G.I. Joe

You haven't been reading to the end of the ISW daily reports then... 
While there's defo some sympathetic citizens (as far as I, non-Ukrainian speaking western viewer can tell), the Ivan is using passportification to control access to basic services and aid.
You Need a water supply? Show us your Russian passport. You don't have one?  Well you're in Russia now, little brother  (no, no thank us later), Ukraine was a bad dream so here tick this box - and that box, give your name/address of  everyone in your extended family...
Ok done?... Right  sign here, congratulations you're a Russian citizen, Heil Putler, here's your permit for water.  Oh you want Electricity?  Got your Russian Passport? You need disability aid? Ok, show your Russian passport.  Need a parking spot?  Russian passport, please. Need a driver's licence?  Passport. Need a prescription?  Passport.  Need a library card?  Passport.  Need food aid?  Passport. Want to go to another city?  Passport.  No,  your Russian one, citizen. Oh and really you should help defend the Motherland from those child eating Nazis across the river,  so lucky you,  here's your papers,  Mobik, now you can thank us for liberating you -  with your life. 
You get the idea. 

**** yeah - keep em flying! 
 
(Out of reactions for the day!) 

Before the big war we had a crash of Su-25 with young pilot, who conducted a training flight on low altitude and hooked power lines. Also as I recall the same accident was with some helicopter Mi-2 or Mi-8
By the way, since 2015, when UKR aviation didn't participate in ATO, pilots big part of time had beeen training to fly and use weapon on extreme low altitude. During 2014 UKR aviation was used in "classic" way and suffered sensitive losses, so tactic was changed
  
 
 

+1, out of reactions.
Indeed. I know this is a very Commonwealth thing for me to say, but we really need a Remembrance poppy reaction...

I´m pretty sure it is pure skill. As it was by example with the british mosquito pilots in WW2 flying incredible low to avoid AAA. Operation Carthage footage or Operation Jericho is testament to that.
 http://www.peoplesmosquito.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/487sqn-over-amiens-large.jpg
http://www.peoplesmosquito.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/kirkpatrick14.jpg
 
 
 

Ref that YouTube "analysis".  That really feels like they're behind the learning curve of this war, by about 4 months. The idea of a fast crumpling and penetrationif of the RUS outer shell is a very classic, pre-war NATO mindset, formed and dominated by theory, think tanks and dry exercises. It doesn't match current reality and immediate history of this war or,  crucially, the observed UKR style, which seems a unique blend of operational carefullness and tactical hyper-brass-ballery. It's pretty obvious the current UGS has the measure both of the Ivan and their own forces, and these particular analysts absolutely do not.
Also, some of their thoughts are really not that thought out. 
Eg Ref the pipes, how do you cross a the river with these?  Lay above the water or below it. Ok, let's try above, so on the bridges or a pontoon. But,  HIMARS, so bridges are Nope and the pontoons are unfinished.  What about below the surface?
Well, anything on water requires significant (read, highly visible) engineering and support. Now triple that at least for under water,  because currents. River currents are the worst ex-partner ever, sucking up money and wasting time in a wildly uncaring and relentless manner. 
You don't just drop the pipes on the river bed and hope for the best, at the very least you need to dig a trench,  lay the pipe then cover it,  all the time fighting the current,  which can be significantly stronger at the bottom.
You could leave them naked on the bed -  but,  you're really,  really taking a chance with debris damage. No river bed is static because currents, plus river currents change drastically seasonally and even daily. A change in current carves a different shaped bed, brings debris and pressure from a different angle and unless you have a high grade, flexible  (read, high tech) pipe joint that can deal with that fundamental nature of riverine sub-marine engineering then you are SOOL.
Also,  to do anything significant on, in, or underwater you need divers.  Theyll have their own boat, they'll always be nearby,  tracking the construction  and will have a base onshore (even just some SUVs parked together, but if you know what to look for... ). They're not  usually more than a tiny footprint within the operation as a whole but they are absolutely necessary and can be easily visually identified. 
There's wayy more than this,  but I've got kids to feed and yell at. 
P. S. Finally,  the pipe has the to Enter/exit the water somewhere. That requires, no negotiation, a shore-side, long run submarine ramp to run the pipe up to and over/through the river bank without drastic kinks in angle. This ramp entrance/exit requires you to carve  a cutting in the river bank or break through existing riverine construction, so again, highly visible. 
How do I know this? Basic initial analysis on my part, background as an Architect,  Google plus a very high tech process of asking a marine engineer (my cousin in Australia) via text. Super difficult,  yup. 
---
These guys are B-grade. 
And I mean No offense to you, @Huba. You do great stuff here, I want to be clear. Big fan. 
Now,  I really gotta go yell at the brats. 

Exactly. This isn’t rock/paper/scissors. It is a contingent process with ebbs and flows, reactions and counter reactions. It’s also, given how little data we really possess, somewhat of a fruitless endeavor to try and make a judgement on that sort of data. What we *do* know is that Russia profoundly lacks manpower. We know that the RA is, if not demoralized, then close to it. And we know it is under pressure and retreating in some areas in the Kherson oblast. I’ll take that over a possibly specious point about pipelines.

I'm late to the party due to a business trip, but to comment on the Prague protests.
The political parties organizing it were 1) SPD ("common man" far right party, claiming to be direct democracy party - basically nazis) 2) Tricolor ("intellectual" far right party, basically nazis in suits) and 3) Communists (actual Stalinists who renamed themselves after the revolution, sadly never got banned). None of these parties had any success in last elections, by the way, and all are basically known to be getting Kremlin money.
They were protesting for 1) leaving the EU 2) leaving the NATO 3) leaving the WHO (... wtf) 4) "not diluting Czech nation with Ukrainian refugees" 5) removing sanctions and buying Russian gas 6) some other nonsense like people being give 3 MWh of electricity every year or something.
So yeah - nazis, antivaxxers, commies, traitors and idiots.
Some of us have already made arrangements to run a counter-protest in case they do this again - it is true that we got bit blindsided by there being so many of these scum.

