ArmouredTopHat

The later generation AMRAAMs from my knowledge have a range measured in at least a hundred miles or so. Obviously effective range might be shorter but that should in theory place VKS glide bombing runs within a reasonable engagement window, granted at a potential risk.

My knowledge on BVR air combat is limited, but I understand that you have to fire high up in order to get the upper end of effective ranges on long range missiles. Which means F-16s flying high which will be a considerable risk. It is perhaps no coincidence that we are seeing a renewed Ukrainian focus on Russian AD, especially their high end search radars, A-50 control planes and of course S-400s. 

I would point out however that in theory the Russian jets are also pretty exposed on their glide bombing runs, for they also need to fly quite high in order to drop them at sufficient distance. I figured there is a reasonable chance that F-16s will be able to achieve intercepts without having to get suicidally close to the lines. (We should not underestimate Russian AD despite their proclivity to shoot their own planes down and be hilariously incompetent)

What might be more of a guarantee is that VKS pilots will have to bear in mind the threat potential of F-16s intercepting them, adding another layer of complication to their already considerable list of potentially potent Ukrainian AD and their own AD shooting them.  In theory, simply the presence of F-16 flying near the front might encourage a lot of cancelled bomb runs, which is something that will certainly have a tangible effect on the strike rate at the very least. 

This is sadly an inevitable potential outcome if AD is used against Russian aircraft, who seldom cross the lines to perform strikes. It should be viewed as an acceptable risk. 
This is honestly a very good point. Ukraine has had to go from an entirely soviet modelled force into something between that and NATO lines in the last ten years. Its not been easy and plenty of sources refer to the issue that the older generation of officers and certain elements of the force are still very much stuck in the soviet ethos of doing things. Even with the younger generation of officers thinking differently, these sorts of structural changes can take a long time to push through.

Reforming an army on such a scale is not easy in the slightest, especially when fighting a war of survival. Despite all this Ukraine has shown a truly flexible and innovative approach to in cooperating advanced NATO technology into their force.  We have already seen such craziness such as HARMs being launched from Mig-29s and BUKs carrying sparrows. There is clearly the skill and willingness for clever improvisation and I dont see going anywhere soon. 
BVR missiles are going to surely be the focus given the current nature of air combat over Ukraine. From what I remember reading up from Ukrainian pilot sources, Russian pilots learned very quickly not to get within short range missile range and instead stand off with their BVR capability advantage together with superior avionics. Stand off seems to be the current name of the game and its one where the VKS currently enjoys a major advantage. UA pilots cannot do much else than attempt to lure VKS pilots closer and otherwise fly low and cautiously. Its a testament to the skill and tenacity of the Ukrainians that they even have airframes flying at this point given the disparity. 

What they need more than anything is a capability equaliser on that front so presumably the best AMRAAMs possible will be desired. Its a shame that the Ukrainians are unlikely to get a platform that can launch Meteor though, for that would truly have the VKS soiling itself given its hilariously dangerous capabilities. Not to say the latest AMRAAMs are not dangerous of course.  They may not have the range of some Russian BVR missiles in service, but I suspect their lethality is significantly higher when packaged with something like F-16 with its fantastic avionics suite.

A good point about the dissipation effect. Though I would also argue in turn that the gradual acquisition of NATO standard kit into the UA arsenal might produce a similar if less pronounced effect as the use of various kit culminates together in use. 

Think of what Ukraine had in 2022 vs what they have now. They have been provided capabilities in areas that simply did not exist or were extremely limited for them at the outbreak of war. This in effect has only made Russia's advantages more difficult to leverage, all while Russia suffers a steady and keen attrition of what makes its own strengths so potentially powerful.

As I mentioned before, the key is inflicting enough strain on pressure on key points of the Russian system that the whole apparatus begins to fail. Examples include wearing down Russian artillery which is a major strength and relied upon factor for Russia to leverage results with. 

