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G.I. Joe

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  1. Upvote
    G.I. Joe reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That is a possible explanation but maybe not necessary. German soldiers the 1944 Ardennes Offensive were highly motivated. And not (only) because they were fanatic Nazis but because they were finally attacking again. It gave them hope that maybe there was a chance to still win this war.
    Plus, just speculating here, definding in this war basically means waiting for the often invisible drone to find you followed by death raining from above without much you can do about it. This situation is in a way similar to soldiers in a trench in WW1. Although casualties, overall, weren't higher than in WW2, the number of traumatized soldiers was. The word "Kriegszitterer", something like shell shocked in english, was specifically used during WW1, WW2 had this much less because although fighting was no less fierce at least the front was moving.
    So, although attacking is probably still way more dangerous than defending, it at least gives a small sense of taking fate in your own hands.
  2. Upvote
    G.I. Joe reacted to Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The German-dutch 414th Tank Batallion now has a dutch commander. This is important since it means that the Netherlands have realized that the age of the tank is far from over. From the left to the right.: luitenant-kolonel Bas Schillemans, commander 43 Gemechaniseerde Brigade brigadegeneraal Roland de Jong and the German departing commander  Ruppelt Hagen.
    That the dutch army is still a force to be reckoned with, was last year proven by the international shooting competition Iron Wolf between Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Latvia, Norway, Poland  Spain, Slowakia, UK and US. A dutch tank crew, part of the enhanced Forward Presence in Lithuania, beat them all during the international shooting contest in Latvia and won the Gold medal. The dutch armored infantry, thanks to the CV90 APC, won Silver and only had to make place for Norway, which won the Gold.
    Still a long way to go, I know, but definitely important.

    https://www.defensie.nl/actueel/nieuws/2021/10/27/nederlandse-tankbemanning-nog-steeds-aan-de-top
  3. Upvote
    G.I. Joe reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You are very kind man. But declaring pro-murderous position that will result in death and destruction of your own nation is textbook definition of traitor.
  4. Upvote
    G.I. Joe reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    We may have our first morale test case in progress if the Russians can't break out. There is some indication it is a Naval infantry unit. There is not enough info to figure out if these are real infantry/marines, or just everyone from some godforsaken base near Vladivostok who did an insufficiently good job of looking busy, and or running like bleep when the base commander had to round up a battalion from nothing. 
  5. Like
    G.I. Joe reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    By and large, money is a terrible motivator. It's a great way to get people to start something (new job, sign a contract, join the army) but it's not what keeps people in the game when the game gets tough.
    Motivation is a famously tricky and slippery concept though, which folks have been pondering for quite a while.
    "in any 20-man platoon, there will be 6 gutful men who will go anywhere and do anything, 12 'sheep' who will follow a short distance behind if they are well led, 4-6 who will run away."
    LTCOL Lionel Wigram, 1943
    https://books.google.co.nz/books?id=We1HZDUTpdEC&pg=PA238&lpg=PA238&dq=wigram+gutful+men&source=bl&ots=HeHzOzGH1K&sig=ACfU3U315irwUvSjZBZ4knb_nj1dkaxg3A&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwisgOy79Ir5AhVF6nMBHWH3BSEQ6AF6BAgiEAM#v=onepage&q=wigram gutful men&f=false
    Wigram was the guy who started battle drill in the UK, early in WWII. He recognised that the existing training was wildly inappropriate, and while he was developing and running his battle schools he had occasion to think abut combat effectiveness, a lot. He had even more chance to think about it after he annoyed Montgomery, was demoted, and sent to lead a rifle company in Italy. Wigram was killed in action there. Gutfully.
  6. Upvote
    G.I. Joe reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Shooting lasers at fast missiles/ artillery shells has some inherent limitations involving dwell time. The engagement window is very short and it take a LOT of laser power to apply enough energy in the time available.  Drones though are the perfect laser target, since they are, at least in their current incarnation, mostly light weight and slow moving. Doubly so since blinding the optics is essentially as good as blasting it out of the sky. it doesn't matter that much if a slow moving drone at twenty kilometers range and six or eight thousand meters altitude takes tens seconds or twenty seconds for the laser to kill. What matters is being able to kill drones at those kinds of ranges, doing it for few hundred dollars a shot, and being able to do it all day long if the diesel holds out.
    Zelensky is EXTREMELY aware that the Ukrainian economy is going to be rebuilt by the European Union or nobody. Furthermore what ever assets most of the pre-existing Oligarchs held in Ukraine are pretty much rubble. The Azov steel mill being exhibit A. Both the mill and the private army that went with are casualties of this war. So not only is it now or never to reduce the oligarchs' power, but there are active economic rewards for doing so.
  7. Like
    G.I. Joe reacted to Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "A boy walks in a vegetable garden in front of the remains of a Russian battle tank, destroyed in the battles this spring, in the village of Velyka Dymerka, northeast of kyiv, on July 21, 2022. SERGEI CHUZAVKOV / AFP"
    *T-72A
  8. Upvote
    G.I. Joe reacted to Machor in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Shevchuk's "Умирали пацаны" - "The boys were dying" was the first song that I thought about when this war started, and one would understand why by looking at the lyrics; but first, the song itself:
    Shevchuk wrote this song after visiting the front during the First Chechen War, and here he's singing it to footage he himself shot in Chechnya:
    My attempt at a translation:
     
