G.I. Joe

The French decision was easy enough. They could supply Ukraine as many AMX-10s as they want because they're already manufacturing its replacement for their own army. I forgot the name... EBRC Jaguar, I think. AMX-10 looks cool but its 41 years old and its foreign resale probabilities were probably low.
CM players should be aware of the pitfalls of using vehicles that look kind'a like tanks as though they were tanks. You usually get abruptly and violently reminded that they aren't tanks after all.

I have seen this before in the Balkans.  It the the grinding of two great machines against each other.  These little vicious fights are sparks as the edges make contact.  We have become enamoured with sweeping advances and bold thrust; however, warfare is a lot more vicious little fights punctuated by impersonal death from afar that does not care how brave you are, or how many push-ups you can do.
Then one side or the other will try for a big push, which more often than not turns into a bloody mess.  The description of 21st century WW1 is not far off, but now with a corrosive twist.  Corrosion is a form of manoeuvre, it takes more time but can lead to rapid erosion of an opponent to the point of collapse.
As to Russian small unit trajectory.  Well the conventional wisdom is that it is downward - “how steep?”  Is the question.  Russia does not have training centres in Poland, the UK and elsewhere being run for free by western nations.  They do not have a nearly unlimited arms industry to keep them in supplies.  And they definitely do not have a US based ISR system feeding targeting data at a rate that would make Schwarzkopf blush.
So essentially everything a Russian small unit needs for an upward trajectory is pointing in the other direction, from generation and training, to support, to enablers, to command.  The only thing that Russian small unit has is more bodies to stuff into it when it gets shot to pieces.  However, the quality of those bodies is also going on a downhill slope.  More conscripts who likely do not want to be there, worse moral and fewer and fewer trained veterans.
So what?  This war will be bloody and grinding until something gives, then it will be fast…just like the previous times.  And one of these times the RA will be pushed hard enough in the right places that it cannot recover.  Or it taps out.  Or the West loses interest and pushes for a stop.  Or least likely, Ukraine decides it has had enough.

Oh crap! Apparently I forgot to hit “reply.” It was such a good response too. Anyhoo, long story short, on a personal level, I’m very happy, while on a “professional” military level, I’m horrified that no one seems to be thinking of the spare parts logistical nightmare all these “donations” of different designs  are going to cause.

Well, this is interesting.  This feller makes case that Germany is actually doing a really good job of supporting Ukraine, and backs it up w data.  I have no dog in this fight so glad to see there's lots of info about Germany's support that I hadn't thought of before.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/9/2146199/-Ukraine-update-Germany-has-done-more-for-Ukraine-than-most-know-or-acknowledge
 

I was thinking more the timing of the mobilizations. Beyond that Russia isn't exactly awash with options.  Maybe move their carrier into ... oh wait yeah that isn't capable of leaving dock either...
Russians brought their only aircraft carrier to critical condition and looking for those responsible (yahoo.com)  
 

Good discussion here, team.
[replying to @The_Capt's last] In a business context I have found the most valuable practical use of Strategy -- however defined -- is as a 'screen'.
In other words, what are the Big Ideas we're NOT going to dissipate large amounts of our time and treasure chasing.  Hence, 'off strategy'.
So in the Ukraine war context, let's say your strategy (theory of success) is to achieve the battlefield defeat of the Russian army.
I might further characterise as a the enforced surrender or rout (e.g. Kherson was NOT a rout) of a Russian CAA army (which is more like a corps of 3 - 4 divisions in Western terms).
That implies you
1.  focus on the land bridge/Azov coast, which is the hardest Russian concentration for them to supply, support or reinforce
2.  cut the supply routes, both in and out (the sea one is hardest, but not invulnerable -- there are only a few ports) and within the zone
3.  assuming they've already stockpiled heavily and distributed, either destroy or make unavailable those caches (focus on the trucks with switchblades?)
That implies you DON'T
1. mess around in Belarus (unless the enemy gives you an opening). 
2. bother retaking northern Luhansk or even Kreminna -- the supply routes through there are already effectively cut
3. expend too many top quality forces holding Bahmut, unless you're truly bleeding away Russian forces at a very favourable loss ratio
... what else?

