Maquisard manqué

I’m with you on this. If you’re not in the trenches, I don’t think you have the same right to shed basic respect for humanity. When you’re half way round the world looking at this through twitter scopes, not personally implicated in this, I feel we actually have a responsibility not to drop decent values. 

That does presuppose the existence or possession of said values, which isn’t evident or granted of course.

Steve,
Your premise seems to hinge on me not fully understanding the need to relentlessly curb stomping of the russian war machine, in all its constituent parts, into submission - well beyond Ukraines borders of 2013 and the capacity of it threatening any of its neighbours.
I can assure you that notion is completely unfounded… 
The thing is, that at the same time I genuinely believe that “we” are fighting for certain values. Values that does not really include the unnecessary degradation of human beings (that definitely being everyone of us). 
My point here, in the forum context, is that he did’t post that video, made into a meme, on this forum. “We” did that. And what does that say about us? 
That said, I have zero interest in a prolonged discussion on this point. I love the thread and follow it religiously for all it gives. It really is a haven of sanity and life-affirming absurdity.
Please consider my post a soft voice, whispering in your ear as we roll along the colonnades on our triumph.

Having seen the actual clip that the picture originates from, knowing that it is an image of a human being in a moment of absolute terror and anguish, I personally am revolted by its use in a meme. I know full well that my emotions are shaped by what might be described as the arrogance of a western comfort, but could we please refrain from going that much orc and refrain from posting gore here?
 
Looking into the abyss and all that… 

I understand what you're getting at, but maybe using 'genocide' in that specific context isn't your best play?
I also feel that stealing land from one country to give it to two others while evicting the legal occupants is probably not a great way to maintain the moral high ground or credibility.
 

1. Another video for the future scenario and mapmaking files. Hostomel.
2.  Pimp my ride, Varangian edition.
3. Reaching out and touching someone....
4.  A tank vs tank kinetic kill?  Pretty rare in this war, at least captured on drone camera...
 
 

The problem is that there are fewer washing machines when you go around a city 🤔

There is also a shock effect on western sensibilities.  We have not seen a war like this, even from afar, in some time (or at least not one we pay attention to - sorry Yemen).   We are invested in the war, but it does not look like any war we have been in since Vietnam or Korea.  For example, attacking a peer force that is dug in, 5:1 casualties is not crazy at the tactical level in an attack, they are trading lives for results and that is an equation we have simply forgotten.  None of our recent wars, and we had days on them trust me, are anywhere close to this.  In fact if we had an entire platoon wiped out in Iraq of Afghanistan it would have had major political results.  We make the mistake of applying our old metrics to this fight and they do not add up because this is a very different fight.

So this is interesting - we are now talking operational options.  Russian offensive options have pretty much condensed to what we saw in the Donbas over the summer.  But UA does not appear interested in compressing Russian offensive option space any further, because it really does not have to.  They are now working on compressing defensive options space though projection of dilemma.
What is interesting is that if you look at the whole war so far it has been one long dying of Russian options:
- Phase I saw strategic option spaces collapse from quick win-to-siege urban areas-to-'Donbas' while terrorizing as best can everywhere. 
- Phase II saw operational offensive options reduced to basically zero and all that has been left is "stalemate/long war and hope the west loses interest", particularly once they went into the operational pause that never ended.
- Now in Phase III we are seeing Ukraine attack and compress operational defensive options spaces, which of course can break stalemate and counter western ennui - because we love a winner.  Russia is having to chose where to defend because they simply do not have enough forces to cover an 850km frontage, so UA hits them at both ends at the same time.
It is a steady consistent trend of collapsing Russian options space, which is why I am not sure why there are still commentators in the main stream that see this any other way.  Unless the Russians can open up other options spaces - beyond the insanity of calling for WMDs - then this war will continue to go in the direction it has been since about 27 Feb.
People can talk kit, stuff and training all day but until we see Russian options spaces either turn around, or they are able to compress Ukraine's options spaces, this whole thing has the same feel it has had since the beginning, watching Russia lose in slow motion...until it isn't slow anymore.

