G.I. Joe

I don't know if it's bias so much as hindsight. We have over 75 years of history to show that the Marshall Plan and the MacArthur shogunate worked. If we were having this discussion eighty years ago, I'm sure most of the people calling for collective punishment of Russia would be taking a similar line towards Germany, Japan and Italy...

Thanks for saying out loud the bit part, Allen.
The last few days in this thread have made me quite uncomfortable as folks were fantasizing about breaking up the Russian Federation as if if they were playing Paradox Interactive's Europa Universalis, where you invade a country like France and partition it into bits like the Duchy of Brittany and the Principality of Burgundy to ensure that it doesn't come back to eat you... or giving a nation the treatment of vampires in the traditions of the Southern Balkans, where vampires are gone only when you pretty much cut them up into teeny tiny bits and set them of fire. All this talk of obliterating this and that without even pausing 1 second to consider the enormity of what is being proposed and the means necessary to carry it out may be okay for a couple posts, but after days of writing in circles, honestly it is a bit tiring.
Hobbesian man-eats-man anarchy isn't a good state of affairs in international relationships (I think).

Thats fundamentally ridiculous and completely off the rails, logic-wise.
To be clear, I'm from a country that was invaded and oppressed for about 800 years, suffering very intensive and determined cultural eradication efforts, many many deliberate massacres of civilians, brutal repression of rebellions, exploitations as serf-like domestic servants and military cannon fodder, colonisation and economic exploitation, deliberate official neglect during multiple famines, intolerance of religion, execution of POWs and supression/extinction of the native language.
In some ways I'm probably more aware of it than many of my compatriots as I'm a fluent Gaelic speaker, through primary school and secondary in Gaelic immersion, and so I'm more aware of what has been lost and destroyed. Its like with the dinosaur fossil record - what we find and see is but a tiny fraction of what actually existed. So with indigenous Irish culture, what's left, what's survived to here and now is very likely just a sad echo of what was and what could have been. That's one of the unending tragedies of every colonisation process, the denial of what-might-have-been, to the eternal loss of human culture in general.
For eight centuries.
So my bona fides, as far as I'm concerned, are unassailable.
But it would be stupid for me to equate a Staffordshire farmer, paying his taxes and trying to muddle through from one season to the next, with the relentlessly brutal and imperialistic policies of the regime of the time.
A British Army officer suppressing a rebellion with wholesale slaughter of rebel prisoners, yup, hang 'em high. They were directly and deliberately implementing the HMG policies/attitudes1.
But they're not the same person, the Farmer (and his family, by implication and actual effects) and the Officer,  and deserve very different fates. 
You're not a stupid person. You're very articulate, your English is excellent and you have very salient points which you're able to cogently argue through. You have enormous grounds for hate and anger and which, as I've stated before (and my paragraph above will help support), I fully agree with why you'd feel that. You have every right as a Ukrainian to hate Russians.
But this is frankly hate for hate's sake, and that just breeds more death. There's no thought in a sentence like the one quoted above, just emotion and ranting. And like I said, I get it. I've absorbed enough accounts and writings from history to feel the intense anger of my people through the hundreds of years of English/British rule. So I'm no stranger to your sentiments.
But the point stands and, for this leprechaun-sounding paddy, you're doing yourself a disservice and ruining your own arguments and credibility with this death spiral of useless, vacant vitriol.
This is not the place (you'll achieve nothing here) and your energy is far better spent helping your country or relating what's going on there than this cul-de-sac argument over how to properly punish "the Ivan".
I beg you to stop.
 
 
1 The rebel atrocities were just as heinous and damnable and, crucially, further solidified the "savage peasant"  image of the Irish. Later on, in the 19/20th centuries that helped make rebellion "uncool"  for many middle class Irish.  It took some blatant whitewashing and outright denial to help clean the idea of independence from the stain of Irish crimes against civilians. 

I think this is on-topic, so will post.  There's a kid that I linked to in post a couple days ago.  he's been posting on YT since war started about life in Russia -- Petersburg, specifically.  I kept thinking SHUT UP because I figured FSB would not like his posts.  Then I starting thinking GET OUT as he started posting about the mobilization exodus.  And then in recent post I thought "why is he posting in a hotel??".  
Now I know.  He was trying to flee.  He's got a YT that will go live soon, but he indicates that he is already out of RU.  I am actually really glad for this kid.  He's harmless and is an example what Russia should be -- peaceful people wanting to cleanup their own country.   So I am posting this an anecdote to illustrate the exodus is not just RU nats that are avoiding the fight but also just scared kids that didn't want the war in the first place.
 

