G.I. Joe

It’s quite a big moment in a lot of ways.
First, it’s an undeniable statement about the security of Ukrainian state that the Russian media will be unable to stop themselves from splashing onto every television between Donetsk and Vladivostok. The message will be that it’s evidence of American perfidy with Azov Nazis but what every Russian will still see is that things are going so well for Kyiv that Zelensky can take day trips to Washington. 
It also is having an effect in DC. Zelensky has real charisma and the ability to see and touch him will have a real effect on the politics of Ukraine aid. As above, it also provides tangible proof that aid to Ukraine is working. Americans will see him, see something that our aid has accomplished.
Don’t sleep on this. It’s a big moment for Ukraine and humiliating as hell for Russia.

That is about 0 °C in non-retarded units.

Polish Institute of International Affairs prepared a 70 page long analysis of Ukraine's situation and perspectives regarding the major types of weapons it fields. It is not groundbreaking, but does a great job summarizing both what was already sent, and what the possibilities are.
For example:

New French arms deliveries to Ukraine
Source : Le Monde

CNN confirms that JDAMs are going to Ukraine, and very soon:
 

Next part of this interview
 

I think we are seeing more than a single generation of downturn for Russia.  Frankly Russia is cashing in its foreseeable future here.  We are talking multiple generations paying the cost of this war both economically and in social demographics.  But hey if those newly mobilized can buy their daughter a smart phone...  someone should hack those and load up a "cost of this war" calculator.

