ArmouredTopHat

First video of special unit "Shkval" (of former covicted) from 47th mech. brigade. They assault Russian position somewhere on Pokrovsk direction
Interesting, that in Russian special assault detachments was named "Shtotm" (eng. Storm). Ukriane went the same way and named them "Shkval" (eng. Squall ). For this time about 3500 former convicts agreed to mobilize. First units already on frontline. It's known about "Shkval" detachments in 47th mech. brigade, 59th mot.inf brigade and 3rd assault brigade. Unlike in Russia only persons, convicted on minor charges are allowed to mobilize. Not murderers, robbers, rapers, pedophiles, corruptioners etc.

Could I ask everyone to please NOT comment on the Trump shooting?
Media outlets will run this story 24/7 for the next week, and I don't think anyone here can add any new information.
Although this may or may not have an impact on the election, I don't think this event will have any influence on the stance of the winner wrt to Ukraine.
This thread is about the war in Ukraine, so please keep it there.

I do not disagree with this, but that does not mean my opinion gets to be discarded so callously and an insinuation made that I am doing this as part of an 'agenda'. The whole affair reeked of intellectual gatekeeping and its just not very nice. 

I am just a guy who happened to study military history at university and have a great interest in the subject. I dont work for a military company or government, I have literally no stake in this. I was just interested in a forum from a series game I like to play that seemed to be on the ball (and did not tolerate Russian disinformation). Yet Capt decided to make a wild assumption and announce it publicly to that affect in a way that is frankly quite childish. It was simply unnecessary.

Its just more than a little bit insulting when people who I have been following react so caustically to my opinion while also misreading my points and proceed to do the intellectual equivalent of flipping the table despite me saying multiple times I agree on a lot of points and find their notions insightful. I put a lot of time in replying in detail as much as I could to people, so forgive me if I am a little jaded when someone decides to pull a stunt like that. It was not what I expected from this forum to put it simply. 
 
I dont know how many times I have said how open I am to being convinced otherwise, hell I have acknowledged to that effect that partially due to this forum that my views have changed over the course of two years on a lot of things. Yet I get labelled as a 'conservative' all the same for simply thinking that perhaps some conclusions might be premature or that there could be other options? Its like me calling you a drone fanatic or something odd. 

I have literally deferred my opinion several times on subjects. I have asked questions knowing that people have better answers than I do. That does not mean I cant form my own opinions, or look at evidence scattered around that makes similar notions that I do. Certainly doesn't mean certain people here get to discard opinions because they dont agree on them. 

This could of all been avoided with an agree to disagree notion, which I also put forward. 

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1e2h3rf/bradley_and_his_crew_surviving_multiple_fpv_drone/
Bradleys really are earning a reputation for durability. Impressive survivability for an IFV. 

While we have to be cautious about these sorts of data points, its clear some real workhorses in the Russian military are about to be severely curtailed. 

Well, that's one way to shunt what was initially an very good first impression to why the hell did I even bother taking the time of day to respond to this person in the first place. Truly Disappointing. 

A true cherry on top being that I must have an agenda rather than daring to have my own opinions on a subject. I am sure Rheinmetall is so desperate that they sent me as an agent onto a video game forum to drum up support. 

An interesting one:
There are obviously things going wrong for the defence here but I'm really impressed by the total lack of respect for basic physics. Assuming the drone can be jammed and that the jammer works, momentum is going to finish the job when engaging this close to the target.

Also noticed the usage of gas masks (unless that is standard issue during training due to the fumes from training rounds or whatever).
Ukrainian complaints about Russian use of gas irritants have not stopped. Some UAF units have to wear masks for hours each day.
So, a good training scenario: trench cleaning under continuous drone observation and FPV attacks, with chemical warfare added in the mix. And OPFOR with red armbands.

Despite my proclivities for tanks and armoured vehicles, I always figured railguns were never going to be viable on a tank platform unless we have a revolution in energy generation or storage. Far more likely to to see ETC if we do see a radical change when it comes to gun technology on vehicles (It has applications for artillery as much as it does direct fire)

Shoutout to the Expanse though, they did railguns justice. 

Good to see there is at least awareness of the FPV threat starting to be reflected in training regimes 

Either someone has made a real tech breakthrough, which is not impossible, or someone has found a pet congresscritter to slip something in the budget for there brother in law. Publicly known rail gun tech is not ready for this. I did see something about the Japanese doing a CIWS system with a 40mm rail gun, but 155? And if it works there no reason not to shoot it at land targets...
Edit: I think it is a misleading tweet, the Army is using some combination of a very high energy propellant, and the the emerging ram jet shell technology to boost the PROJECTILE developed for the navy rail gun program. They haven't lost their minds and tried to put an actual rail gun on wheels.

If Russian logistics are this well organised no wonder its so easy to disrupt...

Perun was on to something when he mentioned how the Russian lack of pallets in their system is so damn debilitating. 

On left bank of Dnipro huge fire is continuing to eat wide forest area near Oleshky town. About week ago UKR HIMARS strike on Russian ammo dump caused mass ignition and Russians couldn't extinguish a fire, so it's continuinue to spread, destroying enemy positions. Abnormal heat also contribute spreading of the fire. Sometime it's spreading so fast and unpredictable, that Russians have no time to evacuate own stuff 
On the photo Russian Msta-S, burning in the forest fire

Exactly. What choice do they have? And Europe will continue to support them. What choice do we have? Time to say goodbye to Uncle Sam and his political blundering about. A country that choses that bleached bastard is not fit to be our ally. It's Roosevelt and his band of communist traitors all over again. Mind you, I still hope common sense will prevail in the US in November, but I doubt it.

I think you are selling the Ukrainians short.  They will fight on regardless of who wins in Nov.

