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Machor

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  1. Like
    Machor reacted to poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This - it was a very big mistake not to march troops through Germany and have a parade in Berlin. That would have shown have shown everyone who had won and who had lost. After the war nationalists came up with the idea of ‘Dolchstoßlegende’ - that the army never lost in the field and were betrayed by the social democrats who signed Versailles. That blemished democracy in the public view right from the beginning.
    But back to Russia: there will not be a march of any foreign troops on Moscow because of nukes. That is pretty obvious. With the firm grip of the state on media the public wont accept a Russian loss of the war because nobody will tell them in first place.
    So until change comes from within, nothing will change in Russia.
    Do the sanctions help with change? Yes. Why? Consider the alternative where there are no sanctions. That will surely not create change.
    Can we create ‘directed’ sanctions that will lead to a desired (by the West) effect? I doubt that. Whatever will break that thing will be a random event that nobody thought of. We just need to make sure that there are many of those events until one ‘clicks’.
  2. Like
    Machor got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Taranis's Ukrainian counterpart pretty much doing a commercial for CAESAR: 
    Beleg already posted this, but I thought there are folks here who'd be touched with the first official Ukrainian HIMARS video's message: "MANY THANKS TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOR PROVIDING WEAPONS!": 
     
  3. Upvote
    Machor got a reaction from MOS:96B2P in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    New NYT piece on covert ops in Ukraine - the importance of medical training was something I didn't expect:
    Commando Network Coordinates Flow of Weapons in Ukraine, Officials Say
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/25/us/politics/commandos-russia-ukraine.html
    "A secretive operation involving U.S. Special Operations forces hints at the scale of the effort to assist Ukraine’s still outgunned military."
    "WASHINGTON — As Russian troops press ahead with a grinding campaign to seize eastern Ukraine, the nation’s ability to resist the onslaught depends more than ever on help from the United States and its allies — including a stealthy network of commandos and spies rushing to provide weapons, intelligence and training, according to U.S. and European officials.
    Much of this work happens outside Ukraine, at bases in Germany, France and Britain, for example. But even as the Biden administration has declared it will not deploy American troops to Ukraine, some C.I.A. personnel have continued to operate in the country secretly, mostly in the capital, Kyiv, directing much of the vast amounts of intelligence the United States is sharing with Ukrainian forces, according to current and former officials.
    At the same time, a few dozen commandos from other NATO countries, including Britain, France, Canada and Lithuania, also have been working inside Ukraine. The United States withdrew its own 150 military instructors before the war began in February, but commandos from these allies either remained or have gone in and out of the country since then, training and advising Ukrainian troops and providing an on-the-ground conduit for weapons and other aid, three U.S. officials said."
    "Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the Army’s 10th Special Forces Group, which before the war had been training Ukrainian commandos at a base in the country’s west, quietly established a coalition planning cell in Germany to coordinate military assistance to Ukrainian commandos and other Ukrainian troops. The cell has now grown to 20 nations."
    "The commandos are not on the front lines with Ukrainian troops and instead advise from headquarters in other parts of the country or remotely by encrypted communications, according to American and other Western officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. But the signs of their stealthy logistics, training and intelligence support are tangible on the battlefield.
    Several lower-level Ukrainian commanders recently expressed appreciation to the United States for intelligence gleaned from satellite imagery, which they can call up on tablet computers provided by the allies. The tablets run a battlefield mapping app that the Ukrainians use to target and attack Russian troops."
    "Still, former military officials who have been working with the Ukrainian military have expressed frustration with some of the training efforts.
    For instance, Ukrainians have struggled to evacuate soldiers wounded at the front lines. The United States could step up front-line first-aid training and advise the Ukrainians on how to set up a network of intermediate mobile hospitals to stabilize the wounded and transport them, former officials said.
    “They are losing 100 soldiers a day. That is almost like the height of the Vietnam War for us; it is terrible,” a former Trump administration official said. “And they are losing a lot of experienced people.”
    Army Green Berets in Germany recently started medical training for Ukrainian troops, who were brought out of the country for the instruction, a U.S. military official said."
    "The Ukrainian military’s most acute training problem right now is that it is losing its most battle-hardened and well-trained forces, according to former American officials who have worked with the Ukrainians." [my emphasis]
  4. Like
