pintere

This is incorrect for the majority of the fighting and advancing taking place. With the exception of kreminna etc, where infantry highly matters, for the most part it is the most helpless.
Over +2km open no mans land, infantry that wants to assault a dug in position can be spotted forming from +10km away and DPICM & drones will feast before the defenses are reached. It takes a few 300 and the assault breaks down. Nobody will charge kilometers on foot over rough ground while having drones dive on them at the very least, 155mm if they're unlucky. The russian special forces die to FPV and artillery just as storm-Z does, the quality doesnt matter. 
Now, wagner adapted to this kssue, 5~7 man infiltration teams worked well as they can approach more stealthily, and cant be shelled when there are shortages.
But this is an incredibly slow process that will not force a collapse before EU/Nato help spools up through 2025, all the while burning through people just the same if ammunition is no pressing concern. It also only works in the right terrain, not open fields with a tree line every 1-2 km.
So how does russia advance? They pile up meat on a vehicle, drive it through the minefields, arty and drones and sometimes the units come through and it ends up being a coin toss who remains in the trench, if the defenders dont evacuate beforehand, which more often happens, with the idea of droning the survivors in the trench (lacking any and all serious EW) and returning to the position.
This leads to massive losses but it works in pushing the line.
Krynki had massive vehicle assaults for months as seen in the loss sheets of people tracking losses, that were picked apart by the elevated positions on the other side, as well as good hidden drone teams in the village cellars that can sustain nearby 500kg bombs.
These vehicles are now not a threat to the unfortified east Avdiivka area anymore, where, if you recall, the russians after running low on tanks ended up driving their meat on btr82s and btr80s into Bradley ambushes, who only sustained losses from lancets, not russian armor. 
Long story short without a widespread infantry portable adoption of EW *+* a 2nd coming of massive shell shortage that would target these EW, russia without vehicles will be stuck in ww1 with unwinnable, massively stacked for the defender conditions, that over the long or short term will end up in a 2nd Afghanistan.
Do note the same applies to the ZSU, as the southern offensive deeply showed with similar wrecked coloumns and minefield carnage that dwindled the handful of Bradleys and leopards so it was reverted back to single squads clearing trenches and grinding forward, at a similar pace (minus the 300 drone FPV clips on russian infantry stuck on a field we see now almost every day)

Fresh UKR florks meme about US allowing to strike Russian soil only from Kharkiv oblast
UKR florks carry road sign "Kharkiv oblast" (means they are going to set it, "expanding" Kharkiv oblast on Sumy or Chernihiv oblasts)
US flork: "Turn back the sign on it place!" 

In my view replacing the 120mm gun with a 105mm howitzer is the way to go. Powerful HE, 17+km range, lots of rounds in the vehicle and the option of direct fire if required. The fragments are not great against heavy vehicles but drones, 120mm mortars, 155mm, ATGMs etc can deal with them anyway. 
Tank on tank engagements are basically over. No point in carrying a hyper-specialised APFSD thrower any more: carry a heavy atgm (possibly hypersonic) as a backup weapon for that rare engagement just in case.

Comments by some Ukrainian crews on the M1 Abrams tank. This is anecdata, obviously.
Poor protection vs drones: “Its armor is not sufficient for this moment. It doesn’t protect the crew. For real, today this is the war of drones." Condensation is a powerful enemy?: "They also complain of how, in rain or fog, condensation can fry the electronics inside the vehicle." Ammunition performs poorly in the  anti-personnel role: “What we have is more for direct tank-to-tank fights, which happens very rarely. Much more often we work as artillery. You need to take apart a tree-line or a building. We had a case when we fired 17 rounds into a house and it was still standing.” https://www.yahoo.com/news/soldiers-ukraine-us-supplied-tanks-120146535.html

I'll be honest I don't believe that Ukraine will be able to retake all it's land during this war anymore(one of those cases I really want to be proven wrong), and the folks who will be under Russian occupation will be in my prayers.
I just hope that when we do get that shaky ceasefire with Russia which was brought up here before, we will do the right thing and get Ukraine into NATO ASAP.
A clear message needs to be sent to Russia. If they try attacking Ukraine again they don't just mess with Ukraine, they mess with the whole transatlantic community.