  9. Upvote
    G.I. Joe reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This gets to the point I am most interested in:  Does Putin refuse to bend to reality and continue to try to hold the west bank?  That is classic dictator choice.  He can lose Kherson, or he can lose Kherson and the army holding it.  Hitler continually chose the latter.  My hope is he throws everything into the fight and it turns into Kherson-ingrad.  Though maybe "Kherson Pocket 2.0" works also?  I wonder how many tanks & APCs are in the (soon to be) kessel?  
    If he leaves it will have a lot of negative impacts for public opinion & his standing, but he will also have some control in how he spins it.  "as a good will gesture we have temporarily chosen to leave Kherson" or some such.  I think UKR making it very public that Kherson will be attacked was an attempt to get RU to pull out, since it seems impossible to hold.  
  10. Like
    G.I. Joe reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Wow, that sounds like something straight out of Kremlin... 
  11. Upvote
    G.I. Joe reacted to Der Zeitgeist in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Especially with the war still running and Putin still in power. I don't think we ever had a constellation like this with war crime trials before. Not much they can do about it, though. Can't exactly invade the Netherlands.
  12. Like
    G.I. Joe reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If these war crime trials do happen they should be interesting.
  13. Upvote
    G.I. Joe reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So Kherson...ooo boy.  Well first off, I am buying off on the whole "traitor" theory that Kherson was likely sold-out, that or the UA simply got stretched too thin but this is the major southern axis so I do not see how they did not prioritize it - maybe they did and Russians down this way actually demonstrated talent.  Why?
    Well because on paper this city should be damn near impossible to take from the South:

    By my eyes there are roughly 5 crossing sites that one can pull from Google.  The Dnieper is a deep old river so I cannot tell if there are any fording sites but I doubt it.  Wiki says the Dnieper runs at about 1.5 m/sec which is fairly slow and easily swimmable and pontoon-able.  However, Kherson is right on a major delta stretch, to the point that a second river breaks out called the "Konka" (sp?).  Anyway this is a major water obstacle, like Rhine river "major".  The river itself ranges from 500-1000m but that is not the rub, it is the delta - that is a very angry and hungry looking swamp that looks like the mouth of a Dune Sandworm to mobility.  Sure you can pontoon the bridge but those wetlands look like they will eat Divisions, we are talking major road and causeway work in order to sustain.
    As I said there are 5 possible crossing sites: 
    -Starting on the far left, there is a possible amphibious run between Sofiivka and Rybal'Che but this is also a major undertaking.  That is a 12km run so we are basically talking D-Day but there is infrastructure on either side to support (I am not sure about the shoreline, would need to do an MSFS flight).
    - Then we have the Antonovskiy Bridge that the UA is currently turning into swiss cheese.  That is a 1000m crossing without the bridge and a lot of greenish looking swamp hell on the N bank.  Tough.
    - We then have what looks like a rail bridge called "Antonivsʹkyy Zaliznychnyy", not sure if it still up but it is about 6km upstream from the Antonovskiy.  If the UA did not blow that one up it will have to go as well (did a quick check but cannot see if it was already).
    - Next is what I think is the only decent amphib/pontoon site along this gawd-awful shoreline.  Just on the western outskirts of L'vov about 34 km up from the Antonovskiy there is what looks like a viable crossing site.  The south bank aint great but this is a hydro-electric line crossing so road infrastructure is there (note would have to do a second small bridging op about 1km to the east on a small inlet), which takes one up to an old monastery in Korsunka.
    - Last, is the road bridge at the Kakhovka hydro electrical station.  Looks modern and solid.
    After that further upstream the Dnieper expands out and although one could find a decent shore line we are basically back to D-Day.
    So What?  Well it is like Stalingrad, a city with it back to a major obstacle coming from the UA side.  All war is communication and retaking Kherson will send big political signals in all directions.  It would be a clear sign that the UA can do offensive in a major way, which should assist in shoring up the cottage-cheese spines of some in the West.  It would also be a major blow to Russia, effectively undeciding that entire front.  I am sure they will try and sell it as "we withdrew for the good of the people" noise but even the most doe-eyed Russian believer will have a seed of doubt planted.  
    So to the big question: how does the UA take Kherson? Well a couple schools of thought, first a Western solution:

    Coming from the Western School of Manoeuvre, the game here would be to cut off Kherson and choke it out, without having to do heavy urban combat.  So Shape, Manoeuvre, Isolate and Attrit would be the order of the day.  A big armored led spearhead thrust down from the North across all that wonderful tank country.  A bounce crossing on those two eastern sites, complete with SF, Airmobile snaps and then swing westward and cut the Russian LOCs completely.  Meanwhile keep the pressure on Kherson from the North, while using deep strike to Fix supporting forces.  Very nice, so long as one has air supremacy.  
    I will say it now, if the UA can do this, the war will be over much sooner than anyone thinks. As I have noted before, I have grown allergic to big bold strokes in this war.  The biggest issue, beyond establishing pre-conditions, is time-space-force.  That is about a 130 km thunder run and would likely take a couple modern heavy divisions to pull off, maybe three.  I do not think the UA has that kind of force, nor are they going to get the pre-conditions to support it.  I have no doubt that pundits will start drawing stuff like this...use it for profiling purposes.  I pray to god that the UA could pull off this offensive but I also do not think he is listening...very unlikely.  So what could a UA offense look like?

    Attrition-to-Manoeuvre, not the other way around.  The UA could compress Kherson and pull in a lot of RA in reaction.  With their superior ISR and deep strike they could do a lot of damage in depth - given the ranges, this whole thing at Antonovskiy could be a setup for ATACMS arrival.  If they start hitting EW, then UAS are also back on the menu.  As they compress Kherson, their artillery will pull in range as well.  As they pull and bleed the RA, an opportunity to do a North South offensive opens up but only take it to the bridge at the hydro-plant, while cutting every crossing.  You might bag the RA forces to the east.
    The major problem with this one is Kherson itself.  If the RA is trapped like rats, they will fight like them.  The UA could break itself in a city of that size (which they know after Mariupol).  My guess is that they will simply bleed the RA white here, hitting them once again along the entire length of the RA operational system.  This presents the modern dilemma of "stay and bleed out" or "withdraw, preserve force and lose the city", either way, so long as the UA can keep pulling the RA in and killing them in numbers while they try and hold onto Kherson it is a winnable situation.
    Key will be setting operational conditions and holding onto them.  Deep strike, deep strike and deep strike.  They need to keep hitting RA logistics to keep the RA guns silent and then the UA guns can go to work on the rest without fearing overwhelming c-btty.
    How is it actually going to go down...no idea.  In fact it might not happen at all, the whole thing could be a feint.  But one thing is for sure, it has got the Russians wondering.  And on the battlefield uncertainty on your opponent is a useful thing. 
  14. Like
    G.I. Joe reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    ohhhhhhh, it's not actually a cat -- that actually totally changes it for me, thx!  I do love military-naval sci fi.
    back on track:  So w your air force background, you think F16 is good way forward for UKR?   A few months of training I think you or someone said earlier?  Maintenence?  Logistics?  Or is F16 story just sci fi? 
     