    Machor got a reaction from Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    New NYT piece on covert ops in Ukraine - the importance of medical training was something I didn't expect:
    Commando Network Coordinates Flow of Weapons in Ukraine, Officials Say
    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/25/us/politics/commandos-russia-ukraine.html
    "A secretive operation involving U.S. Special Operations forces hints at the scale of the effort to assist Ukraine’s still outgunned military."
    "WASHINGTON — As Russian troops press ahead with a grinding campaign to seize eastern Ukraine, the nation’s ability to resist the onslaught depends more than ever on help from the United States and its allies — including a stealthy network of commandos and spies rushing to provide weapons, intelligence and training, according to U.S. and European officials.
    Much of this work happens outside Ukraine, at bases in Germany, France and Britain, for example. But even as the Biden administration has declared it will not deploy American troops to Ukraine, some C.I.A. personnel have continued to operate in the country secretly, mostly in the capital, Kyiv, directing much of the vast amounts of intelligence the United States is sharing with Ukrainian forces, according to current and former officials.
    At the same time, a few dozen commandos from other NATO countries, including Britain, France, Canada and Lithuania, also have been working inside Ukraine. The United States withdrew its own 150 military instructors before the war began in February, but commandos from these allies either remained or have gone in and out of the country since then, training and advising Ukrainian troops and providing an on-the-ground conduit for weapons and other aid, three U.S. officials said."
    "Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the Army’s 10th Special Forces Group, which before the war had been training Ukrainian commandos at a base in the country’s west, quietly established a coalition planning cell in Germany to coordinate military assistance to Ukrainian commandos and other Ukrainian troops. The cell has now grown to 20 nations."
    "The commandos are not on the front lines with Ukrainian troops and instead advise from headquarters in other parts of the country or remotely by encrypted communications, according to American and other Western officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. But the signs of their stealthy logistics, training and intelligence support are tangible on the battlefield.
    Several lower-level Ukrainian commanders recently expressed appreciation to the United States for intelligence gleaned from satellite imagery, which they can call up on tablet computers provided by the allies. The tablets run a battlefield mapping app that the Ukrainians use to target and attack Russian troops."
    "Still, former military officials who have been working with the Ukrainian military have expressed frustration with some of the training efforts.
    For instance, Ukrainians have struggled to evacuate soldiers wounded at the front lines. The United States could step up front-line first-aid training and advise the Ukrainians on how to set up a network of intermediate mobile hospitals to stabilize the wounded and transport them, former officials said.
    “They are losing 100 soldiers a day. That is almost like the height of the Vietnam War for us; it is terrible,” a former Trump administration official said. “And they are losing a lot of experienced people.”
    Army Green Berets in Germany recently started medical training for Ukrainian troops, who were brought out of the country for the instruction, a U.S. military official said."
    "The Ukrainian military’s most acute training problem right now is that it is losing its most battle-hardened and well-trained forces, according to former American officials who have worked with the Ukrainians." [my emphasis]
  5. Like
    Machor got a reaction from Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukrainian Mi-8s doing flying MLRS with a ridiculously high angle - a unique advantage of this tactic. I guess one isn't safe from such a volley even in the 'grave' depth foxholes described by Haiduk above:
    Reverse cockpit-view of Ukrainian Su-25 executing low altitude combat maneuvers, giving a sense of the g-forces involved. Note the new hi-vis livery against friendly fire:
     
  6. Like
    Machor got a reaction from Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Taranis's Ukrainian counterpart pretty much doing a commercial for CAESAR: 
    Beleg already posted this, but I thought there are folks here who'd be touched with the first official Ukrainian HIMARS video's message: "MANY THANKS TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOR PROVIDING WEAPONS!": 
     
  7. Like
    Machor got a reaction from G.I. Joe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukrainian Mi-8s doing flying MLRS with a ridiculously high angle - a unique advantage of this tactic. I guess one isn't safe from such a volley even in the 'grave' depth foxholes described by Haiduk above:
    Reverse cockpit-view of Ukrainian Su-25 executing low altitude combat maneuvers, giving a sense of the g-forces involved. Note the new hi-vis livery against friendly fire:
     
  8. Like
    Machor got a reaction from LukeFF in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Taranis's Ukrainian counterpart pretty much doing a commercial for CAESAR: 
    Beleg already posted this, but I thought there are folks here who'd be touched with the first official Ukrainian HIMARS video's message: "MANY THANKS TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOR PROVIDING WEAPONS!": 
     