With half a million Russian casualties, and every square kilometer that Ukraine has given up looking more cratered than the Somme, this is the single dumbest bit of Russian propaganda you have spouted. That is a strong statement, too. You are spouting nonsense at a group of people who have been paying attention since the beginning. Try harder, or go away.

Substitute "patriots and local elites" for the loaded term "nationalists"  and you would be right; that is the way every conquest happens. Eliminate those who care about the idea of their nation and those who have ambitions to lead in their community and the rest will follow whoever is the new tyrant just to save their lives and households. Then in a couple of generations an effective genocide may happen because that "majority" will be happy to speak Russian and take orders from the new governor appointed from Moscow, and they will be Ukrainians no more. That is the Russian way since the Middle Ages - probably the first victims were the Ugric tribes in the North, then various Turkic groups which just started to settle down South-East of Moscow in XVI century, and then the Russians went on their merry way from Vladivostok to Królewiec doing exactly the same thing.
This is also exactly why some nations do not want to surrender and go on fighting - because that group of "nationalists" who care about more than the next meal is large enough to overcome the objections of the indifferent others.
And on a more personal note - that "argument" is in essence an appeal to surrender to tyranny, based on cowardice, pusillanimity and stupidity. It made me actually (slightly) nauseous to read something so nakedly depraved 🤮.
 

It might work.  This “peace summit” really reads like a push to have allies sign onto an “unconditional Russian surrender” situation. I am not sure the allies think that is realistic or are on board for another 10-20 year war.  I think we all know Russia is full of it, but it may provide an opportunity to Korean Peninsula this thing leaving Russia to become the new NK - bat sh#t crazy but contained.

We have heard this many times.
Hitler's successor might be worse
Saddam's successor might be worse
Pol Pot's successor might be worse.
If the successor was worse they would already found a way to take over!
So no, the successor will not be worse. 

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/defining-success-in-ukraine/
Article from aspi that I think is relevant here. Seems to follow some the thoughts here.

That’s why Putin has to be stopped on the battlefield first. Ukraine needs to figure out where it will make a stand, and then turn that place into a charnel house for the Russians. Make it so that the Russians shake in their boots at the mere suggestion of going within 5 km of the main battle line.
But if the goal remains to reclaim all its territory (one clearly unachievable by now) then both Allies and the Ukrainian people themselves will be demoralized by essentially being in an unwinnable situation. By making the goal realistic, but also desirable, there is an incentive to achieve something that will bring an end to the carnage in the most favourable way that can be realistically achieved.
Furthermore, it will be a lot easier to convince western publics to support aid to Ukraine if there’s a clear end state in sight that is within the capability of the Ukrainian state to bring about.