Maybe we can start a different thread, something like "all the bad things US is doing & has done".  That's fine, I'm US and we've done some despicable things.  And we've done a huge amount of good.  Go ahead and criticize all day -- in that thread.   Heck, let's start w Nicaraugua, 1926.  
And maybe start another thread "let's bitch about Stolz & Germany".  Lots of valid point to be made there.
If we could do these two threads it would really clean up this thread which has been the go-to for many people on what is happening in the war.  I want to be diligent in this forum and not post w/o having read everyone's earlier posts.  But this thread is getting polluted w endless speculation and bitching about things over which we have no control.  

Deleted

The chaos is part of the charm...

The thing about Putin just not doing the leg work...or perhaps I should say, not breaking legs until the legwork is done semi-properly...is sticking in my craw a bit. Yes, Russia's got a lot going on right now. Yes, war is really hard and friction's a bitch. Yes, cultural shambolism is going to be there wherever Russian militancy is sold. But...they are *losing* a war that could have them swinging from gibbets if it gets much worse and it's been obvious to anyone even if they have any access to Western media...which Putin certainly does. They *know* that just dumping bodies into the field, pointing and saying "Kyiv's that way" is barely even a stopgap. They *know* screwing mobilization this badly from the get just multiplies every other problem down the line. 
I can't help but think that this looks a lot like a government that's phoning it in because there's nothing much in the way of direction from the top. Something's up with Putin either cognitively or in terms of his power to direct the state. It's that simple. 
 

Nah. NATO’s Reanimation is seen as a major accomplishment here - even largely as bipartisan, and a reversal of at least some of USA failures. Not to mention that it is intrinsically a win for the post WWII stability that has enabled economic growth. Imperfect, challenges along the way. But proven by events to still be of great value.

Well thanks for this to start.  I firmly believe you are correct.  Ukraine has waged this war well within the law of armed conflict, frankly demonstrating admirable restraint with respect to POWs and especially targeting within Russia itself - a master class in precision strikes against legitimate military targets.  
Further, if any Russian picks up a weapon and deploys to Ukraine, he has earned the right to be engaged until he is dead or no longer a combatant - all stop.  Further those responsible for the egregious Russian war crimes must be prosecuted.  Finally, reparations must be made by Russia to pay for this war.
Russia needs to definitively  lose this war and frankly has already.  I personally do not like the idea of a collapsed and fractured Russia, too many unknowns and risks; however, if it the only way this goes, so be it.
Ukraine needs to definitively win, and will.  At least to pre-war borders and they are fully entitled to re-taking the pre-2014 lines, we have talked about the risks there too.
However, one thing I have learned over the last three decades is that winning means more than on the battlefield, it means whatever comes next.  I have zero doubts that there is a minority in Ukraine that share the same sentiments, and I really do get why.  But as a nation Ukraine needs to rise above it and become the regional counter-power it has already demonstrated it can be.
Kraze is entitled to his opinion and all; however, I will not leave his calls for more atrocity and crimes on the table unchallenged.  Anymore than if a Russian poster came here trying to justify the same.
 

This approach was quite common amongst Americans before the end of WWII. I don't blame them and I won't blame you however much I abhor it. And I abhor it because it's exactly the kind of thinking that you are and should be fighting against. In the event, wiser heads prevailed and we took a softer course. As a result, our enemies then became, almost unthinkably, some of our best Allies. That's maybe something you should consider. 

I am going to ignore most of your rant, frankly if anyone were to push that kind of hatred towards any other group they would get tossed off this forum pretty quickly; however, we live in odd times.  
The Russian military and political system are responsible for this war.  I have no doubt some of the population does as well; however to blame an entire people - who you don’t recognize as a people, yet point to them as an evil homogeneous empire that has been a threat for hundreds of years - down to many who have nothing to do with this or actively opposed it, nor had a say in it because Russia lacks a democratic system, is wrong on so many levels.
If in your fractured Russian scenario - the one you are promoting, and I notice no denial of you promoting cultural genocide either btw- Russian elderly, women and children show up on on your borders in a humanitarian crisis I expect you and your nation to be better than the a$$holes we are currently supporting your nation against.  If you cannot do that - and for the record I really do not believe you represent your nation - then why are we even bothering with this whole war?  If a post-war Ukraine is suppressing democracy in re-taken regions, actively supporting civil strife in former Russian fragments (which would have to be in your plan), and let potentially thousands of people die because of their ethnicity (oh wait Russian isn’t a thing, so, how will you tell who to keep out) - the what the hell are we defending here?
If we wanted a brutal regime in Ukraine to ignore human rights and suppress freedoms based on pseudo-ethnicity then why we didn’t we just sit back and let Russia take the damn place?
I stand with Ukraine in this war, but I do not stand with you on this.  We want a Ukraine with a fully functional democracy for all its citizens, a Ukraine that recognizes and operates under international law and respects human rights, regardless of who is suffering.  That is the Ukraine that gets into NATO/EU - with Hungarian arm twisting if need be.  That is the Ukraine we invest hundreds of billions in reconstruction. That is the Ukraine we support and enforce Russian accountability for.
Not whatever nightmare you are selling here.