The specific block versions supplied to Ukraine, their avionics capabilities, and the strike weapons supplied will determine an awfully lot of their effectiveness. Those who fly Falcon BMS should have a fair idea of the extensive variety of mission profiles and the families of strike weapons the various blocks of Vipers can employ. The GBU class and especially the GPS enabled versions are excellent standoff threat. When accompanied by Shoot The Archers” HARM carrying Vipers I would expect more Russian air defenses go boom. I’m not clear on what Russian platforms have been delivering those glide bombs (Russian GBU version kits?), but if they are fighters they should need greater and greater separation from their targets, and therefore greater and greater altitudes for launch. Meaning higher radar visibility and interception risks. The AIM-120B and Cs on their native platform should make the ATA quite interesting considering historical matchups in air combat seen elsewhere.
Regarding “silver bullets”, I don’t believe there are any. It’s the combination of the full array of newer, modern Western platforms, sensors, munitions, and training that could have and still might have a more powerful impact when employed together. Dribbling in small numbers of each platform periodically and consecutively over the years dissipates much of the advantages of each. The enemy focuses on and adjusts to each one in isolation, with plenty of time before the next platform arrives. Reasons why it happened this way have been discussed here over the years of the war. But the dissipation effect is what is.

A good point about the dissipation effect. Though I would also argue in turn that the gradual acquisition of NATO standard kit into the UA arsenal might produce a similar if less pronounced effect as the use of various kit culminates together in use. 

Think of what Ukraine had in 2022 vs what they have now. They have been provided capabilities in areas that simply did not exist or were extremely limited for them at the outbreak of war. This in effect has only made Russia's advantages more difficult to leverage, all while Russia suffers a steady and keen attrition of what makes its own strengths so potentially powerful.

As I mentioned before, the key is inflicting enough strain on pressure on key points of the Russian system that the whole apparatus begins to fail. Examples include wearing down Russian artillery which is a major strength and relied upon factor for Russia to leverage results with. 

A good point about the dissipation effect. Though I would also argue in turn that the gradual acquisition of NATO standard kit into the UA arsenal might produce a similar if less pronounced effect as the use of various kit culminates together in use. 

Think of what Ukraine had in 2022 vs what they have now. They have been provided capabilities in areas that simply did not exist or were extremely limited for them at the outbreak of war. This in effect has only made Russia's advantages more difficult to leverage, all while Russia suffers a steady and keen attrition of what makes its own strengths so potentially powerful.

As I mentioned before, the key is inflicting enough strain on pressure on key points of the Russian system that the whole apparatus begins to fail. Examples include wearing down Russian artillery which is a major strength and relied upon factor for Russia to leverage results with. 

I think the main potential benefit is making the VKS have a much rougher time with their glide bombing operations, which seem to be a growing headache for the AFU as Russian artillery declines in both accuracy and lethality as older / reactivated systems replace more modern ones.

Ground based air defence is excellent, but well managed air interceptions offer critical mobility against striking craft on a large conflict front while making hostile strikes more complex to plan and execute. With F-16s unlocking a truly incredible suite of lethal and dangerous NATO air launched options (Will be curious to see what they are given) its certainly a far better deal than what the incredibly brave Ukrainian pilots have been dealing with so far flying old jets with old missiles. Not to mention a quite literally near bottomless supply of F-16 airframes for the future, at least compared to Mig-29 supplies. At the very least with some actual BVR capability the Ukrainians can at least sling missiles back at Russian craft who have until this point been largely standing off and taking potshots at Ukrainian craft. 

In short, it hopefully provides another pressure point which could help contribute to at the very least growing difficulties in the Russian military (VKS especially) if not outright act as a game changer. We can only hope. 

I think that's highly probable. But they can also contribute standoff PGM capabilities for CAS/BAI and deeper interdiction. And even if conventional notions of air superiority seen outmoded at this point, I definitely think there will be an important counter-air (to use the old Soviet term) role for the F-16s reducing the Russian glide bomb threat.

According to pro Russian propaganda, the AFU has been in a 'critical' situation for years and yet nothing has really happened. This is literally just conjecture. 

I have been a long time lurker enjoying this thread for years and I just cannot sit by and watch a clear propaganda account spout such rubbish. I know several Ukrainians who would literally punch you in the face for suggesting that Ukraine 'should just surrender man' after the disgusting acts committed upon them. 

You claim Russia is 'fixing' its corruption when in reality its just one faction cleaning out the other. Both are neck deep in said corruption all while while new stooges are brought in. They arrested general Popov who was specifically trying to point the many flaws in the Russian military system last year (And got fired for it) and seemed to be one of the few who actually gave a damn about the lives of his soldiers. 

Russia is not fixing anything, they are just assigning fall guys and pretending nothing is wrong. 

See there it is. That right there tells me you are not Ukrainian at all.

Obvious to see that thin veil of contempt you have for Ukrainians daring to fight against an invading country. Also hilarious to suggest that Ukrainians 'retreat from a real fight' after literally fighting for years against the Russians. What is up with this crazy idea that Ukrainians are somehow not fighting properly yet Russia is unable to gain much ground at all (After losing over half of their initial gains since the invasion) You do realise that your propaganda makes no sense right?