From a Ukrainian Telegram, quoting mostly from a NYT article:
“I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves” - Budanov in an interview by the New York Times
“The situation is on the edge,” Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said in a video call from a bunker in Kharkiv. “Every hour this situation moves toward critical.”
His bleak assessment echoed those of other Ukrainian officers in recent days, that the country’s military prospects were dimming. In addition to being outnumbered, the Ukrainians face critical shortages of weapons, especially artillery ammunition, and $60.8 billion worth of arms from the United States — approved three weeks ago after months of congressional gridlock — has barely begun to arrive.
Like most Ukrainian officials and military experts, General Budanov said he believes the Russian attacks in the northeast are intended to stretch Ukraine’s already thin reserves of soldiers and divert them from fighting elsewhere.
That is exactly what is happening now, he acknowledged. He said the Ukrainian army was trying to redirect troops from other front line areas to shore up its defenses in the northeast, but that it had been difficult to find the personnel.
“All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar,” he said, referring to a Ukrainian stronghold about 120 miles farther south that Russian troops have assaulted in recent weeks. “I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves.”
General Budanov assessed that Ukrainian forces would be able to shore up their lines and stabilize the front within the next few days. But he expects Russia to launch a new attack further north of Kharkiv, in the Sumy region.
Full article here (without Paywall)
- Note: After this article was published, Budanov has stated that the expected russian attack in Sumy has not taken place as the enemy had originally planned, due to "problems" that they have experienced in Kharkiv.
You would think that admitting you have no more reserves left is something you don’t want to announce to the world, but I suppose they reckon Russia more or less knows anyways.
That aside, it’s not looking great. By all accounts it seems that Ukraine has committed most or all of its reserve troops, while Russia can still throw quite a bit more into the fight.
We talk in this thread about war exhaustion,  and unless something dramatically changes it‘s looking increasingly likely that Ukraine and not Russia will run up short first. For all of Russia‘s internal problems, it seems their government‘s crude but persistent ruthlessness is working. They may lose scores of tanks each week and their men may die like dogs, but they keep finding more.
In Ukraine there is lacking a similar kind of ruthlessness. Zaluzhny said last year he needed 500k men, by the looks of things on the frontline right now he was probably right. But it seems like the Ukrainian government and military leadership are either unwilling to accept the realities on the ground, or aren’t prepared to do something that could potentially push the country’s internal situation to potentially unstable levels.
Is there a solution to all this? Honestly it’s hard to say. The Ukrainians I know seem to be mistrustful of their government and pessimistic of the overall situation. And unless they get a lot more men, or the tactical situation swings greatly in their favour, then I’m not sure if they can ever stop the Russians from steadily munching away at their territory so long as the fighting continues.
Regardless of the outcome, it’s times like these where I’m sure every NATO country is breathing a sigh of relief to have the collective support of many other powerful countries at their back to deal with the Russian menace. Because if the war in Ukraine is proving anything, it’s that there may be not a single European country that can indefinitely hold back the Russian tide with its own reserves of manpower.
But I maintain that if every NATO country got involved in a conflict with Russia, offensive or defensive, that the latter would be wrecked as devastatingly as they deserve…

From a Ukrainian Telegram, quoting mostly from a NYT article:
“I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves” - Budanov in an interview by the New York Times
“The situation is on the edge,” Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said in a video call from a bunker in Kharkiv. “Every hour this situation moves toward critical.”
His bleak assessment echoed those of other Ukrainian officers in recent days, that the country’s military prospects were dimming. In addition to being outnumbered, the Ukrainians face critical shortages of weapons, especially artillery ammunition, and $60.8 billion worth of arms from the United States — approved three weeks ago after months of congressional gridlock — has barely begun to arrive.
Like most Ukrainian officials and military experts, General Budanov said he believes the Russian attacks in the northeast are intended to stretch Ukraine’s already thin reserves of soldiers and divert them from fighting elsewhere.
That is exactly what is happening now, he acknowledged. He said the Ukrainian army was trying to redirect troops from other front line areas to shore up its defenses in the northeast, but that it had been difficult to find the personnel.
“All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar,” he said, referring to a Ukrainian stronghold about 120 miles farther south that Russian troops have assaulted in recent weeks. “I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves.”
General Budanov assessed that Ukrainian forces would be able to shore up their lines and stabilize the front within the next few days. But he expects Russia to launch a new attack further north of Kharkiv, in the Sumy region.
Full article here (without Paywall)
- Note: After this article was published, Budanov has stated that the expected russian attack in Sumy has not taken place as the enemy had originally planned, due to "problems" that they have experienced in Kharkiv.
You would think that admitting you have no more reserves left is something you don’t want to announce to the world, but I suppose they reckon Russia more or less knows anyways.
That aside, it’s not looking great. By all accounts it seems that Ukraine has committed most or all of its reserve troops, while Russia can still throw quite a bit more into the fight.
We talk in this thread about war exhaustion,  and unless something dramatically changes it‘s looking increasingly likely that Ukraine and not Russia will run up short first. For all of Russia‘s internal problems, it seems their government‘s crude but persistent ruthlessness is working. They may lose scores of tanks each week and their men may die like dogs, but they keep finding more.
In Ukraine there is lacking a similar kind of ruthlessness. Zaluzhny said last year he needed 500k men, by the looks of things on the frontline right now he was probably right. But it seems like the Ukrainian government and military leadership are either unwilling to accept the realities on the ground, or aren’t prepared to do something that could potentially push the country’s internal situation to potentially unstable levels.
Is there a solution to all this? Honestly it’s hard to say. The Ukrainians I know seem to be mistrustful of their government and pessimistic of the overall situation. And unless they get a lot more men, or the tactical situation swings greatly in their favour, then I’m not sure if they can ever stop the Russians from steadily munching away at their territory so long as the fighting continues.
Regardless of the outcome, it’s times like these where I’m sure every NATO country is breathing a sigh of relief to have the collective support of many other powerful countries at their back to deal with the Russian menace. Because if the war in Ukraine is proving anything, it’s that there may be not a single European country that can indefinitely hold back the Russian tide with its own reserves of manpower.
But I maintain that if every NATO country got involved in a conflict with Russia, offensive or defensive, that the latter would be wrecked as devastatingly as they deserve…

