FancyCat

Are we sure that Wagner is going into retirement into Belarus? Obviously their operations worldwide continue, and if I was Prig, I would want to see Wagner keep acting as an active military unit, cementing his legitimacy and retaining influence. Would also force MoD to keep supplying him. And while we certainly have seen little incursions by Russia into North Ukraine, I feel like Wagner might feel differently about fighting, and again, it gives him the ability to retain the spotlight, steal MoD shine, keep himself from getting taken out in Belarus.

I mean at this point, Putin’s lack of control has been unmasked. Example, how did the intelligence services miss this? You don’t need to invade Moscow, capture Putin, or any further than what Wagner got actually, to see that Putin’s presence is severely diminished, his orders aren’t being obeyed, that clearly Prig had help and allies, can we say the coup didn’t succeed? It depends on the next days and so, but dynamic has changed. But we gotta see what happens to Shoigu and Gerasimov. Where the hell are they?

I don’t think it serves the coup plotters, whatever faction or group, to overthrow Putin and break the legitimacy of government and state. They fear the chaos of the 90s. Better to go to Putin and tell him he no longer controls things, and now changes will be done by this faction with veiled legitimacy, and a gun in the form of Wagner or otherwise, so it would be best to obey. putin does hold legitimacy domestically and internationally, whatever blow he takes, is still better than the void caused by militarily invading Moscow and arresting him and his inner circle. (Assuming it isn’t some of them in on the plot, assuming this exists)

I think they get to choose, sign contracts with MoD to stay in Ukraine or stay with Wagner and be deployed to one of Wagner's other missions. Originally it was sign contracts with MoD to stay in Ukraine?

Recall our discussions about potential breakup scenarios for Russia? For example, the slow decline and continued allegiance to Moscow/Putin/central government yet just continued fracturing under the surface? Random commentor, but my point is that ruling Russia requires a lot of alliances and agreements made with the right people, and Prig probably isn't able to make them being who he is, he's just likely to end up the puppet of some Moscow faction, get pushed into a vulnerable corner where they get to stab him in the back.

Tbh I'm not sure if Ukraine gained much or even i think lost a bit. Depending on the terms of Wagner and Prig in Belarus, Ukraine may need to deal with a armed force that can and is willing to attack the north. One thing to remember sure, Prig called the war goals and reasoning lies and falsehoods, but it is extremely clear the Russian people have been lobotomized politically, the Russian elite content with invading Ukraine. Reasoning means nothing domestically, only the material reality. Reality is war is profitable, especially for people like Prig who gained power, wealth off of the SMO, and certainly staying the war promises continued reasoning and material for existence. The prospect of war, the loot, the pay clearly is enough to gain some sort of semibalance of manpower increase. Consider the fact Wagner has noted victories, certainly a portion of low ranking sympathy for Prig is in the fact that he has wins. End of the day, no matter who rules in Russia, everyone seems to agree that killing Ukrainians is perfectly fine. Only that they aren't killing them effectively or doing what's needed to kill them.

Let's dial it back some. Prig was about to lose his power and life?, he called MoD's bluff? Neither want to do full scale gang war, so having shown he can escalate, he gets to live, gets to do something in Belarus, keeps a small army, and gets actual power recognition by everyone including Putin. If it ain't some Turkish coup power play, maybe reality is taking over the Russian state isnt easy, nor exactly desired...plus a cook ain't becoming head of state. He probably would have been quietly rid of had he gotten to Moscow and trapped by bureaucracy.

Turkish coup that failed.....same story here? I dunno but Wagner sounds dissolved...

Well ****. Not great for Ukraine.

Hmm is likely really true? I think it's definitely likely that FSB knew or factions of it were aware. They have to be, this coordinated action and Putin looking like a fool definitely requires loyal parts to Putin to have failed him.

Late Han dynasty vibes, the Emperor a figurehead.

Warlords....we have been acting like they must toss Putin from power, but it's not exactly clear cut as that, as any usurper would lack any legitimacy domestically or internationally. Legitimacy matters for the normal functioning of state, from which the money flows for the powerful. If Prig can toss his enemies in the MoD, ensure his power and authority increase, he doesn't need to overthrow or kill Putin necessarily. Will he need to look around for knives? Sure but I feel like he understands that and is fine with it.

Denial of resources to Wagner? Crikey.

If this lasts longer without Wagner or Putin winning, both sides will have to start involving forces in Ukraine, plenty of whom may be sympathetic to Wagner and probably plenty loyal to Putin. Spanish civil war vibes, where both sides ferry in loyal troops, Africa for Wagner, Syria for Putin, and how long before units in Russia start shooting each other? Christ.

Wagner would never lie.