I mean realistically, Russia and Ukraine are both unlikely to collapse this year, so the war is going to be decided by who wins the next US elections. We have nigh certainty of how that's going to go, and my heart breaks for Ukraine (and Taiwan) but discussing it here again again is not really worth it.
The discussion of how tank is dead is at least interesting, even if somewhat circular.

F-35 had plenty of time to cook, and 4th gens in service are already approaching the end of their service spans even with extensive upgrades. You really cant string out the lifecycle of those platforms much longer, especially in an environment that's increasingly hostile to them. 

UAS was simply not viable in the roles they wanted F-35 to perform, and wont be for a while yet. I envision the US will be complimenting F-35s with UCAVs down the line as a replacement to 4th gens to make up numbers.

 
 
People can be right and wrong on different matters. If your concerned about sources have some more. Note how literally every pilot who flies them think they are fantastic and literally better than anything else in the air. 

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-f-35-might-be-best-fighter-jet-ever-208703#:~:text=In terms of avionics%2C the,and advanced electronic warfare capabilities.

https://www.businessinsider.com/test-pilot-f-35-demands-more-than-great-flying-skills-2023-11

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/f-35-cheaper-gripen-czech-republic-says

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/it-only-gets-better-stealth-f-35-becoming-more-powerful-and-affordable-204360
Because congress is filled with idiot politicians who are fed a lot of misinformation on military matters and have a record of cutting anything that costs money without examining why. You only have to look at the Bradley fiasco to understand that. (Yeah turns out that whole movie about it was a bit of a lie)

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/the-mangled-myths-dogging-the-f-35/

If you actually ask the pilots flying these things, you will know that the plane is a genuine winner and is revolutionary in its effect on the airspace and has more than justified its cost. NATO air exercises are really quite good and pit planes in pretty realistic scenarios, and F-35 has proven itself in them, especially the Red Flag exercises that literally threw everything and the kitchen sink at F-35 to test its capabilities. This is not some MIC scam that everyone is in on, the platform works and works damn -well- at its job, far better than any adversary can. Why do you think the Chinese have been trying so hard to steal its secrets?

Yes, UCAVs are probably going to be a feature of the future, I dont deny that, but its a good way from it just yet. There is not much out there drone wise that has the radar and the ability to sling AMRAAMS at targets whilst being stealthy though. Any UCAV capable of doing so is going to be expensive, perhaps as much so as a 4th gen, you need similar equipment to do so. You cannot strap a Meteor missile onto a civilian drone and expect it to work like an RPG-7 warhead. 

The fact of the matter is that the cost of F-35 per unit is going down over time, as is the maintenance costs as more are produced. You picked a strange hill to die on when it comes to a badly managed military project. A decade ago this perhaps might have been more in doubt but now that F-35 is in active service (and actual combat) and has worked pretty much flawlessly, there can be no more doubt as to such a platform being the way forward for manned air platforms. 

This night Russians tried to hit Starokostiantyniv airfield in Khmelnytskyi oblast. All five Kh-101 missiles and 11 from 19 Shakheds were shot down. The missiles were intercepted in Sumy, Cherkasy and Khmelnitskyi oblast, i.e. with support of fighter jets.
Air Force Command claimed rest 8 Shakheds were "lost" - probably these were empty drones to distract AD systems, because there are no reports about these drones hit any objects. In this time, probably it's true, because no alarming reports and footages in social media

Except probably upgraded Kh-101 missiles, Russians became to use new airstrike tactic. They take-off one or two Tu-95 from Dyagilevo airbase (closest to Ukrainian border) like usual day routine flight, but in this time launch several missiles. Two days ago in this way 4 Kh-101 were launched on Poltava. It's known some industriual object was hit with at least one missile. 

I honestly think that achieving this in some form was the goal, it certainly did force Ukraine to move units to prevent it as it is such an important city for them right now. We know the Russians will happily level cities if they are in artillery range. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn09234xxn1o
 

There has been an upsurge from Rus propagandists about how increasingly frustrated they are with the war effort at least. I think some of them might be realising that time is not on their side. 

Zakharova made a statement, that "Kiev regime prepares destruction of the dams of Kiev and Kanev reservoirs - this will become one more cynical provocation against Russia"
 

I wonder if this is not blackmail, what they could use even to breach a hole in the dam? Kh-22 in theory can reach Kyivan hydroenergy plant dam, but I doubt it can cause crirtical damage to ruin it. Kaniv dam... maybe Kinhzal? Inner explosion like in Kakhovka is impossible.  
Here is hypothetical level of water along the city if dam broken

Kyiv hydroebergy plant dam. Ity not so wide like in Kakhovka

My counter point would be you could argue protection notions for vehicles before had similar principle. ERA / Chobham armour or whatever protection scheme you used for a vehicle was never going to be fool proof, but the trade off of spending a bit more money to protect an expensive vehicle is evidently worth it. Trophy and other APS systems certainly push that cost trade off closer to a limit, but the base principle still applies. The drone issue might overturn that cost ratio to the point of irrelevance, that is something I genuinely dont know and needs to be addressed. 
 
Very fair point. I am a little baffled there was not more talk of this prior in certain circles when Ukraine was not even the first conflict to feature civilian drones dropping grenades on people. Even with loitering drone munitions produced by the military the assumption seems to have been they would not be in quantities large enough to matter. 

I think you are right in that we might see a much greater emphasis on APS being directed towards such munitions, or featuring ways to kill drones that dont feature explosions. Iron fist supposedly features an EO jammer / dazzler. I wonder if this might be what they intend to use on the drones? Would that even work on an AI guided munition? ( I would figure so but I am not an expert)

I found some neat information below that goes a bit more into detail on the different methods of hard kill and their pros / cons should anyone want a nice read.