Ukrainian forces hit Russian Su-25 aircraft near Volokhovy Yar, Kharkiv Oblast
 

He lived, so this very funny, instead of very tragic. He will also feature in training films in 17 languages.🤣😅😵

Letting it get to a forward Log base/railhead, and then HIMARSing it achieves the depletion without the friendly casualties...

A sudden out break off Train fires in outermost Siberian nowhere has a great deal of appeal.

Not many to choose from is one of the big factors and many of those are in the middle of town and have a fair amount of security in and around them.  The Russian Embassy by comparison is accessible as it is outside the city centre.  The attack was clearly planned and IS-K had almost certainly gone there on days that the consular section was open to see what went on there.  That recce identified that there was a crowd to hide in and that Russian officials would come outside the embassy security perimeter to call people forward to get their visas which was the scenario in which the attack was made yesterday.  In security risk management terms a straight out case of an exploitable vulnerability.
The Pakistani Embassy, which used to be the British Embassy until 1994, is also pretty accessible for the same reason and that embassy also has lots of people outside it gathering for visas.  Of the two, and if I was in IS-K's shoes, I'd go for Russia because IS-K still relies on facilitation and recruitment via Pakistan.  This shouldn't be taken to mean that Pakistan is providing this - it is just where some recruitment happens and Pakistan's geography puts it adjacent to IS-K's stronghold in Kunar Province from which onward facilitation routes run.  It is of course no friend of the Pakistani government but far less hassle right now to target Russia because Russia isn't in a position to turn the screws on IS-K recruitment and facilitation. 
It is worth pointing out that IS-K is not the force it was in 2019 and now that it can't collaborate with the Haqqani Network in the way that it used to, it needs to pick and choose its targets carefully as well as implied above, ensure that its recruitment and logistics aren't disrupted.  Quite a few of the attacks this year have shown that IS-K is almost relearning its trade.  The August 31 attack on a Taliban military convoy in Kotal Khair Khana in Kabul's Police District 17 was a good example.  This was a VBIED and the intent was to target a bus full of Taliban military but the device was triggered too soon and a minibus with civilians aboard travelling in front of the military bus got the brunt of the blast.  That sort of botched execution was rare before August last year.
This attack was more about embarrassing the Taliban than attacking Russia although the suicide bomber made sure he got two of them.  The message was very much that the Taliban cannot keep foreign diplomats secure like they promised rather than Russia is a hated infidel country.
Other than that Steve ... I have no idea

Hold the phone a minute...Russia is purchasing millions of indirect fire ammo from NK.  I thought Russia had a bottomless ocean of artillery ammunition stocks?  Why do they need to buy more?  "HIMARS were a minor irritant and the RA was just going to blast the UA off the battlefield inch by inch with a never ending supply of ammo."
Whoops. 

At the heart of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the wait for "reinforcements" before considering new conquests
Source : Le Monde

You haven't been reading to the end of the ISW daily reports then... 
While there's defo some sympathetic citizens (as far as I, non-Ukrainian speaking western viewer can tell), the Ivan is using passportification to control access to basic services and aid.
You Need a water supply? Show us your Russian passport. You don't have one?  Well you're in Russia now, little brother  (no, no thank us later), Ukraine was a bad dream so here tick this box - and that box, give your name/address of  everyone in your extended family...
Ok done?... Right  sign here, congratulations you're a Russian citizen, Heil Putler, here's your permit for water.  Oh you want Electricity?  Got your Russian Passport? You need disability aid? Ok, show your Russian passport.  Need a parking spot?  Russian passport, please. Need a driver's licence?  Passport. Need a prescription?  Passport.  Need a library card?  Passport.  Need food aid?  Passport. Want to go to another city?  Passport.  No,  your Russian one, citizen. Oh and really you should help defend the Motherland from those child eating Nazis across the river,  so lucky you,  here's your papers,  Mobik, now you can thank us for liberating you -  with your life. 
You get the idea. 