See there it is. That right there tells me you are not Ukrainian at all.

Obvious to see that thin veil of contempt you have for Ukrainians daring to fight against an invading country. Also hilarious to suggest that Ukrainians 'retreat from a real fight' after literally fighting for years against the Russians. What is up with this crazy idea that Ukrainians are somehow not fighting properly yet Russia is unable to gain much ground at all (After losing over half of their initial gains since the invasion) You do realise that your propaganda makes no sense right?

You are shocked when someone turns up spouting utter nonsense and gets the appropriate treatment for doing so? 

 

See there it is. That right there tells me you are not Ukrainian at all.

Obvious to see that thin veil of contempt you have for Ukrainians daring to fight against an invading country. Also hilarious to suggest that Ukrainians 'retreat from a real fight' after literally fighting for years against the Russians. What is up with this crazy idea that Ukrainians are somehow not fighting properly yet Russia is unable to gain much ground at all (After losing over half of their initial gains since the invasion) You do realise that your propaganda makes no sense right?

According to pro Russian propaganda, the AFU has been in a 'critical' situation for years and yet nothing has really happened. This is literally just conjecture. 

I have been a long time lurker enjoying this thread for years and I just cannot sit by and watch a clear propaganda account spout such rubbish. I know several Ukrainians who would literally punch you in the face for suggesting that Ukraine 'should just surrender man' after the disgusting acts committed upon them. 

You claim Russia is 'fixing' its corruption when in reality its just one faction cleaning out the other. Both are neck deep in said corruption all while while new stooges are brought in. They arrested general Popov who was specifically trying to point the many flaws in the Russian military system last year (And got fired for it) and seemed to be one of the few who actually gave a damn about the lives of his soldiers. 

Russia is not fixing anything, they are just assigning fall guys and pretending nothing is wrong. 

According to pro Russian propaganda, the AFU has been in a 'critical' situation for years and yet nothing has really happened. This is literally just conjecture. 

I have been a long time lurker enjoying this thread for years and I just cannot sit by and watch a clear propaganda account spout such rubbish. I know several Ukrainians who would literally punch you in the face for suggesting that Ukraine 'should just surrender man' after the disgusting acts committed upon them. 

You claim Russia is 'fixing' its corruption when in reality its just one faction cleaning out the other. Both are neck deep in said corruption all while while new stooges are brought in. They arrested general Popov who was specifically trying to point the many flaws in the Russian military system last year (And got fired for it) and seemed to be one of the few who actually gave a damn about the lives of his soldiers. 

Russia is not fixing anything, they are just assigning fall guys and pretending nothing is wrong. 

According to pro Russian propaganda, the AFU has been in a 'critical' situation for years and yet nothing has really happened. This is literally just conjecture. 

I have been a long time lurker enjoying this thread for years and I just cannot sit by and watch a clear propaganda account spout such rubbish. I know several Ukrainians who would literally punch you in the face for suggesting that Ukraine 'should just surrender man' after the disgusting acts committed upon them. 

You claim Russia is 'fixing' its corruption when in reality its just one faction cleaning out the other. Both are neck deep in said corruption all while while new stooges are brought in. They arrested general Popov who was specifically trying to point the many flaws in the Russian military system last year (And got fired for it) and seemed to be one of the few who actually gave a damn about the lives of his soldiers. 

Russia is not fixing anything, they are just assigning fall guys and pretending nothing is wrong. 

According to pro Russian propaganda, the AFU has been in a 'critical' situation for years and yet nothing has really happened. This is literally just conjecture. 

I have been a long time lurker enjoying this thread for years and I just cannot sit by and watch a clear propaganda account spout such rubbish. I know several Ukrainians who would literally punch you in the face for suggesting that Ukraine 'should just surrender man' after the disgusting acts committed upon them. 

You claim Russia is 'fixing' its corruption when in reality its just one faction cleaning out the other. Both are neck deep in said corruption all while while new stooges are brought in. They arrested general Popov who was specifically trying to point the many flaws in the Russian military system last year (And got fired for it) and seemed to be one of the few who actually gave a damn about the lives of his soldiers. 

Russia is not fixing anything, they are just assigning fall guys and pretending nothing is wrong. 

According to pro Russian propaganda, the AFU has been in a 'critical' situation for years and yet nothing has really happened. This is literally just conjecture. 

