all of Hitler's evil, if such a scenario would have been preferable. The generals would have surely at least prolonged what may have been inevitable. It would however have given the Nazi's more time to carry on their murdering and pillaging. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 H1nd - why are you arguing with a straw man? I told you what would happen in the hypothetical - the Russians win and win handily. I told you the likely, sensible use the Germans would make of their reserves, what the counters to those uses were, and how the counters trump the uses and win. Again, you just didn't like the answer. Which means you are not trying to honestly speculate, you just want some specific answer that is historical nonsense. Strangely, you won't say what it is. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H1nd Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 H1nd - why are you arguing with a straw man? I told you what would happen in the hypothetical - the Russians win and win handily. I told you the likely, sensible use the Germans would make of their reserves, what the counters to those uses were, and how the counters trump the uses and win. Again, you just didn't like the answer. Which means you are not trying to honestly speculate, you just want some specific answer that is historical nonsense. Strangely, you won't say what it is. Nah, mainly im just offended by your hostile attitude. As if point of your whole existence is to pick people appart here on this forum. I'm not saying that you are such a person in reality but the way you write about these things certainly makes it feel like it for me at least. True I may have gotten carried away a bit in relation to this subject as well. Truth to be told I dont deny your words here a single bit. You are absolutely right in pretty everything you say about this subject about soviet union vs germany and how futile it would be in any case and there is no denying it. Is it productive in any way.. well not really but i'm as equally unwilling to spend any effort to think any finer details to this hypothetical situation. There are certainly ways to think some but why bother. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BletchleyGeek Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sure the Russian army was terribly powerfull by the late 44 but the single most biggest reason why Germany was defeated by 1945 was Hitler. Ofc the German high command was utterly incompetent in opposing his disastrous orders but I think it is well worth the speculation what would have happened had Hitler not been able to give those foolish orders of his. In fact Hitlers persistence on standing ground at all cost is mentioned in almost every page in any history book of ww2. I dont remember the details but one of the main reason why Romania and rest of the south fell so easily was that the German sixth army was once again encircled and annihilated instead of having the German and Romanian troops fall back to defend the naturaly defendable positions along the Romanian border. You got that kind of backwards. 6. Armee was destroyed a second - and final time - because the Romanian army, again Romanian troops were holding its flanks now that's some irony, was in the process of dissolving/changing sides. If I recall correctly, in the two weeks before the start of the Soviet operation against the 6. Armee, a coup d'etat had toppled Antonescu, German attempts at strong-arming the Romanians failed (they got away with that in Hungary) and the Romanian government quickly agreed with an armistice with the Soviet Union. It's perhaps one of the few examples in WW2 where a quickly shifting political situation has an obvious and decisive effect at the operational level (along with the Italian armistice, yet it didn't convey the catastrophe that was the loss of 6. Armee). I'm also left to wonder whether this was the outcome of a well designed strategical-operational plan. I reckon Romanians had been approaching the Soviets for a deal for some time, as yet another sizeable chunk of their Army was sacrificed in the Crimea, and the German collapse west of Dnepr in the Winter of 1943 - Spring of 1944. If anything, the political situation had been quite uneasy for some time. All the Axis allies - Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Finland - tried to get out of the war as the outcome of the late 1943 campaigns sank in. In Romania, the German position held up as long as Antonescu remained in power. In Hungary, Horthy was also toppled, but the close proximity of Hungary to the Reich, allowed the Germans to quell the whole thing before it had untoward consequences. Almost at the same time, a quite big uprising in Slovakia required the deployment of a corps-sized German force, which got tied down for quite some time in combat operations there. The Finnish were also seeking terms with the URSS, but Hitler's political and economic strong-arming tactics managed to delay the inevitable until July: the realization that they just couldn't sustain the kind of losses they suffered as the URSS could devote some attention to them as German power waned. Regarding the original question. I can't be sure how much of a difference would have made for instance, to evacuate AGN rather than leaving it there to rot. If we look at two smaller examples of similar situations like Korsun and Hube's 'mobile pocket', in both cases the Germans managed to extricate most of their personnel, but very little of their equipment. The Germans had time to reorganize that personnel into existing or new units and replace to a great extent the equipment lost, but I wonder if they would have the time and resources to do the same with a similar level of success with the AGN personnel. And the units resulted from that 'reconstruction' process were clearly inferior to the outfits that had been basically destroyed. AGN should have been retreated to a less exposed position well before summer of 1944. As soon as Army Group Centre collapsed - and that happened remarkably quickly, in less than one week - the AGN simply didn't have a right flank any more. In those circumstances, trying to pull back hard and fast to the west would have probably ended up in a disaster, as the Soviets would be fresh and ready for a pursuit battle in optimal weather conditions: the AGN commanders weren't in the same league as Hube was, nor had the same opportunities offered by the weather as he had. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nah, mainly im just offended by your hostile attitude. As if point of your whole existence is to pick people appart here on this forum. I'm not saying that you are such a person in reality but the way you write about these things certainly makes it feel like it for me at least. True I may have gotten carried away a bit in relation to this subject as well. Truth to be told I dont deny your words here a single bit. You are absolutely right in pretty everything you say about this subject about soviet union vs germany and how futile it would be in any case and there is no denying it. Is it productive in any way.. well not really but i'm as equally unwilling to spend any effort to think any finer details to this hypothetical situation. There are certainly ways to think some but why bother. So you didn't think it was an interesting question after all? You don't think that eliminating absurd hypotheticals is productive? And yet you're not willing to spend any time making the hypothetical any less absurd? You can't be bothered? Why did you even start the conversation? Or, if that was some kind of attempt at sarcasm (which it would have been wise to indicate), why did you ask the question if you were only going to accept answers that were to your liking? You already knew what you thought would be the result. How can you dismiss contrary opinions without providing some actual counter argument? Please note, these are rhetorical questions: I neither want nor expect an answer. I think you'd do well to think about 'em though. Or you're going to be in for a rough ride here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H1nd Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 My attempts to communicate with some of you folks seems to fail miserably time and time again. Womble, I was not being sarcastic there but rater aknowledged that he was true in his points simple as that. By productive I meant only the context of this silly hypothesis. And since any detailed alternate scenario would require lot's of time and energy I agree that we should not bother. I did provide my level of out of the hat knowledge earlier in the thread but I have neither the time or energy to go futher with it. However if some one does, it's his time and his energy and should not be shot outrightly down by people like JasonC just because it's bit silly. Such hypothetical settings can make fun scenarios to play after all. And is this forum for that or not? Enjoyable scenarios for CM? Also thank you BletchleyGeek for the details of the second demise of the sixth army as well as very good pointers about the AGN. I cannot but agree with you. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BletchleyGeek Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Also thank you BletchleyGeek for the details of the second demise of the sixth army as well as very good pointers about the AGN. I cannot but agree with you. Fair enough, H1nd. Zetterling & Frankston do a quite thorough "AAR" of the Korsun episode in their book, discussing at some length and depth what were the consequences that "moral" - in Manstein words - German victory. I can't find any reference focusing on the plight of 1st PzArmee shortly after Korsun, maybe some forum local can dig up something. And I can't get hold of the OCS Hube's Pocket wargame, I remember its designer notes' being quite good and full with pointers. Regarding the possibilities of the AGN doing a fighting withdrawal with one flank hanging out in the air, I'd recommend you look up references to the "Baltic Gap". There aren't many books in English making more than a passing reference to it, but maybe there's more substantial stuff published in German. But my remarks about the difficulty of such an operation are based on the remarks - scant - about what I've read about the discussions of the idea (probably in Ziemke's "Stalingrad to Berlin") when Doppelkopf managed to re-establish land communications - for a very short time - between Third Panzer Army and AGN. EDIT: You can find the designer's notes for Hube's Pocket from page 17 onwards on this PDF http://www.gamersarchive.net/theGamers/archive/ocs/OCSHubes/hubesPocket.pdf But I see that no bibliographic pointers are given. Unreliable memories and all that... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 BletchleyGeek, according to 'Panzeroperationen Doppelkopf and Caesar' by Gerd Niepold, by far the best book on the subject, a fighting withdrawl of AGN was still possible in August 1944, especially since a number of relatively strong and fresh Panzer units was available in that area and the Red Army was focused more on East Prussia. It wouldn't have been a picknick, but it would have a reasonable chance on success. JasonC, there is a treatment for Asperger syndrome, so don't wait any longer PLEASE. Womble, H1nd's contribution has been a lot more valuable than yours, so get off his back. My final word, about my 'silly question'. When a serious military historian like Peter G. Tsouras finds it interesting enough to study, as far fetched as it may be, I do not think it can be regarded as an absurd hypothetical. Apart from that it should be possible to raise the question, without drawing attention of the local thugs. But I won't make that mistake again, gentlemen, you can count on that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BletchleyGeek Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 BletchleyGeek, according to 'Panzeroperationen Doppelkopf and Caesar' by Gerd Niepold, by far the best book on the subject, a fighting withdrawl of AGN was still possible in August 1944, especially since a number of relatively strong and fresh Panzer units was available in that area and the Red Army was focused more on East Prussia. It wouldn't have been a picknick, but it would have a reasonable chance on success. Too bad that "focusing on East Prussia" meant "focusing on cutting off" the forces involved in Doppelkopf. I'd be quite interested in seeing what's Niepold argument supporting that statement, but the book has only been published in German as far as I know. And to be honest, I have the sensation this is a what-if that would be preferably explored by war gaming. Maybe WitE could be used, but I find many things in that engine to be very dubious. And OCS Baltic Gap is kind of cumbersome. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freyberg Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nah, mainly im just offended by your hostile attitude... I agree with this. I read this forum regularly, because a lot of you guys on it are very knowledgeable and I respect you for it, but do some of you have to be so sniffy about it...?? After all, this is also a forum for Combat Mission players who just want to shoot the breeze isn't it... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonC Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I have a better solution... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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