Billy Ringo

The NBA on TNT just did a long gut wrenching piece with follow-up commentary on the War in Ukraine.  (For the non-Americans, it is a very popular NBA pre-game show featuring Charles Barkley, Shaquille O'Neill, etc.  Large audience that probably doesn't spend much time reading up on this war.)   It featured one of O'Neill's former teammates who is Ukrainian and joined the fight.  At the end, they listed a fundraising site to donate.
This is the type of exposure that helps fuel American support for the Ukrainians.   To keep the war front and center in the minds of the American taxpayer--the voters.  It was a welcome site to see.  I'll post a link to the video if I can find it.
 
 

The NBA on TNT just did a long gut wrenching piece with follow-up commentary on the War in Ukraine.  (For the non-Americans, it is a very popular NBA pre-game show featuring Charles Barkley, Shaquille O'Neill, etc.  Large audience that probably doesn't spend much time reading up on this war.)   It featured one of O'Neill's former teammates who is Ukrainian and joined the fight.  At the end, they listed a fundraising site to donate.
This is the type of exposure that helps fuel American support for the Ukrainians.   To keep the war front and center in the minds of the American taxpayer--the voters.  It was a welcome site to see.  I'll post a link to the video if I can find it.
 
 

The NBA on TNT just did a long gut wrenching piece with follow-up commentary on the War in Ukraine.  (For the non-Americans, it is a very popular NBA pre-game show featuring Charles Barkley, Shaquille O'Neill, etc.  Large audience that probably doesn't spend much time reading up on this war.)   It featured one of O'Neill's former teammates who is Ukrainian and joined the fight.  At the end, they listed a fundraising site to donate.
This is the type of exposure that helps fuel American support for the Ukrainians.   To keep the war front and center in the minds of the American taxpayer--the voters.  It was a welcome site to see.  I'll post a link to the video if I can find it.
 
 

Ok since previous post about adventures of sergeant 'Krzysztof X" from foreign legion became quite popular, I summarized second interview which appeared on 14 october. This time he talks about Kharkiv offensive. Note, he serves in multinational "special detachment" size of of weak platoon (Brits would probably call it "stick"), serving as recon/assault force.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEboMcDuojc&t=4s
Note I omitted some less relevant stuff, but it is still insenly detailed (in fact material for future recon campaign in CMBS...), so VERY long reading. But I think it is worth it, as we don't have too much first hand accounts and simply more people should hear story of these brave folks. Sorry for possible mistakes, I am treating this material as exercise in english and it took several days for half an hour each to compile. It may be slightly incoherent, but I hope it is undestandeable. Text in [] is my commentary.
 
Preparations:
-He claims Kherson offensive was real, but subsidiary from the start to northern one [ note- his personal opinion].
-Offensive in the north was set to begin on 1st September. There was not enough artillery ammo stocks though, so it was delayed for several days. Later they need to race with time, since Russians clearly started to sniff out something big is gonna happen and moved  reinforcments.
- They were called into different part of the front, and worked under new brigade along (in total) 5 special groups subordinated to it.
- His platoon attacked into Kupyansk direction, left of 80th Air Assault Bg. attacking Balaclava. They had insane schedule, with 3 consecutive days they were expected to be in: Vovkhyi Yar-Schevchenkove-Kupyansk. Guys did not believe when told about it and think it was a joke, as it was over 100 km and they barely moved hundred meters till now.