Personally I read those on a deeper level, past the faux humour, as deeply bitter and angry videos - "we're losing our best and brightest to these stupid a**hats?" 
The comedy is of the darkest kind,  which is always just a veneer over an enormous surging rage. Just listen to George Carlin

yeah as long as Ukraine adheres to humanitarian treatment of POWs etc I could really care less about how they portray smashing the Russian army.  Those murderous a-holes have another choice to not be in Ukraine and they should have opted to stay home.

The average Russian soldier has no say on whether to use incendiary ammunition against a city or not.
Hundreds of thousands of them were literally rounded up and forced to fight. This war is a tragedy to them and their families too.
Russia needs to lose this war, and that unfortunately means there has to be thousands of Russian casualties, but I don't want to start celebrating that they die or suffer.
In fact I find it concerning that people are now speaking of "mobiks" as if they are somehow subhuman and that it's funny they get massacred.
Especially when it comes to Ukrainian propaganda videos where they add clown music to gruesome videos of Russians getting blown to pieces.
Every time I watch a video like that, I find myself thinking "Are these really the people we are supporting? Maybe we should just let leave them to enjoy this war that they seem to find so funny".

Terrible that this is happening but good that we have evidence of these war crimes committed.
Hopefully all these war crimes are being meticulously recorded. When this war ends whoever is in charge in the Kremlin after Putin's gang is gone, needs to be pressured to extradite those accused of committing these acts to face justice.
Edit: Here is an interesting BBC article I recently read about the subject of war crimes in this war.
Ukraine war: Putin should face trial this year, says top lawyer

It is widely believed that the pre-war Russian army was an army of professionals. The testimonies of prisoners at the beginning of the war directly contradict this. All as one declare that instead of combat training they were engaged in complete nonsense and eyewash and held weapons at best several times in their entire service. Many generally state that their position in peacetime was completely different than during the war. Their commanders knew perfectly well that with such meager training they would be equally ineffective in both the old and the new position. 
Everyone remembers very well that at the beginning of the war, the clothes and ammunition of the soldiers were of terrible quality, many types of equipment were missing, as they were stolen. The equipment was in poor technical condition and was constantly out of order.
And vice versa, after 8 years of war in the Donbas, the DPR/LPR fighters were much better prepared and equipped than their Russian counterparts. Civilian volunteers supplied them with everything they needed, they made extensive use of quadcopters.
After half a year of the war, the Russians deployed several plants for commissioning equipment after conservation, and their equipment has since been in good condition. They also learned how to use quadrocopters. Many soldiers and officers received combat experience. Contrary to our expectations, Putin did not throw all the conscripts into battle at once. Instead, they were trained on the territory of Russia and Belarus for 4 months. And today they were transferred to the Donbass. I am ABSOLUTELY sure that this training is much better than what the Russian "professionals" had before the war. I'm sure they were able to find soldiers with combat experience to teach their mobilized something.
Do you seriously think that the Russians will not be able to provide their mobilized soldiers with equipment? Any equipment can be easily bought in a variety of online stores. Our volunteers provide the Ukrainian army with everything necessary in this way. So why can't the Russians buy all of this?
I am sure that the Russian army today is much more combat-ready than it was before the war.
There will be a time of hard and exhausting battles ahead.

That was after the demise of the Holy Roman Empire in 1806 and before the creation of the Kaiserreich in 1871. That was a phase where technically there was no Germany. Also, a bit too far in the past and more of a Prussian thing.

Complex question. I‘ve read once that Germany (as of 1870) has always experienced war as an act of aggression against her neighbours. But never in defense. 
There is no experience with war as a good thing (in this context). Weapons are the means for a war. No weapons, no war.
We are lacking an example for a war in history where we successfully defended ourselves or freed us from occupation. That is different from nearly all other European nations.

