danfrodo

This is a Ukraine war forum, not "open mic night for arrogant narcissists".  Your spiel is so classic, you know lots of 'facts', some actually true, but mostly not.  So you strut like a f--ing rooster "what about article X of broken treaty Y!".  Yeah, what about it?  What is actually happening is mass murder, mass destruction, nuclear extortion and a general threat to world peace the the world economy.  How does minsk treaty language matter when one party physically invaded the other and is actively killing its people and trying to enslave the entire nation?  
But I guess you're right, we need to start seeing things from Putin's point of view, he was very oppressed and had no choice but to fight back.  I am sure we could all develop  a more balanced view by sympathizing with mass murderers more often.  More 'what abouts' and less paying attention to the horrific reality of Putin's choices, day after day, is what's in order -- thanks Dude, I am feeling so much more enlightened.

This is a Ukraine war forum, not "open mic night for arrogant narcissists".  Your spiel is so classic, you know lots of 'facts', some actually true, but mostly not.  So you strut like a f--ing rooster "what about article X of broken treaty Y!".  Yeah, what about it?  What is actually happening is mass murder, mass destruction, nuclear extortion and a general threat to world peace the the world economy.  How does minsk treaty language matter when one party physically invaded the other and is actively killing its people and trying to enslave the entire nation?  
But I guess you're right, we need to start seeing things from Putin's point of view, he was very oppressed and had no choice but to fight back.  I am sure we could all develop  a more balanced view by sympathizing with mass murderers more often.  More 'what abouts' and less paying attention to the horrific reality of Putin's choices, day after day, is what's in order -- thanks Dude, I am feeling so much more enlightened.

Once again I feel like a member of the german general staff, circa 1941-42.  "look at these losses, they can't possibly sustain.....".   Yet now, like then, somehow they are still shelling UKR positions, every day all day.  Be nice if we could UKR some more shells & tubes for firing back.....
 

Once again I feel like a member of the german general staff, circa 1941-42.  "look at these losses, they can't possibly sustain.....".   Yet now, like then, somehow they are still shelling UKR positions, every day all day.  Be nice if we could UKR some more shells & tubes for firing back.....
 

On victory and defeat - because it is the basis of so much “proof” on the opposing sides of this thing.  In warfare victory and defeat are very slippery concepts.  One can win a war by all metrics and wind up losing in the long run (see European Allies after WW1 and 2).  The vice versa is also possible (see Japan).  So whenever someone jumps in with the “Ukraine is obviously losing, Russia is winning” or vice versa, without clearly defining what that means, I get suspicious.
For now the best way to try and determine what victory/defeat means in this war, one needs to come to a common understanding of what the initial political and strategic goals of this war for each side were and were not.
When I am looking at the “winning/losing” equation I am using the following objectives.
For Ukraine:
- the survival of the state as independent and sovereign.
- the creation of a narrative of effective resolve and resistance that draws in international support.
- shape and set the conditions for enduring security integrity at wars end (this one is key to effective reconstruction and recovery).
For Russia:
- the complete political absorption control of Ukraine as a vassal state or sub-state.
- a clear demonstration of Russian power within its Near Abroad designed to push back on Western encroachment and reinforce the notion that other states within this region need to “stay in line”.  This one plays to both external and internal audiences.
- any and all erosion of NATO unity and resolve, as well as a draw back of US influence in the region.
For the West (we often forget we have a win/lose calculus here as well):
- A clear demonstration of the western rules based international order.  Russia must be forced to get back in line and face punitive measures for an illegal invasion that violates the rules we constructed.  To this end we support Ukraines objectives; however, we do not need all of them in full to achieve ours. We do need a clear demonstration of western unity and resolve as a foundational underpinning for that western rules based order.
- Any opportunities to expand western influence and control - see Sweden and Finland.
- the reduction of Russia as a security threat to Europe and globally.
- Avoid a catastrophic collapse of Russia at all costs as it would make the overall regional situation, and possibly global one much worse.
You will note that for me none of these are tied directly to lines on the ground.  I do not believe that where this war ends drive those strategic objectives (within reason of course - if Russia takes Kyiv the viability of Ukrainian state is greatly diminished).  
By my metrics, Russia has already pretty much “lost” this thing.  They can hold onto to what they have now but none of their strategic objectives are accomplished.  They end the war in worse position than when they started it.  Their only Hail Mary is that western support and attention dries up over time and they can exploit that to try and pull this one out of the dumpster.  The odds of full Russian control over Ukraine by this point are pretty damn low.  Much worse than at wars beginning.
Ukraine has two out of three, that last one of setting conditions for enduring security has not been accomplished. Ukraines long game is to enter into western economic and security mechanisms.  They definitely have earned that but we have the thorny issue of Russia still able to make trouble and project that into Ukraine.  We can live with a level of this a la South Korea, but I suspect we will need this thing to hold more water to work.
The West is doing well but we are not there yet, and things could still go bad quickly.  We definitely have shored up influence, control and unity. And we have managed to reduce Russian threats pretty significantly as the Russian military has been shattered. What we do not have are the conditions for long term stabilization. Russia is neither a zero-threat nor stable in the long term.
So to summarize…on victory/defeat so far:
Russia - nope.
Ukraine - OK, but not there yet.
West - meh, so long as we don’t blow the whole thing up.
I hope this is useful for the next time someone rolls through here with “well obviously Russia is winning” due to some headline about a tactical twitch somewhere.  They likely are not using the same metrics I do and in many cases have ulterior motives for painting this war in a certain light.