So, I wrote that on my phone, which is a PITA to type on. To add a bit more depth and detail to the above: How quickly can a target be identified and located?
It can be extraordinarily hard to figure out exactly what something is, and where it is. Is that rifle shot a lone rifleman, or the forward listening post of a full company position? Getting that wrong will slow things down later as you have to re-calibrate the response – especially if you underestimate initially – but crying wolf all the time will soon create credibility and trust problems.
The second problem is target location. You’re being shot at, from “over there”, but that probably gives you an arc around 45° wide and between 100 and 800m deep, which is a LOT of ground. Geometry tells me it’s something like a quarter of a million square metres, which is about 2,500 usable target locations, each of which is 10x10m. ONE of those 2,500 is the one you’re after, maybe  another 24 are close enough to be useful, but the other 2,475 are wrong and will slow down your response.
Deriving a map grid can be by map-to-ground, and a good FO can do that pretty quick because they will be constantly following where they are on the map, and relating features around them to the map, so they already know where they are when the fun starts, and have a pretty good idea of where the love is coming from. But reading from a map is … risky. It’s super easy to transpose numbers. Uh, so I’ve heard … Anyhoo. It also depends on the quality of the map and the map-reading skill of the FO.
There’re also technical aids like super-Gucci binos that have a gps, gyroscope and laser range finder built in, so all you need to do is look at the target (assuming you can find it in all the battlefield clutter) and laze it to get a derived grid.
None of this depends on the guns firing the mission. It does depend on the level of training of the FO, and the technical aids they have available.
How quickly can that be sent to a firing battery?
This is not really a matter of radios, although obviously having a good comms network is a per-requisite. Rather it’s a matter of organisation, and in particular how much control the FO has. In general, there’s two schools of thought – either the FO can order fire (“shoot here, now!”), or the FO must request fire (“I have a target – can I have some bullets? Please?”). There are pros and cons with both approaches, which stretch all the way back to the level of training and experience required and forward to efficient and effective use of guns and ammunition. There is no right answer, but for the purposes of this being able to order fire direct from a battery does tend to move things along faster than having to go through command layers asking for permission.
None of this depends on the guns that will fire the mission. It does depend on the doctrine and training of the people involved.
How quickly can the target location and description be turned into orders for the guns (bearing, elevation, and ammunition)?
Guns are aimed in terms of angles, and at some point a calculation is required to turn the target location from an grid (GR 123 456) to angles for the gun (a bearing of which way to point, and an  elevation for how far up to point in order to lob the bomb as far as you need, along with the type of ammo, amount of propellant to use, and any fuse setting). That’s invariably done on a computer, which are pretty quick at doing the raw calcs, but there may be additional steps to make sure that the target grid has been entered correctly. The computer doesn’t care whether you entered GR 123 456 or GR 123 546. It will spit out a valid bearing and elevation either way, but the guys on the ground will very definitely care about that. Again there are technical aids that can help speed things up here – those numbers that your super flash binos spat out could be transmitted automagically to the fire control system, which eliminates several machine-to-man-to-man-to-machine interfaces. You just have to hope that the guy pushing the button on the binos lazed the thing he meant to, and wasn’t shaking too much when he pressed the button, or didn’t clip some intervening terrain, or didn’t get laser skip off a reflective surface.
Anyway, ideally there’ll be two independent methods for deriving bearing and elevation, to try and get fat fingers out of the mix. Doing that and checking them against each other takes time, constrained by the slower method.
Modern SP guns are able to do those calculations in the turret, but towed guns generally require a central battery command post to provide that service. Whether the SPs are ‘allowed’ to use their inherent calculation capability – or if that’s still controlled centrally – is a contextual policy decision. On board the vehicle will typically be faster, although it mightn’t scale well – if you only have a single gun in support then a separate command post won’t help much, but if you want to fire a battery or battalion together onto the same target you’ll probably want a CP to be able to spread the love around – there’s not much point in 12 guns all pummeling the hell out of poor Ivan’s pit if the rest of his platoon is left in peace.
At some point in this piece of the chain, too, “someone” should do battlespace deconfliction – basically making sure that you aren’t about to inadvertently drop some bombs on other blue forces, or poke a hole in a helo or plane that’s about to buzz overhead.
Almost none of this depends on the guns that will fire the mission. It does depend on the doctrine and training of the people involved.
How well surveyed is the gun position?
This is probably one of the simpler steps now –all guns (almost all?), including towed, currently in service in NATO-aligned armies have the ability to self-locate and orient using on-board GPS. That is, figure out exactly where they are in the world, and in exactly which direction the barrel is pointed. Those two pieces of information are crucial in being able to correctly calculate the bearing and elevation needed to get ‘splody goodness from “here” to way over “there.” Of course, that assumes you aren’t in a GPS-denied or degraded environment. Older guns, whether towed or SP need external – generally man-draulic – assistance to figure that out, essentially by triangulation from a known reference point. In this context, by older guns I basically mean all the old Soviet stuff that never got an upgrade.
So this does sort-of depend on the gun, but the ability to self-locate and orient is sort of binary – either it can, or it can’t. There aren’t really degrees of ability here. If it’s being done by manual survey, it’s highly dependent on training.
How well known are the current met conditions?
Bombs fly through the air on their way to the target. We all kind of know that but it’s easy to overlook the importance of that simple truth. Just like a rifle bullet, they are affected by wind – side wind, head wind, tail wind can all greatly affect where an unguided round will land. But, in addition, artillery rounds go up a really long way. That means they transition different temperatures, air densities, and even different wind directions on their way up and then back down again. It is extraordinarily unlikely that the various different effects on the round will neatly cancel each other out. More likely is an unpredictable error  will be introduced, that will change over the course of the day because, d’uh, weather changes over the course of the day. Artillery rounds are also in the air for multiple 10s of seconds, not the 2-3 seconds of a rifle round. That provides far more time for met effects to accumulate.
You can account for this in one of two ways. Either, fire a round, see where it lands, and correct from there. The adjustment between the first and second round inherently resolves the correction required for the current met conditions. That’s super simple, but also gives away surprise and takes time. The other option is to try and measure what the current met conditions are, then apply the necessary corrections (calculated by old-mate computer, thank gawd) before the first round is fired.
Neither of these approaches depend on the gun being used, but both depend on training – although just who is being trained changes. For the first method (fire one, see where it goes, adjust from there) it’s all on the FO. For the second method (lick finger, stick it up in the air) it depends on the training of the CP staff. In practice, a combination of both is generally used, although having reliable met is preferred because it’s faster and retains surprise – having a bomb suddenly arrive out of nowhere and land in your lap leaves no time to get into cover.
Oh, don’t forget to measure the propellant temp while you’re at it. The rate propellant burns is dependent on its temperature. Hotter = faster burn = a higher but ‘peakier’ impulse. Cooler = slower = smoother steadier push. The temperature can change quite a lot over the course of the day, for example between night and day, or if a weather front rolls through. Again, the difference can easily be adjusted for after the first round, but that takes time and costs surprise. Some platforms – generally only SPs – will be constantly and automagically measuring the charge temp. If not, someone will have to dash about every now and then with a probe thermometer, and that is a training and discipline issue.
 