I love it that we're counting five years and one Olympiad without a medal and nine years and two Olympiads without a gold medal as a "drought." I sometimes think Canadians are the international hockey equivalent of New York Yankees fans - it seems we're never really satisfied unless our team wins a championship.

I really would not say this part in any bar back home…low blow. We did just win the juniors, so there is that.

Is Fundation that popular nowadays? I don't thnik so, it's one the books that is formally canonicall to every scifi fan but seem to be less read than people claim. Anyway, Asimov actually used real sub-humanistic scholarschip genre name to create his own McGuffin:
https://psychohistory.com/
This way of writing history spectacularly failed already at 70-80's, either. Due to inherent dynamism of human world. So not every McGuffin is worth another McGuffin
There is fundamental material and psychological difference between countries waging wars on their own turf, and those who send expeditionary forces oversees, that's why I don't think comparisions to US in WWII are valid in any way for current conflict (even Civil War would actually serve us better here) nor afterwards- 1950's generation profited immensly from fantastic position US industry obtained after the war, which Ukraine will not have. UK example is more interesting, they were bombed by enemy airforce after all, but again- Wehrmacht boots never touched British soil, except Channel Islands. And they had entire might of British Commonwealth working for them, which is luxury very few states in era of Total Industrial warfare had.  Germany, Italy and USSR serve much better examples when comes to destruction, but every one is much different -they were totalitarian attackers and Empires, even fascist Italy- which Ukraine is neither.
But generally thinking about war in Atlantic world is different than in continental Europe, especially East of Odra river. War is considered absolute destruction, madness of absurd proportions taking crushing toll on material being and on broken societal relations here, not Machiavellic tool of politics, something that one can choose and end just like that. It's end of the world for entire generation (we had Lost Generation, like many neighours, not Greatest one), so even victorious conflict has extremelly bitter taste. Just look at the ruins and changed landscape. It's not even Polish thing, ask Balts, Czechs, Hungarians, Ukrainians or anybody else from the region and they will collectivelly have roughly similar image. Let's hope this one indeed will be perceived differently.

I think one strategic aim must be that Russia does not gain one extra acre of Ukraine as a result of this war.  So pre-Feb 24 lines are critical as a minimum.  The reason for this is that Russia cannot be seen to gain/liberate/denazify/whatever-the-f@ck-they-are-going-on-about at all as a result of an illegal war. 
There was zero coherent or accepted self-defensive reason given for this war, which was pretty surprising.  The standard play is to blow something up in Russia and then stage manage the cause back to Ukraine, call "terrorism" and invade declaring right to self defence.  Putin and his gang were either too lazy or too far up their own asses to even make that effort.  They went from "field exercise" to  "right to protect from nazis" in a few weeks without bothering to cook up some sham evidence - hell a few old ladies weeping in the DNR after a "Ukrainian missile strike supported by NATO"?  How hard is it to do that?!
Russia basically declared rights of prima nocta on a nation that had been pretty much minding its own business and rolled in without even trying to make a case.  So this war is about as illegal as they get, I am talking Saddam Hussein illegal.  This was, and is, a big "F@ck you" to the international order, signaling that we are sliding back to Rule of the Gun.  This sets up every nation with a grudge and weapons to basically do whatever it wants, which will drive a lot of regional and bilateral alliances in reaction, and that is pretty much how WW1 started - but now with nukes!  
So Russia cannot gain from this war.  It cannot think it gained from this war.  And it cannot walk away thinking it was "ok" in anyway.  The punishment must be severe, not only to serve a level of justice, but to act as a deterrence to the next clown show that decides that just because they think they have a modern military does not mean they have full license to use it.  This is why I suspect the only way out of this is regime change in Russia itself (I will assess as HI probability - HI consequence).  We will never be able to renormalize with the current one, nor will it accept a zero-gain outcome.
The short term negotiation space is within the post 2014 territories to my eyes, but again this will ultimately be a pretty deeply debated and discussed issue both within Ukraine and amongst its partners.  And frankly that negotiation space is not even needed until the UA runs out of gas...and frankly I assess that as super-duper "LO" in the near future, quite the opposite.
We are starting to see western ground offensive equipment getting pushed in.  I have concerns over this which I have expressed before, but I suspect they could be indicators of advancing the timeline.  If the UA can integrate western equipped and trained units - so complete capability packages - that are designed for manoeuvre warfare, they are likely seeing opportunity to employ them this spring or summer.  I suspect we will see UA shaping operations to continue to corrode the RA and then maybe - and tank lovers will finally get their Xmas present late - we might see actual breakthrough battles, my money being on Melitopol.  E.G. I seriously doubt those 50 Bradleys are going to be penny packetted as glorified battle wagons for light infantry infiltration.
So What?  Well we are nowhere near Ukraine needed to concede or vie for peace on Russia terms.  This conflict is nowhere near frozen yet.