  9. Like
    Machor got a reaction from LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ukraine's 2S7 are still rocking - note the gun operating alone, as per Haiduk's previous reporting on maximum dispersion [The tweet was later corrected - it is being operated by a regular artillery unit, not TD]:
    Retreating Ukrainians got @LongLeftFlank's memo and left Shanghai Donbas surprises for the Russians:
    I wonder if Russians are able to transfer their experience from Syria, considering the Wagner presence?
  10. Like
    Machor got a reaction from LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Following up on the WaPo article I posted from, a valuable interview with Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defence Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence - his words suggest the Ukrainian military is preparing for a 'great' counteroffensive:
    Russia is conducting covert mobilisation campaign, Ukraine spy chief says
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-is-conducting-covert-mobilisation-campaign-ukraine-spy-chief-2022-06-25/
    "KYIV, June 25 (Reuters) - Russia is using its reserve forces in a covert mobilisation to replenish its ranks in eastern Ukraine and there is no point in simply waiting for its offensive potential to fizzle out, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency said on Saturday.
    Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence, told Reuters in an interview in Kyiv that he believed Ukraine could only achieve a victory against Russia through military force.
    "The strategy is very simple. Stabilise the situation. Receive the required amount of equipment and prepare the required amount of forces and means to start the counteroffensive to return all our territory," he said.
    "We shouldn't wait for a miracle that they will tire and stop wanting to fight and so on. We will win back our territory as a result of our counteroffensive," he said.
    He said that 330,000 personnel were involved in Russia's operations in Ukraine, a third of its entire armed forces, a figure he added also included non-combat personnel such as logistics staff.
    "The main part of this number is the combat element and that is more than 50% of what Russia has at the moment," he said.
    He said was calm about the possibility of Russia eventually openly announcing a mobilisation as it would mean President Vladimir Putin having to face awkward questions at home.
    "They really fear this - this is the main reason why the mobilisation is happening in a hidden way, particular by using (reservists)," he said.
    "The military units that took part on Feb. 24 and those same military units now are in most cases on their second and in some cases even their third group of personnel," he said. "These are not the well-trained people who were prepared for many years.""
  11. Like
    Machor reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I was also wandering the same. Read somewhee that most of the cadre of PMC is still in Africa/Syria and guys who are fighting in Ukraine are mostly fresh mercenaries. Perhaps their experiances from Syria are not that valid in this war anyway- they mainly did communication, training, security services and maybe small raids in Middle East, not real war against determined conventional army.
    Ok, sheer brutallity and lack of manners on Ukrainian side this time...😉
  12. Upvote
    Machor got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Taranis's Ukrainian counterpart pretty much doing a commercial for CAESAR: 
    Beleg already posted this, but I thought there are folks here who'd be touched with the first official Ukrainian HIMARS video's message: "MANY THANKS TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOR PROVIDING WEAPONS!": 
     
  13. Like
    Machor got a reaction from Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Taranis's Ukrainian counterpart pretty much doing a commercial for CAESAR: 
    Beleg already posted this, but I thought there are folks here who'd be touched with the first official Ukrainian HIMARS video's message: "MANY THANKS TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOR PROVIDING WEAPONS!": 
     