I 100% agree. It can take a few weeks to train a tank or IFV crew, and in the case of IFVs, Ukraine has plenty of battle hardened infantry to be dismounts. BUT it can take months to train the mechanics and techs to keep the things running. If the US and/or EU had provided them on February 24th, they'd still be only coming on line around now.

European countries could create a "pool" so that everyone chips in with 10-30% of they tanks that would be replaced sometime after Ukraine situation cools down then. Some of this pool would be internally swapped and some send to Ukraine, making sure Ukraine gets the up to date modes and similar versions.
From here you can find the operators: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2

around half are 2A5-A7 and half 2A4.
This means Ukraine could easily get around 200. That would be a "worth it" amount.
and again to remind everyone most of these tanks exist only to counter Russian threat. In Ukraine they will be decreasing that threat even further. Russian threat has now decreased significantly(for the next decade or so) and Europe will be able to rearms faster than Russia after the war cools down.

Yampil is a tough nut to crack, it would seem.
Dug up an old (April!) topo map from HeliosRunner, who is offline.  Yampil is that village nestled at the edge of the forest in the southeast quadrant.  UKR has been attacking it since at least 10 Sept.  A future CM scenario? 

 
I like these maps because unlike the 'solid mass of green' Google maps, they clearly contrast the wooded and built up areas from cultivated zones, showing readily how defensible Lyman is, from either direction -- it took RU 7 weeks to take it in the spring.  The flanks are well anchored so any envelopment needs to be large.

Exactly...there's even a track on the soundtrack titled "Putin's Demise."

After seven months and 1,448 pages I am rather surprised that no one (as far as I've noticed) has made the obvious Hunt for Red October reference about slipping on tea...

After seven months and 1,448 pages I am rather surprised that no one (as far as I've noticed) has made the obvious Hunt for Red October reference about slipping on tea...

After seven months and 1,448 pages I am rather surprised that no one (as far as I've noticed) has made the obvious Hunt for Red October reference about slipping on tea...

This is not realistic. The only possible way for the US (or if you will, US, UK, France) to do this is with ICBMs. Russia is BIG and their nuclear sites are geographically diversified. We (those 3) don't have a bunch of conventional warhead ICBMs, (not any, really) and it wouldn't matter anyway. They could not physically destroy Russia's nuclear capability using only conventional weapons, HOWEVER, Russia would not stand by and watch it happen. They, like us, would interpret a targeted attack on nuclear weapon infrastructure as an existential threat and would have to respond immediately, before our missiles landed, with a full nuclear attack on the west. There's no other optional response. We would do the same. Use it or lose it. There's no way to know that the incoming missiles on a trajectory to eliminate nuclear sites, are "only" conventional, and either way - it's an attack to eliminate a country's nuclear response capability.
Another wild card is that Russia has SSBNs out there too. Not as many, not quite as capable, but that's kind a moot point. Even ONE, is enough to cause catastrophic damage all across the US. Same as with ours. I'd not like to be the Admiral who has to guarantee that our SSNs could sink EVERY Russian boomer before they can fire. Our SSNs are good, but I kind of doubt that we have that guaranteed capability. I have no inside knowledge on that. I just design, build and test them.
Dave

Yes, agreed. He was warned. About conventionally invading a non-NATO country. However those warnings were about sanctions and sending modern *defensive* weapons to Ukraine. Light years away from warning about “catastrophic” consequences that can in no way be assumed not just by Putin, but by his military and civilian leadership that this time they would not face the full force of the military arrayed against Russia. And I imagine the private and back channel communications we know have taken place to have been much less diplomatic.  And couched in the context of crossing the one single red line that *all * the powers that be have insisted not be crossed. 
 
Here in the cheap seats, we cannot know the final decision policy of Washington or the Allies. But I would bet on general agreement that the punishment for using a nuclear weapon in anger today must be so clearly “catastrophic” for the attacker that other nations watching with interest have zero doubt about just how very very bad an idea that would be. In fact, one could imagine the core message to Russia:being just that: We are so sorry. This isn’t a civilized, gentlemanly proportional response situation. Understand, this is nothing personal. It’s just not good for business. Which you won’t be in any longer. Because this will not stand. 
 