This are words of Buk M1 battery commander Yarosalv Melnyk which was submited to the title Hero of Ukraine. This story as if happened in Kharkiv oblast in first weeks of the war. I doubt this is true, like and a story that oldman shot down Russian jet in Chernihiv with hunting rifle, where it flew over the roof of his house. Though, on the war can be anything and society during the war needs in such type of stories.
Also claimed his battery shot down 11 planes, 2 helicopters, 2 cruise missiles and 2 UAVs. As for me number of shot down planes obviously overestimated. I suppose, most of 236 jets, claimed  as shot down, indeed were decoys or just were "for good statistic". But this usual thing in any war. Each side in Korea, Vietnam, Israel-Arab wars claimed huge number of shot down aircraft and recognized minimal number of own losses. Since phone cameras, social networks and OSINT developmnet we can see more accurate picture 

Before the big war we had a crash of Su-25 with young pilot, who conducted a training flight on low altitude and hooked power lines. Also as I recall the same accident was with some helicopter Mi-2 or Mi-8
By the way, since 2015, when UKR aviation didn't participate in ATO, pilots big part of time had beeen training to fly and use weapon on extreme low altitude. During 2014 UKR aviation was used in "classic" way and suffered sensitive losses, so tactic was changed
  
 
 

Odyssey of UK-Russia relations continues on ...since Ben Wallace will be in new Cabinet and continue bullying poor Russians, and figures like Tom Tugendhat too, we can now expect new creative ways of showing Liz Truss as ultimate villain as well.
 

I´m pretty sure it is pure skill. As it was by example with the british mosquito pilots in WW2 flying incredible low to avoid AAA. Operation Carthage footage or Operation Jericho is testament to that.
 http://www.peoplesmosquito.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/487sqn-over-amiens-large.jpg
http://www.peoplesmosquito.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/kirkpatrick14.jpg
 
 
 

On level with a crop harvester...
 
 

Some UKR aviataion
 

Bezugla "intervention in comamnd line chain" as a reason of Siverodonetsk falling - this is ridiculous hype of Butusov, no more. She is nobody for military even though she came from President's office.
After Siverodonetsk, general Krasilnikov, which commanded of this direction was dismissed. And this is real reason of lossing of Siverodonetsk and Lysychansk - weak C&C, weak supply, weak comms as well as not motivated troops, abandoning positions. 
Whole Donbas direction is very problematic, alas. If on Izium axis our troops successfully withstanded against hordes of tanks and infantry on mostly open/forestry ground, that from Siverodonetsk to Bakhmut on heavy fortified prepared positions, industrial zones we had permanent problems. As I recall only on Donetsk direction we continously see video appeals of deserted soldiers in style "generals use us as cannon fodder, without cover". Only on Donbas direction we can read desperate posts of defenders Pisky and Bakhmut about poor arty support, where all artillery using is heavy centralized and artillery chiefs just ignore arty recon info and artillery just waste own shells - like Santa wrote "our arty fires just in the field in 800 m from the enemy, when I say to artillerists, what the hell, they just f...g me and say, that they hit all targets". When according to the same Santa's words helicopters fire own rockets in nowhere from maximum distance and on his pretensions HQ threaten him to leave Pisky without air support if he doesn't like somethig.    
The same on Soledar - Bakhmut. Lack of artillery, lack of supply, rifle battalion of 93rd brigade was badly hit by own artillery. Artillery of 58th brigade - poor battalion of D-20 with weared barrels can't hit anything, but arty chief of brigade f..d any pretensions. 
I don't know who is responsible for Donbas axis, some people write this is lt.-general Nayev, former JFO commander command there, and likely he and his HQ can't change situation to the last week, when Russians and DPR just lost enough fodder and slowed down own offensive. But Satna says in Pisky we lost "hundreds". And Bezugla wasn't there. So, I think, no sense to search black cat in dark room, especially if there is no cat in the room.    

If you try to read UKR social media you can encounter with many mentions and memes about watermelons. This is almost a symbol of Kherson oblast, which supply with own famous variety of watermelons "Khersonskyi" - big striped ones all country ) So, phrases and pictures about watermelons mean our offensive in Kherson )
  

Looking for a new job? Holy crap!