 
So, all that’s to do with speed and accuracy. Precision is the other side of the coin. Put simply, accuracy is the ability to hit the thing you were pointing at, while precision is the ability to do it again. An artillery piece is basically a large clunky and clanky heat engine. Light the fuel, exhaust products of burn expand, that expansion pushes the piston (ie, the round) down the cylinder, just like a car engine. The fuel is different, of course, and hopefully the piston never comes back, but the principles are basically the same. And, just like a car engine, the various components are subject to wear. Wear inside the cylinder (ie, barrel) means that the piston (round) can wobble ever so slightly and ever so unpredictably. In addition, the shock of firing is, well, shocking. That shock is transmitted throughout the system, stressing all the components every time the gun fires. That accumulated stress particularly affects anywhere two pieces come together – screws and bolts joining various bits and bobs, axles that drive things that spin, and gears that elevate and point the barrel. As those things wear they become sloppy, and sloppy means minute but random variation which means unpredictability which means imprecision. Also, over the course of the last century, manufacturing processes have become more controlled, which means that more modern guns tend to be built to tighter tolerances to start with, which means they’re more precise straight out of the box.
Some guns – like the 777, and the PzH2000 – do have a good reputation for precision, but they aren’t inherently magical. Physics is physics and chemistry is chemistry. They are ‘just’ really well designed and manufactured modern guns. In general, precision isn’t specifically dependent on the type of gun used, except to say that newer designs are more precise than older designs, and guns that have fired lots of rounds will be less precise than guns that have fired fewer rounds.
Precision is also affected by variations between rounds, and between propellant. Generally any rounds (or propellant) made in a certain batch at a particular factory over a certain date range will be the same – or ‘same-enough’ that the differences can be ignored. But if, say, the density of the alloy used to make the shell body changes a bit, or the ratio of ingredients used in the propellant is altered just a wee bit, then the flight characteristics of the round will be different to what you may have expected. A good artillery system will take that into account by tightly controlling manufacture, and also by test firing rounds from different batches and … seeing what happens. Literally. Bang a round off, see where it lands, compare that to what was expected, figure out what the correction required for that batch is, and include it in the batch info. A less good artillery system … might not do that.
 
 
Finally, editing counts. The description is fairly limited, and doesn’t really talk about either accuracy OR precision, except to imply there was enough of both to do the job. It seems like the two forces were either pretty close together, or at least one of the rounds was astray since they had a bit of fratricide. Assuming that the three rounds described were the sum total fired, then the grunts and the gunners must have high confidence in the overall system – going straight to danger close is serious business, and not something you’d consider if the guns were firing sloppy.
Oh, one final final note: that airburst could be due to fuzing (prox or mechanical time) but it could also be due to a round with a point detonating (PD, ie, impact) fuze hitting a tree. Given they appear to be in a forest, my first bet would be a PD tree burst, then mechanical time, with prox last. Prox onto a target in a forest is problematic because the foliage canopy can provide a ‘false base’, leading to early and high detonation. High is bad because it dilutes the splinter pattern which reduces its effectiveness. Early is worse because rounds are typically coming from behind you, which means that an early round will be going off over your head rather than the bad guy's. Good FOs know those considerations, and choose fuzes accordingly.
  Tl;dr: it could have been a 777, but nothing in what he wrote particularly suggests that, either for or against

Hey Girkin, Ya might start w ending the pointless and bankrupting war ya f-ing idiot.  Restructuring the government won't magically turn the steaming manure pile into gold.  There is nothing that is now being fought over that will yield 0.1% in profit relative to the cost of this war of choice.  All these people think that the only problem is how the war is being conducted, not the fact that the war itself is the problem.