Here in the cheap seats, I realize this is just an opinion, one without the weight and responsibility that weigh on those who must make such a monumental decision. 

Nine months of my life on operations in the role, two years of my life in a PSYOPs unit and three months of my life on courses suggest otherwise ...

Well you should not have been dismissed, and if I was part of that dismissal I owe you a Coke.  
The potential of information warfare is - and has been - definitive in this war.  We have been largely playing defence and Ukraine has been weaponizing truth brilliantly.  However, this is one area of warfare we in the West are coming from behind compared to Russia - or at least were.
For example, during 2014 in Crimea the Russian had hacked the telecommunications system and were able to send individual texts to protestors against the annexation - while they were protesting.
Mis and Dis information are one area that the Russians excelled at prior to this war, right up until they started throwing up all over themselves.  You can still see it in some circles but neither the information warfare acumen, nor cyber-Geddon seems to be doing much for the Russians.  We know they are out there and up to stuff but not at the levels we were expecting.  It kind of looks like they have divorced the methods of subversive warfare and conventional - which is another sign we overestimated their sophistication.
So why are we not doing the same:
- Policy.  We have very limited policy authority for these actions.  Mainly based on political risk aversion and lack of legal frameworks.  For example, is it legal to use disinformation to attack the RA logistical system when it may cause civilian suffering?  How much?  The LOAC does not account for some of the 2nd and 3rd order effects, so the lawyers have largely avoided then issue.  We can get a lot of people killed with information and subversive warfare and right now in the West we have yet to rationalize that with the rules based order - Russia, and China, do not have so much trouble.
- Tactics and doctrine.  The expertise to do this work exists but it is not concentrated within the military.  Hell, we are grappling with how to recruit cyber and information operators - these guys can make seven figures in private industry out of college and we offer them a rank of private and a lot of being yelled at.  Then there is the corporate knowledge base.  Try briefing a 50 year old general on what information warfare targeting and see why you get - a serious lack of knowledge and experience as it is something we let public affairs deal with.  Finally offensive information warfare is really an area we get icky with because it is basically lying to hurt, which is very unsportsmanlike and not something we have spent a lot of time studying.
- Human Terrain expertise.  We have specialists and experts but nowhere near the capacity and density we had back during the Cold War.  This means we could come off sounding like Tokyo Rose if we tried your massive info warfare plan - “Russian gangsters, your Putin is sub-optimal leader and your borscht is getting cold”.  Building that to a competitive point is going to take time.
So should we get in this game - definitely, about ten years ago.  Are we there yet, nope.  

I agree with everything you just said and have written things with that theme a number of times. In fact the first time I brought up a similar issue was probably fifteen years ago and involved using Javelins on insurgents, Steve was convinced they weren't worth the missile. If you need to kill it/them now, today, you use what you have and bleep the cost. It isn't what it cost, it is the damage it/they can do. We may have to do a lot of that to get through the war in Ukraine. That said if they can make you shoot million dollar missiles at $25,000 dollar drones, it is going to be an EXPENSIVE war.  We really need a better plan for the next war, when the standard drone swarm is twenty five, or fifty, even or a hundred of the buggers. That is on the drawing board, and in more than one country.

https://www.amazon.com/Freehold-Second-Book-1-ebook/dp/B00HW1TV6O/ref=sr_1_6?crid=1KVMAHQFP9CLY&keywords=michael+z.+williamson&qid=1664077466&s=digital-text&sprefix=%2Cdigital-text%2C109&sr=1-6
 
https://www.audible.com/pd/Freehold-Resistance-Audiobook/1705296424?qid=1664076543&sr=1-1&ref=a_search_c3_lProduct_1_1&pf_rd_p=83218cca-c308-412f-bfcf-90198b687a2f&pf_rd_r=FP051X345QFXCJGDBJE5
 
 
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00BEQLTZY?ref_=dbs_m_mng_rwt_calw_tkin_0&storeType=ebooks&qid=1664077514&sr=1-7
The above are links to three books a science fiction series. First things first, the author has a screw loose, but then most sci-fi authors do. All of them were written well before this war, but it is almost eerie how he got some things about what has happened in Ukraine eerily correct. There are other parts that are so exactly opposite you almost think it was planned if it wasn't written before the war. He also has some thoughts about what happens when the weaker side decides it isn't getting any help. Did i mention he had a screw loose... All that said some of the things I have been the most right about were basically based on these books. Some of the things I have been wrong about, well by and large I am really happy to have been wrong, and hope i STAY wrong. FWIW