That's the thing about diseases and medicine in general.
Doctors are usually pretty good about telling whether you're alive or dead.  Usually.  In between is an extremely sliding scale, and if you can feed yourself and make to the bathroom on your own most of the time a lot of doctors will say you're fine.  Even if you won the a Nobel prize the previous week.  
And the problem with biological damage in general is that we have terrible resolution on a lot of things, and things at very tiny scales can matter a lot in how your body functions.  Other tiny things (like a virus) can do microscopic damage and then be cleared from your system so they're undetectable.  But you're still messed up because maybe a whole bunch of capillaries aren't acting the way they're supposed to.  Or your clotting system is doing weird intermittent things in your organs. Or some intermediate chemical process that people have mostly ignored, except for maybe one poorly paid graduate student, is completely broken and we won't learn that it matters for another decade.  But there's nothing chemically or macroscopically detectable (at least not without slicing you into thin sections, which would probably annoy you) because your body cleared out the actual virus a long time ago.  To get a sense of how tiny things can be and matter: at peak covid there was probably about 10 (or maybe a few tens) total kilograms of virus on the entire planet.  Biology is complicated stuff.

This is a Ukraine war forum, not "open mic night for arrogant narcissists".  Your spiel is so classic, you know lots of 'facts', some actually true, but mostly not.  So you strut like a f--ing rooster "what about article X of broken treaty Y!".  Yeah, what about it?  What is actually happening is mass murder, mass destruction, nuclear extortion and a general threat to world peace the the world economy.  How does minsk treaty language matter when one party physically invaded the other and is actively killing its people and trying to enslave the entire nation?  
But I guess you're right, we need to start seeing things from Putin's point of view, he was very oppressed and had no choice but to fight back.  I am sure we could all develop  a more balanced view by sympathizing with mass murderers more often.  More 'what abouts' and less paying attention to the horrific reality of Putin's choices, day after day, is what's in order -- thanks Dude, I am feeling so much more enlightened.

he emailed me to say he's sorry that I can't handle opposing opinions to my own.  Did he have an opposing opinion? 
1.  provably false assertions don't really fall into what I would respect as an actual opinion, it's just parroting misinformation
2. It was the usual passive aggressive troll thing where he ends w the old 'have a great day' 
Classic troll narcissistic nonsense.  And no one here can really even make sense of what he is really saying.  
Thanks @TheCaptain for handling this for us 😀