  14. Like
    Machor reacted to CAZmaj in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russia did have Belenko  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Belenko and Zuyev https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Zuyev_(pilot)
  15. Upvote
    Machor reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Battlefront.com
    Here is some recommendations from UKR frontline soldier for your collection
    ATTENTION TO ALL, WHO FIRST TIME COMES TO EASTERN FRONT
    1. Enemy has significant advantage in aviation and artillery.
    2. There are no more stupid conscripts, but really trainned murderers, whick know own work
    3. Our positions have been betraying by locals and drones ajust fire
    4. Vehicles are target #1
    RECOMMENDAIONS FOR DOGFACE
    1. Dig in deep, but never wide.
    2. Dig in in the places with additional protection (tree) or with obstacles for enemy artillery (hill,railwau embarkment)
    3. Dig several positions, join its after in the trench (if enemy allow you to do this)
    4. Do not concentrate many people in one shelter - no more 2-3
    5. For rest and cover to dig a grave. Yes, a grave with steps (on the photo) for two. While the first on position, the second rests in the grave, then change.
    6. Evacuation point must be maximally hidden, to make a pathway and the hole for aid. In the hole only combat medic have to work, you shouldn't be there.
    7. Do not bring with you neither too much ammunitions nor any other supply - its betrays you. Get out the trash - bury even cigarette butts.
    8. Prepare good off-road jeep, take away all superflous, take away lights and give NV device to the driver. Let he stays in 5 km from your positions. This will save most of your WIAs.
    9. Ammunition and supply delivers when jeep drives to take WIAs or if you have a need in resupply. Two days reserve of ammunition and supply for comany have to be always near the jeep. 
    10. BMPs and BTRs are also have to be in the rear, dug in deeply and disguished or hidden. They drive to the battle only and dont's carry people! Your trucks you can shot out yourself, thus will be less victims. But better hand over its to artillerists. 
    11. Comms, steady encriptes comms and interaction with tanks and artillery. Infantry finds targets, recons ajust arty with drones, arty fires. But artillerists are people too and they also primary target for the enemy. They will not stand-by continuously and they also have a limit of ammunition and supply. 
    12. Do not deploy on infantry positions ATGMs or MANPADs. Deployits aside or behind, but never on positions. If this stuff works at least once, your position will grounded.  
    13. Most important!!!! The time for supply it's twilight (dawn or dusk). Safe time you will understand yourself.  And do this with jeeps with engine volume no more 2,5 l
    14. Despite on written above, the war is dictating own rules. At this war the best are speed and mobility. And remember - they don't know how much of you, until you expose yourself. And during this time eliminate as more of orcs as possible, while they will be probe. Best way - to shot, when you see the enemy, and not hear his bullets. In this way they check your nerves. When the come close, try to kill as more as possible in order they will not call or adjust own artillery, because without accurate adjustment their arty is skew and only something random can hit your positin.   
     
    The "grave with steps" for R&R
     
  16. Upvote
    Machor reacted to FancyCat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I wonder how useful it would be to train soldiers without fear of missile attacks? Ukraine needs to conduct training in secrecy, with troops and instructors divided in such a manner to avoid losing significant numbers should a portion be struck. Take them out of Ukraine, truck them just to Poland even and that fear washes away, and you can train them without fear of losing any of them. (And probably in more closer conditions and bigger class sizes)
    Mind you, while it's only the UK offering, with how previous offers go, the rest of NATO will participate, imagine significant numbers of Ukrainian troops getting training in NATO arms in safe countries without fear of attack. We already know a big reason why Ukraine cannot take advantage of all NATO offers, is the need to train, train them in country and all the prior secrecy mentioned, including safeguarding significant assets has to occur. Move them into NATO territory, the ones who train, more of them can get to the front lines with the slated equipment while training gets done with stuff not being sent to Ukraine. NATO trainers can replace more Ukrainian trainers than if all training occurred in country.
    Now, imagine if we could truck in Ukrainians into France, Germany, Poland, the Baltics, we could train thousands simultaneously in safe conditions. Someone who knows more, correct me if I'm wrong, but the UK offer if it can actually scale up and be useful, could harbinger large scale training in NATO territory, which has not occurred yet I believe.
    If I were Russia, I would call this a escalation, and threaten accordingly (much good it would do) cause one advantage and hope for Russia is to use their artillery to simply blast away the trained units of the Ukrainian military, even it up for more green units to face the territory seizing Russian units who are facing their own training and manpower issues.
    Maybe it's just my impression, but the safe harbor of NATO as a training ground should not be underestimated by any means. Especially when Ukraine and Ukrainians require the preservation of their mobilized manpower for victory.
  17. Like
    Machor reacted to Combatintman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Their drill and locker layouts will be up to scratch at least 😉
  18. Like
    Machor reacted to poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    German fatigues will bestow +10 on the engineering skills of the wearer. 
  19. Like
    Machor reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Interesting bits and a lot of personal stories; 'Francuz' is indeed well known celebrity-soldier of this war.
    Several other reporters hanging out with right-wing volunteer batalions also reported about lots of them carrying granades in case they get close to get captured... One soldier serving longer in ATO even engraved his own "suicide" granade in silver and covered it with elaborate quotes from Ukrainian classical authors like Schevchenko.
  20. Like
    Machor reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Veteran war correspondent Aris Roussinos spent some time with the 'Right Sector' forces in the Horlivka sector, Donetsk front.
    https://unherd.com/2022/06/on-the-frontline-with-the-right-sector-militia/
    There's a lot of worthy political ('no, we aren't nazis') discussion and human interest which I won't summarize here, but also some military bits:
    The steppe landscape of the Donbas region is rippled with folds and gullies; the copses of tall oaks that have taken root in these shallow nooks provide perfect cover for guerrilla war, an archipelago in the endless sea of grass and ripening wheat.
    The mortar team have been concealed here for two days, in a tiny salient almost fully encircled by the Russian advance.....
    “Our Intelligence found a location with Russian mortar positions and an ammunition dump.... With a quadcopter you can find a position to hit in 20 minutes — but once we fire, it will only take the Russians a couple of minutes to find our position and return fire.”
    ...the 120mm mortar belches out a dozen rounds in bursts of flame, as the quadcopter operator sits cross-legged in the grass, ordering them to adjust their elevation.... Then it’s time to go: we race to the SUV and drive off at high speed....
    The following day, Pedro, who has an ongoing social media feud with mercenaries from the far-Right Russian Wagner Group on the other side of the frontline, in which they threaten to kill each other, would show drone footage of the Russian soldiers in their trenches getting obliterated by his mortar fire on his phone, overlaid with a death metal soundtrack and cry-laughter emojis. Welcome to war in 2022.
    "Athena"