I have been a long time lurker enjoying this thread for years and I just cannot sit by and watch a clear propaganda account spout such rubbish. I know several Ukrainians who would literally punch you in the face for suggesting that Ukraine 'should just surrender man' after the disgusting acts committed upon them. 

You claim Russia is 'fixing' its corruption when in reality its just one faction cleaning out the other. Both are neck deep in said corruption all while while new stooges are brought in. They arrested general Popov who was specifically trying to point the many flaws in the Russian military system last year (And got fired for it) and seemed to be one of the few who actually gave a damn about the lives of his soldiers. 

Russia is not fixing anything, they are just assigning fall guys and pretending nothing is wrong. 

More images of improvised protection on the M1s in UA service. Curious that we are seeing more of these now. Possibly the result of experience of frontline action?
 
 

See there it is. That right there tells me you are not Ukrainian at all.

Obvious to see that thin veil of contempt you have for Ukrainians daring to fight against an invading country. Also hilarious to suggest that Ukrainians 'retreat from a real fight' after literally fighting for years against the Russians. What is up with this crazy idea that Ukrainians are somehow not fighting properly yet Russia is unable to gain much ground at all (After losing over half of their initial gains since the invasion) You do realise that your propaganda makes no sense right?

According to pro Russian propaganda, the AFU has been in a 'critical' situation for years and yet nothing has really happened. This is literally just conjecture. 

I have been a long time lurker enjoying this thread for years and I just cannot sit by and watch a clear propaganda account spout such rubbish. I know several Ukrainians who would literally punch you in the face for suggesting that Ukraine 'should just surrender man' after the disgusting acts committed upon them. 

You claim Russia is 'fixing' its corruption when in reality its just one faction cleaning out the other. Both are neck deep in said corruption all while while new stooges are brought in. They arrested general Popov who was specifically trying to point the many flaws in the Russian military system last year (And got fired for it) and seemed to be one of the few who actually gave a damn about the lives of his soldiers. 

Russia is not fixing anything, they are just assigning fall guys and pretending nothing is wrong. 

See there it is. That right there tells me you are not Ukrainian at all.

Obvious to see that thin veil of contempt you have for Ukrainians daring to fight against an invading country. Also hilarious to suggest that Ukrainians 'retreat from a real fight' after literally fighting for years against the Russians. What is up with this crazy idea that Ukrainians are somehow not fighting properly yet Russia is unable to gain much ground at all (After losing over half of their initial gains since the invasion) You do realise that your propaganda makes no sense right?

According to pro Russian propaganda, the AFU has been in a 'critical' situation for years and yet nothing has really happened. This is literally just conjecture. 

I have been a long time lurker enjoying this thread for years and I just cannot sit by and watch a clear propaganda account spout such rubbish. I know several Ukrainians who would literally punch you in the face for suggesting that Ukraine 'should just surrender man' after the disgusting acts committed upon them. 

You claim Russia is 'fixing' its corruption when in reality its just one faction cleaning out the other. Both are neck deep in said corruption all while while new stooges are brought in. They arrested general Popov who was specifically trying to point the many flaws in the Russian military system last year (And got fired for it) and seemed to be one of the few who actually gave a damn about the lives of his soldiers. 

Russia is not fixing anything, they are just assigning fall guys and pretending nothing is wrong. 

According to pro Russian propaganda, the AFU has been in a 'critical' situation for years and yet nothing has really happened. This is literally just conjecture. 

I have been a long time lurker enjoying this thread for years and I just cannot sit by and watch a clear propaganda account spout such rubbish. I know several Ukrainians who would literally punch you in the face for suggesting that Ukraine 'should just surrender man' after the disgusting acts committed upon them. 

You claim Russia is 'fixing' its corruption when in reality its just one faction cleaning out the other. Both are neck deep in said corruption all while while new stooges are brought in. They arrested general Popov who was specifically trying to point the many flaws in the Russian military system last year (And got fired for it) and seemed to be one of the few who actually gave a damn about the lives of his soldiers. 

Russia is not fixing anything, they are just assigning fall guys and pretending nothing is wrong. 

See there it is. That right there tells me you are not Ukrainian at all.

Obvious to see that thin veil of contempt you have for Ukrainians daring to fight against an invading country. Also hilarious to suggest that Ukrainians 'retreat from a real fight' after literally fighting for years against the Russians. What is up with this crazy idea that Ukrainians are somehow not fighting properly yet Russia is unable to gain much ground at all (After losing over half of their initial gains since the invasion) You do realise that your propaganda makes no sense right?