Yes, they were, and some still cannot force themselves to reciprocate it- for example TV anchors here simply couldn't spell second part "glory to the heroes" for first months when interviewing their Ukrainian guests, who were probably blisfully unaware of the slogan's origin and what it means for Poles. Many here still can't, especially that ethnonationalistic cancer is unfortunatelly real, alive and growing among population of Western Ukraine. A lot of work need to be done on Ukrainian historical identity, and I am not sure if our current strategy of "leave it for later, now they suffer because of war and have other things than discussion about a past" is actually right one, given that this war is formative period for Ukraine state and society.
Still, some symbols change their meaning in time. People do not associate "heroiom slava" slogan with genocidal nationalisms anymore (usually narration of slogan as associated with Sicz's Rifles comes in handy), and they can even tolerate these "Blood and Soil" black-red flags if going to Ukraine with help. However, you can agree that supplying people at your own expense who venerate absolutelly genocidal morons who barely 80 years earlier would cut their throats for just being Poles (or Jews, Hungarians or any other) resonates with very strange vibes among people doing charity work?
Yup, some of historians here associate it with "Sicz Rifles" (not exactly correctly, but that is minor issue), just as famous Chervona Kalyna, which Russian trolls here also tried to sell as "UPA song", fortunatelly ineffectively.
Ok Haiduk it is not against you or other folks here, just a food for thought about future of your country and national identity. I am fully aware of many wrongdoings on Polish side in the past as well, I really attended several dozens conferences on these topics in my 12-year long historical career and heard zilion of arguments from both Polish and Ukrainian historians of the topic (even stopped two who wanted to smash each other faces in my student's years...), so believe me- I get basic facts around Ukrainian nationalism and there are probably not many things you can surprise me on it.
The question is if collectivelly Ukrainians really want this kind of hatred to be cherished for another generations- because that will be effect of tolerating OUN/UPA heritage in your public spaces. There will be some day when society will need to grasp bull by the horns and stand in truth about genocidal past of this organization (and large part of population in Western Ukraine, who were forced or otherwise encouraged by UPA to participate in it), without whitewashing, victim-blaming and doing endless circles around basic obvious facts (mirroring what Russians do with their own narrations), which is sadly situation now among many Ukrainian historians, with several exceptions (perhaps ironically- mostly from Eastern Ukraine, where they can approach topic without bias). And facts are indeed brutal- probably 50-80 k innocent people were ruthlessly murdered in one of worst cases of targeted genocide, in already harsh times of WWII. Rwanda style, with machette, axe and scythe- not some impersonal "industry of death" like projected by Germans for Jews. It was personal, it was long-planned, targeted and executed by the same people who are now fast becoming symbols of Ukrainian statehood. I really don't care what UPA become in Ukrainian national mythology after these events, because it will always inherently be bases on false premises. There is no place among civilized people for narrations supporting such guys.
I would even say in the future your attitude to OUN/UPA will be a major test if you really want to collectivelly be part of Western hemisphere or prefer to stay inside never-ending cycle of lies like Russians. We did our job on many unpleasant and shameful episodes from our collective past, still not enough of it, but I can wholeheartadly say it is always beneficial for society in long run. Germans serve great example here.

Hope everyone on the ground stays safe.
Good luck and good hunting to the air defence units...