Would Ukraine have that hard of a time figuring out where Russian pipelines were given US ISR and analytical capabilities plus their own on the ground humint? Actually…no, they wouldn’t. That strikes me as one of those things that experts say to sound smart but…well….isn’t.

Yup, exactly. I value this podcast very much, as it often brings unique pieces of data (like the mentioned underwater pipelines, who would have thought?) but the overall analysis from Wolski is rather narrowed down to traditional "big war" operational thinking, which as we established here, is not working  100% anymore.
Edit:
Bayraktaring is becoming a thing on the Kherson front it seems:
 

I guess that means that there is no 2nd silicon valley hidden somewhere behind the Urals...
 
 

Some UKR aviataion
 

Been tracking this guy since the beginning and he is a stain on our profession at this point.  According to him the entire UA was wiped out in Mar.  Of course how a "destroyed force" managed to force generate 3 fighting brigades able to go on an offensive in 3-4 months kinda slips out of the narrative. (and I seriously doubt that was the actual number - although if 12000 troops are doing this much damage to approx twice that number of RA then they UA clearly still has 'game'.).
The guy is out now and can say whatever he wants, but it is pretty clear which side he is on in this thing - I use him as a inverted truth barometer though.  

If you try to read UKR social media you can encounter with many mentions and memes about watermelons. This is almost a symbol of Kherson oblast, which supply with own famous variety of watermelons "Khersonskyi" - big striped ones all country ) So, phrases and pictures about watermelons mean our offensive in Kherson )
  

unregulated free markets would quickly evolve to trusts and monopolies.  Free market requires competition, which companies all hate, of course, and would smash if they had the market power and capital to do so. 
Free market capitalism, like democracy, is the best system humans have.  But it's not a magic rainbow pony and requires some amount of regulation.  Too much and you stifle innovation.  Too little and the free market has no competition and consumers get fleeced w/o recourse.  People love to think they are 100% free market proponent -- until they need health care at age 65, where there is no free market solution simply because old people are so expensive to insure that no one could afford it except the very rich.  Then they wants that awful socialism.  None of this stuff is black & white, it's all a balance that is constantly being adjusted.
The big picture is that gov'ts intervene when for whatever reason the market gets wrecked in a way that hurts the people too much -- like now, w Putler.  The market will adjust to Putler's extortion racket but it can't do it instantly.  Meanwhile the gov't can't have thousands of old & children freezing to death because they can't afford heat.  So might be subsidy, might be price control, or any of a number of tricks, all of which would hopefully be temporary until a functioning market can return.
For this Ukraine discussion, what matters is that gov'ts do what they can to soften the economic damage so that support for Ukraine continues and we don't get pro-Putin demagogues elected due to angry populace. 
Having said all that, I must now leave for religious obligations.  The Ohio State Buckeyes Football Team, most beloved in The Creator's eyes, is on the telly!

Depending on situation either may be right.  Having an argument where there isn't a more complex or compromising view is usually unproductive but probably more so in economics.  Regulations have a place but aren't necessarily the right answer to everything.  Either way... we are once again diverging.  I think that is what happens when we have periods without really clear info as to what is happening.  OpSec can be such a pain at times!  😛

We need to wait till murals at Moscow start to appear a la Teheran ones. Little cunning Sheytan leading Great dumb Sheytan, and all of that; just changing the flags. Perhaps Iranians can throw some talented street artists extra in addition to their drones.
They kinda did, however probably inadvertly. We can only guess what American intell originated from, but can be pretty sure they have some cutting edge futuristic mambo-jambo to tap most Russian officials. If one remember what Pegasus could do- which was commercial Alpha version of software of small company from relatively minor country- on Putin's place I would not even try to imagine what US has at its disposal.
ED: Yup, Dark Brandon vibes are probably strong at Kremlin. And good, let them fear the shadows.

Never underestimate the ability of people to back issues that actually aren't in their real interest.

An absolutely amazing thread, analyzing RU positions around Chornobayivka. Against recon like this I can't see them standing for long... 
 

Great news!
 
 

Likely SOF walked through the border %)
 

This night Russians launched five Kalibrs on Dnipro city, all misisiles were intercepted by AD. Likely this is third time, when our AD neutralizes mass salvo completely 

There's going to be a lot of heavy equipment left on the western side that can't be pulled out by ferry. All easily used and ammo'ed up by the Ukrainian forces.
Another useless attempt to stave off disaster along a bad position near a river in order to hold a city for political gain.
 

Phillips OBrien on EW, always worth a read:
 
 

About a week ago, there was video of Excalibur rounds hitting soft skin vehicles and a dugout.  Those are clearly airburst rounds... the signature explosion is unmistakable.
Edit:  I was an artillery officer for 17 years and a forward observer for most of that time.  Airburst rounds go off at a optimal 7 meters for variable time (VT) fuzes.  Depending with distance and angle of view, that is low enough that an airburst can be mistaken for a normal point detonation fuze burst.  So chances are good that airburst fuzes are being more commonly used...but we are not clearly seeing it in videos...because the 7 metre height and seeing if from a drone video (mainly overhead angle) from hundreds of metres distance makes the airburst look like a ground graze burst.