From a Ukrainian Telegram, quoting mostly from a NYT article:
“I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves” - Budanov in an interview by the New York Times
“The situation is on the edge,” Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said in a video call from a bunker in Kharkiv. “Every hour this situation moves toward critical.”
His bleak assessment echoed those of other Ukrainian officers in recent days, that the country’s military prospects were dimming. In addition to being outnumbered, the Ukrainians face critical shortages of weapons, especially artillery ammunition, and $60.8 billion worth of arms from the United States — approved three weeks ago after months of congressional gridlock — has barely begun to arrive.
Like most Ukrainian officials and military experts, General Budanov said he believes the Russian attacks in the northeast are intended to stretch Ukraine’s already thin reserves of soldiers and divert them from fighting elsewhere.
That is exactly what is happening now, he acknowledged. He said the Ukrainian army was trying to redirect troops from other front line areas to shore up its defenses in the northeast, but that it had been difficult to find the personnel.
“All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar,” he said, referring to a Ukrainian stronghold about 120 miles farther south that Russian troops have assaulted in recent weeks. “I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves.”
General Budanov assessed that Ukrainian forces would be able to shore up their lines and stabilize the front within the next few days. But he expects Russia to launch a new attack further north of Kharkiv, in the Sumy region.
Full article here (without Paywall)
- Note: After this article was published, Budanov has stated that the expected russian attack in Sumy has not taken place as the enemy had originally planned, due to "problems" that they have experienced in Kharkiv.
You would think that admitting you have no more reserves left is something you don’t want to announce to the world, but I suppose they reckon Russia more or less knows anyways.
That aside, it’s not looking great. By all accounts it seems that Ukraine has committed most or all of its reserve troops, while Russia can still throw quite a bit more into the fight.
We talk in this thread about war exhaustion,  and unless something dramatically changes it‘s looking increasingly likely that Ukraine and not Russia will run up short first. For all of Russia‘s internal problems, it seems their government‘s crude but persistent ruthlessness is working. They may lose scores of tanks each week and their men may die like dogs, but they keep finding more.
In Ukraine there is lacking a similar kind of ruthlessness. Zaluzhny said last year he needed 500k men, by the looks of things on the frontline right now he was probably right. But it seems like the Ukrainian government and military leadership are either unwilling to accept the realities on the ground, or aren’t prepared to do something that could potentially push the country’s internal situation to potentially unstable levels.
Is there a solution to all this? Honestly it’s hard to say. The Ukrainians I know seem to be mistrustful of their government and pessimistic of the overall situation. And unless they get a lot more men, or the tactical situation swings greatly in their favour, then I’m not sure if they can ever stop the Russians from steadily munching away at their territory so long as the fighting continues.
Regardless of the outcome, it’s times like these where I’m sure every NATO country is breathing a sigh of relief to have the collective support of many other powerful countries at their back to deal with the Russian menace. Because if the war in Ukraine is proving anything, it’s that there may be not a single European country that can indefinitely hold back the Russian tide with its own reserves of manpower.
But I maintain that if every NATO country got involved in a conflict with Russia, offensive or defensive, that the latter would be wrecked as devastatingly as they deserve…