True, except these were individual cases and "a scandal", like you wrote, which were supressed by superiors and investigated. The level of this kind of sick esthetic circling among military in current conflict is too plentiful not to be widely tolerated by superiors/wider population in this case.
Btw. Americans in Korea or Vietnam were not forced to basically crowdsource their war effort- and well-being of entire society in fact- from donations from across the world, in the era of instant digital communication. This fact should switch additional red buttons among Ukrainian authorities for tolerance for such "pranks"- yet for some reason, it does not seem so.
 
https://nv.ua/ukr/world/geopolitics/putin-gotoviy-priynyati-vtrati-u-300-tis-soldativ-krajina-chlen-nato-u-povidomlenni-svojim-soyuznikam-50291645.html
This article cites NYT' source claiming that Putin is supposedly prepared to accept even lossess on level of 300k. Perhaps somebody read this piece? Valid work or another empty journalist scoup by "unnamed NATO official"?

I think the bigger problem is that EVERYBODY has camera. So all the stupids pranks, and even worse ideas get recorded. Since the worse the idea is the more likely it is to go viral, it is sort of a snowballing problem. Can Ukraine get a handle on the problem? I wouldn't want the job...
The NYT article is a huge rundown on the whole war with an emphasis on the legion of Russian mistakes that got us to this point. I suspect at least some Russian officials/apparatchiks gave reasonably honest backward looking commentary just to get that one line in about the Russians not quitting. We will be able to judge if Putin was happy with the Result by the prevalence of the that strange window falling virus in Moscow over the next few weeks. The information war is almost as important as counter battery in the war, and both sides are contesting it vigorously. I also suspect certain bits of the shambolic Russian state apparatus used it too communicate with other bits of the Russian Government. 
 

You understand folks that such little military humour makes no little harm to your cause, right?
Just like some military people openly parading with portraits of massive murderer Shuchevycz or those stupid songs about "our father Bandera" that even half-official Twitter accounts are absolutelly not shy of. I get it is very difficult to controll such big volunteer military, but I frankly heard several stories from our volunteers supplying soldiers at the front of some brigade commanders (chiefly 28th, but also 57th, 58th, 92nd + some at northern fronts) not giving a fook if they soldiers openly wear nazi, Wehrmacht, OUN/UPA or other ethnonationalistic symbolic. Russian propaganda aside, we already saw way too many examples of this **** during capture of Kherson and at Bakhmut.
 
Ok, to change the mood:
 

Theese rumors are continously throwing in information space by followers of former president Poroshenko. They believed that Zaluzhnyi and AFU fight with Russian on own mind, when Zelenskiy and President's administration are hidden traitors and Russia-lovers, which wanted to "piss off" Ukraine in first days, but when they have seen hard position of Zaluzhnyi (and of course Poroshenko, lol) and the will of people to fight, they scared and weared the masks of patriots. But indeed as if they do all to interfere Zaluzhnyi to beat Russia, because afraid that popularity of Zaluzhnyi can threaten to Zelenskiy re-election perspectives aftyer the victory.  So they want to dismiss Zaluzhyi for less talented, but completely loyal Syrskiy, in order to UKR army don't achieve successes and receive an occasion to say "we did all what we can, but we can't fight Russia anymore, we need to negotiate".  This is pure clinic.
Alas, this sh...t western jouranlists each time took as real insides and more contribute in "uncertainity", making among part of UKR society and army. And give to Pororshenko-followers an occasion to shout on each corner: "Aha! You didn't believe us, but look - western media write about the same! They are traitors and want to dismiss Zaluzhnyi". Sometime I think this speeches in wartime conditions have nothing common with free of speech and theese are dirt politic intrigues of one very offended potentially authocratic leader, who imagine himself as Ukrainain Messiah, but lost elections to "clown".  