Breaking the front:
- His group was tasked with stealthy clearing paths though minefields for infantry, which they started day before. They worked whole day, get back for a supper, and worked again till middle of the night. Meanwhile assault infantry platoons started to arrive, which they hid in undisclosed space.
- Artillery and HImars started to work in the night "It felt like during WWII". At 4 AM they started to prepare attack, but were delayed again because of supporting tanks were stack for a while in some difficult marshy terrain- also Russians clearly were alarmed by that time, and one RU tank  randomly shoot at their location. Ukrianian tank engaged it.
-They modified plan, but thanks to elastic command it was easier to do [they are special platoon, accustomed to swift decision making unlike rest of common infantry- note how flexible are lower commanders there]. They used a dry gorge (ukr. yar) to get into enemy Observation Point on small hill over it. They pushed sentries back, made corridor and leave attack into infantrymen hands. Specials moved back to rest.
Breaking front lines:
-Russian lines started to crack very quickly in the night. They inexpectedly were awakaned and ordered to mov into breakththough by 5 cars. It was very chaotic environment- a lot of debris, detroyed bridges and sappers [it seems engineers followed special groups before mechanized infantry]. Russians prepared lots of false roads that lead into minefields [interesting detail- again important factor is good driver and spotters]. They somehow successfully passed Vovkhyi Yar roads in light pickups over uncleared roads, but 2 heavier BTR's following them were lost on mines.
-They stayed there for night. They had very vague orders to recon and destroy enemy where possible; platoon commander took decision on his own behalf to try more aggressive recon and thanks to this they reached Schevchenkove by midday. There were so many civilians greeting them, kissing and giving food they had obstructed the road. Guys moved so much forward they lost contact with main column and had no idea if they were followed by heavier forces or were in the town on their own, till they met another group of SSO. They together formed small detachment of 6 with a drone that started to penetrate town itself. Two of his soldiers (Czech and Italian) were so elevated by advance that they cleared several hundred meters of Russian trenches around the town by night(!), without NVG, and not even knowing if main UA force being present behind them [ "blitzkrieg rush" is evident here]
-By 3rd day they moved to Kupyanks road- there they witnessed Russian armour running, but were unable to lay proper ambush due to belts of mines being set along the main roads several kms sideways; they couldn't even shoot with Javelin [another curious aspect- since RU have no infantry to secure roads, they prepared deep obstacles for ambushers along routs of advance  escape].
-Then they moved directly into Kupyansk road, moving in column of several civilian cars and one Cossack armoured car. They passed several checkpoints with abandoned muscovite armour [note they had no knowledge if they will be defended. Extremely risky move]. They reached last checkpoint on hills before Kupyansk, there they fall into ambush on masked bunkers. Fortunatelly, their brigade commander observed it by drone [note they had direct connection to Brigade command] so after sharp firefight they managed to withdraw, their Cossack car being damaged. They laid Javelin ambush just in case and called for support from SSO. Then they participated in failed probing attack on Russian lines, during which SSO offcier was WIA and Russian armour successfully blocked their advance; supporting Ukrainian tank and BTR's run dry on ammo. Only by third attempt on 4 PM they finally cleared the hill and Russian bunkers, with the help of arriving infantry and one more BTR [they stormed it from 10 am and fortifications were probably made from concrete; it could be close to Blahodativka village perhaps?]. The guy was very surprised he survived those days.