Some stuff here today.  Interesting piece about RU payola to folks in EU to spread propaganda.  I've seen reports (let's call this rumor for now) that Mike Johnson is getting campaign funds from a lobbying group funded by an RU oligarch --  I don't know this will turn out to be true, we'll see.  When we saw Tucker C, Sen. Rand Paul, et al, spewing RU talking points verbatum (sp?), it does make one wonder.  And some RU stuff blowing up -- a lot of RU stuff.  I am shocked at how I can now laugh at men being killed.  Even completely untouched by this war I am becoming jaded.  I am glad these RU soldiers won't be able to cause more murder and mayhem, but I am still surprised at how callous I have become.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/31/2232580/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Russia-s-biggest-armored-assault-of-the-war-ends-in-bavovna?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
On another subject, I lit into SFHand in an earlier post.  Probably too much.  Working 60 hr week (literally) and I take a couple minutes to pop in to get some UKR news and I have to wade thru that nonsense.  Kinda made me testy.  

He's not leaving, Steve don't ban him. And I am feed up with so much nonsense. 
I'll try for first time the ignore button. Bye SFhand, have a perfect day 🙄

Oh for God's sake, are we still engaging with this guy? 
Cmon,  that last post ("rigged elections in the US") pretty much seals the political troll label. 

he emailed me to say he's sorry that I can't handle opposing opinions to my own.  Did he have an opposing opinion? 
1.  provably false assertions don't really fall into what I would respect as an actual opinion, it's just parroting misinformation
2. It was the usual passive aggressive troll thing where he ends w the old 'have a great day' 
Classic troll narcissistic nonsense.  And no one here can really even make sense of what he is really saying.  
Thanks @TheCaptain for handling this for us 😀

That's a more polite word then I would use. 
 
Kim Jong Un is elected over and over again. Surely the Democratic People's Republic of Korea isn't a dictatorship. I mean, it's right there in the name. Kim Jong Un and his father and grandfather are simply the inheritors of the Baektu bloodline and therefore are/were chosen by the minjok of North Korea in proper, totally above board elections.

See kids, this is the problem with rejecting the "reality based community". You just become a red pilled font of balderdash.

Here's my take from reading the thread and a bunch of OSINT:
This is one where I think it's meaningful to separate "Russia winning" from "Putin's regime winning". I'd suggest that on day 1 of the war, those two were in alignment: Russia wins by absorbing a large neighboring state into its sphere of influence with only targeted bloodshed (at the ruling elite). Putin's regime wins by propping up a vision of pan-Russian nationalism and empire building that cements Putin as Czar.
On day today of the war, those visions of victory are no longer in alignment. Russia has lost - they will not absorb Ukraine into their sphere of influence with only targeted bloodshed, and have actively reinforced the global ruleset by pushing Finland and Sweden into NATO and reawakening Europe to the necessity of self-defensive capability. They've also offered the west a huge opportunity to figure out what fighting a 21st century peer war looks like.
For Putin's regime, victory looks like staying in power. And he's been far more successful at that than we collectively predicted. Even Prigozhin's coup-like thing proved a manageable threat (for reasons that are unclear to me). Somehow recon-by-meat-assault isn't provoking civil unrest, &c. &c. So that one's not a loss for Putin yet. Economy still appears to be sort of functioning? Though it's hard to see how he can keep it that way indefinitely?
For Ukraine, the day 1 objective was "remain an independent and free society". That still appears to be their objective, and they're doing a yeoman's job of that. Jury's still out, though, on what the end state looks like.