Dear gawd, if you take away the MacGuffin popular fiction will implode!  

Talking of sacrifice I did a quick comparison of WW2 against Ukraine's current population deaths (hopefully my math is good).

Country of comparison | equivalent Ukrainian losses to match
- U.S. | 131.200 KIA
- U.K. | 385.400 KIA
All countries below this lost great than 1%
- Italy| 4.551.00 KIA
- Ger. | 3.378.400 KIA
- USSR | 5.330.000 KIA
 
========

Then using the death reports from Wiki and taking the highest reported for civilian and military.

Ukraine has lost 46.000 people. These numbers are likely inaccurate but if we increase it by 1/2 69.000.  If this loss rate continues for the next year Ukraine will be at 140.000 which is equivalent to the U.S. losses during WW2 of .5%

As we just learned, MBTs might be crossed out of this list quite soon. Long range missiles can probably be supplied quite rapidly when the decision is made, it's just an ammunition for already deployed launchers. Which leaves aircraft - and quite likely Ukrainians are already being trained on them.
It really looks quite optimistic for OUR side

Ukraine will be rebuilding on a bedrock of national sacrifice and victory.  I expect it will be a couple decades before folks stop discussing the "greatest generation" similar as you noted to post war America.  Hell, we still call them the greatest generation.  There will be movies, books etc of individual and unit histories, war memorials. Folks will I am sure move into politics on their credentials of having fought and wanting to oust all the corruption that hindered the war effort etc.  In addition, Ukraine will take a very special place in the family of nations in their efforts.
As @The_Captnoted earlier, the power dynamics in Europe are going to change heavily with Eastern Europe playing a much stronger role.  All this does not bode well for Russia.  Poland and Ukraine will be the hardliners for Western Democracy right on their frontier.

Always a possibility, but we are probably more likely to see a Post Traumatic Growth scenario than the focused on PTSD negative scenario. It is similarly done on the individual level and has been for 50 years. The better story is on the negatives, but the positive stories are way more prolific. 
My bet is that Ukraine has more of a USA 1950's scenario happen than going down into darkness of some sort. Though only time will tell.
edit: I will be the optimist-on-duty for the day!  

This is just how backwards the Russian way of war is, they literally are trying to live a Steven Segal movie as doctrine.  Oryx shows: 533 captured Russian tanks, 255 AFVs, 547 IFVs and enough HVT hardware to make any professional weep.  But hey they got a single Barret .50 cal.
Meanwhile the UA developed a new integrated ISR system that we will likely be buying after this war.
At this point the RA and UA are not even the same species of military.

more bradley / AMXRC10 stuff, plus a tidbit about fight for island in the Dnipro at Kherson.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/5/2145481/-Ukraine-update-It-s-a-tank-No-it-s-not-Who-cares-Bradleys-and-AMX-10s-are-going-to-Ukraine
And some more confirmation bias for those of us who think RU is losing and UKR is winning:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/4/2145287/-Ukraine-update-Russia-is-losing-it-knows-it-s-losing-and-it-plans-to-keep-losing-Forever