-Russian soldiers they encountered there where better equipped than average muscovites; they used for example individually cut bullets "false dum-dum",  also fought very stubbornly. Then he laughingly thanks Russians for providing so much supplies, from excellent food [unusual statement...he means "Spetsnaz military ratios", perhaps better than average🤔] to ammo and equipment.
-Front was very porous by that time, forests and hills around the city far from cleared, and Ukrainian forces behind often fall into ambushes or pinned in meeting engagements. Overal sense of chaos was constant, but very high morale due to presence of cheering civilians pushed them constantly forward ("one more village" syndrome). The more stories they heared from locals, like all young males being arrested and kept for months in small cells,the more were motivated to push- they expected Russians to start killing them like in Bucha [correctly- note many victims from previous massacres were murdered just before liberation, so speed was essential].
-After one day of rest they crossed Oskil river. They did several crossings together with other special other special groups and Kraken unit; spearhead believed they were pushing forward, but were in fact turned back and crossed the river again at Kupyansk alone [clearly Ukrainian command wanted to fool RU as to where main crossing will be]. There endured very heavy bombings by aircraft with case ammunition.
Street battles:
-Battles in Eastern Kupyanks were extremely heavy and lasted several hellish days, with meters between combatants; Russians there were visibly better soldiers than average, truly professionals [visible respect for adversary not present before]. Numerous civilian casualties lied everywhere, especially around the bridge, with people murdered by small arms; probably Russians tried to disperse crowds. Many others died due to artillery and mortars, but they still met civilians trying to find some food [insane, but corroborated by other accounts- due to speed of offensive, Kupyansk was full of civilians during fighting].
-Lines were intermingled and subjected to constant barrage, so a lot of city infrastructure and housing was destroyed. Tactically it was "fire and movement" in urban maze, enforcing fast and constant change of position by small teams unlike anything Western armies did before, often jumping over high fences just to find their previous position being blown by mortars seconds later [clearly Russian had good view and zeroed fires on them, hunting eevry team and soldier they could find]. They could only find short rest in cellars, but these could turn into traps if Russians found them. At nights they let several times Russian tanks and wave of infantry to pass them, later armour being detroyed at close range in the city center. Russians were occassionaly so close their KIA lied directly over and behind Ukrainian positions.
-Russians were very keen on capturing the city, since they still had units left on western bank and only two avenues of escape. Active defense and movement is king of the game in war like this, with large spaces between positions. Thus any army, including Western ones, would fight war of manouvre in such conditions- fortunatelly in this war Russians lacked infantry to "grab and hold" terrain.

-More strategic thoughts- he doesn't think Russian soldier, despite being cruel and ruthless to civilians, is necessarly "mobilized peasant". Some are like that, but many he met were well led professionals knowing their job. Also people at home laughing about Putin's mobilization should consider the influx of infantry, even weak one, will have significant effect on RU ability to hold terrain (especially urban) and plug holes at the front, thus changing nature of war into more linear and static. Once they will be there in mass, It will be more and more difficult for UA special teams to infiltrate the lines, and even recruits with guns can turn any urban fight into nightmare. He generally warns against treating RU mobiks lightly, as disregard for enemy is what started this war in first place [ very good point, btw; I think we sligthly slipped into echo chamber laughing at examples of Russian mobiks being drunk or send into meatgrinder. In favourite conditions, even dying by hundreds, they can make a difference].

-After several days they started to push Russians out of the city toward forests, where they set their positions. Ukrainian assault groups needed to cross more open spaces there, meeting massive barrages of artillery fire. He refuses to tell what they did to avoid them [probably they had Russians tapped somehow, allowing them to "chase off" fire]- it was constant movement to avoid heavy fires and find some cover, with enemy trying to trap them between lines of progressing creeping barrages. In the end they managed to secure enemy positions, and were called off to R&R. All that time they slept very little and were extremely tired.

-Asked for casualties- refuse to tell real numbers, but grimly give Zelensky's number of magnitude of ca. 50 soldiers dying daily as roughly correct; his platoon also suffered combat lossess he refuse to elaborate on. Russian lossess are hard to tell, but were visibly higher than Ukrainian judging by numbers of left dead bodies. Some were lost in doomed Russian assaults that were conducted poorly due to lack of infantry [I suppose too many armour charging blindly forward]. There was also a lot of POW's that will be used as bargaining chip. Russians in turn seem to not taking foreign volunteers as prisoners, which every legionaire should be concious about before he joins [based on Russian nationalistic channels, it can be largely true].
-At the end, he laughs at Shoigu complaining at "Polish mercenaries from under Kharkiv"; there are barely several Poles on entire front, but during one particulary heavy barrage he started to nervously call somebody in native language by radio on open waves, which was intercepted by the enemy and started this legend of "two brigades of Poles" [entirely believeable; Russians and their complexes...😎]
-They spend some days behind the front, but now are again going into recon missions on northern front and hunting Russians. Despite casualties, spirits are very high, especially thanks to civilians they liberated. Many units participating in the offensive are very tired and have used equipment; for example, their 5 cars are junk demanding complex reapair. They are also in need of spare barrels for their carbines [he personaly use GROT but with longer barrel, unsuitable for close combats they often participate in] and exchange for broken NVG's. Still, volunteers and Ukrainians are optimistic as to how the war is going, especially compared to gloomy June.
 