People, people, please.
It is perfectly reasonable important to ask ourselves sometimes: how do we know the world is actually a spheroid?
We all assume it is, but have you experienced it yourself? Humans are wrong with their assumptions about the world more often than they are right, did you consider this?
Now, you might have a thread full of possible hints towards a spheroid planet, and you have discussed it amongst yourself, to the best of your ability determining it does a lot look like it might be spheroid - with some people hoping that it turns out spheroid and others open that it isn't qhen things go wrong. But what if all of you are just subject to a well-known phenomenon of mass hallucinations, which especially affects those of low IQ, such like the people who are not myself?
And it gets worse when people are in a group for anlong time. They tell to each other that the world must be round, but what do they use? Physics? Optics? Geometry?
Do you know how many times these fields have been re-written again and again? By people in authority no less, who are well-known to be conspiratorial liars whenever you don't watch their fingers closely.
You might now wonder where my questions are going, but really, where would all you people end up if not someone like me, with one year of high-school philosophy under my belt, didn't engage you with aimless sophistry?
This is my last and only post. Have a good night everyone.
(You expected me to wish you a good day? Expectations subverted again sheeple! I will now leave to look at Hunter Biden's leaked nudes.)

23 plus years on this forum blown to pieces in a few short posts.  And to be honest I still have really no idea what he was going on about.  “I have doubts!”  And “I disagree”, without ever stating what his position was or was not. Weirdest flameout we have seen since Dorosh (man, there is a blast from the past.  Been so long that I am not sure I even spelled it correctly).  Well he came here to be a martyr and got what he wanted…another BFC happy customer.
 

Some stuff here today.  Interesting piece about RU payola to folks in EU to spread propaganda.  I've seen reports (let's call this rumor for now) that Mike Johnson is getting campaign funds from a lobbying group funded by an RU oligarch --  I don't know this will turn out to be true, we'll see.  When we saw Tucker C, Sen. Rand Paul, et al, spewing RU talking points verbatum (sp?), it does make one wonder.  And some RU stuff blowing up -- a lot of RU stuff.  I am shocked at how I can now laugh at men being killed.  Even completely untouched by this war I am becoming jaded.  I am glad these RU soldiers won't be able to cause more murder and mayhem, but I am still surprised at how callous I have become.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/31/2232580/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Russia-s-biggest-armored-assault-of-the-war-ends-in-bavovna?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
On another subject, I lit into SFHand in an earlier post.  Probably too much.  Working 60 hr week (literally) and I take a couple minutes to pop in to get some UKR news and I have to wade thru that nonsense.  Kinda made me testy.  

he emailed me to say he's sorry that I can't handle opposing opinions to my own.  Did he have an opposing opinion? 
1.  provably false assertions don't really fall into what I would respect as an actual opinion, it's just parroting misinformation
2. It was the usual passive aggressive troll thing where he ends w the old 'have a great day' 
Classic troll narcissistic nonsense.  And no one here can really even make sense of what he is really saying.  
Thanks @TheCaptain for handling this for us 😀

Some stuff here today.  Interesting piece about RU payola to folks in EU to spread propaganda.  I've seen reports (let's call this rumor for now) that Mike Johnson is getting campaign funds from a lobbying group funded by an RU oligarch --  I don't know this will turn out to be true, we'll see.  When we saw Tucker C, Sen. Rand Paul, et al, spewing RU talking points verbatum (sp?), it does make one wonder.  And some RU stuff blowing up -- a lot of RU stuff.  I am shocked at how I can now laugh at men being killed.  Even completely untouched by this war I am becoming jaded.  I am glad these RU soldiers won't be able to cause more murder and mayhem, but I am still surprised at how callous I have become.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/31/2232580/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Russia-s-biggest-armored-assault-of-the-war-ends-in-bavovna?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
On another subject, I lit into SFHand in an earlier post.  Probably too much.  Working 60 hr week (literally) and I take a couple minutes to pop in to get some UKR news and I have to wade thru that nonsense.  Kinda made me testy.  