  15. Like
    G.I. Joe reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My favorite sci fi author - CJ Cherryh Just a few of her pile of novels
    The Chanur novels - Wikipedia
  16. Like
    G.I. Joe reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Very true, however agency was also dangerous (still is) as it was how formations failed and collapsed.  It is super interesting to look back at warfare back and then and see it as far more complicated than we assume.  The Roman’s likely wrestled with the balance between agency and formation as much as we do.  For more on pre-civilization warfare Turney-High and Lawrence Keeley have laid down some foundational works.  The punch line was that historically speaking when small-high agency met large formation mass, mass won…eventually.  And then the Romans built what looks like smarter more agile mass, which makes me wonder if they did not inculcate some of the tribal approaches.
    I am sure official histories tell how colonial wars were sideshows quickly forgotten but that is not really how military culture works.  We tend to admire those we fight, particularly if they do it well.  The lessons of our opponents tend to leech into the bloodstream.  We definitely saw this one the North American continent with the (re) invention of Light Infantry mirroring indigenous warfare and in most cases fighting along side them.
    I personally find tribal based pre-history warfare fascinating, but that is me.
  17. Like
    G.I. Joe got a reaction from sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Personally, I find the Boomer-bashing rather sad, just like any other kind of stereotyping. (Crazy to think that at 41, I'm technically young enough to be a Millennial).
    What I find amusing is the circularity of it...read a few rants about Millennials and it's exactly what the G.I. Generation were saying about Boomers fifty years ago, back when their generation was popularising "Never Trust Anyone Over 30" pins. I suspect people will always be mixing up age effects and cohort effects.
  18. Like
    G.I. Joe got a reaction from Splinty in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Insanity indeed... Doubly hilarious for fans of David Weber's Honor Harrington series, because it seriously sounds like they cribbed it straight off of the Final War on Old Earth in the Honorverse backstory.
  19. Like
    G.I. Joe reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Big props must go to Ukraine for her relentless advocacy for the equipment and weapons needed to defeat Russia, and their intelligence in using what limited Western equipment they get to hurt Russia and illustrate further shipments are well used but if Biden pulls off the complete defeat of Russia in Ukraine thru the slow, seemingly lackluster supply of Ukraine, it will be a masterclass in IR management of nuclear power proxy conflict.
    While everyday I wish for F-16s in Ukrainian colors to fly over Ukrainian territory, I will settle for the strategy of providing very little to Ukraine, then more.
     
  20. Upvote
    G.I. Joe reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The problem (which is the same basic problem for all bridges)  with Thanh Hoa was that they couldn't /hit/ the damn thing. Approximately one day after PGMs arrived in Vietnam, the bridge was gone.
  21. Upvote
    G.I. Joe reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    UKR has historical grounds to annex heartland of RU. There is a reason why Putin called Grand Prince of Kiev Yaroslav the Wise Russian. To fully understand the extent of the issue, check the location of the historically well-known RU city Yaroslavl that the Prince founded. 

     
  22. Upvote
    G.I. Joe got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Insanity indeed... Doubly hilarious for fans of David Weber's Honor Harrington series, because it seriously sounds like they cribbed it straight off of the Final War on Old Earth in the Honorverse backstory.
  23. Like
    G.I. Joe reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I have an exclusive image showcasing one of the new Ukrainian Biolab™ created super soldiers.
     
  24. Upvote
    G.I. Joe reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    To give you a sense of the actual politics in the US vs the media take du jour, the related House vote for Finland and Sweden joining NATO:

  25. Upvote
    G.I. Joe reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is bigger than munitions dumps at these ranges; railheads, industry, IT infrastructure and airfields as a start.  We are basically looking at ersatz air superiority effects without the need of aircraft, at strategic ranges.  And again, we know western ISR can see all those targets.
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