Ok, end for now. If I see other interesting interviews I will try to post them.
 

ISW report on Putin's internal situation, long but interesting read:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-track-disappoint-multiple-competing-factions-russia
 
Putin’s attempt to double down on his goals in Ukraine despite the obvious risks suggests he may have tied his regime’s survival to a victory or semblance of victory in Ukraine—potentially at the expense of Russia’s long-term strength.
This doubling-down presents four key issues for Putin:
Putin has created a requirement to constantly provide “victories” to the extreme nationalists, but has limited ability to do so; Putin is on a collision course with elements of his regime that may not want to wreck Russia’s remaining strength in pursuit of Putin’s objectives in Ukraine; Putin is increasingly projecting weakness through repeated bad decisions; and Putin’s limited value proposition to his base among the Russian population is diminishing.  

ISW report on Putin's internal situation, long but interesting read:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-track-disappoint-multiple-competing-factions-russia
 
Putin’s attempt to double down on his goals in Ukraine despite the obvious risks suggests he may have tied his regime’s survival to a victory or semblance of victory in Ukraine—potentially at the expense of Russia’s long-term strength.
This doubling-down presents four key issues for Putin:
Putin has created a requirement to constantly provide “victories” to the extreme nationalists, but has limited ability to do so; Putin is on a collision course with elements of his regime that may not want to wreck Russia’s remaining strength in pursuit of Putin’s objectives in Ukraine; Putin is increasingly projecting weakness through repeated bad decisions; and Putin’s limited value proposition to his base among the Russian population is diminishing.  

All is not lost:
 

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  
Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.
 
 

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  
Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.
 
 

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  
Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.
 
 

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  
Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.
 
 

the 40 billion dollar spending bill passed both the senate and house with overwhelming support in both parties.  While the no votes were concentrated in the GOP, most of the GOP backed it.  A change in majorities should not significantly alter that   There are folks who get a lot of publicity in their statements.  The more extreme the more publicity.  I wouldn't count on those folks making as much impact as their noise level might indicate.  On top of that the corporations set to make money off it will send their political donations to whomever ensures the tap is turned on.  The MAGA core's main impact is in the primaries, once folks are elected the money talks louder.

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  
Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.
 
 

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  
Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.
 
 

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  
Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.
 
 

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  
Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.
 
 

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  
Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.
 
 

Note: the below is *not* intended to be partisan but rather a reasonable analysis of the current American political milieu. 
I would add some caveats to the above. Putin *was* more popular among Republicans vis a vis  Democrats before the war started in Ukraine but it's actually hard to find any recent data on that now. I would imagine it's not what it was on February 23rd. Pew had Putin's general approval rating in the US around 6% in March. It's also important to note that as of right now 66% of Americans are in favor of continuing to arm Ukraine. That's a big number in a country with our partisan divides. It's also not clear yet where these midterms will shake out. In a normal cycle, this should have been a big year for the out-of-the-White-House party. Candidate quality, Supreme Court decisions and other factors are suggesting that it may not be. We'll see. 
The important point that I was trying to make above is that Ukrainian aid could, at minimum be delayed or cut it's certainly not a popular move in the American electorate. We'll see what happens and of course your vote and mine will have some say in the matter. 

we are so far past the point where Russia needs to be declared a state sponsor of terrorism.

Stumbled across the following while looking at another site, thought it might be worth sharing.  Of all the things to be learned from this war, how to amass, filter and take advantage of real-time open sourced information may be one of the most important.
 