From a Ukrainian Telegram, quoting mostly from a NYT article:
“I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves” - Budanov in an interview by the New York Times
“The situation is on the edge,” Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said in a video call from a bunker in Kharkiv. “Every hour this situation moves toward critical.”
His bleak assessment echoed those of other Ukrainian officers in recent days, that the country’s military prospects were dimming. In addition to being outnumbered, the Ukrainians face critical shortages of weapons, especially artillery ammunition, and $60.8 billion worth of arms from the United States — approved three weeks ago after months of congressional gridlock — has barely begun to arrive.
Like most Ukrainian officials and military experts, General Budanov said he believes the Russian attacks in the northeast are intended to stretch Ukraine’s already thin reserves of soldiers and divert them from fighting elsewhere.
That is exactly what is happening now, he acknowledged. He said the Ukrainian army was trying to redirect troops from other front line areas to shore up its defenses in the northeast, but that it had been difficult to find the personnel.
“All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar,” he said, referring to a Ukrainian stronghold about 120 miles farther south that Russian troops have assaulted in recent weeks. “I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves.”
General Budanov assessed that Ukrainian forces would be able to shore up their lines and stabilize the front within the next few days. But he expects Russia to launch a new attack further north of Kharkiv, in the Sumy region.
Full article here (without Paywall)
- Note: After this article was published, Budanov has stated that the expected russian attack in Sumy has not taken place as the enemy had originally planned, due to "problems" that they have experienced in Kharkiv.
You would think that admitting you have no more reserves left is something you don’t want to announce to the world, but I suppose they reckon Russia more or less knows anyways.
That aside, it’s not looking great. By all accounts it seems that Ukraine has committed most or all of its reserve troops, while Russia can still throw quite a bit more into the fight.
We talk in this thread about war exhaustion,  and unless something dramatically changes it‘s looking increasingly likely that Ukraine and not Russia will run up short first. For all of Russia‘s internal problems, it seems their government‘s crude but persistent ruthlessness is working. They may lose scores of tanks each week and their men may die like dogs, but they keep finding more.
In Ukraine there is lacking a similar kind of ruthlessness. Zaluzhny said last year he needed 500k men, by the looks of things on the frontline right now he was probably right. But it seems like the Ukrainian government and military leadership are either unwilling to accept the realities on the ground, or aren’t prepared to do something that could potentially push the country’s internal situation to potentially unstable levels.
Is there a solution to all this? Honestly it’s hard to say. The Ukrainians I know seem to be mistrustful of their government and pessimistic of the overall situation. And unless they get a lot more men, or the tactical situation swings greatly in their favour, then I’m not sure if they can ever stop the Russians from steadily munching away at their territory so long as the fighting continues.
Regardless of the outcome, it’s times like these where I’m sure every NATO country is breathing a sigh of relief to have the collective support of many other powerful countries at their back to deal with the Russian menace. Because if the war in Ukraine is proving anything, it’s that there may be not a single European country that can indefinitely hold back the Russian tide with its own reserves of manpower.
But I maintain that if every NATO country got involved in a conflict with Russia, offensive or defensive, that the latter would be wrecked as devastatingly as they deserve…