    Brought up in a Russian-speaking Catholic family in Vinnytsia, the daughter of a surgeon, Athena was a poet and English translator before the war, with a sideline writing essays for American college students. She first volunteered for frontline service at age 18, straight from university....A child prodigy, she was a contestant on the Russian version of Britain’s Brainiest Kid aged 11.
    Walking through the long grass and undergrowth of the semi-abandoned village to the local shops with the heavily armed soldiers, to buy energy drinks and ice creams from a pointedly unfriendly shopkeeper, Athena highlighted the eerie atmosphere of dereliction. “It’s weird out here, it’s almost as bad as Detroit,” she said with wonder — Athena had spent a year in a Michigan high school as an exchange student. All from elsewhere in Ukraine, they were fighting among a local population whose loyalty to the nation was not guaranteed, and found it a strange and frustrating experience.
     
  21. Like
    Machor reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russians at the morning launched about 60 surface-surface and air-surface missiles on Ukrainian territory. This is one of largest missile attacks for the last time. Most heavy was an attack on Zhytomyr oblast - 30 missiles form Belarus territory (ground launchers and aviation). 10 of them were intercepted by AD, but other struck some military objects. On this time theris a report 1 servoceman KIA, 1 WIA. 
    20 missiles struk training center Desna in Chernihiv oblast. Also form ground launchers and aviation. Reportedly no casualties for present time, but infrastructure was significantly damaged. Previous missle strike on Desna center on 17th of May killed 87 servicemen. All they were crews being trained for western 155mm artillery. After previous missile strikes on barracks, which took away several hundreds of lives high command ordered to disperse personnel no more 20 servicemen in one group. But in that day all re-trained artillerists gathered to receive sertificates and celebtrating this. They stayed in barrack just on one night and Iskander struck it. After this reportedly Desna officer in the rank of colonel was arrested by SBU, because he was a traitor and gave information to Russian side about gathering of personnel in the building. 
    Also about dozen missiles, probably Kalibr, were launched at Yavoriv training and logistic center in L'viv oblast.  Four missiles were intercepted (two over Khmelnitskyi oblast, two over L'viv oblast) but several hit own targets.
     
     
  22. Like
    Machor reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Nice to see (formerly) our helicopters doing some work!
    (Unless I'm misunderstanding, my Polish isn't exactly good.)
  23. Like
    Machor reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    How Ukrainian troops were withdrawing from Siverodonetsk
    LPR also issued two videos  with captured UKR soldiers from Zolote-Hirske area with total number in 46 captured. 
     
  24. Like
    Machor reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Harmon Rabb
    Here is second part of "over jungle flight" with more Vietnam vibes (lower video)  Soon maybe some old PBRs will come %)
     
     
  25. Upvote
    Machor reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Found interesting attempt of LDNR volunteers to publish first version of drone manual. I roughly translated it so you can get a snippet at LDNR drone operations. AFAIK originally it was UKR tactics but LDNR learned them and adopted. BTW as you can see, they started an unofficial program of training RU regulars. In square brackets my own comments.
    @Battlefront.com FYI
     
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