You basically have to do a supply chain analysis regularly, all the way back to everything that goes into it, and keep enough stock on hand to use at the highest likely rate for long enough to ramp up the supply chain to produce at at least the same rate you're using it.  Just doing the analysis is non-trivial, and you have to do it regularly because something you spec today may not exist in production two years from now, let alone ten.  With anything electronic the obsolescence time can be less than a year, and the production ramp up can be a year or more.  And then there are things where the part number and name stay the same, but there's substantial difference in formulation that can mess up processes that depend on it.  And if there's no commercial market for something that goes into what you need, you have to either stockpile it or maintain an artificial market if you don't want to lose the capability. 

If somebody presents you with an illegal training grenade launcher:
a) don't accept this gift, it might backfire. Remember that "training" DOES NOT equal "inert"
b) if you accepted, don't tinker with it if you don't know how it works.
c) if decided to tinker with it anyway, don't do it in your office.
d) especially if you are the chief of Police of the entire ****ing country.
e) cause if something happens, the ruling party will have a huge problem spinning it as another victory, and you might be asked to resign from office. Also, you might hurt yourself.
If you think that's funny, well, you are damn right -  Darwin award level of stupidity was involved here, and from somebody you'd expect to know better.
Also, as you can imagine, the meme brigade is having a field day.


 

Ukrainian Air Force pilot "Juice" gives a interview on the state of the air war now. Must read!
Praise for the SEAD missions enabled by the HARM missiles.
Russians staying wary with tangling with UAF but they still are operating and trying to silence them EW and with their own SEAD, tho not as effective as supposed to be. The long range Air to Air missile R-37M is now in use by Russia, and it's dangerous.
They have mercenary Wagner pilots who are seemingly tasked with the more suicidal missions, operating older jets and acting in general with some more callousness than RuAF.
Big warning, Russia is now putting online older airframes, older air defense less capable but planes are planes, AD is AD. Big issue I think, if Ukraine is forced to rely on what little airframes it has remaining without more coming online. He mentions the Army Aviation, who operate helicopters, who sorely need more aid, including Western helicopters if possible. Did mention that his and Ukraine's advocacy is making dividends in that the West is considering how to best approach providing aid over the long terms including western airframes potentially.
Biggest hurdle for western jets is political, not technical or logistically. (Which is obvious, I don't doubt meeting with Ukrainian pilots changes minds on whether Ukraine can handle western aircraft)
Essential reading.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/a-mig-29-pilots-inside-account-of-the-changing-air-war-over-ukraine
 

Hope everyone on the ground stays safe.
Good luck and good hunting to the air defence units...

Hope everyone on the ground stays safe.
Good luck and good hunting to the air defence units...

I had posted it, but I'll mention it again, President Zelensky had submitted a bill to dissolve a court known for corruption in 2021 but it never got passed by the Rada, a week ago or so the U.S placed the head of the court on a sanctions list for corruption, and just two days ago, the Rada promptly voted on the bill and dissolved the court. Both the EU and U.S have made it clear thru high level statements and the work of their representatives in Ukraine, that our assistance requires concrete steps by Ukraine to pass reforms targeting corruption, and the war has given Ukraine powerful incentives to act accordingly.
 

Vietnam In Talks With US Defense Companies For Military Gear, Looks To End Reliance on Putin's Arms (msn.com)

I just watched David Letterman's interview with President Zelensky on Netflix. It's quite good.

I think this war is going to make Ukraine a far less corrupt country in a several ways.
First a truly significant fraction of the entire male population is experiencing trench warfare, and they are not doing for the privilege of being messed with by corrupt traffic cops.
Secondly, Ukraines connections with Russia in general, and corrupt Russian oligarchs in particular are just gone. I don't think they are coming back anytime soon.
Third, Ukraines homegrown oligarchs have mostly had their empires, be they economic, political, and/or criminal crushed by the war. The guy that used to run Azovstal being the most obvious example. Every single pillar of the power that once made him untouchable in, and nearly as strong as, the Ukrainian Government is just gone.
So if the EU stays involved, and Zelensky stays long enough, but not too long, it really could all come good in the end. They have beat the Russians too obviously..

Given where all this started, it's mindboggling to me that these guys are still up there contesting and winning control of the space. Just amazing.