Some stuff here today.  Interesting piece about RU payola to folks in EU to spread propaganda.  I've seen reports (let's call this rumor for now) that Mike Johnson is getting campaign funds from a lobbying group funded by an RU oligarch --  I don't know this will turn out to be true, we'll see.  When we saw Tucker C, Sen. Rand Paul, et al, spewing RU talking points verbatum (sp?), it does make one wonder.  And some RU stuff blowing up -- a lot of RU stuff.  I am shocked at how I can now laugh at men being killed.  Even completely untouched by this war I am becoming jaded.  I am glad these RU soldiers won't be able to cause more murder and mayhem, but I am still surprised at how callous I have become.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/31/2232580/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Russia-s-biggest-armored-assault-of-the-war-ends-in-bavovna?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
On another subject, I lit into SFHand in an earlier post.  Probably too much.  Working 60 hr week (literally) and I take a couple minutes to pop in to get some UKR news and I have to wade thru that nonsense.  Kinda made me testy.  

Some stuff here today.  Interesting piece about RU payola to folks in EU to spread propaganda.  I've seen reports (let's call this rumor for now) that Mike Johnson is getting campaign funds from a lobbying group funded by an RU oligarch --  I don't know this will turn out to be true, we'll see.  When we saw Tucker C, Sen. Rand Paul, et al, spewing RU talking points verbatum (sp?), it does make one wonder.  And some RU stuff blowing up -- a lot of RU stuff.  I am shocked at how I can now laugh at men being killed.  Even completely untouched by this war I am becoming jaded.  I am glad these RU soldiers won't be able to cause more murder and mayhem, but I am still surprised at how callous I have become.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/31/2232580/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Russia-s-biggest-armored-assault-of-the-war-ends-in-bavovna?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
On another subject, I lit into SFHand in an earlier post.  Probably too much.  Working 60 hr week (literally) and I take a couple minutes to pop in to get some UKR news and I have to wade thru that nonsense.  Kinda made me testy.  

Some stuff here today.  Interesting piece about RU payola to folks in EU to spread propaganda.  I've seen reports (let's call this rumor for now) that Mike Johnson is getting campaign funds from a lobbying group funded by an RU oligarch --  I don't know this will turn out to be true, we'll see.  When we saw Tucker C, Sen. Rand Paul, et al, spewing RU talking points verbatum (sp?), it does make one wonder.  And some RU stuff blowing up -- a lot of RU stuff.  I am shocked at how I can now laugh at men being killed.  Even completely untouched by this war I am becoming jaded.  I am glad these RU soldiers won't be able to cause more murder and mayhem, but I am still surprised at how callous I have become.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/31/2232580/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Russia-s-biggest-armored-assault-of-the-war-ends-in-bavovna?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
On another subject, I lit into SFHand in an earlier post.  Probably too much.  Working 60 hr week (literally) and I take a couple minutes to pop in to get some UKR news and I have to wade thru that nonsense.  Kinda made me testy.  

Some stuff here today.  Interesting piece about RU payola to folks in EU to spread propaganda.  I've seen reports (let's call this rumor for now) that Mike Johnson is getting campaign funds from a lobbying group funded by an RU oligarch --  I don't know this will turn out to be true, we'll see.  When we saw Tucker C, Sen. Rand Paul, et al, spewing RU talking points verbatum (sp?), it does make one wonder.  And some RU stuff blowing up -- a lot of RU stuff.  I am shocked at how I can now laugh at men being killed.  Even completely untouched by this war I am becoming jaded.  I am glad these RU soldiers won't be able to cause more murder and mayhem, but I am still surprised at how callous I have become.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/3/31/2232580/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Russia-s-biggest-armored-assault-of-the-war-ends-in-bavovna?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
On another subject, I lit into SFHand in an earlier post.  Probably too much.  Working 60 hr week (literally) and I take a couple minutes to pop in to get some UKR news and I have to wade thru that nonsense.  Kinda made me testy.  

Another idiot that thinks everyone else is an idiot.  He does the whole "look how intellectual I am" while having just previously said rightwing conspiracy stuff that has no basis in fact.  Then he poo poos 'reality based' thinking -- did you really say something that f--ing stupid?  So you base on principle -- but a principle is  utterly make-believe if it is not based on some kind of evidence-based reality.  Good lord you are as stupid as you are arrogant.  
But hey, keep going, this is really getting entertaining as you make an ever bigger fool of yourself w each post.