From a Ukrainian Telegram, quoting mostly from a NYT article:
“I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves” - Budanov in an interview by the New York Times
“The situation is on the edge,” Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said in a video call from a bunker in Kharkiv. “Every hour this situation moves toward critical.”
His bleak assessment echoed those of other Ukrainian officers in recent days, that the country’s military prospects were dimming. In addition to being outnumbered, the Ukrainians face critical shortages of weapons, especially artillery ammunition, and $60.8 billion worth of arms from the United States — approved three weeks ago after months of congressional gridlock — has barely begun to arrive.
Like most Ukrainian officials and military experts, General Budanov said he believes the Russian attacks in the northeast are intended to stretch Ukraine’s already thin reserves of soldiers and divert them from fighting elsewhere.
That is exactly what is happening now, he acknowledged. He said the Ukrainian army was trying to redirect troops from other front line areas to shore up its defenses in the northeast, but that it had been difficult to find the personnel.
“All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar,” he said, referring to a Ukrainian stronghold about 120 miles farther south that Russian troops have assaulted in recent weeks. “I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves.”
General Budanov assessed that Ukrainian forces would be able to shore up their lines and stabilize the front within the next few days. But he expects Russia to launch a new attack further north of Kharkiv, in the Sumy region.
Full article here (without Paywall)
- Note: After this article was published, Budanov has stated that the expected russian attack in Sumy has not taken place as the enemy had originally planned, due to "problems" that they have experienced in Kharkiv.
You would think that admitting you have no more reserves left is something you don’t want to announce to the world, but I suppose they reckon Russia more or less knows anyways.
That aside, it’s not looking great. By all accounts it seems that Ukraine has committed most or all of its reserve troops, while Russia can still throw quite a bit more into the fight.
We talk in this thread about war exhaustion,  and unless something dramatically changes it‘s looking increasingly likely that Ukraine and not Russia will run up short first. For all of Russia‘s internal problems, it seems their government‘s crude but persistent ruthlessness is working. They may lose scores of tanks each week and their men may die like dogs, but they keep finding more.
In Ukraine there is lacking a similar kind of ruthlessness. Zaluzhny said last year he needed 500k men, by the looks of things on the frontline right now he was probably right. But it seems like the Ukrainian government and military leadership are either unwilling to accept the realities on the ground, or aren’t prepared to do something that could potentially push the country’s internal situation to potentially unstable levels.
Is there a solution to all this? Honestly it’s hard to say. The Ukrainians I know seem to be mistrustful of their government and pessimistic of the overall situation. And unless they get a lot more men, or the tactical situation swings greatly in their favour, then I’m not sure if they can ever stop the Russians from steadily munching away at their territory so long as the fighting continues.
Regardless of the outcome, it’s times like these where I’m sure every NATO country is breathing a sigh of relief to have the collective support of many other powerful countries at their back to deal with the Russian menace. Because if the war in Ukraine is proving anything, it’s that there may be not a single European country that can indefinitely hold back the Russian tide with its own reserves of manpower.
But I maintain that if every NATO country got involved in a conflict with Russia, offensive or defensive, that the latter would be wrecked as devastatingly as they deserve…

From a Ukrainian Telegram, quoting mostly from a NYT article:
“I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves” - Budanov in an interview by the New York Times
“The situation is on the edge,” Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said in a video call from a bunker in Kharkiv. “Every hour this situation moves toward critical.”
His bleak assessment echoed those of other Ukrainian officers in recent days, that the country’s military prospects were dimming. In addition to being outnumbered, the Ukrainians face critical shortages of weapons, especially artillery ammunition, and $60.8 billion worth of arms from the United States — approved three weeks ago after months of congressional gridlock — has barely begun to arrive.
Like most Ukrainian officials and military experts, General Budanov said he believes the Russian attacks in the northeast are intended to stretch Ukraine’s already thin reserves of soldiers and divert them from fighting elsewhere.
That is exactly what is happening now, he acknowledged. He said the Ukrainian army was trying to redirect troops from other front line areas to shore up its defenses in the northeast, but that it had been difficult to find the personnel.
“All of our forces are either here or in Chasiv Yar,” he said, referring to a Ukrainian stronghold about 120 miles farther south that Russian troops have assaulted in recent weeks. “I’ve used everything we have. Unfortunately, we don’t have anyone else in the reserves.”
General Budanov assessed that Ukrainian forces would be able to shore up their lines and stabilize the front within the next few days. But he expects Russia to launch a new attack further north of Kharkiv, in the Sumy region.
Full article here (without Paywall)
- Note: After this article was published, Budanov has stated that the expected russian attack in Sumy has not taken place as the enemy had originally planned, due to "problems" that they have experienced in Kharkiv.
You would think that admitting you have no more reserves left is something you don’t want to announce to the world, but I suppose they reckon Russia more or less knows anyways.
That aside, it’s not looking great. By all accounts it seems that Ukraine has committed most or all of its reserve troops, while Russia can still throw quite a bit more into the fight.
We talk in this thread about war exhaustion,  and unless something dramatically changes it‘s looking increasingly likely that Ukraine and not Russia will run up short first. For all of Russia‘s internal problems, it seems their government‘s crude but persistent ruthlessness is working. They may lose scores of tanks each week and their men may die like dogs, but they keep finding more.
In Ukraine there is lacking a similar kind of ruthlessness. Zaluzhny said last year he needed 500k men, by the looks of things on the frontline right now he was probably right. But it seems like the Ukrainian government and military leadership are either unwilling to accept the realities on the ground, or aren’t prepared to do something that could potentially push the country’s internal situation to potentially unstable levels.
Is there a solution to all this? Honestly it’s hard to say. The Ukrainians I know seem to be mistrustful of their government and pessimistic of the overall situation. And unless they get a lot more men, or the tactical situation swings greatly in their favour, then I’m not sure if they can ever stop the Russians from steadily munching away at their territory so long as the fighting continues.
Regardless of the outcome, it’s times like these where I’m sure every NATO country is breathing a sigh of relief to have the collective support of many other powerful countries at their back to deal with the Russian menace. Because if the war in Ukraine is proving anything, it’s that there may be not a single European country that can indefinitely hold back the Russian tide with its own reserves of manpower.
But I maintain that if every NATO country got involved in a conflict with Russia, offensive or defensive, that the latter would be wrecked as devastatingly as they deserve…

Tatarigami_UA on the Kharkiv situation:
The attack was not unexpected: HUR representative Andriy Yusov stated that the enemy's actions began according to a known schedule that had been communicated to authorities, leadership, and command. My team has publicly reported about dispersed units along the border as well Given the current lack of information, it's too early to draw definitive conclusions. However, the abandonment of positions and advancement beyond the grey zone indicates brigade leadership's and the strategic command's inability to react to threats despite having intel This is the result of systematic issues stemming from a lack of understanding of brigade capabilities and readiness, along with problems in personnel training, leading to an inability to effectively position and allocate resources when needed. The delayed aid from the West, particularly in terms of artillery and artillery shells, is indeed contributing to the problem. However, this issue is not the core problem in this case, and blaming the West for it is counter-productive. https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1790086938046710097

I keep thinking that.  They'll run out of arty tubes, IFVs & tanks, we think, based on the loss rates.  But I also keep questioning whether we are being the german general staff circa 1941/2, where we continually think they are running out of everything but turns out.....
 

54th Brigade (K-2 drone unit) stops a 3 wave mechanised attack of more than a dozen vehicles.
Video has good english CC translation and explanations
 

OK, my answer to the question "what is Putin actually up to?" (which should be read with a massive dose of skepticism, as it involves making a theory of mind of man having massively more information and usually thinking in massively different way than I; i.e., a wild guess)
1. Putin thinks the war will end through Donald Trump becoming the President of the US and successfully implementing his plan to pressure Ukraine politically into armistice on the basis of status quo in early 2025.
2. Therefore, the war has a probable end date in early 2025 which is based  on external political considerations and not dependent on any actions of Ukraine or Russia. All territorial gains must occur in 2024 and on the other hand, the risk of all losses is also limited in time to 2024. Timeline after early 2025 does not matter much - Russia is not worried about NATO or the Ukraine rekindling the conflict at any reasonable time after 2024, and even if its army is generally wrecked, it thinks it will always be beenough to defend the armistice line (even provided that NATO and the UKR muster political will sufficient to even think of restarting the war). 
3. Therefore Russian army is going all in to maximise territorial gains in 2024, particularly in the Donbass area which Russia claims to be its own, but has not conquered it yet. If they are successful in Donbas or if they statemate in Donbass, they may try to do the same thing in the Zaporozhie area. They do not care about the losses, they do not care about the war materiel stocks (they know they won't be attacked) and they do not care that much about their economy either, which they think will somehow limp through the rest of 2024 anyway, and Russians will start rebuilding it in from 2025.
 

From a Ukrainian Telegram. Can’t confirm, though interesting if true. We may see more of western troops being introduced gradually into ever more direct roles.
"France secretly sent its military to Ukraine - ex-Pentagon official Stephen Bryan
According to him, about 100 Foreign Legion soldiers from the 3rd French Infantry Regiment were stationed in Slavyansk to support the 54th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They do artillery and surveillance. In total, it is planned to send about 1,500 legionnaires to Ukraine.
It is not possible to confirm that information…"

This! The National prejudice attitude that many on this forum seem to have toward Russians tends to color their comments and lead them to dehumanize and demonize the Russian people as ignorant savages who are always drunk, raping and killing babies. Yes, possibly the conscripts and prisoner “volunteers” are more brutal and resigned to their deaths than seems the norm. Can you say Igor Sikorsky, Tolstoy, Tchikovsky? Not everyone is ignorant, uneducated, and brutal. No one should be surprised by Russians who make intelligent and insightful statements. I see the same ignorant and prejudicial statements about every opponent the U.S. has ever faced. It’s much easier to kill a fellow Human being when you make that person out to be so inferior to you.

Personally I don't know how I feel about tanks being on the way out vs not but probably good to bring up these tweets. Makes sense to me, if offensives can't happen and you need something to use against enemy pushes and everything else is in short supply....is it ideal? Guess not but better than dead friendlies.
Random poster I follow but he brings up a really good point that does not just apply to Abrams but to just in general the mindset of full on conventional conflict and the amount of losses expected and the fact the West haven't had the type of playing field in forever and the last time comparable was a cakewalk (ish).
So....what was the expected tank losses in a full on conventional NATO vs USSR conflict?
 

Now let’s not suddenly forget the real reason why China has risen to power…western greed.  We exported manufacturing and every other hard/increasingly expensive job to China because they would do it for a fraction of what western workers were demanding nor was governed by pesky workplace safety regulations.  We wanted cheap everything from Tshirts to running shoes to cellphones.  We did not admit China into the WTO until 2001 and by then we were over-invested in China for our lifestyles that no one could slow that train down:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_the_World_Trade_Organization#:~:text=China became a member of,changes to the Chinese economy.
We had started this trend back in the 80s.  There was nothing altruistic or generous about any of this, it really was simply an extension of western benign (and sometimes not) imperial doctrine.  The Western Rules Based order was really designed to keep the West on top. China figured this out and used that system to rise to power.  They did it using Western money, not charitable intent.  China conducted a series of pretty radical economic reforms and the outsourced the industry we downloaded on them to places like Bangladesh and Vietnam.  They then reinvested in their own high tech and bolstered it with an historic industrial espionage campaign.
None of this was “western misguided liberalism gone wrong” it was straight up pursuit of profit and reinforcing our own consumer based economies.  By the time we realized the problem in the mid ‘00 it was too late.  No politician, even Trump, could simply “drop China”.  Since then we have seen attempts at a gradual uncoupling but we are still too dependent on Asian manufacturing and industry, the pandemic showed this in spades.  And now we are stuck.  We either keep funding Chinese rise to power or try and roll the clock back to 1960, which we can’t do with current standards of living and economic realities.
None of this was generous or high minded.  Anymore than British rule of India was.  It was a 20th century version of economic colonization, which like a lot of colonization came back around to bite.