OSINT in Ukraine: civilians in the kill chain and information space
OSINT shifted geopolitical sentiment toward Ukraine. Now members of the community are prosecuting the war through target acquisition.
 
https://defence.nridigital.com/global_defence_technology_oct22/osint_in_ukraine

Stumbled across the following while looking at another site, thought it might be worth sharing.  Of all the things to be learned from this war, how to amass, filter and take advantage of real-time open sourced information may be one of the most important.
 
OSINT in Ukraine: civilians in the kill chain and information space
OSINT shifted geopolitical sentiment toward Ukraine. Now members of the community are prosecuting the war through target acquisition.
 
https://defence.nridigital.com/global_defence_technology_oct22/osint_in_ukraine

Two can play at this game.  And my money is on the Ukrainians to more rapidly and efficiently restore power.  Not to mention have more access to replacement/repair parts which could become a major issue if Russia is dependent on western sourced supplies.
https://english.nv.ua/nation/major-fire-breaks-out-at-power-substation-in-russia-s-belgorod-ukraine-war-50276055.html

Hi, all.  This is my first post on any forum thread for many years but I'd like to say I have been reading this one avidly since the start of the war and I very much appreciate the balance you have struck between as-it-happens commentary, critical analysis and (often extremely well) educated opinion.  I agree with those before me who've noted that there doesn't seem to be a comparable resource anywhere else online.
While I'm loathe to clutter the thread with idle speculation (I admit I occasionally find myself having to skim-read a few pages whenever someone revives the 'nuclear question') I thought this might be as good a place as any to ask a question that's been niggling away at me for a few weeks now.  Apologies in advance since I'm pretty sure I'm going to find myself tumbling down the reverse slope of Mount Stupid as a result of this post...  Still, here goes:
Is there a chance that Putin is now trying to get NATO into this war?
If Russia can probably-but-definitely-not blow up some gas lines; sabotage the odd power-supply cable to a NATO member; unleash a low-level cyber attack on a few airports and continually attack Ukrainian civilian targets can they goad NATO into an overt conventional confrontation that gives Putin the excuse he needs to withdraw from Ukraine?  Can he then claim that Russia was forced to invade Ukraine by insidious NATO, who then sprang the trap, stabbing Russia's mighty armed forces in the back?  Maybe that allows Russians to swerve the cognitive dissonance caused by a defeat to Ukraine and instead spit at the treachery employed by the Anglo-Saxon-dominated West to subdue mighty Russia?  Most importantly, maybe all that keeps Putin in power?
It has to be sold as purely NATO's plan to get involved, so provocations have to be relatively subtle and ideally plausibly-deniable.  It will lead to Russia's total military defeat but that's basically already the case, if not now then imminently so. 
I also think it could be well worth NATO refusing to grant Putin such an excuse, even if it means this war lasting longer than otherwise necessary (I hate myself for writing it, don't worry).  Our goal is to drive a long-term cultural change in Russia and for that reason we have to deny them the ability to cry foul and to resolve to try again or even to get 'revenge' in future.  In my opinion it was the denial of such plausible counter-narratives to 1940s Germany and Japan which carried a lot of weight in the post-war period.  The aggressors have to think, nay know that they tried violence, they threw everything at it and, in a square fight, they failed.
I have half a dozen other directions from which to come at this and I really don't like the way it potentially 'justifies' NATO inaction but this post is already long enough and I'm interested in what you good people think.

Definition of inflection point
1 : a moment when significant change occurs or may occur.   From an historical perspective, the exact timing of civilian/military uprisings can be hard if not impossible to predict.  As has been discussed previously it can be something as small as a Tunisian burning himself in protest, or something more catastrophic.   The recent significant Ukrainian advances/Russian losses, uptick in internal Russian political and military maneuvering, mobilization,  hundreds of thousands of Russian men leaving the country, increase in depth and breadth of warnings to Putin about using nukes coming from multiple countries.   And now this.  We may have just reached that inflection point.      Did the Ukrainians intentionally wait until a moment such as this to blow the bridge?  (Assuming they did it.)

Ukrainian PsyOps targeted at Russian mobiks morale is in full swing; pretty good speech by Reznikov: